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Mas But I Never Know Just Like You! 👍So what fun in the wonderful world🌎 of Bitcoin ETH and your favorite Alt... I highlighted this region because I find it a note worthy zone for many to remember. Many on one side of the fence vary few on the other, but much wow! Many now are "I told you so's" or no FUD allowed let me keep pounding this rock it feels sooo good when I stop. Point is the chop is the chop but if your chopping a tree with the intention to harvest well chopping brings the tree down... 🪓🌳 I haven't posted much my previous post speak for themselves and current sentiment. 🤷‍♂️ Never wrong to plant a trees though! 😉 What are your thoughts? Is it bad that people like to realize gains and say "Cool! More Dollars now!" Most will answer with an emphatic "YES!!!" LOL Or am I really the only person that's down to pull profit and even short a little??? LOL No Advice to give just thoughts that I can't shake after the last 6 years in the world of "CRYPTO" Things 🤷‍♂️ #Fixed IDK Protect Your Neck! 🙏FOR JUST A HEALTHLY PULLBACK! ""KEEP CALM AND MANAGE THY RISK!""
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by BradySWilliams
2
OHM Targets and Short DD Well OHM is in the news because Mark Cuban has decided to stake a decent chunk. I think this one holds promise based on the fundamentals, especially during a possible correction or bearish continuation in the crypto markets. Why? It's basically poised to become the DAI version of the Federal Reserve. Also we can see some strong support at each correction point suggesting we might even test the 4 figure ATH if sentiment around crypto changes or even just as people are in search of yield which the project certainly boasts a great track record so far with. So why should you buy? Discount potentially down to 489 if support holds. Automatic compounding staking system saves your ETH. Bonding system can give you a discount as the price rises from local lows. Obvious enthusiasm with big FOMO candles. Limited supply becoming increasingly staked due to promising yield should push through resistance consistently. This is not an asset you should trade, it's one you should stake to weather the crypto sentiment storm. Near term targets and accumulation zone in chart, exercise caution below local support. This is not financial advice, only invest what you can afford to lose.
OLong
by Subterfugex
1
MARKET ALPHA WATCHLIST - TLTSymbol: NASDAQ:TLT Indicators Laguerre RSI 2 x Multi-Time Frame EMA Comments: The FED has been pumping a substantial amount of liquidity in the US economy via creation of and then purchasing of bonds. The problem became more complicated as Michael Burry revealed his massive short position against the bond market. Michael Burry was not the only one shorting the bonds. The decline of the dollar was a clear indication that the Fed efforts would lead to further decline in bond prices. The bonds look to be unraveling as the word "taper" has been a focal point of the fed and they are actively having meetings about having meetings... so that is definitely promising.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by jakelikesstocks
2
10Yr - A Very Clear Capital Return PanicSince January there has been a stealth accumulation out the Curve. In March it began to quietly accelerate. While Algo's drove ZN into the 131s, buyers were gobbling up each and every drive lower, building an outsized position which saw Volume peak in May from May 2nd to May 31st. Dark Pools began their acceleration in March. There is a clear trend deeply concerned with an "Event" - one which saw Volumes begin to accelerate June 16th. Volatility in Bonds should begin to pick up dramatically. Extreme Caution is warranted for Equity Complex, in particular Technology and Regional Banking. The VIX Curve, specifically SEP/OCT spread should be closely watched. We are seeing clear signs of Backwardation that could quickly invert.
CBOT:ZN1!
by HK_L61
5 Year T-Note Futures Heading Lower Towards 123Disclaimer The views expressed are mine and do not represent the views of my employers and business partners. Persons acting on these recommendations are doing so at their own risk. These recommendations are not a solicitation to buy or to sell but are for purely discussion purposes. At the time publishing, I have a position in 5-Year T-Note Futures (ZF1!) . Trend Analysis The main view of this trade idea is on the 2-Hour chart. zf1! has been channeling lower after making a high of 124’08 on July 8th. First low was observed on July 13th around the 123’18”5 price level and a lower high is seen around 124 on July 15th. ZF1! Is expected to make a lower low at 123’14”5 in the short term. Technical Indicators ZF1! is currently below its short (25-SMA), medium (75-SMA) and fractal moving averages and its RSI is trading below 50. Moreover, the KST recently had a negative crossover. Recommendation The recommendation will be to go short at market. At the time of publishing ZF1!is trading around 123’25”2. The medium-term target price is observed around the 123’14”5 price level. A stop loss is set at 124. This produces a risk reward ratio of 1.54.
