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Don't Ignore this Warren Buffett Metric - TBVWhy would anyone ignore a metric one of the richest persons in the world uses. Tangible book value is a key metric Warren Buffett uses for looking at companies as well as judging his own investment vehicles (Berkshire Hathaway) success. Im focused on NASDAQ:IQ IQ Iqiyi stock, and Im emboldened because of IQ's tangible book value. Its a potential grower for the next years and being at low TBV gives me confidence that its a good value now at around the 2 dollar range. I also show in this video 2 other example cases ( NYSE:GME GME and NYSE:XOM XOM) where TBV was useful to gauge value during peak fear and overselling periods. Hope you enjoy!
NASDAQ:IQLong
by ValuePig
5
EURAUD buyEurAud is moving in an upward direction lastly and follwing its daily trendline as we waiting for the retest of this daily trendline for going Long as the wait has been over and the pair has enterd in our daily trendline zone another Confluance is 200 EMA which is also showing us a buy trend and the market for this pair is Buy side we entered early but we are getting a confirmation on H1 chart after entering that is a bullish engulfing which is forming now while i am posting this anylisis so i hope it will be a H1 bullish Engulfing and the pair returns from its Daily Support Hope for the best keep safe ur capitals
Long
by Wakeel_Saab
Q&As: order bookThere are people who trade based in order book exclusively & promote these so called orderflow trading platforms, even these days. Surely, it's a great deed to learn this interesting, exotic & unusual skill, but the thing is it's completely unnecessary. The real use cases for DOM aka LOB aka order book aka Level 2 data are mitigating adverse selection, reducing market impact & spotting potential counter agents. If you think deeper, all these issues are really all about position sizing and nothing else, you can operate as big as it's possible (depending how much diminishing returns you can let go), and the only thing that can help you figure it all out is order book. The one & only principle of orderbook analysis is to understand where's us (operators), and where's them (ones who just need to be filled), be nice with yours & be a nice counter agent for them. It's very simple, clients place big orders that immediately stand out. Everything else is us, we're spreading our orders equally all around the book. For some reason not many think about it, but as a maker it's good to not only provide liquidity aka make the market, but also to consume these huge limit orders if it lets you to offload some risk or to open a position if the prices are good. By doing so you always make the market better, the faster and in more clear fashion the market activity is unwinding - better for all of us. If you look at order book histogram and imagine it turned horizontally, you'll see peaks & valleys. So being inside a loading range (past a level) or nearby risk offloading areas (predetermined exit areas), you spread your limit orders the way they kinda fill these valleys, and you can also use market orders to kinda smooth the sharp peaks in order book. That's how you reduce your market impact.Your impact will start being too high when by filling the valleys you'll be creating new peaks, and by smoothing peaks you'll be creating new valleys. Easy enough? All the wise-ass reinforced learning & stochastic control models will output the same behavior, just a bit worse because they'll never defeat your "feel". They way you can process a feedback loop, as an organic, is DOPE. By monitoring your position in the queue you can decide to replace some limit orders that sit deep to somewhere where probabilities won't be your enemies. If you're not in the first 5% of the queue at these places, your're prone to adverse selection. Closer you are to the front of the level, the worse position in the queue is ok. Negligible but stable adverse selection has a huge negative long term impact, should be taken very srsly. In theory, it makes sense to care about order book as soon as you start trading more than 1 lot or if 1 lot is already a serious size on a given instrument. In practice, when you notice a statistically significant drop in revenue per lot on a given instrument, minding all other factors are equal, it's time to open dem books.
