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Bonds

10Yr ZN - Wandering Bishop - ROCsEnraged Evergrande Investors weild Laterns and Pitchforks. The carnage for hostages provides a demonstration to our thesis for Banking and Bonds. Perhaps a soft default in October when the Government runs its tap dry temporarily. Further evidence, things are not well at all. The chart illustrates the First Accident 2020 Covid Event. The second, required YCC to brings circumstance out of control with 10 yr ROCs spiking at the fastest rate in History. Perhaps the 3rd time pushes on through into the Bond Kingdom Revolution. We shall see, we continue to build the Big Lick for Bonds.
FRED:THREEFYTP10
by HK_L61
24
SPX500 vs TLT : Are you expecting a big than ever drop? When...Just a fast idea about correlation between SPX500 (US500) and TLT. I'm more bearish than bullish over Sp500, however I just find out TLT correlation with market. Just read more... I was expected a major drop here in September, but seems not strong enough. My other target is around March / April. Why? Because of Financial results. Can we expect super good gains in a market that drained every stock reserve in 2 year where retails "buyed everything they can find, while at home?" I suppose no. You simply can't sell a 10$ Toys for 100$. If you can't find enough supply, at least you can rise price a little to 15$, maybe 20$. But if before you where able to sell 200.000 pcs x 10$ = 2M$, now you only have 10.000 x 15$ = 150.000$. Freaky! Can we expect a faster recover in production while there are production "bottle necks" everywhere? I suppose no. If I need 200.000 toys, I must find them. But if production limit is 1000 toys for week, and there are no stock reserve and high demand, my order must be shared with others. Price will be rise a little. And if my production machine broke, I must wait for a spare part. And if I produce Spare Part I must wait for chip supplier to produce it. To many "bottle necks" everywhere. Can we expect a fast FED tapering? Maybe not, will only accelerate collapse. So anyone will stay in silence, waiting ... for collapse. BUT WAIT... WHY TLT? IS IT WORTH? Maybe not so worth, but higher TLT prices means less buying interest on Governative Bond. Lower prices means more are buying TLT, and this means "standard stock market credibility" just slowing down , melting off. Reads : sell stock & buy bond / commodities. As always is only a matter of "capital movement" not to HODL till die. Just learn from Pro. Small gains everydays just build more capital than HODL. YES BUT MY BTC STORE VALUE IS GREAT! TO THE MOOOON! Ok, free to believe this. Only ask your self if Pro will really trust on BTC as temporary Store Value (like GOLD is only temporary) or if... they are going to screw every small retail. TO MAKE IT SIMPLE Whatever will happen, Oil prices, Tapering, Yield Interest, BTC to the moon... from a perspective of "simple buy and sell goods" we are already screwed. We need time to recap production, to fill warehouse, to arrange product stock supply reserve. Hope is oil price will no go up any further, hope is in some sensate economical intervention, hope is... in cypto decentralization Fomo anarchic mind set. Ok... We are all screwed. No way, only matter of time. ONE LAST THING... Can you figure the "Black Swan" when will enter in the play field? Who or what will be the Jolly Joker for a complete decline? Share your vision. ----------------- This is not Financial advice. Only my idea. Feel free to share, comment or add missing information. And why not? Will you consider to donate something for some other post like this? Just contact me.
