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Bondyields

DJIA/Gold Ratio & 30-year Bonds/Russell2000 in Phase Transition!The Dow Jones (IA) / Gold Ratio and the U.S. 30-year Treasury Bonds / Russell2000 Index Ratio are coinciding at key levels. Both ratios are at historic turning points, foreshadowing their respective Phase Transitions! (and as such, indicating highly volatile, multi-standard deviation moves in the global equity indexes.) The title chart is an extended (120 years) view of the ongoing DJIA / Gold analysis, this time applying the same metric as used in the earlier US 30-year Treasuries / Russell2000 Ratio analysis; ... For easy comparisons. U.S. Market Capitalization / U.S. GDP now having exceeded 2.75 while the Historic Norm (not the low) remains 0.78 - i.e. ~70% below current levels(!!) - , it is rather self-evident that these phase transitions are likely to result in major (equity) market declines, and on a global scale. U.S. Margin Debt / U.S. GDP has also surpassed all previous, historic records (by a very wide margin!), not only in nominal measures but also in relative terms! I.e. Once this trap door opens (forced liquidations??... The most likely, least resistance path, catalyst) an initial 20%-25% decline in the SP500 would be well within the minimum expected.
TVC:DJI
by Nemo_Confidat
22
US10Y The critical trend-line.A lot of talk is being made in 2021 about the bond yields and personally I have been following the US10Y very closely due to its effect on Gold and stocks. At the moment I have singled out the most important trend-line that should weigh heavily on the 10Y in the following weeks/ months. As you see it is the 2 month Higher Lows trend-line that started after the March 11 Low. Despite the Channel Down that has emerged since the March 30 top, this trend-line has supported the price on multiple occasions since April 15. If broken, I expect a prolonged downtrend until the end of the year. Especially if the 1D MA50 (yellow trend-line on the chart) gets tested and rejected as a Resistance. Today we've had the strongest 4H candle closing below the 1D MA50 since last August and that should tell you something. ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- !! Donations via TradingView coins also help me a great deal at posting more free trading content and signals here !! 🎉 👍 Shout-out to TradingShot's 💰 top TradingView Coin donor 💰 this week ==> alanmasters --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:US10Y
by TradingShot
4
NZD/ USD Kiwi/ Dollar &10Y Bond Yields I was stopped out on the last pattern i posted on this pair and now entered on another pattern. An alternate Bat pattern. In the white ellipses we have where the HSI Arrow printed in an area of extreme reading then PA came down out of reaction and both oscillators made it at least the 50 line respectively, and then did the HSI "Check back" that Scott Carney uses was done on the second white ellipsis. if Pa is able to close below the .7166X level we could be in a position to head down as the dollar strengthens. Its all Dependent on what the 10Y Yields hold in store. Currently waiting to see how the hour closes. i will ad pictures of the hour look and 10Y Yield synopsis too. 1H Time Frame looking for a close below the neck line for a nice ride down. the daily 10Y Yield For those not familiar with the 10Y Yield it is the true valuation of the US Dollar. The yield is inverse of the bond price as yields go up prices go down to entice investors to invest in the US Economy (Dollar) and as yields go down Prices go up to protect potential buyers from buying a low yield investment. But, where the money is made in the bond world is that when the yields go down the Bond yield is locked. so at the end of the 10 year period the US will pay the holder of the bond the yield printed on the bond regardless of what the current yield is doing. So, lets say Investor A bought the bond at the very low for lets say 100$/ a bond and he bought 100,000$ worth so that means the yield might be locked in at 2%. Lets say the investor A is strapped for cash, so he enters the bond market with his 2% yield bond it looks very enticing because the current rate is 1.5% so, Investor B approaches Investor A with saying "hey ill buy your bond for 101,000 dollars" Investor A realizes he made a profit of 1,000$ and needs the cash now so he agrees to sell it. Now, Investor B holds the 10Y Bond at 2% and if he decides to hold it to fruition then he too will make a 1,000$ profit on his investment. Now, this is why the bond rates are so important to the US dollar because it will let you know where the long term investors are looking at putting their money as good foundation for their portfolios. This is super simplified on how the bond market works and i am by no means a bond trader. So, if there are any bond traders that would like to clarify or correct me please do so i will greatly appreciate it. the technical is that currently the yields have hit a .382 retracement, and in a very strong trend prices usually bounce off the .382 before moving further. so right now we are printing an indecision candle and so we could see more upward movement for the bonds. A lot of people are worried about the bond yields making it to 2.00% so fast and that it might cause inflation and they are partly right. Because the US is going to have all this excess cash flow in the market making the dollar weaker because its readily abundant in such a short time. A 2% yields has not been seen since 2019. So, we shall See