LSE:DOMEducation
by gorx1
The Philosopher : Invisible HandsMarket sentiment is a fuzzy concept. In its most basic sense, it’s the aggregate beliefs and moods of actors that comprise the total market. It’s tough to measure, gauge and test. And so, it’s often discarded completely or superfluously used to confirm one’s own biases. But learning how to play the player (market sentiment) is vitally important because in the end, it’s these beliefs that move markets. from 𝖳𝗁e Philosopher interview in Steven Drobny’s book The Invisible Hands : "By sentiment I do not mean some kind of vague general feeling or emotion. I mean the reflection of people’s beliefs, which are based on something real and tangible, which will change their actions. Although beliefs tend to be driven by fundamentals, people and markets are very slow to fully incorporate macro information, and when they do the results can be overly dramatic." Our beliefs drive our actions but our opinions don’t always properly reflect reality — they are often based on faulty logic. This is especially true when dealing with the extreme complexity inherent in markets. Soros remarked on this concept when he said: "If you consider our position as human beings trying to understand the world in which we live, you will find that we cannot confine our thinking to subjects that are independent of our thinking. We must make decisions about our lives and in order to do so we must hold views that do not qualify as knowledge, whether we recognize this or not. We must have recourse to beliefs. That is the human condition" . Through heuristics and various mental models (some purposefully constructed, many passively adopted) we form a lens and filter in which we distill the information of the world and markets. And because the quality and accuracy of these mental filters differ significantly from actor to actor, market mispricings and Soros style false trends occur. Here’s 𝖳𝗁𝖾 Philosopher again: "The uncertain nature of the economic future and our flawed attempts to understand it are a permanent source of market mispricing. The economy is not easily predictable, but the reactions of policymakers and the persistent errors in human expectations are. The natural extension of Keynes’ beauty contest is that animal spirits are not irrational and because they are not irrational they can be anticipated." "To illustrate this idea let’s imagine there are two states of the world, and although each is quite reasonable, one is more likely than the other. Unfortunately, the human brain is not wired to understand probability very well. We are particularly bad at understanding low probability events, which we tend to think of as either inevitable or impossible. Therefore, a very small change in the underlying fundamental probability can sometimes cause wild swings in sentiment because the potential outcome went from impossible to inevitable, whereas the underlying fundamentals did not move substantially. Shifts in sentiment cause markets to move much more frequently and violently than shifts in fundamentals do." "Most economic and market research is overly focused on core outcomes. If you ask people what they think will happen in the future, they will often tell you what they think is most likely to happen. For example, let’s say that something, “A,” has a 60 percent probability of occurring. If you ask 10 different people what will happen, they will all tell you that “A” will happen. Then you post a poll saying everyone believes that “A” will happen. But if you change the 60 percent to 40 percent and ask people the same question, they will respond that “B” will happen. Changing the probability only 20 percent swung the “expected outcome” from 100 percent “A” to 100 percent “B.” This is how I see my role in terms of predicting market sentiment. I do not go around asking people how they are feeling, but I look for cases where a small change in fundamentals could cause a large change in how people perceive the fundamentals." The idea is that we keep testing the quality of our beliefs against the market and reality while developing a sense for what the other dominant beliefs in the market are. Developing this “sixth sense” for markets helps us on multiple levels. First, it cleanses our own destructive mental biases, as Van tharp said: "We typically trade our beliefs about the market and once we’ve made up our minds about those beliefs, we’re not likely to change them. And when we play the markets, we assume that we are considering all of the available information. Instead, our beliefs, through selective perception, may have eliminated the most useful information." And secondly, through developing our understanding of these beliefs and their drivers, we can more effectively identify instances where small changes in market fundamentals have an asymmetric impact on market sentiment, and thus price. Understanding sentiment and learning how to play the player are necessary steps for those striving to play the game with second level thinking and beyond — a step that is essential to winning in this game over the long term. So ask yourself: “Are you playing the player… or are you the player getting played?” 𝖳𝗁𝖺𝗇𝗄 𝖳𝗈 𝖠𝗅𝖾𝗑 & 𝖲𝗍𝖾𝗏𝖾 𝖡𝗎𝗋𝗇𝗌
NYSE:BLKEducation