CBOT:ZF1!Short
by Ceddy86
Black Swan - Transitory InflationIdea for Macro: - I present to you a counterargument for the media blaring inflation narrative. - Speculate that the interest rate hikes (Jackson Hole, etc.) are just red herrings. In fact rates may go negative. - The real shocker is that everybody is positioned for inflation when inflation is at its peak and is indeed transitory. The reflation trade was debt driven and is supported by nothing but hot air. “Inflation - A continuing rise in the general price level usually attributed to an increase in the volume of money and credit relative to available goods and services” - Merriam-Webster Actually global credit impulse is rolling off. - There are 3 types of inflation that are relevant: Monetary, Consumer Price, Asset. (Lyn Alden, www.lynalden.com) Monetary Inflation: "In highly indebted economies, additional debt triggers the law of diminishing returns. This fact is confirmed when the marginal revenue product of debt (MRP) falls, where MRP is the amount of GDP created by an additional dollar of debt. In microeconomics, when debt is already at extreme levels, a further increase in debt leads to an increase in the risk premium on which a borrower will default suggesting that the bank or other lender will not be repaid. As the risk premium rises, banks are often unable to price this additional cost through to their private sector borrowers thus the loan to deposit ratio of the banks falls. Combining both the falling MRP with a declining loan to deposit (LD) ratio, results in a reduction in the velocity of money. In terms of the impact on monetary activities, a drop in the LD ratio means that more of bank deposits are being directed to the purchase of Federal, Agency and state and local securities in lieu of private sector loans. The macroeconomic result is that funds are shifted to sectors that are the least productive engines of economic growth and away from the high multiplier ones." - Too Much Debt, Hoisington Investment Management Co. - Yes, you have M2 skyrocketing, but compare it with Debt and adjust for inflation. Wow, It did nothing to debt levels. GDP adjusted for inflation barely recovered: - M2 doesn't exist in a vacuum, but needs to be balanced for deflationary forces. Debt is winning. - Yes, you have consumer price inflation and asset price inflation, but these are largely driven by speculative bubbles. They are not driven by fundamental factors nor underlying conditions. They will regress to the mean by Reflexivity. - Yes, there are supply chain issues due to COVID + political tensions, but how long will it last? Are the political tensions even necessary? What happened to lumber even with supply chain issues? - What is even the reason for continued asset purchases by CBs? IMO, asset purchase tapering is done to engineer a crash in the speculative asset bubbles, so that more extreme monetary policies can be enacted to try to stop the tidal wave of debt. Once the speculative asset bubble collapses, consumer price inflation will be controlled as well. In fact there will be a dollar shortage, as each dollar is leveraged 50x+ vs. debt. - CBs don't care about speculative asset inflation okay? Not a big deal. Bubbles even pop by themselves. Price of Big Mac and used car goes up a little bit, boohoo. - Evidence to support my thesis is falling inflation expectations. Inflation expectations are what drives asset prices up. If inflation is expected to decrease, then the prices of assets are expected to decrease. Why would anyone hold an asset expected to depreciate in price? Signals of falling inflation expectations: Inflationary yields: Inflationary currency pairs: FRED inflation expectation rate: fred.stlouisfed.org Gold - you might see something crazy happen here. This can be the end of a distribution pattern: Inflationary Commodities: - The stock market is one of the last markets to receive liquidity trickling down from the source. Currencies, bonds, commodities lead them and stocks should not be used as an indicator for future inflation expectations over them. - Right now, the world is positioned for inflation and are looking for interest rate hikes as the signal, but that won't be catalyst. - Inflation and liquidity flows have been cut off at the source, and now we are at the cliff of the debt driven sugar rush. There must be great suffering in order to justify more extreme monetary policies. Then and only then will you have sticky inflation in a stagflationary environment. "Inflation is transitory" - Jerome Powell GLHF - DPT P.S. Disclaimer - I am relentlessly selling risk assets, long volatility and bonds.
