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$DXY & $TNX & Rates show signs of exhaustionThe US #Dollar has pulled back a bit: At MAJOR SUPPORT At Green Moving Avg = Support RSI is at 50 (neutral bullish unless crosses lower) Weekly TVC:DXY is 50-50 The RSI is curling over but the MACD is now above 0 = down trend over Hmmm, interesting scenario Not sure what to make of it Monthly #currency ------------------------------- The 2Yr #Yield broke the recent up trend. While it has performed better than shorter term #interestrates it's gotten weaker recently. The RSI & MACD have been trending lower for some time and it's much easier to see on a weekly! Look @ that Severe Negative Divergence! Could rates be DONE? ------------------------------- The 10 Yr #Yield on the other hand has built good deal of steam lately. Weekly it is overbought. Monthly it's overbought as well. But what is interesting is that the MACD has only been higher 1x than current scenario. MACD histogram lower (arrow) = future MACD neg crossover? However, it's nowhere near as weak as short term #interestrates TVC:TNX
TVC:US10Y
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
🔥 Bonds Are Predicting A MASSIVE Crash 🚨The Bond Yield Curve, which can be calculated by substracting the US 2 Year bond yield from the US 10 Year bond yield, has been inversed for quite some time. An inversion of the bond yield basically means that bond traders require higher returns on short-term bonds than on long-term bonds, which translates to short-term bonds being more risky than long-term ones. This only occurs when bond traders anticipate an upcoming crisis. The inversion on itself is not necessarily bearish, but the "un-inversion" is very bearish. As seen on the white chart, once the line crosses the zero line from below, it has always predicted an upcoming crash. With the Bond Yield Curve recently seeing a strong "bullish" move, it's likely that we're going to hit 0% in the near future. Consequently, this signals that a market crash is on the horizon. Whether history will repeat remains to be seen. However, we had one of the strongest yield inversions in history, which doesn't bode well. Do you think that a crash is coming? Share your thoughts and charts.
TVC:US10YShort
by FieryTrading
15
US10Y: Soaring Bond Yields as Federal Reserve Maintains Hawkish The Fed Hawkish Stance During Wednesday's address, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reinforced his stance on tackling inflation with a more cautious approach. He emphasized that the central bank is not yet finished with its efforts to curb inflation and hinted at the possibility of implementing multiple interest rate increases during future monetary policy meetings. Powell's statement comes as a response to the ongoing challenge of bringing down inflation, which has consistently remained above the central bank's target of 2%. Notably, some Fed officials have emphasized in recent speeches that inflationary pressures persist. They specifically highlight core inflation, which excludes the volatile prices of food and gas, as not decelerating as rapidly as overall inflation. The aforementioned statement supports the potential scenario of higher Government Bond Yields in the future, as an increase in interest rates typically correlates with elevated yields. Technical Analsyis The U.S. government's 10-Year Bond Yield has undergone a retracement, precisely at the 0.5 Fibonacci ratio, establishing a support area. Notably, the yield currently exhibits a bullish trend as it remains above the EMA 200 line, indicating positive market sentiment. Furthermore, the Falling wedge pattern suggests a continuation of the prevailing trend. Complementing this observation, the stochastic line crosses within the neutral area, further bolstering the case for a possible upward movement toward the target area. It is important to keep in mind that once the target/support area is reached, the roadmap provided may no longer be valid. If you find this analysis helpful, I encourage you to show your support by clicking the rocket button and sharing your opinions in the comments section below. "Disclaimer: This analysis is intended solely for educational purposes and should not be considered as a recommendation to take a long or short position on the TVC:US10Y ."
TVC:US10YLong
by financialfreedomgoals101
9
XAUUSD – finding few friends with the USD in beast modGold has found few friends of late as both US nominal and real Treasury yields rocket higher, and the USD has been on a one-way bull trend. If funds want to play defence in the portfolio, they increase their USD exposures, given the strong inverse correlation vs. the S&P500 and NAS100. Funds can also get a 5.58% yield holding risk-free US 6-month T-Bills and when gold has no yield this is an opportunity cost. Technically, we see strong support at the channel base, and the Feb/March lows, and combined with the RSI at an extreme 19, there is some scope to bounce, or at least consolidate here. However, that will again require buyers in US Treasuries, which could compel traders to take profits on USD longs. Catalysts this week for traders to navigate and could affect price action in XAUUSD - ADP payrolls, ISM services and nonfarm payrolls.
