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Bondtrading

US10Y: Hit the 1D MA50. See how to trade if it breaks.The U.S. Government Bonds 10 YR Yield has turned bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 42.524, MACD = 0.005, ADX = 44.101) and since last Friday it has been trading on the 1D MA50. That was the first test of this trendline in 2 months and even though yesterday's candle closed under it, we don't have a decisive breakout yet. A candle considerably below it, should test the 1D MA100. This is part of the larger Channel Down and a crossing under the 1D MA100 validates that this is the new bearish wave. The 1D RSI already is inside a mirror Channel Down pattern as April 15th-May 15th. Our perspective is long term bearish in any case but if the 1D MA100 holds, you may trade within the Channel Down and the circles for short term buy and sell entries. Our long term target is raised a little higher on the 1.1 Fibonacci extension (TP = 3.500%). See how our prior idea has worked out: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:US10YShort
by InvestingScope
US10Y: Rejection at the top of the 1W Channel Down. Prime short.The U.S. Government Bonds 10 YR Yield may still be bullish on its 1W technical outlook (RSI = 59.113, MACD = 0.016, ADX = 38.613), but this week's candle is getting rejected at the top of the 1 year Channel Down. If it closes in red it will be the first in almost 2 months and a clear technical signal that a bearish reversal has started. The 1W RSI has also started to reverse. As a consequence, we are turning bearish on the US10Y as of now, targeting the 1.1 Fibonacci extension (TP = 3.480) where the previous LL was formed. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:US10YShort
by InvestingScope
US10Y Expect to see a new High.The U.S. Government Bonds 10 YR Yield has turned bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 60.193, MACD = 0.003, ADX = 38.653) as it crossed above the 1D MA200 again, with the 1D MA50 following right under it, with the two on an emerging 1D Golden Cross. We have anticipated that rebound from the HL of the Channel Up on our previous idea and our medium-term target (TP = 4.600%) is intact. If the 0.786 Fibonacci level breaks, we will buy after the first 1D MA50 pullback. The 1D RSI is also posting a similar early rally sequence to April-May 2023 and December 2022-January 2023. See how our prior idea has worked out: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:US10YLong
by InvestingScope
US10Y: Bullish long term.The US10Y is being rejected on the 1D MA200 after a HL rebound at the bottom of the 1 year Channel Up. The 1D technical outlook turned bearish again (RSI = 42.660, MACD = -0.055, ADX = 36.524), same with the 1W timeframe (RSI = 43.184), so this is still an early buy opportunity for the long term. The 1D RSI patterns among the three bottoms so far are similar and one more pullback to the HL would be ideal for the most comfortable buy entry until the 1D MA50 is crossed. Our target is towards the 0.786 Fibonacci level (TP = 4.600%). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:US10YLong
by InvestingScope
1
US10Y: The goal from now on should be to buy the bounce.The US10Y is approaching an oversold technical state on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 34.650, MACD = -0.086, ADX = 44.537) as selling was accelerated this week after failing to get close to the 1D MA50. The long term pattern is a Channel Up and the decline since Octobet 23rd is the new bearish leg. The one prior hit the 0.5 Fibonacci level of the rally and then rebounded to the 1D MA50 with the 1D RSI approximately on the same levels as today (S1 Zone). Consequently, our goal from now on is to start buying on dips and aim for the 1D MA50 and in particularly the 0.5 Fibonacci level from whatever bottom the US10Y makes now (modest estimate TP = 4.575%). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:US10YLong
by InvestingScope
US10Y: Channel Up intact but first time on a Bearish Divergence.US10Y continues to rise inside a long term Channel Up, with its 1D technical outlook bullish (RSI = 57.618, MACD = 29.942, MACD = 0.116). The 1D RSI though is for the first time in the recent months under a LH bearish divergence so for the first time the probabilities for a bearish reversal get stronger. Consequently, if the price crosses under the Channel's bottom, we will see and target the 1D MA50 (TP = 4.600). Until then, we will but on the first 1D candle that closes under the S1 level, aiming at a +10.70% rise (TP = 5.185). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:US10Y
by InvestingScope
US10Y: Short term pullback ahead.The US10Y hit the top of the five month Channel Up, which started after a 5 time hold on the Support Zone, while the RSI shifted to LH (RSI = 68.642, MACD = 0.088, ADX = 56.354). Having completed a common +12% increase, we get the same sell signal as all prior Higher Lows. Our target is Fibonacci 0.5 (TP = 4.315%), highly likely on course for contact with the 1D MA50. Prior idea: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:US10YShort
by InvestingScope
1
US10Y: Excellent long term sell opportunity.The US10Y turned neutral on the 1D timeframe today (RSI = 51.795, MACD = 0.074, ADX = 33.857) after it got rejected on R1 two days ago. It is likely to see a sharp fall as on the March 2nd rejection, and in that case S1 and S2 won't pose any bullish pressure to the downtrend, nor should the 1D MA50 and 1D MA200, which in the past 12 months haven't had any such significance. Consequently, we consider the current level early enough for a low risk sell position on the long term, targeting the S3 (TP = 3.300%). As you see, the trading structure follows quite similar legs since November and right now we are most likely on a leg 2. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:US10YShort
by InvestingScope
9