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TLT - Extreme Losses Ahead / Bond Market Peak March 2020Yields rising will only serve to further drive - ZN (10 Yr Futures), ZB (10 Yr Futures), and TLT into the Abyss. They have all broken down, with the 10 Yr Yield moving up significantly Friday back towards 1.8. We indicated over the past 7 Month the day of reckoning for Bonds was fast approaching. In November I doubled down with further warnings explaining in great detail the larger Issues for Bonds to reiterate the Intermediate and Long Term Risks. My Thesis for Bonds was they would become "perpetual" Instruments whereby Holders would be able to clip their Coupons but unable to redeem them one day in the not too distant Future. The Debt cannot be serviced, even with cheaper Dollars. We see the effects of all the excesses sloshing around. It will continue to choose valueless propositions outside of Real Estate, Equities, Metals, Commodities, Energy and Meta in the Wings. The Wind cried Mary over and overstating it was lunacy, Bonds would benefit in any serious Selling of Equities. In Sum, I was the fool, idiot, and wrong in the absolute. This has not happened, instead, the conventional analysis, dependent on a Paradigm that no longer exists... it failed and very badly. The Curve is not steepening. This is where the Bond Participants, Touts, and YouTube Tribe - got it 100% wrong. It is quite simple - there are Capital Stocks for rotation, Equities will eventually see inflows as Bonds continue their collapse. TLT will be decimated as will ZN and ZB. As Captial from Bonds flows to Equities once the breakdown finds Bond Buyers exiting the Complex as they realize their mistake(s) - this will serve to drive Equities far Higher for a short period of time. This will be the 5/5 of the Larger 5/5 for the Equities Complex. We will see a parabolic melt-up in Equities once this begins - after this correction completes. It will be the Fuel for the Final move up in the Equity Complex. The Federal Reserve will, at some point, go too far, make a large Policy mistake and then Equities will collapse. ________________________________________________________________________________________________ It takes time to turn a Battleship. Bonds have turned from the Historic End of their Supreme reign for decades. Price may range for a short period of time, but make no mistake, Bonds have entirely lost their Status Globally. If you somehow believe the Federal Reserve will support the Bond Complex, you have had multiple opportunities to see the Forrest and no longer trip on twigs. It has been detailed here since July of 2021.
NASDAQ:TLT
by HK_L61
8
FIngerprints of the Past Point to an Uncertain FutureWhat can the past teach us about the present, furture? What do Energy, Interest Rates, and Volatility have in common? Perhaps more than meets the eye. One could surmise this has been ongoing since 2000, one could argue since the 80's. Cycles repeat, can gets kicked.....until we run out of kicks, then the roosters come home to roost, (and they do occasionally need to come home. My eyes are on Q2. Tightrope between now and then. Black swans (Russia/Ukraine, Inflation, Tightening and Interest Rate provide the catalyst. Not financial Advice.
TVC:US10YShort
by AlphaRainmaker
1
Correlation of Different Markets with Forex: CheatsheetOne of the biggest things you should understand as a trader is prices don’t just go up and down (well, maybe on a really small timeframe they’re more chaotic). They’re usually backed by some actions, data and things happening in other markets. This all creates general economic tendencies. But how do we know what affects dollar/currency pair and how? Well, here is a quick cheat sheet for that case. More importantly with an explanation of why. 😊 USD and Gold (negative) Investors prefer to abandon the dollar in favor of gold during times of economic uncertainty. Gold, unlike other assets, retains its inherent worth. Gold and NZD/USD (positive) New Zealand (number 25) is a major gold producer. Gold and AUD/USD (positive) Australia is the world's third-largest gold producer, exporting around $5 billion worth of gold each year. Gold and USD/CAD (negative) Canada is the world's fifth-largest gold producer. When the price of gold rises, the pair tends to fall (CAD is bought). Gold and USD/CHF (negative) Gold backs up more than a quarter of Switzerland's reserves. As gold prices rise, the pair falls (CHF is bought). Oil and USD/CAD (negative) Canada is one of the world's top five oil producers. It exports 5..5 million barrels of oil per day to the United States. As oil prices rise, the pair falls. Bond Yields and USD (positive) Higher bond returns attract greater investment to a country's economy. This makes its native currency more appealing than the currency of another economy, resulting in lower bond yields. Here it’s more about looking out for bond differences between countries. For instance, if bond difference between UK and United States goes down, this will cause GBPUSD fall as well. Gold and EURUSD (positive) Because gold and the euro are both considered "anti-dollars," if gold prices rise, the EUR/USD may rise as well. USD and Stock Market (depends on the market situation, mostly positive) So, here is a little weird one. Strong stock market is an indicator of a strong economy. So as company gets stronger -> stock price goes up -> attracting more international investors to step in, who have to get local currency in order to buy a local stock -> this cases dump of other currency in favor of the currency we’re intending to buy the stocks with (in our case USD). Seems easy? On the other side, people from the local economy dump their dollar/bond holdings to acquire more stocks weaking the currency itself. That’s why it’s a complicated love story. This correlation is quite different depending on the volumes for both cases. Enjoy, family! But keep in mind that these tendencies change to some extent as the world economy shifts/develops. Make sure to always stay updated and observe on your own.