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD
by Pepperstone
Yield Curve Bottom (10s minus 2s) This is called the "Steepener" trade and refers to a mean reversion in the yield curve. From current level of (-38 basis points, or -0.38%), I'm targeting a move back to 1.00%, or ~70bp, risking down to about (-45bp), or about (-13bp) downside. Yield curve steepeners seek to gain from a greater spread between short- and long-term yields-to-maturity by combining a “long” short-dated bond position with a “short” long-dated bond position, while a flattener involves sale of short-term bonds and purchase of long-term bonds. - CFA Institute
TVC:US10YLong
by jBTCkingaling
1
Exploding MOVE/VIX Ratio: A Major Warning SignHey everyone 👋 Guess what? This post was created by two TradingView users! @SquishTrade and I collaborated on this post. We wanted to share our thoughts about the MOVE/VIX ratio, which has been exploding recently, and which may be presenting a warning about the future movement of the S&P 500 ( SPX ). Before we begin, here's a bit more about the MOVE index: The MOVE Bond Market Volatility Index measures the expected volatility of the U.S. Treasury bond market. It is calculated based on the prices of options contracts on Treasury bonds. The higher the price of these options, the higher the expected volatility of the market. The MOVE index is widely used by investors, traders, and analysts as a measure of risk in the bond market, as changes in market volatility can have a significant impact on the prices of bonds and other financial instruments. The above image shows a 10-year U.S. Treasury bond issued in 1976. Here's a bit more about the VIX volatility index: The VIX is a measure of volatility in the stock market. More specifically, the VIX measures volatility by using weighted prices of SPX index options with near-term expiration dates. When the VIX volatility index was created by the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) in 1993, it was calculated using at-the-money (ATM) options. In 2003, the calculation was modified to include a much wider range of ATM and out-of-the-money (OTM) strikes with a non-zero bid. The only SPX options that are considered by the volatility index calculation are those whose expiry period lies within more than 23 days and less than 37 days. The above image shows the highest VIX ever recorded at the close of a trading day. It occurred near the start of the COVID-19 pandemic shutdown. Recently, @SquishTrade discovered that the ratio between the MOVE bond volatility index and the VIX volatility index has been rising along a trend line (as shown below). Indeed, since 2021, the MOVE/VIX ratio has been exploding higher and is now approaching the highest level ever. @SquishTrade identified that the daily chart of the MOVE/VIX ratio has shown a moderately strong positive correlation to moves in the S&P 500, this correlation appears to be statistically significant. Citing the above chart, @SquishTrade further explains that: The peaks in MOVE/VIX seem to correlate with peaks in SPX, especially since late 2021 (exceptions in yellow circles). This makes sense. When a rise in MOVE occurs, but VIX stays low, this raises the ratio. Of course, when VIX stays low, it's almost always because SPX price has risen or remains supported. Overall, higher MOVE and lower VIX suggest underlying problems in broader bond markets / financial system / economy AND that this is not being reflected in implied volatility (IV) for SPX. In other words, for a variety of reasons, some of which may have to do with volatility players, equity volatility shows that equities don't care yet. When the VIX rises, the ratio falls. The interesting thing is that the peaks in MOVE/VIX correspond with the peaks in the SPX. The other interesting thing is the general trend up in MOVE/VIX and the corresponding trend down in SPX since late 2021. So when MOVE/VIX peaks, it is as if rates markets are flashing red, and SPX is rallying like all is well. That process continues until a top in both SPX and MOVE/VIX occurs, at which time SPX gets the memo, VIX rises, and the MOVE/VIX and SPX fall together. My response to @SquishTrade's above analysis is that: It is my belief that the explosive move higher in the MOVE/VIX ratio relates to the capital dislocation hypothesis, which I explain in further detail in my TradingView post below: In short, the capital dislocation hypothesis is that there is far too much capital in the stock market (SPX) for bond yields to be as high as they are (and while GDP growth is also as low as it currently is). Similarly, S&P 500 volatility (VIX) is far too low for bond volatility (MOVE) to be as high as it is, as @SquishTrade alludes above. Exeter's inverted pyramid (shown below) ranks financial assets according to safety, with the safest assets at the bottom of the inverted pyramid. Whenever an asset lower down on the inverted pyramid becomes volatile, riskier assets above it tend to experience some greater degree of volatility. This often occurs on a lagging basis since