by Zestiria
12
Hagakure : Trade Like A Samurai 🏯👺The Hagakure: The Book of The Samurai records Yamamoto Tsunetomo’s views on bushido and the warrior code of the samurai. It was written in the early 18th century and explains many principles of the Samurai warrior. Many of these same principles can be used in business, sports, trading, and investing to achieve a warrior mindset and overcome your ego and emotions along with your adversaries. Bushido Code The Bushido was a code of conduct for the Samurai consisting of 8 core principles. Righteousness Heroic Courage Benevolence & Compassion Respect Integrity Honor Duty & Loyalty Self-Control Let’s apply these same principles to success in trading and investing. Trading Like A Samurai Doing the right thing: If you have your own system, method, and process with an edge over the competition then if you follow it you should be free of guilt and regret. Knowing you are doing the right thing is a powerful psychological tactic that frees your energy and creates single-mindedness and focus of action. Confidence in yourself and your strategy : You can take immediate action to follow your strategy when you have faith in yourself and your process. Faith in action leads to less stress when facing unknown future events. Positive self talk : We must be a friend to ourself with internal self talk. Our own inner dialogue and thoughts should be positive and like that of a friend and coach not an enemy. Self respect: We must appreciate our past successes and have confidence in our path and future goals. We should never talk negatively about ourself to others. Right action and effort creates self respect, laziness and wrong action hurts it. Know yourself : Be whole and undivided in who you are and what you believe. Ensure your actions match your words and beliefs. Honor: Samurai were warriors with a sense of self worth and lived by the highest code of behavior and conduct. To abide by the principle of honor, we must acknowledge your moral responsibilities for taking actions consistent with or systems and beliefs. Doing the work consistently: We choose the method we will focus our work and effort on at the beginning of our journey. Then our path consists of executing loyally to our goals. Managing emotions, desires, and ego: The ability to use your mind and your principles to override feelings, wants, and arrogance is true power. A true samurai first defeats their self before facing any external enemy. "Study hard and all things can be accomplished. Give up, and you will amount to nothing." - Yamaoka Tesshu. Thank For Reading This, Hope You Find Something Useful In Here. Source The Hagakure : The Book Of Samurai By Yamamoto Tsunetomo ,Steve Burns.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Zestiria
13
5 MUST READ TRADING BOOKS 📚 Hey traders, You frequently ask me to share a list of trading books that I personally recommend. In this post, I gathered 5 books every trader must-read. Please, note that in that list I included the books that changed my perception of trading. Most of them focus on the psychological aspects of trading and do not teach any particular trading strategy. 📕Trading in The Zone by Mark Douglas. Douglas uncovers the main fallacies of newbie traders. He focuses on the psychological aspect of trading and its tremendous role in this game. Relying on studies of the human psyche the author teaches readers to beat the ingrained mental habits. 📔The Black Swan by Nassim N. Taleb. Even though that book is not about trading, it uncovers the aspect of probabilities in life and our perception of them. Especially, Taleb focuses on very rare and extremely low probability events that humans frequently neglect in their predictions and the impact of their occurrence in our lives. 📘The Disciplined Trader by Mark Douglas. One more book from Douglas. This paper describes the mindset of a successful trader, useful habits and traits. It is looking for reasons why most of the traders fail. The author teaches how to properly react to losing and winning trades and changing market conditions. 📙Market Wizards: Interviews with Top Traders by Jack D. Schwager. Best traders of the entire world share useful insights of trading. Top experts in the industry talk about their journey, about their path to success and share their valuable experience. 📗Trend Following by Michael W. Covel Trend is our friend. That is the axiom no one doubts. The only problem is that it is not that simple to follow the trend. In this book, Covel describes a profitable and efficient trend-following trading strategy adopt. Of course, reading these 5 books does not guarantee that you will become a consistently profitable trader but I consider them to be very impactful. I always said that a proper mindset is one of the most important things in trading and these books will help you to build it. Did you read these books? ❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section. Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
6