TVC:DXYEducation
by Investroy
13
Bonds Ranging Between Our LevelsBonds have edged up, but as predicted, are facing resistance at 128'24. We saw a red triangle on the KRI at this level to confirm resistance. Currently, we are seeking support at 128'10, which we also anticipated. Two green triangles on the KRI are suggesting support here. As discussed yesterday, bonds are establishing value between 128'10 and 128'24. The Kovach OBV has edged up, but has leveled off. If ZN is able to break through 128'24, then there is a vacuum zone to 129'11. Otherwise, we should see support at 128'00.
CBOT:ZN1!
by quantguy
10Y YIELD CRATERING SOON? EXTREME FEAR EXPECTED IN 1Q OF 2022Hello traders & investors! As we look into the beginning of 2022 and use 10Y as our guide - expect enormous amount of fear coming to the markets/news channels/politician speeches.. I am expecting 40-50% correction on this 10 Year treasury. Cash will flow into bonds and DXY should strengthen at the same time too :) That being said, I expect this to unfold in first half of 2022. Multi-year and decade long views does not change - rates will climb much faster & higher. We have nice place to enter the markets in the times of extreme fear. Levels to watch: 1.52% & 0.90% Take care! This is not a financial advice.
TVC:US10YShort
by Patrikas10
2
Bonds dont like the clown showThe selling in bonds continues as inflation continues on. Wings in my area are almost $10/lb, highest i have seen this in my life (only 28 tho). Most of the time I check to see if there is any short term bond buying, this time however, short term bonds are selling too. It would seem that investors are spooked, Investors really have no where to run at this point. Crypto winter is here, Stocks did great today but those gains are no longer viable with a hawkish fed, homes are skyrocketing but people are already warning of a top, businesses have a labor shortage and with inflation it's obvious investors do not see US debt as a safe haven anymore. At least for now. I will keep you all updated. Hope you all have your popcorn at the ready.
TVC:US30Y
by Joshuakm
2
Government Bond Yield Surge - US2Y, US5Y, US10YThe crypto & stonk killer. Rates have been exceptionally low because of crisis. Look back to 2009. They went up in 2016 for a little bit while donnie complained. (he wanted that easy money because he tweeted about stonks his entire time in office). They drifted lower thereafter and then BAM! Another crisis the government had to print through. Where did all the PPP money go??? Kodak? DWAC? Nobody knows. Frauds abundant and the Fed will now run-off their near $9T balance sheet and start lifting rates. Plebs keep buying $SPY & Tesla calls or Simpcoins. #clueless Should be an epic show. *valuations matter Rates will bust the Fed's 2% Long Term average goal with ease. Crypto kids will go broke and they should blame their doge daddy for pumping them for personal gain. The "trillion" dollar companies will implode. Shibby Bitty too. All of it. GL
TVC:US02YLong
by EpicEconomics
TLT - 20Yr Bond ETFThe Monthly Chart continues to expand in Range. This is interesting as the Range Broadens the implications are quite Dire longer term. TLT was sold heavily prior to the ROC SPike in TNX. ZN was sold on Volume as well, an Instrument we have repeatedly discussed for its weakening structure. __________________________________________________________ Attempting to apply "Convention and Rationale" to an aging Trend is generally, an Idea whose validity should begin to come into question. FASB 56 alone is enough to bring the operations within the Shadows of the Bond Market under duress over time. It is clear the BIS is backstopping this operation - at what cost, we can only surmise. ___________________________________________________________ The Real Issue moving forward for the Bond Complex is one of simplicity. Rates will, in the Short Ter react to Policy and the perceived threat of Inflation. Shadow Operations will require time to unfold, but we believe this process has begun, it will not be brought into he light of Day any time soon, but will eventually, appear in the form of unexplained loss of confidence around the Globe. This will, of course, be devastating to the US Dollar. rendering it a 50 Level once 82 and then 77 are broken. _____________________________________________________________ The competition between China and the United States is well underway and is accelerating on many fronts. With the US Losing its advantages due to its inability to produce Value across former dominant Sectors of Global Trade - a 22nd Century pivot to Asia will continue to gain in both scope and scale, as well as velocity. Financial Isolationism within the approaching rebalancing of Global financial Arrangements will render the US to a weighted SDR status with less than favorable terms and conditions. This will have a devastating effect on the US Bond Market. The curve will be converted to a Perpetual Duration with Principals retired. A balance sheet liability which cannot be reduced without far greater and far more insidious distortions. It can never be eliminated. Never, it is not mathematically possible. Therefore it will be erased to bring balance. Think of it as the FDIC/SPIC coming to save $250K of your $20 Million. You lose, they win. They default in an extraordinary manner and provide token assurance that... one day... they swear to make you whole. It will never happen. ___________________________________________________________ This is axiomatic, pure, and simple. Regardless of the Gyrations... The Future is not "Uncertain" with respect to Bonds and how they will be all but eliminated.