macroeconomic processes are not instantaneous. Therefore, we can extrapolate that the extreme volatility of U.S. Treasury bonds will likely precede extreme volatility in riskier asset classes, including stocks. Consequently, the exploding MOVE/VIX ratio is likely a warning that the VIX may move much higher soon. Chart analysis of the VIX, as shown below, potentially supports this conclusion. Bond volatility, as measured by the MOVE index, has likely increased due to the market's extreme uncertainty about the future of interest rates and monetary policy. This extreme uncertainty underpins the stagflation paradox: persistently high inflation pulls the central bank toward monetary tightening (higher bond yields) while liquidity issues and slowing economic growth pull the central bank toward monetary easing (lower bond yields), thus resulting in bond volatility. The explosion of bond volatility is likely a sign of impending stagflation, which may be severe. For more of my stagflation analysis, you can read the below post: Certain futures markets, such as the Eurodollar futures market, which typically guides the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, have been experiencing historically high volatility, as shown below. The above futures chart suggests that the uncertainty about future interest rates stems directly from ambivalent market participants. Since the Federal Reserve generally follows the market, if there is extreme uncertainty and ambivalence about the future of interest rates among market participants then the result will likely be a period of whipsawing monetary policy (whereby the Fed hikes, cuts, hikes, and cuts interest rates in rapid succession). In the quarters and years to come, we will likely see extreme monetary policy whipsaw as the Federal Reserve grapples with the dueling high inflation and slowing economic growth crises that characterize stagflation. Be sure to follow @SquishTrade on TradingView, and let us know in the comments below if you would like us to collaborate on additional posts! If you're interested in collaborating with us, also let us know! Important Disclaimer Nothing in this post should be considered financial advice. Trading and investing always involve risks and one should carefully review all such risks before making a trade or investment decision. Do not buy or sell any security based on anything in this post. Please consult with a financial advisor before making any financial decisions. This post is for educational purposes only.
TVC:MOVE
by SpyMasterTrades
180
TOP 20 Key Patterns [cheat sheet]Hi guys, This is @CRYPTOMOJO_TA One of the most active trading view authors and fastest-growing communities. Consider following me for the latest updates and Long /Short calls on almost every exchange. I post short mid and long-term trade setups too. Here are some Educational Chart Patterns that you should know in 2022. I hope you will find this information educational & informative. >Head and Shoulders Pattern A head and shoulders pattern is a chart formation that appears as a baseline with three peaks, the outside two are close in height and the middle is the highest. In technical analysis, a head and shoulders pattern describes a specific chart formation that predicts a bullish-to-bearish trend reversal. >Inverse Head and Shoulders Pattern An inverse head and shoulders are similar to the standard head and shoulders pattern, but inverted: with the head and shoulders top used to predict reversals in downtrends An inverse head and shoulders pattern, upon completion, signals a bull market Investors typically enter into a long position when the price rises above the resistance of the neckline. >Double Top (M) Pattern A double top is an extremely bearish technical reversal pattern that forms after an asset reaches a high price two consecutive times with a moderate decline between the two highs. It is confirmed once the asset's price falls below a support level equal to the low between the two prior highs. >Double Bottom (W) Pattern The double bottom looks like the letter "W". The twice-touched low is considered a support level. The advance of the first bottom should be a drop of 10% to 20%, then the second bottom should form within 3% to 4% of the previous low, and volume on the ensuing advance should increase. The double bottom pattern always follows a major or minor downtrend in particular security and signals the reversal and the beginning of a potential uptrend. >Tripple Top Pattern A triple top is formed by three peaks moving into the same area, with pullbacks in between. A triple top is considered complete, indicating a further price slide, once the price moves below pattern support. A trader exits longs or enters shorts when the triple top completes. If trading the pattern, a stop loss can be placed above the resistance (peaks). The estimated downside target for the pattern is the height of the pattern subtracted from the breakout point. >Triple Bottom Pattern A triple bottom is a visual pattern that shows the buyers (bulls) taking control of the price