NASDAQ:TLT
by STABLECOINS_GURU
TLT - The Madness of Mass Delusions10Yr Yields declined as international Capital Flows began demanding dollars out of the fear as to what is occurring outside the USSA. This implies, as well, a robust demand for perceived "Safety" - the very last thing it actually is. Europe, as we have indicated for months now, remains a basket case. For as bad as it is here, it's worse there. However, this is short term in its duration as the USSA is losing favor as a "Partner" of actual substance. The Long Con remains in trade. It will get a lot worse outside the USA which remains bullish on capital inflows. Simply watch France as they are teetering on another Bastille Moment. _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________ That said, the objective of the Level Pullers is not friendly. Sending hoards of cash into the Fed Reverse Repurchase Market - reduces the cash in the Banks. This ONLY accelerates the liquidity crisis, which, in the very short term can have an important effect on Yields. It is temporary. Christine LaGarde, has been inferring that a policy shift is taking place which will be a transition in 2022. Stimulus policies have totally failed and the negative interest rates have destroyed the European Bond Market. Inflows to USTs is axiomatic for the EU, for the UK... not so much as they have shown a clear and present desire to position to China's Bond Market... slowly. The ECB's ONLY tool remaining is the rather hurried rush to digital currency ASAP for Europe is out of time. It will not go over well and lead to immense Social unrest. France, Ireland, Spain, Greece, Italy won't simply roll-over. 80 Central Banks around the Globe desire digital currencies according Lagarde - "We think that it's a duty of us to actually have available digital currencies that would operate to the benefit of consumers." There is nothing the governments ever do that is for the benefit of consumer citizens unless it benefits the Government 1st. LaGarde intends to end Private Cryptocurrencies. In her own words - "funny business" in Crypto needs to end, once and for all. They will be regulated out of business... plan for it. When you replace "Currency" which comes into existence from DEBT, Governments no longer need DEBT MARKETS aka Bonds. Currency no longer exists, Unlimited Pokemon Cards do however. The ability of the ECB to continue buying endless debt from its member states is coming to an end. Pressures to break up the EU is growing and this above all is driving the ECB to take drastic actions. They will cancel the Euro ahead of schedule, sending the FX Markets into a tailspin. _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________ UST Bond HODLers somehow believe this works well for them... it can in the very short term. Ultimately, the Tide begins to approach our shores as Confidence itself evaporates. The game of borrowing forever with no intention of paying anything back is coming to an end and with it the US Bond Markets. What will be the Value of your Bonds? They will become "Perpetual" - you will be allowed, permitted and forced to accept a coupon with no return of principal, that will be in Lock Down for good. Any/All protest from the SVM / Bong Community will have to provide critical rebuttal of the above for any further consideration. Unintelligent Echo is considered amorphous, Vapid, Delusional, Degeneracy and participation in its own demise. We are no longer entertaining idiocy. - Hunter Killer
NASDAQ:TLT
by HK_L61
21
ZN - 10 Yr Note - Continued Move to Higher Yields - ZN TLT ZBTLT is beginning it's terminal phase for the next decline. We Sold to Open TLT this morning, taking our First Position at our Target, with further Sells to 150s Set. Out dated Maturities, we have been suggesting for the past month are due for a large correction in Yields. Day to day noise is just that... Noise. Bond HODLers are convinced they have it figured out. They clearly do not or they would not be supporting an enterprise steeped in criminal activity. 3 Fed Members have now been admitted to Front Running Markets for their own Benefit. CONfidence inspiring.
CBOT:ZN1!Short
by HK_L61
1
10 Year Treasury Note - ROC's Building againRates of Change for Yields will face increasing Competition in the coming weeks. We anticipate further to quickly be met with YCC. Yields have been mixed at lows, attempting to Hang their Man. Central Banks receive their orders on High. Governments can no longer borrow to fund their annual spending. Digital "Currency" proposals from the WEF via Lagarde at the IMF, Echoed @ the BIS and then it's stepchild the ECB. The Debt can of worms can no longer be kicked down the road. Europe is in the final stages of collapsing under the Existing System. This will spread Cajun style, like a swamp Gator that eats everything that moves in the DEBT SWAMP. Rumors (Credible) of the Federal Reserve accepting Direct Deposits is halting the Primary Dealer network of Banks (First Abusers) who, via Trading Arms and partners such as BlackRock and VanGuard and many other smaller boutiques such as Gelber - have been able to manipulate ALL Markets without consequence... The Federal Government required them to sell their DEBT. This effort is very clearly coming to a decided end. Globally, the entire Financial System and edifice is being dumped on its Head.
CBOT:ZN1!
by HK_L61
3
PCG - Going as Planned***None of the idea I share, including this one, should be taken as financial advise. Tread lightly and if ever you find yourself certain of something, think again.*** Previous Idea and Trend In my previous idea (linked) on PCG I said I'd expect this stock to struggle downward most of the summer and reach a strong support level in the low $9.00 range. This has been the case so far and there's not much that's changed to affect my view, at this point. Reiteration I still believe the current price level is this stock's bottom until there are other catalysts. It will remain around this level for the remainder of the summer with a possible break-out later this year (October or November). Other News PCG's decision to burry 10,000 miles of cable to mitigate fire risk is, in my view, an attempt to save face given the present concerns over PCG's role in the Dixie fire and sensitivity around the wildfire subject at large. I say this because cable burial, even when done as cheaply as feasible, is very expensive when compared to overhead installations. My preference would have been for PCG to make large investments in overhead protection of assets (specifically fuse-linked cutouts and surge-arrester failures). There are plenty of asset protection devices that almost completely mitigate the chance of asset failure and subsequent fire creation. This could have been done with fractions of the cost of cable burial and could have been done system wide instead of only across select segments (where the likelihood the most effectual burial segments could be miss-identified is high). In my estimation, this move's short-sightedness it mitigated by the comfort provided from concern management is showing toward future fire prevention. Dixie Fire and PCG From what I've read, it seems very unlikely PG&E had a role in starting the Dixie fire; more so considering the exact verbiage of any legal challenge would include the word "negligent". Thus far, legal "challenges" have been political in nature rather than legally interesting: All fear, loathing, and grand-standing. Even if PG&E is found to have behaved negligently resulting in the Dixie fire, the structure of AB 1054 provides reasonable downside protection. The Fed's Role As always, in this current market, we have to consider Fed actions. If talk of asset tapering manifests into actual tapering I would expect this stock to fall. We shall see. Position Additions I'm still not looking to add to my position until the common stock reaches mid-to-low $7.00 range.
