US 2-Year T-NoteHey Traders
We have US 2-Year T-Note, all my weekly fundamentals are showing a nice drop from from supply zone bounced out and is looking strong to sell down, I will be waiting for a pullback to my sell limit marked off on chart.
When I am lining up a set up I always use the daily TF to place a sell limit or buy limit from supply zone or demand zone.
Please like comment and follow cheers
This chart material is for education purposes only / Demo account should be traded only
Bondshort
This chart pattern suggests yields are going higherUS10Y remains in an established uptrend on the daily chart, and Friday's bullish engulfing candle suggests a swing low has formed and more gains are to follow.
But having looked back at price action since the April low, we note that prices are yet to break the low of a bullish engulfing candle if it has formed after a pullback or period of consolidation. Granted, there are one or two of those engulfing candles that do not fit the exact description (as an open or close is out be a few ticks, meaning it has not truly engulfed). But we've relaxed the rules to note bullish candles that show clear range expansion over the prior candle.
And if that pattern persists, it looks like the 10-year yield (and likely yields across the curve) are at least going to make an attempt to retest or break their cycle highs.
Why did I know that bond yields were going to fall?To obtain this information, we need to look at four things:
-Fed Rates: The Federal Reserve's interest rates decisions can have a significant impact on financial markets and the overall economy.
-US5Y (US 5-year Treasury bonds): Yields on US 5-year Treasury bonds are an important measure to assess market expectations for short-term interest rates and investor sentiment regarding the economy.
-US10Y (US 10-year Treasury bonds): Yields on US 10-year Treasury bonds are also a key benchmark to evaluate investor expectations for medium-term interest rates and market risk perception.
-US30Y (US 30-year Treasury bonds): Yields on US 30-year Treasury bonds provide insight into investors' long-term expectations for interest rates and confidence in long-term economic stability.
Monitoring these indicators can provide valuable information about the direction of interest rates, market sentiment, and the overall health of the economy.
If we observe these three together, we can see that the maximum point marked with a red rectangle, the US5Y, is the only one that violated that high. This suggests that the movement in the US5Y was a manipulation (liquidity pool), as none of the other bonds violated the high. Also, the DXY (US Dollar Index) did not violate it and has already created a lower low. This indicates that we can expect the completion of this move in the DXY and a more aggressive decline in bonds.
Prepare a down-moveT-Bonds habe headed for lower aims. Buying Power is not amazing and yields are poised higher into 2022.
Bond Yield should DIP temporarilyBond yields should be dipping temporarily today after FOMC meeting and FED rate decisions. This is also evident on teh technical charts.
Yield price has to do a retest of the recent low (or nearby) before heading off continuing the reversal.
Lets see if it works out.
Sell Signal: 171'05Taking a on a range breakout play to the downside. Stop above the high of the day. Hopefully we have some acceleration to the downside
T Bonds Yield "Symmetrical Triangle" looks to break out up?T Bond yields have largely remained in a range outside the spike highs, and lows experienced earlier in the year. Given the FED's reluctance to lower rates any further despite high unemployment figures, and tight global economic activity, higher real inflation all which are undermining the Nasadq right now. Are the chickens coming home to roost? Will the FED allow rates to back up in order to have room for a continued lowering down the road? Those are the pressures I see building not to mention the gold/silver canary in the coal mine rally heating up. If the .TYX breaks out to the upside here, I would expect an overeaction that could push 30 year yields above 2.0. If this happens, I'll be selling my current holdings in TMV (Short Bonds). Good luck all, Jay.
#de30y - Please, please take the money ;-) #eurobonds #ecb #fedPlease, please take the money and keep it forever. Repayment is just like interest payment - devil's stuff, that's why the investors like to pay the interest to the (above all, God like) German government, so the burden of economic decision is taken away from the investors. The honorable and cheered government can distribute the money to all big companies and their shareholders, as well as to our EU-Friends. (Irony off)
1st target: - 0.9% p.a.
2nd target: - 1.5% p.a.
3nd target: monetary reform
Greetings
Stefan Bode
US 10 year bonds high risk as yield curve shifts (inverts?)Safety in the bond market is at the very short end (as short rates rise, can reinvest at higher rates) and the very long end (rates should decline as economic news deteriorates due to stalled Chinese economy). Most risk is in the 10 year range.