action from the sellers (bears). A triple bottom is generally seen as three roughly equal lows bouncing off support followed by the price action breaching resistance. The formation of the triple bottom is seen as an opportunity to enter a bullish position. >Falling Wedge Pattern When a security's price has been falling over time, a wedge pattern can occur just as the trend makes its final downward move. The trend lines drawn above the highs and below the lows on the price chart pattern can converge as the price slide loses momentum and buyers step in to slow the rate of decline. Before the lines converge, the price may breakout above the upper trend line. When the price breaks the upper trend line the security is expected to reverse and trend higher. Traders identifying bullish reversal signals would want to look for trades that benefit from the security’s rise in price. >Rising Wedge Pattern This usually occurs when a security’s price has been rising over time, but it can also occur in the midst of a downward trend as well. The trend lines drawn above and below the price chart pattern can converge to help a trader or analyst anticipate a breakout reversal. While price can be out of either trend line, wedge patterns have a tendency to break in the opposite direction from the trend lines. Therefore, rising wedge patterns indicate the more likely potential of falling prices after a breakout of the lower trend line. Traders can make bearish trades after the breakout by selling the security short or using derivatives such as futures or options, depending on the security being charted. These trades would seek to profit from the potential that prices will fall. >Flag Pattern A flag pattern, in technical analysis, is a price chart characterized by a sharp countertrend (the flag) succeeding a short-lived trend (the flag pole). Flag patterns are accompanied by representative volume indicators as well as price action. Flag patterns signify trend reversals or breakouts after a period of consolidation. >Pennant Pattern Pennants are continuation patterns where a period of consolidation is followed by a breakout used in technical analysis. It's important to look at the volume in a pennant—the period of consolidation should have a lower volume and the breakouts should occur on a higher volume. Most traders use pennants in conjunction with other forms of technical analysis that act as confirmation. >Cup and Handle Pattern A cup and handle price pattern on a security's price chart is a technical indicator that resembles a cup with a handle, where the cup is in the shape of a "u" and the handle has a slight downward drift. The cup and handle are considered a bullish signal, with the right-hand side of the pattern typically experiencing lower trading volume. The pattern's formation may be as short as seven weeks or as long as 65 weeks. >What is a Bullish Flag Pattern When the prices are in an uptrend a bullish flag pattern shows a slow consolidation lower after an aggressive uptrend. This indicates that there is more buying pressure moving the prices up than down and indicates that the momentum will continue in an uptrend. Traders wait for the price to break above the resistance of the consolidation after this pattern is formed to enter the market. >What is the Bearish Flag Pattern When the prices are in the downtrend a bearish flag pattern shows a slow consolidation higher after an aggressive downtrend. This indicates that there is more selling pressure moving the prices down rather than up and indicates that the momentum will continue in a downtrend. Traders wait for the price to break below the support of the consolidation after this pattern is formed to enter in the short position. > Channel A channel chart pattern is characterized as the addition of two parallel lines which act as the zones of support and resistance. The upper trend line or the resistance connects a series of highs. The lower trend line or the support connects a series of lows. Below is the formation of the channel chart pattern: >Megaphone pattern The megaphone pattern is a chart pattern. It’s a rough illustration of a price pattern that occurs with regularity in the stock market. Like any chart pattern, there are certain market conditions that tend to follow the formation of the megaphone pattern. The megaphone pattern is characterized by a series of higher highs and lower lows, which is a marked expansion in volatility: >What is a ‘diamond’ pattern? A bearish diamond formation or diamond top is a technical analysis pattern that can be used to detect a reversal following an uptrend; the however bullish diamond pattern or diamond bottom is used to detect a reversal following a downtrend. This pattern occurs when a strong up-trending price shows a flattening sideways movement over a prolonged period of time that forms a diamond shape. Detecting reversals is one of the most profitable trading opportunities for technical traders. A successful trader combines these techniques with other technical indicators and other forms of technical analysis to