NYSE:PCG
by forever_green
Bond Curve - Long End where Fiscal Funding is FundedThe Dollar has very large Trendline support as well as the 50SMA. The pressure this exerts can be extreme. The rising trend indicates the potential for an extreme move in the Rate of Change (ROC) once again. The move will be very strong as 2 events are in play: 1. DX Hoarding 2. Net Drains @ FED and US Treasury * Of Note, the future of stimulus was made clear this week as California announced their intent to provide Universal Basic Income at a flat rate of $1000/per person. YCC remains active ahead of the September Federal Reserve Policy Statement. Frankly, a non-event imho. Since the end of March 2021, the 10Yr has dropped from 1.74. The question being asked - What is the Bond Market indicating? Answer - the FED smacked their noses for attempting to call them out on their endless BS.
CBOT:ZB1!Short
by HK_L61
6
VIX - VJH / Financials / Bonds / Velocity / Scope / ScaleGood Morning - Hope this finds everyone well. The Virtual Jackson Hole Symposium begins a 3 day affair today. _______________________________________________________________________ Bonds Macro Data includes Preliminary GDP and Unemployment Claims @ 8:30AM EST. Economic Calendar - www.investing.com Bonds out the Curve 10Yr (ZN) - 20Yr (TLT) - 30Yr (ZB) have been pulling back. As we indicated in prior commentary, the ROC (Rate of Change) is seeing increasing Velocity ahead of VJH. The 10Yr is the weakest Instrument. Volatility in Bonds, we anticipate will begin to Increase. Bonds have been the Deposit of Choice, regardless of Real Returns - the Return of Capital as opposed to the return on Capital - this speak volumes as to what is coming. An assured loss in Bonds is axiomatic as Inflation remains well above Real Returns adjusted well beyond the CPI/PII inaccuracy. _______________________________________________________________________ Financials Traditionally, Financials respond well to Positive Rate Adjustments. In prior Macro Observations, we Indicated some time ago, Banks were no longer lending. We began to Observe Banks reducing Lines of Credit (LOCs) and Revolving Credit. Reverse Repurchase Agreements began a change in Term Structure early in 2021, with longer dated terms out to 48 Days, some further duration. As Economic activity is grinding down, Banks were exposed to increased Deposits. Liabilities, which they began to shun, driving increases in Money Markets, which have become Bloated. This is reminiscent of when the Dollar Broke Par during the 2006-2008 Financial Crisis. This one event spooked the Markets, it set off a large Panic. It was not until Janet Yellen and Timothy Geithner arranged for $2 Trillion in Short Dated Treasuries to be authorized, did the DX crisis abate. The Dollar is being hoarded as Fear continues to compound. It is the Senior and Reserve Currency and during crisis, remains the preferred Position. The thinking is simple - Why give the Government my Money as it is assured a loss, the Debt can never be paid back. It can be paid back synthetically - a Tomato would be $1,400.00. _______________________________________________________________________ Volatility Events - Important Events to Market Participants, speed up Market Activity. It expands the Scope and Scale of participation, while having a large and profound effect upon the speed of Trading Activity. Prices become extreme in Intra-Day actions. Yesterday, we observed a large Bid under the Front Month M1 @ the 19.00 level. Protection was being Bid there. During Globex, we saw 18.95 trade, a one tick dip below, this is quite typical as the VX always trades a one Tick move above or below when it is staging. And it is... the Falling Wedge on the Daily has provided 7 Months of Wash Rinse Repeat declines programmed to perfection. The larger Daily Targets for the VIX M1 extend to the 12s. The problem is, they haven't traded below 16... All eyes should be on Volatility as it begins to pick up. As many of you know we have a large VX Position - VXX, VX Curve, VXM, we will continue to build this position into September. We anticipated a Break of Trend for the Globex Tuesday night session. It failed to materialize as Distribution is incomplete, but very close to ending. Last night's GLOBEX Session was a clue, we saw indecision. We are watching the VIX M1 Front Month @ 10:00AM EST for 19.65 as the level to indicate the VIX Curve will be breaking up and out. To be clear, this is NOT the Cash/Spot VIX - the Instrument is the Front Month Futures Contract. ________________________________________________________________________________ Our Position Sells are weighted heavily in TECH and VOLATILITY. We anticipate at least an 11% Correction form the most recent ATHs. It is developing, albeit slowly... this is about to change IMHO. BE well, Happy Hunting. - HK _______________________________________________________________________
