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Bondyield

10Y U.S Bond Yield Signaling Rotation from Growth to Value StockTVC:US10Y I'm just looking at the 10Y U.S bond yield to try and better pinpoint the overall macro conditions to expect for the equity market this year. Based on my technical analysis, 10YUS yield is currently trading in an Elliot Wave 5 wave ABCDE pattern, it's inside a triangle that seems to also be the extension of a cup and handle bullish formation. The (D) pattern just reached the top of the triangle pattern, CCI indicator is also on the higher end which indicates the likelihood that this pattern will play out. Right now it looks like it's headed to the (E) phase of the pattern, which is the final phase of the correction before initiating a strong uptrend that could have the 10YUS yield reach 2% or higher (even potential of going pre-pandemic levels). Fundamentals also align with my theory that bond yields will fall from here on until about March, which is also when FED is expected to reverse QE (quantitative easing). After the (E) phase of the EW has been reached, I suspect a massive breakout in bond yields, which can cause a drop in equity markets along with an overall sector rotation from growth to value stock.
TVC:US10Y
by TheRealWolfette
Bonds and the vitality of the market and overarching economy.In this chart, I find it important to (as an economist) monitor treasuries and bonds, luckily Tradingview has us covered there. The next few charts will be some economic correlations so we can better understand the economy before I get into the meat and potatoes of this system . As you can see, bonds and treasuries are dropping which indicates selling. Big name bond investors are spooked, and looking at it from this perspective I can see why. Take a second to think back to the start of 2020 and the 'thing that wont be named'. Think of ALL the BS that has happened in this timeframe, If I had big money in bonds right now, I would be spooked myself. I will be getting into detail in a later economic chart about just some of the crap that must be on big investors minds.
FRED:DGS30
by Joshuakm
INTEREST RATES - Tracking Minor Waves - Wave iv of Wave 5Just following on from my 10 bond yields idea back in November - Ideas linked below in related ideas. AriasWave just keeps getting better and better so now we have a stack of evidence telling us when the show will end. Below I will link ALL RELATED IDEAS mentioned in the video. THIS MARKET IS THE REASON WHY EVERYTHING IS THE WAY IT IS RIGHT NOW. But all that will change soon and so will the world. Not that it hasn't already. This is why I love the waves. Please LIKE and FOLLOW to get notification of updates and future posts.
TVC:TNX
by AriasWave
3
This Signal in Bond Yields Will Predict the Next Recession.After one of the most unexpected years, I thought I should take a step back and look at macroeconomics a little bit, at one specific chart that I've been watching. That is the German Government 10-Year Bond Yield (DE10Y). I've been anticipating a signal in that chart that will indicate massive shift in global market trends and will bring us closer to the next imminent recession. That signal is the breaking of the decades-long descending wedge. The momentum is still bearish, and this week the price got rejected at the upper line of the wedge. If this continues downards, then the economy remains in the same state. Central banks are printing currency at an unprecedented rate, and inflation is showing on commodoties and stocks and everything else. Governments are sinking more into debt, and the best place to put your money remains the stock market. That is until this wedge breaks. Because when it does, the bond yields will accelerate upwards. It will become more costly to borrow money. And the economy will slow down again. But this time, it is slowing down while everyone is extremely leveraged and deep in debt. We want to maximize our profit but we do not want to be caught in that state. That is why I pay attention to this chart and the DXY. There are many charts that can indicate the same outcome, but I choose to focus on one only that does the job. Now according to some Fibonacci levels, I predict another touch in October 2021. By then, perhaps the majority of zombie companies will have declared bankruptcy. Is it too soon for that? Will government regulation delay that even further? No idea. Too many factors to watch. So let's keep watching this one key chart.
TVC:DE10Y
by TechNerdOmar
BOND YIELD - Wave E Ending Soon - 20% Interest Rates AheadIf you haven't seen THE ULTIMATE BOND YIELD ANALYSIS VIDEO please see below. The Wave E Since 1981 is coming to an end which will probably cause some issues among the debt laden. A swift reversal should occur after the completion of this pattern. The FED thinks they are in control of interest rates but the truth is they are just following the bond yield. They think that by buying bonds forever they can keep rates down. The reality is that the markets are in control. This either marks the end of Wave B or Wave 2, I just don't have data going back far enough to know for sure. Either way there will be fireworks ahead for the markets, the minimum expectation for this move is 20%. Please LIKE and FOLLOW to get notification of updates and future posts.
TVC:TNX
by AriasWave