maximize their odds of success. Technicians using charts search for archetypal price chart patterns, such as the well-known head and shoulders or double top /bottom reversal patterns, study technical indicators, and moving averages and look for forms such as lines of support, resistance, channels and more obscure formations such as flags, pennants, balance days and cup and handle patterns. Technical analysts also widely use market indicators of many sorts, some of which are mathematical transformations of price, often including up and down the volume, advance/decline data and other inputs. These indicators are used to help assess whether an asset is trending, and if it is, the probability of its direction and of continuation. Technicians also look for relationships between price/ volume indices and market indicators. Examples include the moving average, relative strength index and MACD. Other avenues of study include correlations between changes in Options (implied volatility ) and put/call ratios with a price. Also important are sentiment indicators such as Put/Call ratios, bull/bear ratios, short interest, Implied Volatility, etc. There are many techniques in technical analysis. Adherents of different techniques (for example Candlestick analysis, the oldest form of technical analysis developed by a Japanese grain trader; Harmonics; Dow theory; and Elliott wave theory) may ignore the other approaches, yet many traders combine elements from more than one technique. Some technical analysts use subjective judgment to decide which pattern(s) a particular instrument reflects at a given time and what the interpretation of that pattern should be. Others employ a strictly mechanical or systematic approach to pattern identification and interpretation. Contrasting with technical analysis is fundamental analysis, the study of economic factors that influence the way investors price financial markets. Technical analysis holds that prices already reflect all the underlying fundamental factors. Uncovering the trends is what technical indicators are designed to do, although neither technical nor fundamental indicators are perfect. Some traders use technical or fundamental analysis exclusively, while others use both types to make trading decisions. Trade with care. If you like our content, please feel free to support our page with a like, comment
Education
by CRYPTOMOJO_TA
89
SILVER, This Crucial FORMATION is About to Activate the BEARS!Hello There! Welcome to my newest analysis of SILVER from several timeframe perspectives. The recent determinations within the SILVER price are so severe that I saw no other approach besides deeply analyzing the current bearish indication within my analytics backend and approaching the most acute indications here. Especially, as SILVER is emerging with these heavily accelerated bearish pullbacks liquidating the bulls in the market and penetrating the still remaining supports the major bearish dynamics are increasing more and more and should not be underestimated. The DXY, U.S.-Dollar Index is trending towards the upside with one new higher after the other together with the more than $100 Trillion market-cap bonds market trending towards the upside this is setting up a huge bearish sentiment for the asset of SILVER as investors open interest declines in SILVER and the bears are expecting the bulls to be roasted. In chart terms this means that SILVER on the weekly timeframe perspective is building this gigantic descending triangle foramtion that will be completed with a final breakout below the lower boundary and from there on the major bearish targets of 19.015 will be the minimum target of this gigantic descending triangle formation. There are also many other factors that indicate the major bearish breakout and net long-liquidation scenario to emerge in the next times especially because SILVER is forming this major wave count on the lower timeframe perspectives with the bearish wave A setting the momentum of the bearish wave count. Now within this local wave-count SILVER is forming the ascending wedge as the main flag pole bearish wave B that is going to set up the origin of the bearish wave C extension once it has been completed. Together with the descending triangle, this is going to be a double confirmation, the major descending triangle on the weekly, and the bearish wave count on the local. Taking all the factors into consideration here, SILVER is in a highly bearish condition with the major market developments decreasing the net-long open interest in SILVER as well as the grievous bearish formations that are setting up the next bearish waves to emerge within the next times. In this case, once the bearish momentum curve accelerates into the final target zones it will be important to determine how SILVER continues from there on because with a massive bearish pressure, there is also the potential that SILVER just continues beyond the target zones. In this manner, thank you everybody for watching my analysis of SILVER. Support from your side is greatly appreciated. VP
COMEX:SI1!