CBOE:VX1!Short
by HK_L61
3
Inflation TradeIn the chart below you have the TIP and IEF the IEF ratio. IEF is Ishares 7-10 year treasury bond ETF and TIP is the TIPs bond etf. On the right side of the chart you have the 10 year inflation breakeven. Now looking at the two you can see that they track pretty closely. Now generally the IEF 7-10 year has a very similar duration to that of the TIP etf. Some people are wondering how to play the inflation hedge as with some of the largest tech stocks P/E multiple compression could pose an issue to high P/E ratio trading stocks. What does this mean, and what is multiple compression. Well what happens as inflation rises that inflation starts to be built into P/E multiples, and as that happens you start to get compression of those P/E multiples this can pose a massive risk to equity holders. So my thesis would be you could short IEF, and be long TIP. This is something to look into, and I believe that spread that you can see below is going to widen tremendously. So it is something to watch out for, and a trade you might want to consider setting up.
AMEX:TIPLong
by tahirg0010
1
Will FED Taper?Fed tightening 10 year surged to almost 3.2% when Powell tried to tighten this can be seen on the chart below. Now following that measure to tighten you see the S&P fall 20% this miscalculation of the FED to increase rates. Powell was out to pop the equity bubble, but again this miscalculation caused them to stop tightening, and on the chart below you can see this was followed by the cutting of rates. Low growth married to market expecting liquidity has allowed us to see huge growth. We are stuck in the circle of asset growth over strong economic growth.
SP:SPX
by tahirg0010
No one actually understands how bullish this isFirst - for the more obvious bullish divergences on OBV, RSI, & MFI. I had a hell of a time trying to find anywhere with a similar divergence But the places that I did find them had a massive pump following Additionally, you're probably confused about the TLT chart. These are 20 yr bonds that fluctuate more or less with the strength of the dollar, interest rates, and yields. These values are very telling when it comes to determining the 'health of the economy'. Knowing that, I was able to give data to the health of the economy and put it against the market cycles of Bitcoin to see what kind of environment it needed to grow. I noticed a pattern and certain conditions that must be met for Bitcoin to surge. Take out one of these characteristics, and you don't have a green light for a full blow bull market. Condition #1: Massive sell-off of the TLT bonds followed by a relaxed recovery . This lights the fuse. Condition #2: Volatility of these bonds must be in check. Any massive fluctuation after the fuse is lit will put it out. These are represented by the little dots from an indicator called a VSTOP . The Inception of Bitcoin followed the 2008 crisis, so the switch in VSTOP is backwards, but still relatively illustrates correctly. Condition #3: The underlying data responsible for the TLT price action must follow a particular pattern. I've measured this with a moving average and smoothed moving average crossing of the TLT's RSI Similar to a death cross or golden cross. Green above red signals this 1 of 3 conditions true. So, to determine the start and end of a Bitcoin bull-market, the green must be above the red, and the VSTOP must be in the gold . With all of this, it appears Bitcoin is far from done pumping. Thanks :)
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Ungovernable
TLT - Longer End 10/20/30 FlatteningSince 2002 when GSCO's Timothy Bitsberger's began his reign as Assistant Secretary of the Treasury. Fiscal Fundings began to move down the curve to under 30 Months and accumulate a large concentration within this timeframe. It placed the burden of Government Finance up on the Short End of the Yield Curve near the region of control for the Federal Reserve and their ability to drive Monetary Policy. During the waning decades to today, the Bond Markets have become 11.2X the size of Equities. Since 2008 we have witnessed a rapid acceleration in Money Stock, one which remains underreported then (as the FED ceased reporting M2) to today where the very life blood of Credit Growth Velocity has dried up and reversed. TARP, TALF and the Yield Swaps accumulated $32 Trillion in Debt. 91% of the American Public was against these Monetary Measure then.... Today they Gag for it as the Global Economy lays in ruin. Independent Producers have been wrecked to the point, recovery is simply not viable. The FED Minutes served to provide