Reinversion of Sovereign Debt Yield Curve (10YR-03MO)10's minus 03 Mo's Reinversion of Sovereign Debt Yield Curve
19:34:22 (UTC)
Thu Jan 30, 2020
ZT1! P-Modeling Pt 1. 2 Year T-Note Futures. Extreme CajunZT1! 2 Year T-Note Futures Extreme Prediction Modeling Architectures
The following is an very experimental Extreme Long Range Prediction Model, using quantum graphing decoding protocols that were developed to tease out very complex long range modeling architectures... This has mostly common sense schematics outlined..
Find the 2 year cycle patterns.
Decode the Matrix Residual from those patterns.
Copy/Paste correct residuals into hyperspace.
Gather Geometric Support thru Regression/Vector blueprints of ecosystem.
Post idea and wait...
I do not expect to be right. Fully..
But, this is potentially a full ecosystem reset ...
Laugh now... Cry Later.. Doubt is an illusion to the truth... Doubt now, Laugh Later..
Failure is a necessary component of success. ;)
Welcome to the Hyperspace and thanks for pondering the unknown with me,
Glitch420
US30Y - Mankind’s greatest fear is Mankind itself.Hi, today we are going to talk about US 30-year Treasury bond and its current landscape.
We observe a new historic 30-year Treasury bond with high selling volume, which probably, are going to unleash a devastating selling pressure over the asset, that could outflow to Gold (XAUUSD) and Silver (XAGUSD), there is label as heaven assets. That even after the recent surge, could be wrongly tagged as already overpriced, since the clear signals of the recession being screamed by the US indicators such as inverted yield curve, and the numb reaction of the market on the FED cuts (usually took as a green flag for the bulls). This landscape shows us that the smart money is getting out of the market, going into heaven assets, hedging positions, and even Fiat Money.
Germany itself its already working in countermeasures (opening a possibility to spend extra $55 Billion) to face this possible recession, there the numbers are slowing down too, which is happening across the world, signal that this plague it's justing starting, spreading, so even if certain commodities start to look tasty, try to avoid them and focus on heaven assets. Winds of fear and uncertain are getting stronger each day, stay safe out there — those who remain liquid after this storm is going to have juicy opportunities to get in.
Thank you for reading and leave your comments if you like.
Short Bonds on Retest w/ Concurrent SPY rallyTL;DR short bonds for the week until FOMC decision 6/19/19 with no more upside pressure, consolidating at current level with volume. SPY is 70 points off of high and is aiming to test that resistance a 3rd time in this year.
Fundamentally: SPY is about to reach all time highs, with some more support as a fed rate cut is predicted (bringing hope in the short term). While a China Trade deal is still uncertain, Trump seems determined to make one at G20 end of this month. It seems the market has taken a hopeful turn leading up to the meeting and do not have hard economic data to trade off of this week of 6/10/19. 6/19/19 is an FOMC decision, however, where interest rate may be cut sending bond prices higher. Bonds and Equities could both rise on this news.
Technicals: 10yr reached the same highs experienced nearly a year ago with volume as stocks were sliding. Now they have reached the zone without going down to test any of the broken resistance levels as supports and bulls are failing to drive it further. The point-of-control shows significant "gravity" (market profile) down at the ~124'28 level which it could go as low as to test.
R:R: Local High 127'16 (Stop Loss), Profit Target 124'28, resulting in ~4:1 reward.
May take a breather hereGood day folks,
TLT has been on a very bullish ride since November, however it should correct a bit in the short term.
The RSI is in the roof and resistance started to show up at 122. There is also a gap to be filled at 116, which is my target.
Following is my position: CALL TBT 2019JAN18 36.00 (filled @ 0.43$)
*I will be at the cottage next week and it is fairly isolated, so I won’t be able to update. I will monitor my position from time to time using a signal booster, but that’s all.
Have a wonderful Christmas with your family and friends!
LONG 10Y YIELD, LONG USD, SHORT BONDSFundamental idea that term premia should revert back to historic norms supports this trade.