by VincePrince
7
Will $TNX catch up to shorter term yields?G-Morning! Shorter term yields haven't moved much as of late. Demand has slowed down & this coincides with the expectation that the #fed will be cutting rates soon. The 2Yr #yield recently caught up with the strength of the shorter term #InterestRates & looks to be settling in the area just like the others. On the other end the 10 Yr #yield has been pumping. HAs been strong & hasn't been this overbought since Sept 22. Many compare #InterestRates to GFC (Great Financial Crisis) but they were on their way DOWN vs now, they are on the way up! Back then this was not much of an issue because #debt was SIGNIFICANTLY lower. Compared to Trillions now. TVC:TNX
TVC:TNX
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
SILVER FUTURES, Pullback-Developments, BEARISH Indication!Hello There! Welcome to my new analysis about SILVER FUTURES on several timeframe perspectives. The SILVER FUTURES recently showed up with important pullbacks which moved on to test further remaining levels within the whole structure. From a market perspective the bonds market recently showed massive strength with T-bills emerging to form several higher highs and a continued upside movement. This upside movement is also given within the DXY, U.S.-Dollar Currency Index as the DXY continued to form strong movements to the upside putting pressure on the SILVER FUTURES asset. Within the chart SILVER FUTURES are forming this gigantic bear-flag-formation in which the price action is now testing the lower boundary a next consecutive time, as the boundary has been tested already over four times this increases the possibility for massive bearish pressure to show up once the price action actually formed a breakout below the lower boundary. Within this whole structure as the price action formed several consecutive lower highs and several lower lows a major pullback and continuation with an increase of bearish momentum and bearish pressure to the downside is not uncommon. With these terms in the perspective there are several important analysis factors to consider within the next times. Especially an further increase within the bonds, t-bills and the DXY will support the bearish scenario for Silver and then it will be necessary to determine the actual momentum setting up. Once the SILVER FUTURES completed the major gigantic bear-flag-formation the target-zones will be firstly within the 20.5 area, after that the 18.5 area, and when the price action reaches such a momentum that a reversal in this area is not possible in any case the next important determining target-zone will be within the 15.5 area. We keep an eye on the dynamics. In this manner, thank you everybody for watching the analysis, support from your side is greatly appreciated. VP
COMEX:SI1!
by VincePrince
4
Reverse Triangle (ABCD) set up, D leg of the bullish CypherLooking at the Monthly Chart of the TLT 20yr bond etf. I see a large ABCD Pattern Set up. The Initial Triangle has not completed. Currently there is heavy selling in Bonds (C leg sell off to D leg of the bullish cypher) The Trend Line was breached, and now the sell off is acting like a Magnet to retest 2008 lows. It's worth noting this sell off appears to be A bullish Cypher pattern set up Around D leg. This set up is also tie to the USA real estate market. Based on the 18 year real estate theory, we're only 13 years removed from the 2009 financial market lows. Also based on the 18yr real estate theory, I see a project crash around 2027-2028. Which is likely due to a property tax crisis. At the bottom of the chart you'll see the Stochastic has already bottom, however the AD is still in overbought territory. You want to be buying when both the AD and the stoch are bottom together like in 2008-2009 (see white box).. Dollar cost averaging into the 20yr bond etf is not a bad idea either. With Bond yields currently over 4% and likely to reach 6%-7% before the TLT finally bottoms is a good hedge. I also like the fact in the future, I can write cover calls against this position, which will lower my cost basis even more in the future. I'm not looking to short bonds here, i'm a long term buyer of the dips with a breach of $90... price action could take this below $84, possible $78 but $84 is my target based on the last recession in 2008. Dollar Cost Avg for the win long term for the next 20yrs
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by moneyflow_trader
3
$DXY $TNX $VIX stronger than previous recent runsGoing 2b away today meeting with partners. This post might just be the only one today TVC:DXY This is a pretty strong trend. TVC:TNX That last move was stronger than previous, look at the RSI. 10Yr #yield. TVC:VIX This move was also with more strength than previous moves. Conclusion: Our call to end BULL run was spot on. Should've went BEAR, it's what we thought but didn't want to rush. However, we did say that risk was towards the DOWN.
TVC:DXY
by ROYAL_OAK_INC