several references to moving up the Timeline for Tapering. This provides cover for Powell's (we'll let ya know while we're thinking about thinking) as behind the scenes they are preparing for short duration reduction in the usual suspects - RMBS, CDO, CDO, Corp Debt, Zombie DEBT. Yield Curve Controls became evident as the 1.71 10Yr yield was not permitted to be breached, had it and Swaps would have been grossly offsides and created a large dislocation. At present, The uncertainty over the impact of this Policy change - Potential Policy change - remain in Flux. The Dollar, our target is 9465 ST, remains the wild card as the EU faces retribution for decades of abuse and a failed attempt at Negative Interest Rates - the vote of Confidence ALWAYS flows to the Currency of Seniorege, the US DOLLAR. Capital Flows favor US Markets as China is making it extraordinarily clear, they are closing off the Monetary & Economic Borders well in advance of the UNWIND coming to our shores. A steepening or inverting yield Curve is immaterial. We crossed the Rubicon long, long ago. As we witness the SPX to M2 Stock overthrow the .22 level - there is an important message there, extremely important, which is why we suggested the ES would attempt an over-throw on Friday @ the 4441 level. These actions ahead of Jackson Hole are significant. More to follow within the 5 Part thesis beginning with ES/M2S, TLT, Divergences, Capital Flows and "Resurrections' Trade" HK
NASDAQ:TLT
by HK_L61
2
VIX - Trade Plan for VOL CRUSH ReversalBuy J U N K, chase green bars, chase false overthrows... Patience, Analysis, Temperament, Constitution of Trade Plan - Probability favors all. BTD chasers. We'll happily take the opposing trade and here it is: Volatility Crush Reversal VIX Curve - ON Gap Fills of VIX Cash/Spot & VX Curve we will have completed inverse ladders on the following Positions: VXX 5K - Objective 20K Position, Projected lows into Wednesday ~ 25.08 Trade Structured INV LDR @ 25.68, 25. 36, 25.12, 25.06. VX Curve: M2 - 0 Position / Objective 5K VX Curve M3 - O Position / Objective 5K VX Curve M4 - 0 Position / Objective 2.5K ______________________________________________________________ SMH/TECH Extension to Target & Top Tick 7-9 Large Cap Prop SOXS: 40K Position / Objective 60K NQ: 0 Position / Sell INV LDR to 15363 overthrow TSLA - 50 @ 720 Nov Puts / Objective 100 to 780 Hedge only on Gamma FM Only, Theta not an issue Shares 400 / Objective 1500 INV LDR to 780 AMC/GME - Digging in to kill the roll AMC - Position Objective 12.5K to 37.88 GME - Degenerates are eyeballing 300 GF, no fill until 2022 Collar at 195 Strike out through November. __________________________________________________ Financials ZB - 0 Position, TLT Gap Fill ahead Wednesday Fed minutes for entry ZN - 0 Position, TLT Gap Fill ahead Wednesday Fed minutes for entry TLT - 0 Position, Gap Fill ahead Wednesday Fed minutes for entry NQ BANK - Observing Bank as RTY ES will catch the head fake for entry. Financials will drive ES RTY YM Entries Hedges will be Large Micro CTs in Bracket, OCO form for high turn entry/exit - Hedge ONLY. Powell - Still Thinking about... *Clarida - Taper could begin later this year Quarles - See's Taper discussion coming into view *Brainard - Echoes Taper discussion for September *Waller - Reduction of Bond Purchases in October *Bowman - Policy Statement Support ahead, Hawkish THE BOG HAS TURNED HAWKISH. Events: ALL BOG Members voted for/supported: Individual capital requirements for all large banks, effective on October 1, 2021 $1 Trillion CBCD central bank digital currency Policy Objective Enforcement actions have been tailored to NY/NJ Banks, epicenter of US Finance
CBOE:VX1!Short
by HK_L61
3
is the dollar done rising, or just catching its breathe?One of the most important, if not the most important market, the dollar is battling for the next chapter in its history. With the current environment of CPI over 5%, more stimulus in the works, FED still sticking to buying assets, Low overnight rates, and large growing national debt ceiling on the table again, the dollar is a big deal right now. My bias is a dollar to the down side as investors will discount the inflation in bonds and dollars. To the dollar upside, any large fear wave in asset prices or chaos in other risk currencies would make me look to dollar upside. My best guess, I would think a stock dip that becomes a correction should be on the way, and in one scenario it could be partially or mostly be caused by a sell off in bonds and dollars. Otherwise, a stock sell off correction could also be the reason that bonds and dollars rise if they are seen as safety. The first scenario is my bias and best guess. dont listen to me, I know nothing and will lose you money.
TVC:DXY
by ValuePig