FRED:WM2NS
by UnknownUnicorn1043646
2
10Yr Note - When the Levy BreaksThe important Context of "Pristine Collateral" as we have addressed repeatedly is the Salient Issue - The Return of Capital. The availability of T-Bills remains in an extremely short supply. The Federal Reserve - $230 Billion at last disclosure. The United States Treasury - $0. T-Bill terms of 4, 8, 13, 26, and 52 weeks for issuance have seen the highest percentage of issuance @ present — 91-day, 182-day and 364-day. UST's schedule: www.treasury.gov UST Direct, place your offer - www.treasurydirect.gov * Please let us know how you fared, we did not. Powell, by nature - points the finger and blame @ Sec. Of Treasury - Janet Yellen. Yellen is suppressing "Pristine Collateral" according to Jerome Powell. Is She though... If Banks are not lending... They need to be paid to hold the abundance of CASH. But, wait a minute... Money Center Banks / Primary Broker Dealers do not want CASH. They prefer you place your CASH in Money Market Funds. Say what, Banks don't want CASH? Yes, it is serious LIABILITY on their balance sheets at this point in time as their balance sheets are DEBT Laden. WTF Mate, what are you talkin bout? J.Dude, seriously - you are delusional... This is simply a series compounding errors by ALGOs trading in the Treasury market. IF you believe this - please consider the following: We pointed out this is or LTCM / Lehman moment on an exponential Scale more than a few times. So let's clear the decks with respect as to why Mate. When the lowest yielding Treasury is in Demand - exponential Demand. WE have a problem, one in which everyone loses a Hand. Credit simply gives way to Crisis - Crisis is all that results. And we are all seeing this presently - Inflation is at the highest rate in REAL TERMS while Yields on the Treasury Curve in Real Terms are at the Lowest on Record. Convergence, it a nasty Bitch.
TVC:US10YShort
by HK_L61
1
Credit - US10Y to DeclineIdea for US10Y: - US10Y will decline - institutional fear > buy safe bonds. - Positive correlation in yields/equities right now (extreme periods) - Markets are topped, this will cause a decline in equities. - UST signaling deflationary shock. Yes, you will have inflation win out in the end, but you can have deflationary shock to get Fed to enact more extreme monetary policies. You can have negative growth during price inflation. Reminder that major crashes are preceded by capitulation in yields: GLHF - DPT
TVC:US10YShort
by UnknownUnicorn1043646
4
US10Y Medium-term sellThe US10Y has confirmed the shift from bullish to long-term bearish as last week it broke below the Higher Lows Zone that has been holding since the August 07, 2020 bottom. The bounce however on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line on the left chart) is something to keep an eye on, but for the moment that is viewed as a Lower Lows rebound within a Channel Down (right chart). The last Lower Highs were made at or close to the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line on the right chart). Since the 4H RSI has just entered its Resistance Zone, it may be a good time to start selling the US10Y. The target is 1.1600, above the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level (as seen on the left chart). Most recent US10Y idea: ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- !! Donations via TradingView coins also help me a great deal at posting more free trading content and signals here !! 🎉 👍 Shout-out to TradingShot's 💰 top TradingView Coin donor 💰 this week ==> Ether2020 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:US10YShort
by TradingShot
5
Lookout! The Wealthy Are Shorting The Economy20 year yields appear to be breaking out of a long downtrend which has witnessed a boom in the stock market since this asset's crash back in March of last year. But now the winds seem to be shifting possibly again as now the TLT has started July with fireworks and yields appear to be flipping bullish. This would be very bad for stocks.. however please keep in mind that this is a lagging indicator. Sometimes it plays out in perfect sync, sometimes it takes months to come into effect. Which means, the remainder of the year should be safe for equities. 2022 however, if 20 year yields confirm bullish, would be fair game to see the real crash in the stock market that many have been waiting for. A play on bonds could be the potential bet/hedge in the distant future. If you enjoyed this post please leave a like :)
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by TradeVibez