Short
by ARegularGuy
April's FoolsIf you think the bond threat is over; it's not. It's you think the chopping is done; it ain't. It's puzzling to me that the bond market hears another 2 trillion is going out the door and it's complacent with that. I guess because it's all "paid for" by 2 trillion in taxes over 15 years (it won't be). Meanwhile, the market hears that corporate taxes are going up and decides that it's time to celebrate. Only one of these things can be true. And either the market is watching bond yields too closely so as not to notice taxes, or envisioning what 2 trillion in infrastructure money looks like and deciding that it can compensate for the tax increase somewhere down the road. It wasn't just that the market blazed ahead without really digesting the new possibilities. It's that it saw a rotation back into the same old tech plays and memery that everyone rotated out of. huh. Anyways, Gold GLD is looking pretty good, Retail Trade is looking overbought, and Consumer Staples is looking weak in the face of tech resurgence.
AMEX:SPY
by PreferredStonk
3
5 things you need to know about BOJ's Monetary Policy Meeting1. Yields: Continued to peg 10-year JGB yield at "around zero", but widened the trading bond of 10-year JGB to plus minus 0.25% 2. Purchase of ETF: Ditched its 6 trillion yen guide for annual purchases of ETF , however, it will continue to buy equities as necessary with upper limits of about 12 trillion yen. 3. Interest Scheme to Promote Lending: Established the scheme as an incentive to financial institutions' currenc account balances. The applied interest rates will be linked to the short-term policy interest rate. 4. Short-term policy interest rate: Applied a negative interest rate of minus 0.1 percent to the Policy-Rate Balances 5. Inflation-overshooting commitment: The Bank commited to cotinuing to expand the monetary base until the YOY increase of CPI exceeds the price stability target of 2 percent. MM Analysis The NI225 dropped by almost 1.5% followed by the BOJ's announcement of scraping the ¥6tn guideline and widending the trading bond of 10-year JGB. While we believe, the BOJ's recents move attempted to conduct the Yield Curve Control (YCC) policy more flexibily, keep an eye on the inflation!
TVC:JP10Y
by MacroMicro_Global
10yr Yield is not on watch mode until we cross 1.9 and the 50MAWe said in an earlier post that the continuation upwards for the 10 yr yeild is a sign that there could be a stock market pullback, that is a pretty good theory but also at the current levels really not a possibility. We are not taking into account any market issues like oh for example 2T worth of dollars pumped into the market. Those mini-bonds are not doing much even given the M1 and M2 charts this month. What we will look at is technicals and that starts with the 50 MA which we will not reach until 1.9x range and the 200MA which is at the 3 range. If we continue upwards and cross the 50 and head to the 200 then the market is in shape for a real correction. So yes our earlier trading strategy hit target and is still on the upside we are simply waiting for a touch, cross and hold above of the 50MA to make any serious moves.
TVC:US10YLong
by swimmax
Bond yields correlation with NASDAQ 100 and CryptocurrenciesAs the chart shows, after last Wednesday's FOMC announcement, the 10 Year Treasury yields broke above 1.65 for a test of 1.75 with potential move toward 2%. This is a hugely important move and is part of what has affected the NASDAQ and the recent corrections in crypto currencies. There is also the additional move out of the high growth and high performance stocks in NASDAQ to cyclicals and this can be seen in the divergence between NASDAQ and S&P 500; we saw multiple days when NASDAQ has either lagged S&P 500 or has been negative while S&P 500 has remained marginally positive. Given the correlation between NASDAQ and the crypto currencies these trends have also influenced the crypto currency trades. It is worth noting that the yield on 10 year Treasury is the basis for corporate bonds and therefore, has a significant impact on the market; in other words, higher 10 year yields higher borrowing costs. Therefore, as Jerome Powell and FOMC try to keep the current low lending rates to support and stimulate the economy, the market is pricing increasing inflation expectations into the 10 year Treasuries and this is creating increasing tension in the bond markets (for those who are familiar with technical analysis, this means increased convexivity). Conclusion: TLDR: This means we are up for a rocky ride going forward and somewhat downward pressure on risk appetite. Therefore, investors need to be more selective than before with their investment choices. If you are investing in crypto currencies make sure you know and understand the projects you invest in.
