Why did I know that bond yields were going to fall?To obtain this information, we need to look at four things:
-Fed Rates: The Federal Reserve's interest rates decisions can have a significant impact on financial markets and the overall economy.
-US5Y (US 5-year Treasury bonds): Yields on US 5-year Treasury bonds are an important measure to assess market expectations for short-term interest rates and investor sentiment regarding the economy.
-US10Y (US 10-year Treasury bonds): Yields on US 10-year Treasury bonds are also a key benchmark to evaluate investor expectations for medium-term interest rates and market risk perception.
-US30Y (US 30-year Treasury bonds): Yields on US 30-year Treasury bonds provide insight into investors' long-term expectations for interest rates and confidence in long-term economic stability.
Monitoring these indicators can provide valuable information about the direction of interest rates, market sentiment, and the overall health of the economy.
If we observe these three together, we can see that the maximum point marked with a red rectangle, the US5Y, is the only one that violated that high. This suggests that the movement in the US5Y was a manipulation (liquidity pool), as none of the other bonds violated the high. Also, the DXY (US Dollar Index) did not violate it and has already created a lower low. This indicates that we can expect the completion of this move in the DXY and a more aggressive decline in bonds.