NASDAQ:TLT
by HK_L61
TNX - Monthly Historical Chart 40 Year ChannelThe Event which will provide relief to the Bond Complex is the Federal Reserve walking back its most recent Policy Statement. The Short End of the Curve witnessed an aggressive move of 6-9 Bips. This doesn't appear to be much on the surface of it. Unfortunately, it is. ______________________________________________________________________ The Yield Curve is not effectively communicating at either end and throughout the Curve. Far too much is made of prior Paradigms, with a real lack of understanding of the Glacial movements in the Bond Complex. 40 years is a long time - an unparalleled Bull Market in Binds coming off the Volcker Era after the Whip Inflation Now Era. Price in trend - it remains in Trebbt as the sheer largess of the Bond Market is 11X that of Equities. _______________________________________________________________________ The Risks remain to Rates rising. Hopefully - there is not a disorderly eruption as it would wreak havoc in ways we have not seen in a very long time.
TVC:TNX
by HK_L61
Let the US yield curve guide - viewing the 2s v 5s UST curveAs we approach a world where the Fed look set to hike in March, with 3.4 hikes priced by Dec 2022- we are also now hearing an open discussion around allowing maturing securities on its $8.8t balance sheet to run off (QT) -so, it's worth going back to the Dec FOMC minutes for real insight. With the market having had time to pour over the wording, it feels clear that the key paragraph is the one highlighted on the chart - with the Fed saying that history has not been so kind when hiking into a flatter curve. This suggests that if the curve does head towards inversion - and I've chosen the 2s v 5s - then the Fed will do its utmost to counter that - this suggests: 1) the Fed desire a steeper yield curve 2) will favour QT/ balance sheet run-off if we see a flattening curve In the situation of continued high inflation, wage pressures and full employment, the Fed now have maximum optionality, but to counter the impact of higher fed funds on demand, utilising its balance sheet could be the key focus over hikes. So our central guide on the Fed's thinking will be the yield curve...and judging by the FOMC minutes if this is flattening and headed towards inversion, the lessons of 1986, 1988, 1999, and clearly 2006 are our case study by which we can wok with. So if the curve steepens and heads to 1%, the Fed will be compelled to hike concurrently with BS run off... but should if flatten then rate hikes will be priced out - This should offer excellent trading opportunities to go long US 2year Treasuries, and US rates (fed fund and ED futures) and may weigh on USDJPY initially before the market puts more weight on future relative balance sheet differentials. Gold should rally on a flatter curve. CW
TVC:US05Y
by Pepperstone
1
SPX since 1980s & 10Y Bonds. "Manual Guide" Technical analysis !Simple manual guide to better understand the relations, if there is any, between SPX & US10Y BONDS This is combing our four last studies into one comprehensive idea to try and figure out the patterns in both instruments. Thanks for your understanding if i missed one here or there or made some mistakes here and there. *** THE KEY FOR THE WHOLE STUDY IS : Daily Golden Cross (75% success) + Weekly kissing/cross (75% success rate) 200weekly MA = 75 % success rate we will get a pullback or a correction*** ---------------------------------------------- Starting with closest,2009-2021, crashes of SPX & US10Y BONDS price at that moment. (Idea included) 2.3xx 2.5xx 2.9xx 3.4xx 3.7xx All the above #s happened during the while the rate was actually going down, in our case today the rate is going up from most extremes low. Will it continue to go up/down is beyond my knowledge/experience. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ General perspective: ------------------------------ 1/ Using weekly Crosses on the US10Y have a 50-50 chance, not sensitive to the volatility of 10Y Bond. Therefore, do not come close to it :-). 2/ Since 1980 , past 41 years, we have 8 Golden & Death Crosses on the daily. 3/ Since 1980, past 41 years, there is 75 % chance to get a 20% correction or more while we are under the daily Golden Cross. 4/Since 1980, there is a 25% chance to get a 20% correction or while we are under the daily Death Cross. 5/Since 1980,past 41 years, not surprisingly we have the largest single percentage gain from a reasonable bottom before a 20% correction or more "244% up " to be exact as it is the case for all indictors since March's low all are our of the ordinary readings. 6/ as of today, we are under the "GoldenCross" = 75 % correction. 