TVC:TNX
by DrCryptoPlay
Battle of the BondsA good rule of thumb is that when investors are confused they transfer to cash. Investors become confused when they get contradictory signals. Signal one; 10-year yields. They're going up, but not in a smooth orderly line; in fits and starts. Every week we get a 10 basis point jump. This is because every time the Chair of the federal Reserve gets on TV, he let's it be known that he's not just expecting to see inflation above 2%; he's actively trying to get there. Signal two; EU self-sabotaging vaccine efforts. In what can only be described as one of the goofiest screw-ups in political theater, Germany abruptly decided that fringe occurrences of blood clotting - a very preventable event in most since the invention of aspirin - was more important than the lives of people who need the vaccine and their GDP, so they canned the Oxford vaccine. Other weak-kneed leaders followed suit and we get signal three. Signal three; oil collapse Introduce the possibility of EU's vaccination efforts taking a little extra time and voila; oil is back to March 1 prices. Congrats. Go buy it now, because if there's one thing that inflation is really going to set in on, it's oil, and this Vaccine scare is a joke so it's on sale for a bit. Anyhow, this rapid deflationary event is one of those mixed signals. If the bond market is quickly trying to factor in inflation, yet the oil market is trying to factor in a drastic drop in anticipated demand, what gives. Granted some of those events are foreign while the inflationary anticipation is more domestic, in the broader market - the market that the big money operates in - this is a confusing signal. One piece of the market saying economic activity is ramping up, and the other saying that it's delayed (and JPow saying that he will not settle for anything less than 2% inflation or more). So what does this mean for you, the lowly SPY trader? Welp, who knows? It really depends on if these two elements of the market both stabilize tomorrow and Powell keeps his mount shut. In the near term, I expect a pretty rapid leg up again, and I don't think $400 is out of the question for the next few days. But I've highlighted the flow ocillator that shows an eerily similar pattern to our last bath. What is different is that the MAC-ZVWAP is much more virulent than it was a few weeks ago, suggesting that any dip would be brief. If you're looking for advice - which this is not investment advise just entertainment - it would be to be nimble and not be scared to buy if we it the 20 day ema tomorrow morning, but avoid if we reach it in the afternoon. Also don't be afraid to short. Or don't be afraid to sit this one out.
AMEX:SPY
by PreferredStonk
6
10 yr10 year bond yields approaching strong resistance here at the 200 weekly ema. I would be shocked if yields didn't reject from that level. The drop in yields should be taken well by the broader stock markets & crypto sectors as fast rising yields have been attached to rising inflation (at least that's the current narrative). The DXY is looking weak as well running into the trend resistance on daily chart & making a lower high. This looks like a good set up for the bullas.
TVC:US10YShort
by Big_Mike716
11
EURUSD AnalysisUSD is rising everywhere. See the analysis from Friday: Today's possibility is for EURUSD. Here we have a very good example of a break and test of the trendline. After the impulse decline on Friday, which broke the trend line, we see a correction right next to it and repulsion. This situation, as well as the expectation of a strong USD, allows us to look for sell up to 1.1836! On Wednesday we expect the decision on the interest rate from the Fed! If you have questions about how to trade this or another situation, contact us! To support us, like and comment!
Short
by ForexTrendline
10 year yield vs SP500US 10 yr yield curve vs the SP 500 weekly chart: I do not see any strong correlation between these two. When a market is overbought, a correction is due because of supply and demand reversal, not because of the bond curve. We have seen the market and the bond yield converge and diverge over the years. We have often seen that media tend to look for excuses when the market has a pullback. We need to remember that what behind a stock is an actual company. As long as the company can bring cash in, the stock will grow. Simple as that.
