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Bonds

Bonds Establish ValueBonds have dipped but have found support at the levels we identified yesterday. ZN retraced from relative highs at 131'02 to 130'19. It has since rebounded and is currently testing 130'26. The Kovach OBV was quite strong, but has dipped with the retracement. We appear to be forming value between 130'19 and 131'02. If this is the case, then expect further support at 130'19 and resistance at 131'02. Beware of the vacuum zone below to 130'07. The next target above is 131'12.
CBOT:ZN1!Long
by quantguy
1
Bond Yields to Rise again soon - heading towards 1.8%I think its fair to agree that in the long term, with interest rates expected to rise, and monetary policy tightening, that bond yields willl rise inevitably. but the question really is when. Whilst i cant judge when that will be... i can try and get some good timings (for short positions on bonds - since bond prices are inverse to yield). Yields should bottom out near 1.25% fairly soon... after which i would look to see the yields rise back to around 1.8 or possibly more.
TVC:US10YLong
by nmiah7c
Global bonds rout put central banks on the spot What a crazy market,” said Priya Misra, global head of rates strategy at TD Securities. “The 20s-30s curve is just reflecting the overall flattening theme in the market -- where central banks are forced to respond to inflation, which slows growth significantly.” Yield-curve flattening has gained momentum across global bond markets this week as traders scrambled to price in more aggressive central-bank actions to fend off inflation. The Bank of Canada surprised investors Wednesday by abruptly ending its bond-buying stimulus program and accelerated the potential timing of future interest rate increases; the Canadian yield curve flattened sharply in response. While declining oil prices account for some of the pullback in breakevens, “profit-taking after a very strong run over the past several weeks” was also a likely factor, said Michael Pond, head of inflation market strategy at Barclays Capital Inc. “We might be seeing de-risking ahead of the Fed,” which has been mindful of inflation expectations and doesn’t want to appear to be behind the curve, Pond said.
TVC:US10YLong
by GrizzlyBearBee
Bond market volatility rocks the EuroData released Thursday showed that U.S. GDP growth slowed sharply to a 2% annualized rate in the third quarter. Meanwhile, investors continued to price in rate increases by the European Central Bank, while dismissing President Christine Lagarde’s effort to push back against such expectations. Market expectations of higher interest rates has brought out bears, with Danske Bank strategists expecting the euro to fall to $1.10 over the next 12 months.
Short
by GrizzlyBearBee
US10Y Signs of a bearish reversal.The US10Y has reached (and so far got rejected on) the 1.707 Resistance (1), which last time rejected the price on May 13. With the 1D RSI on a Bearish Divergence (is on Lower Highs while the actual price is on Higher Highs), similarities can be made with the February 25 - March 30 sequence, which after an RSI Bearish Divergence got rejected on the 1.775 Resistance (2) and essentially started the correction towards the 1.125 Support. We are expecting a pull-back towards the 0.382 Fibonacci Retracement level and if broken the 0.618 level which may be even more likely as it is the top of the recent High Volatility Cluster. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:US10YShort
by TradingShot
4
TREASURY BONDS CREATING LIQUIDITY BEFORE MOVE UP?Hello my beauties. The bonds seem to be in a strong downtrend, and the volume profile suggests that the most liquidity is actually clustered around the upwards trendline area. I suspect the price will be directed there to generate enough liquidity for the next move up. If you find this idea to be helpful like, follow, and drop a comment below if you'd want me to analyse a different pair. Consider supporting me if you think I am providing you with value. Peace. Luca, TrickleDownFX
CBOT:ZB1!Short
by TrickleDownFX
1
TLT - ThunderBall as TNX trades thru 1.564139s and perhaps lower as this will begin to unravel the Equity markets as we approach the prior highs. The Fuse for the next leg down in the Equity Complex is being lit. And the reason for the RUSH to Wall Streets higher FIlls. Things are quickly coming apart in the REPO Markets as well. This sets up the potential for a large Rug Pull... 1.71 - 1.76 and it's going to get very Sporty. Banks are not lending, higher rates do them very little. Savers are being torqued by Inflation as the Wood Panelers and 007s can't seem to find a Bid for their Junk Paper. This will get nasty in the next 10 days. Very Nasty, they are using the lul between Expiry in VX to hoist price as far as they can only to let it go again. We see 15K on NQ with the Gap at 15.2K and the Ledge 15.4K. NQ has traded the -382 of the 15399 to 14367 decline. With tomorrow's Macro Job / Employment Report, the silliness can get out of hand quickly. IMHO, this will end rather badly as we roll back over and begin the 200SMA assualt.
NASDAQ:TLT
by HK_L61
10
Double Bottom in German Bunds, Expected Rally to 171.2Trend Analysis The main view of this trade idea is on the 15-Min Chart. German Bunds (FGBL1!) formed a double bottom or W chart pattern setup after testing 169.60 support and break above 170.3 resistance. Expectations are for the uptrend to continue, with the completion of the setup being around the 171.20 price level. Failure of the setup will be observed if FGBL1! were to decline below the long term moving average, taking the price to 169.80. Technical Indicators During the course of the double bottom setup, the respective short (50-MA), medium (100-MA) and long (200-MA) fractal moving averages had positive crossovers. Currently the price is trading above the respective MAs. Other technical indicators are also displaying bullish signs. The RSI is trading above 50 while the KST recently had a positive crossover. Recommendation The recommendation will be to go long at market, with a stop loss at 169.80 and a target of 171.2. This produces a risk/reward ratio of 1.37. Disclaimer The views expressed are mine and do not represent the views of my employers and business partners. Persons acting on these recommendations are doing so at their own risk. These recommendations are not a solicitation to buy or to sell but are for purely discussion purposes. Currently I have a position in FGBL1!.
EUREX:FGBL1!Long
by Ceddy86