7/ we have 4 possible dats plotted on the chart for such event to take place , one of them we are already in !!! Next one is April 1, 2021. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Data for Kissing/Crossing 200Weekly MA: 2017-2019? One year nothing then 11%/20% 2015-2016 : 14% 2015-9 months sideways then 12% 2015 xxxx nothing 2013-2014 Long bull move. 9% pullback. 2011- 8% 2011- 7% 2010- 17% 2005-2007 : xxx long Bull move the crash 05-6% 05- 7% 04- 8% 1999-13%/10%/13% then crash 1997- 10% the bull move. 1996-8% Choppy Market then bull move 1994-9% then big bullish market ( 1 Year choppy market) 20% 11% 7% 7% 8% 36% 14 % ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Summary: 24 signals Kissing or Crossing 200W MA. 18 signals we went down @ kissing/crossing or Kissing/crossing happened a during pullbacks/correction 6 signals months-Year nothing happened then crash crossing down. 75% success rate we will get a pullback/correction kissing/crossing 200w MA. 25% we will continue a Bullish till crossing down then crash - 2 Years after crossing then crash 2007 -2015 cross up/down = Nothing happen to SPX !!! ------------------------------------------------------------------- Since the 80s every time we get a spike in US10Y Bonds SPX got a correction with a minimum of 20% and maximum of 57 % the question is where & when. Therefore, looking back to all the data available on Tradingview since 80s to 2021 we have measure the spike's percentage of 20% and more and the distance from the Golden Crosses & Death Crosses and showed the crash percentage as results of that. Surprisingly the weekly Golden Cross are 50-50 chance not the normal with indicators so the results are shown not plotted for the weekly. As for the daily all the work is plotted on the chart for your reference. Feel free to print, share, redistribute and publish this study for the benefit of any one out there. How to read the table below, just follow the steps: 1. Fist percentage is the gain of US10Y from the last reasonable low. 2. Second percentage is the % of the actual crashes. 3. The distance between the Gold Cross & the peak of the crash it self. 4. G.C = Golden Cross. D.C Death Cross 244 % up So far- ???? so far 144% up -20%- 305D G.C 59 % up -20%-70D G.C 70% up -57%- 20D D.C 64 % up -50%- 363D G.C (-24% Down) -22% -357D D.C xxx. 18% up -20%-78D G.C 28% up -36%- 130D G.C 43% up- -27%- 53D G.C 3 G. Crosses Vs 4 D. Crosses "Irrelevant weekly" 6 G. Crosses Vs 2 D. Crosses " 75% G. Cross " --------------------------------------------- Ideas:
SP:SPX
by samitrading
6
Have Bonds Bottomed??Bonds have stabilized at lows, and have started to form a range, as we suggested yesterday. We have started to find value just above 128'10, and below 128'24, the exact range we identified in the last report. After plummeting two full handles since the beginning of 2022 it was time for ZN to reach some sort of equilibrium before its next move. From here we expect value to continue to form at current levels. A relief rally is not out of the question, especially after such a selloff. If so, we could make a run for the 129 handle again. There is a large vacuum zone above to 129'11, which should be considered a max upper bound at this point. The floor seems to be 128'10 for now. The Kovach OBV is still quite bearish, so there is little hope for a genuine bull rally any time soon.
CBOT:ZN1!
by quantguy
$TLT selling off to $138-141 before rallying higherTLT looks to be close to finding a bottom. I could see TLT finding a bottom in the $138-141 range then basing for a couple of weeks before rallying higher in early November. Key dates and levels on the chart. My macro thesis is that we're at the start of a larger pullback in markets and money will flow to treasuries as a safety net. Dates align on both the S&P bottom and TLT top around March... Let's see how it plays out.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by benjihyam
3
Yields Soar, Treasuries Smash Lows!!Bonds have tumbled off soaring yields. Rising inflation seems to be one of the key drivers, along with paradoxically increasing risk on sentiment in stocks, as the indexes are testing new highs again. ZN smashed through support in 130 handle. We saw absolutely no support from 130'00, the final barrier to the 129 handle, and even less from 129'26, the first level in the 129's. We finally bottomed out (for now) at 129'11, one of the levels we have identified months back using inverse Fibonacci Extension levels. The Kovach OBV has fallen off a cliff with the selloff, but appears to be leveling off as the price stabilizes here. Anticipate some ranging at current levels are digested. The next level down is 128'24. If we catch a relief rally, then 129'26 should provide resistance.
CBOT:ZN1!
by quantguy