TVC:US10Y
by KrunchKitty
1
MARKET CRASH - JUNE 2022 ?Hello everyone I was doing a research about market crashes in history (what was the reason, what happened next and how it was solved) ...So I read many titles about financial instruments in US (Loans,credit cards,mortgages etc) ...yeah and those freaking BONDS...we have two types of bonds - short-term and long-term..and here comes the trouble. They should go in the same direction. That means if short-term bonds(STB) rise,then long-term bond yields (LTB) should rise as well...so what is wrong ? Every time in history before a market crash these STB and LTB yiels were going in different directions - STB were rising whereas LTB were falling. We can talk about divergence. Crash Confidence Indicator is in it s highest value since latest market crash in 2007 - that means that many investors believe that market crash is not going to happen... the same scenario was right before 2007 crash Citi group‘s indicator about euphoria or panic in the stock market is in euphoria sector and is steadily rising Another indicator..VIX ..is down 28%...that means that fear has crashed Stocks are expensive relative to 10-year average earnings. We are above number 24 which is much higher than the long-term average of 16. Relative to GDP,the US stock market looks very expensive Now look at the chart below. As you can see there is the VIX indicator, SPX (S&P500 index) and 10-y Bond (blue line). I found interesting correlations between these instruments. As you can see, before every market crash we had scenario when VIX fell and Bonds rised. Afterwards bonds lost their value,VIX skyrocketed and SPX and economy crashed. These days we have a lot of "positive" sentiment in Bonds and we are grateful that VIX is falling...really ? look at the chart...VIX is falling and bonds are rising. From history performance I expect an upcoming market crash in 2022...and in my personal opinion I expect this carsh in the beginning of June. Take it serious, I am not joking and I put a lot of my time into this research. Thank you for your time and good luck !
TVC:VIXShort
by JanKoristka
MARKET CRASH - JUNE 2022 ?Hello everyone I was doing a research about market crashes in history (what was the reason, what happened next and how it was solved) ...So I read many titles about financial instruments in US (Loans,credit cards,mortgages etc) ...yeah and those freaking BONDS...we have two types of bonds - short-term and long-term..and here comes the trouble. They should go in the same direction. That means if short-term bonds(STB) rise,then long-term bond yields (LTB) should rise as well...so what is wrong ? Every time in history before a market crash these STB and LTB yiels were going in different directions - STB were rising whereas LTB were falling. We can talk about divergence. Crash Confidence Indicator is in it s highest value since latest market crash in 2007 - that means that many investors believe that market crash is not going to happen... the same scenario was right before 2007 crash Citi group‘s indicator about euphoria or panic in the stock market is in euphoria sector and is steadily rising Another indicator..VIX ..is down 28%...that means that fear has crashed Stocks are expensive relative to 10-year average earnings. We are above number 24 which is much higher than the long-term average of 16. Relative to GDP,the US stock market looks very expensive Now look at the chart below. As you can see there is the VIX indicator, SPX (S&P500 index) and 10-y Bond (blue line). I found interesting correlations between these instruments. As you can see, before every market crash we had scenario when VIX fell and Bonds rised. Afterwards bonds lost their value,VIX skyrocketed and SPX and economy crashed. These days we have a lot of "positive" sentiment in Bonds and we are grateful that VIX is falling...really ? look at the chart...VIX is falling and bonds are rising. From history performance I expect an upcoming market crash in 2022...and in my personal opinion I expect this carsh in the beginning of June. Take it serious, I am not joking and I put a lot of my time into this research. Thank you for your time and good luck !
TVC:VIXShort
by JanKoristka
9
US30Y Time for bond yields to reverseThis is the U.S. Government Bond 30Y Yield from 1988 until today. I chose this hyper long-term chart on the 1M (monthly) time-frame as with bonds being the talk of the month as for reasons that may move stocks, Gold etc lower, I wanted to get a good understanding of what the real long-term picture is. This illustrates a clear and standard Channel Down. I have applied the Fibonacci levels on it. As you see the price is now testing the 0.618 retracement level, which is exactly on the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line). The chart clearly shows that the MA50 and the MA100 (green trend-line have been acting as a Sell Zone since at least 1995 (where we can measure). We can see that only once over these decades did the price (marginally) break the 0.786 Fib (October/ November 2018). On all rejections within the MA50/100 Sell Zone, the price always pulled back to at least the 0.236 Fibonacci level. That means that the upside is limited on the US30Y and we will most likely start seeing a bearish reversal soon. ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- !! Donations via TradingView coins also help me a great deal at posting more free trading content and signals here !! 🎉 👍 Shout-out to TradingShot's 💰 top TradingView Coin donor 💰 this week ==> xBTala --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:US30YShort
by TradingShot
13
Cryptos, Stonks, Fiat, and, Interest rates... The Next Ten YearsIn this video I give you my macro view of what is coming in the next ten years. This video is designed to give you a feel of what I believe is a likely outcome based on a combination of my different views. I have played devils advocate many times before in order to get a feel for the markets. The reason is mainly to feel it and to observe other peoples reactions. For every buyer there is a seller so the views and comments will also vary, it's human psychology. Just remember: I am not a financial advisor, I suggest using this only as a guide. Always do your own research. If you don't know the long term pattern shouldn't you be doing your research instead of just following the crowd?
