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OUTSIDE DAY for ALL major averagesWhat a turnaround for ALL the MAJOR averages! As we've been saying over and over again....... The END OF DAY IS WHAT MATTERS!!! *Indices formed an OUTSIDE DAY* Outside days can signify 2 things: CONTINUATION OR REVERSAL (of the current trend) Being that the day ended lower, LIGHT VOLUME though, we will take this as a WARNING!!!!!!! RSI fell pretty hard, #stocks could just experience profit taking for a bit. __________________________________________ TVC:VIX roaring & seems 2b stronger this time around. TVC:DXY close to support and seems to be trying to base again. 2 Yr #yield showing positive divergence. 10Yr oversold - don't see anything out the norm in either one of these, yet at least.
DJ:DJI
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
LONG a Falling Interest Rate! - TLTNASDAQ:TLT is an ETF that tracks value of United States Treasury Bonds in the time range of the 20-30-year bonds. With this ETF tracking the bond value it will rise with the decrease in these bond yields as the previous bonds offering higher % rates increase in value. I am bullish on TLT for a few reasons that are summarized in the bullets below - Interest Rates are at their highest levels in around 20 years and history would show that following these peaks in the 5.5%-7% range tends to be a sharp fall of interest rates usually due to a general moderate or severe economic downturn needing economic stimulus with low rates - Along with the peak thesis, in the current economic state of America, it has been generally discussed by Fed Presidents that rate slowdown / rate hike pauses are starting. The FedWatch tool from CMEGroup shows that traders predict the highest rates will not go any higher, and actually start being cut in Early Spring 2024. Due to this data, it is definitely important to realize the risk/reward of this trade on how the downside is minimal with the current economic conditions proving interest rates will likely not move higher, and definitely not more than a last 25bps hike for this rate cycle considering no unprecedented events occur. - Another staple to this bullish thesis is against the Federal Reserve. I strongly believe the Federal Reserve bluffs intentionally during their public conferences and talks. Recalling the inflationary period following COVID, the Fed repeatedly spoke out on this inflation being transitory while CPI rocketed to record highs in decades. I believe they like to not inform the public to the 100% truth and locked room talks. The Fed has came out and said they are quite against publicizing a rate pause officially / begin cutting rates and I believe this is a bluff. As the Fed claims to wait for data, I believe that data is showing, and will continue to show stronger economic struggle from the effects on high-interest rates. As unemployment just ticked up and probably will continue, rates will start to drop fast as soon as the Fed starts. Treasury Yields would likely dump prior to all of this as the anticipation begins to flow into the markets. Lastly, I think the Fed tends to deceive the public to try and not heavily move the markets in a short time. - Overall the data should start to pour in on economic slow down as student loan repayments resume, credit delinquencies continue to rise, housing market cools, unemployment ticking up, and more can feed to a sharp drop in CPI as aggregate US demand settles. The Fed will act on this slowdown and will need to sharply cut interest rates, especially if they wait too long. - Technicals on NASDAQ:TLT also look strong with a major demand zone, a dailydouble bottom and a diagonal trendline supports the price level. TTM_Squeeze also backs up a possible end to the downside. Below 89 area could be a solid Exit area for risk-management. Any Cut in Rates, or anticipation in rate cuts can send TLT flying with bond yields tumbling. Bonus: NASDAQ:TLT also provides a safe hedge to a market collapse or recession. Because market recessions would spark a cut in rates to help fuel a recovery, while stocks may tumble, this ETF would rally on a decline of interest rates to help stimulate a falling economy. Thesis : long Commons or 2025 dated Credit Spreads
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by ZachSap
6
US10Y ~ Bullish Downtrend Reversal (2H)TVC:US10Y chart mapping/analysis. US10yr bond yields finding bullish reversal off lower range of descending parallel channel (white) - further momentum pending upcoming 10yr auction + US economic data. Trading scenarios into EOY: Bullish reaction to macro economic news = continued momentum to break above descending trend-line (white dashed) towards 38.2% resistance zone. Bullish extension target(s) = re-test upper range of descending parallel channel (white). Bearish reaction to macro economic news = reversal back below 50% Fib / 4.10% psychological support level / lower range of descending parallel channel (white) / ascending trend-line (green dotted) confluence zone. Bearish extension target(s) = Golden Pocket zone / 4% psychological support level / 78.6% Fib.
TVC:US10YLong
by BlueHatInvestor
US10Y vs. SPX ~ Inverse Correlation/Ratio Indicator (Dec 2023)TVC:US10Y versus SP:SPX inverse correlation analysis. Work in progress indicator for anticipating market trend switches. Notes: Emerging correlation identified within US10Y/SPX ratio. Spikes in ratio (orange vertical line, dotted) aka bond yield ROC/volatility = higher probability of risk-off sentiment (ie big tech & growth stock rotation). Correlation only valid when market is "hyper-sensitive" to bond market fluctuations, especially during recent US Fed undertaking rate hike cycle. Should be used in conjunction with other confluence factors to provide conviction in swing/position trades.
