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Bondyields

STARS ALIGNING FOR THE EURO Looking at the yield spread between the German 10-year and US 10-year bonds, the Euro may be undervalued giving more potential to the upside. Though the correlation between the prices of EURUSD and the bond spreads may not be perfect, in hindsight we have seen prices trail this phenomenon. Asset managers and hedge funds have been placing big bets pushing net long positions in favor of the EURO by 12% since June. However, this bullish sentiment for the Euro may already be signaling an over-crowed market as exposures reach bullish extreme levels. The sentiment for the Dollar has been diminishing on the negative impacts of the virus. We have seen 90% reduction in Net long positions since the beginning of June. We have also observed a bearish extreme signal as net long contracts reach all time low. The dollar index is reflecting the perception of large speculators given the sustained decline in the past week. EURUSD technical setup see prices above the monthly highs of May @1.1139. We would expect support to hold at this level for further push to the upside. A 30-year seasonality cycle may also support the bullish play for the Euro. EURUSD rest above the 200 EMA on the daily time frame. In our opinion, any improvements in the daily incidents of the virus may invalidate the bearish outlook for the dollar
Long
by dynamiquebd
2
10 yrTreasuries look to be signaling that yesterday & today are in fact buy the dip we have risk on sentiment coming next couple weeks. If we check the weekly RSI 10 yr yields r very overbought, coincidentally so are all major indices RSI weekly indicators. Conclusion is we are in the final chapters of the bull market since March and another crash is imminent. But will likely be another opportunity to buy the best dip before another massive bull market over the next few years.
TVC:US10YLong
by Big_Mike716
GBP/ AUD On the Pound Aussie we have a 222 pattern, and right now im waiting for the AMP RSI and HSI to trigger a signal which might Happen here in 7 minutes. Now, on to the fundamentals... the 5 year Pound Bond Yields looks like its wanting to form a double bottom which could attract more investors into the pound if it does actually bring value to the pound. I chose the 5 year bonds as short term investors might look to get in and out and this pattern is on the 1H timeframe. The 5 year Aussie Bonds Yields are in the process of trying to make a Bat Pattern and still has a way to go. and when this happens i can see investors flooding into the Aussie. Now the COT data is interesting both currencies are being driven by the Commercials and both pairs are stepping close to the Zero Line. However, the Pound did have more Favor of selling pressure being relieved. With nearly 18,000 orders of relief. we had 10,000 orders of shorts get taken off the table by the Non-Coms Short for profit taking and we also had 8,000 orders of commercials delievering on their contracts. Now, this pattern might not work out, but the educated guess here out weighs just having technical analysis only. im not looking to take this trade to the moon, but i am looking to capture some pips on the correction before the pound makes another run down.
Long
by ARegularGuy
FR US yields vs EURUSDInterest rates are crucial in the movement of currencies. The blue is EURUSD. Those things are not 100 percent correlated but it is something that needs to be paid attention to. In this post I will demonstrate the relationship between French American bond yields (interest rates) differential and EURUSD. We use 2 principal yields 2 yearly and 5 yearly composite differential. As you see, once the yields differential hits the resistance or reversal level (here we use DeMark and Camarilla reversal levels) - there is a reaction in EURUSD. EURUSD keeps moving some 30 pips more (fakeout?) and then turns as well. On weekly differential chart we see that the differential is at 0 level after a poor bullish breakout. There is also fractal pattern in play. We also see DeMark monthly pivot squeeze on 60 min (DeMark squeeze predicts volatility and turns in the markets). You may also use German yields instead of French ones - not much difference actually. Both American and European yields are in their lowest levels. German ones dropped below 0.
TVC:FR02YEducation
by ICFX