TVC:DJI
by AriasWave
10-Year Notes Auction Result Is Pointing Toward Market StabilityTuesday's 3-year notes auction, Wednesday's 10-year notes auction, and Thursday's 30-year bond sale are 3 of the most closely watched auction that will be happening this week due to the recent focus on bond yields which have been a key driver of stock movements. We saw that on Tuesday, the $58 billion auction in 3-year notes was well-received, attracting demand that is well above average. This can be seen from the bid-to-cover ratio, which acts as an indicator of demand, where we saw a ratio of 2.69 for Tuesday's auction, which is stronger than both the 2.39 ratio we saw in February as well as the average ratio of 2.40. This temporarily eased the fear of an uncontrollable rise of velocity in the surge of bond yields. I believe today's $38 billion auction in 10-year notes has helped to further calm such uncertainty. Following today's auction, the Treasury sold $38 billion in 10-year notes at a yield of 1.523%, with bidders seeking $2.38 for every $1 on offer from the government. This means that the bid-to-cover ratio stand at 2.38, which is nearly on par with last month's 10-year notes auction ratio of 2.37, but lower than the average taken from the last 10 previous 10-year notes auction ratio of 2.42. While this does not indicate above average demand like what happened yesterday with the 3-year notes auction, it does shows that today's auction has demand that is consistent with recent auctions. This is a good thing because one of the things that market participants are fearful for is unpredictability and instability caused by more weak auctions that are not within expectations like what we saw in late February's auction of 7-year notes where an unexpectedly weak auction caused the market to sell-off. As such, given today's average 3-year notes auction that was within expectations in combination with the lower than expected core CPI data that was released earlier today, the fear surrounding the bond market is temporarily put to a halt once again. Tomorrow's $24 billion sale of 30-year bond will be the last straw of the week that could potentially move the market significantly in either direction. Market participants in the stock market should continue paying close attention to the situation surrounding the bond market because I believe that Treasury yields and the result of bond auctions will continue acting as an indicator of the general direction of the broader stock market throughout this week. Invest safe. This is not investment advice so please do your own due diligence! Support this idea with likes and share your thoughts below.
TVC:US10Y
by AntrePoint
2
Inflation Concerns Eases Amid Lower Than Expected Core CPI DataAmid rising concerns on inflation, today's release of Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for February is among the most anticipated event of the month. The CPI acts as a gauge for inflation, where it measures the average change in prices over time that consumers pay for a basket of goods and services. The CPI data vs Analysts' estimates is as follows, CPI: 0.4% vs Expected 0.4% CPI YoY: 1.7% vs Expected 1.7% Core CPI: 0.1% vs Expected 0.2% Core CPI YoY: 1.3% vs Expected 1.4% Note that Core CPI excludes the volatile food and energy prices, while CPI is an all items index. Considering the above CPI data that is relatively tamed, we can expect the market's concern about a spike in inflation to be eased for the time being. We also saw the 10-year Treasury yields sliding lower, and an upward push in the stocks pre-market in reaction to a positive miss in the Core CPI data. As such, I expect the broader stock market to stay relatively green today, at least until the $58 billion auction in 10-year notes that will happen later today, which may provide further indication on where Treasury yields may be headed going forward. Thus, market participants in the stock market should continue paying close attention to the situation surrounding the bond market as it will help provide you with insights on what you can expect for the day's movement. Invest safe. This is not investment advice so please do your own due diligence! Support this idea with likes and share your thoughts below.
TVC:US10Y
by AntrePoint