TVC:US10Y
by BlueHatInvestor
BRR pattern points to a true Santa rally for bonds. A rare chart pattern second in predictive power to only the famous head and shoulders is the Bump and Run Reversal (BRR) technical pattern. school.stockcharts.com If it is so powerful, why is it so unheard of? 1) They are rare. But a recent BRR of very high consequence is the 2022 DXY chart. 2) They usually only occur on high time frames as they measure manias and blow off tops, or in the inverse, manic selling followed by a return to normal. 3) They are hard to chart 4) They give predictive power in terms of time, not in terms of a "measured move" of price, but in the other dimension time. This chart shows a clear BRR reversal, 55 days in the manic up pattern, the "bump". 55 Days in the return to trend or "run". Which would create a 10 year US Treasury bond rally and likely a rally in risk on assets. Which lands us, perfectly, at yields dropping until Monday December 25th 2023. Merry Christmas Traders!
TVC:US10YLong
by SuperCycleTA
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 12/11/2023 SessionCME_MINI:NQZ2023 - PR High: 16114.00 - PR Low: 16082.00 - NZ Spread: 71.5 Key economic calendar event 13:00 | 10-Year Note Auction Highlight for the week: Bonds and FOMC Trading in prev 2 week highs Evening Stats (As of 12:05 AM) - Weekend Gap: N/A - Gap 10/30 +0.47% (open < 14272) - Session Open ATR: 213.00 - Volume: 20K - Open Int: 226K - Trend Grade: Neutral - From ATH: -3.0% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 16391 - Mid: 15819 - Short: 15533 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
CME_MINI:NQZ2023Short
by mv3trader5
$TLT bottom. Upside ahead targeting $100+As I wrote in my last post on TLT, I had a target of $88. $88 was hit on Friday and is now slightly below it today. I went long both via spot and calls. I took March 15 2024 calls at a $101 strike price and I'm anticipating a large move higher playing out by then. I've marked off resistance levels on the chart. Let's see how it plays out over the coming months. I'm not a believer in the rates are going to stay higher for longer narrative. I do think they'll be higher than where we were in 2021, but I do not think they'll stay at 5+%. I think the financial system will end up being in trouble and the only out will be to bring down rates again. I do think that'll play out sometime in the next 6 months.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by benjihyam
1
EU 30Y Bond Yield to extend further into 2008 high in 2024Economic Policy needs to remain restrictive or should tighten further, until clear signs of easing inflationary conditions are available. Technicals Favor: Strong yearly candle Favor: Strong M BiMS Favor: M BiMS after ATL Favor: Multiple BSL Levels higher Currently at 10Y High Expectation Downside Retracement Targets (careful Short Term) 1 - 2.057% (Y SIBI Inverted) - 95% Certainty 2 - 1.625% (Target (already traded to)) - 75% Certainty 3 - 1.330% (MT Recent Upswing based on Y H to L) - 65% Certainty 4 - 1.149% (MT Recent Upswing based on Y Bodies) - 55% Certainty 5 - 1% (Beginning of Grind upwards) - 25% Certainty Upside Targets (After Downside) 1 - 3.160% - Y 2023 High - 95% Certainty 2 - 4.915% - 85% Certainty 3 - 5.738% ( Fib 1.618 Extension) - 65% Certainty 4 - 6.258% (23Y High) - 35% Certainty
TVC:EU30YLong
by FXCytech
US10Y Is this the end of Bond Yields' 3.5 year run?The U.S. Government Bonds 10 YR Yield (US10Y) is pulling-back towards the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and bottom of the Rising Wedge. The pattern is getting too tight and the squeeze will inevitably result in a break-out and new trend/ pattern. If the Rising Wedge breaks downwards, it will mean the end of the yield's +3.5 year bullish run and will have a high impact both on stocks and Gold. In fact there are high probabilities of that happening as a similar Rising Wedge broke to the downside at the end of 2018. If that gets materialized, then the first attempt should be on the 3.300% Support 1 level, before the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) gets closer for the test of its long-term Support status. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:US10YShort
by TradingShot
1
US10Y: The goal from now on should be to buy the bounce.The US10Y is approaching an oversold technical state on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 34.650, MACD = -0.086, ADX = 44.537) as selling was accelerated this week after failing to get close to the 1D MA50. The long term pattern is a Channel Up and the decline since Octobet 23rd is the new bearish leg. The one prior hit the 0.5 Fibonacci level of the rally and then rebounded to the 1D MA50 with the 1D RSI approximately on the same levels as today (S1 Zone). Consequently, our goal from now on is to start buying on dips and aim for the 1D MA50 and in particularly the 0.5 Fibonacci level from whatever bottom the US10Y makes now (modest estimate TP = 4.575%). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:US10YLong
by InvestingScope
Major Market Correlations Between Yields, Stocks And USDollarIn 2022, the stock market took a hit and the US Dollar gained strength due to higher yields in the US. Toward the end of that year, as yields eased off, the US Dollar lost some of its power, and this coincided with a rebound in stock market performance. Now, as yields are climbing once again, the US Dollar is regaining strength, but it seems like stocks are beginning to lose their previous momentum. However, the situation might shift if these rising yields are in the process of completing their fifth wave and are on the verge of slowing down. In that case, the US Dollar could actually become weaker again, and the stock market might continue its upward trend. Of course a lot will depend on the FED policy decisions, where dollar can turn down if FED will stop the hiking cycle. Well, a lot will depend on the US data, so market participants will surely watch the NFP very closely tomorrow.
TVC:US10Y
by ew-forecast
1