Book Review: Trading in the Zone by Mark DouglasSome say that trading is 10% mechanical and 90% psychological. One of my mentors once said "The simpler we make trading, the more profitable it seems to be." and it was a profound statement to me at the time... It was one of those "I heard the exact thing I needed to hear at the exact time" moments and it changed the way I traded. It is in our nature to over-complicate things because we have been conditioned to think that profitable ventures must be complex ventures from a very early age. How many times have we heard "You can't do that... only rich people get to _____." "You'll never be able to get _____ without a college education and years of hard work (working for *someone else*!)." And of course, "If trading were so easy, everybody would be doing it." We are surrounded by negative ninnies nullifying our natural need to succeed. Well, I believe trading indeed is easy, but becoming a trader... now that indeed is the hard part. In an earlier article I talk about Backtesting and its importance in determining if your trading system works, answering the question "Can this system generate a *reliable* income week after week?" Once you determine that, the question is "Can I work the system?" And that question, my fellow traders, is all about psychology. (And the point of the book at hand: Trading in the Zone.) This article rounds out what I believe will be my two most important book reviews. In my previous review of Price Action Breakdown I highlighted the processes of technical analysis as presented by the author. Using Supply and Demand we can find the movement of money in the markets and reliably place trade after trade right behind the big institutions who move those markets. There are many ways to trade using a Supply and Demand methodology. I myself came up with my own method which I call Sabre which I formulated from my years of experience standing on the shoulders of giants, following rules, managing risk, and "sharpening the saw" as the late great Steven Covey would say. However, no matter how good a system is, if not followed properly, (and in some cases if not followed to the *letter*) even the best 'systems' will produce mediocre or even negative results. For instance, there are plenty of great weight loss and weight management 'systems' out there (Keto, Paleo, Atkins, Whole 30, ...) but if one does not have a good psychology, they won't "work the system" even though they know that "the system works." It isn't until a person's *psychology* is right (i.e. that the PAIN of being overweight/unfit is greater than the perceived pain of following a system) that they will follow a prescribed system of weight management or fitness. Mark Douglas opens his book on this very topic, saying that "The consistent winners think differently from everyone else." It's not smarts, or market analysis, or a super-duper indicator that separates the successful from the unsuccessful, but one's State Of Mind , and primarily a state of mind that thinks in probabilities . Trading, says Douglas, is very similar to a casino. The only difference is that we need to think like the person behind the table dealing the cards, not the rube playing the cards. Once you get behind the table, then you can play with the Law of Large Numbers by your side: you don't care how many hands you lose... you just know that overall in the course of 100 deals / shuffles / spins that you will come out ahead if you have an edge - a system that allows you to play where the odds are stacked in your favor. For instance, if you have a trading system that is only right 30% of the time, but your winners consistently generate a minimum of 5R of profit, are you going to be upset that seven out of every ten of your trades are losers? You shouldn't be, because for every 7R in losses (7 losses x 1R) you will generate at least 15R in winnings (5 wins x 3R). Your main goal then would to find as many trades as possible to get into each and every day! (If you are not familiar with the method of trading in "R", or 'aaRrrrrr' as we pirates call it, you can review my " Trade like a Pirate " article...) The essential ingredient in developing this successful probabilistic mindset is to indeed, have a successful trading system, an edge that overall in the game of large numbers will allow you you rake in more winnings than are drawn out by your losses. And as my favorite quote from Douglas says, "Once you learn to identify patterns and read the market, you find there are *limitless* opportunities to make money." Our primary job as traders, then, is to manage risk , that our edge only allows us to take trades that meet the demands of our system, and we take every trade that meeds those qualifications. It is a rare thing, however, to find a "trader in training" willing to think that way... the beginning trader wants to find out how to be right all the time. They want to experience certainty in an environment which is random, which will lead to ultimate disappointment. Think of trading like flipping a coin, (a random event): If you can get someone to play with you where for every time the coin comes up heads they have to pay you $300 and for every time it comes up tails you have to pay them $100, would you play? Of course! Because you know that at the end of the day the money is going to consistently flow in your direction, that overall for every 2 flips you have the expectation of making $200, if 50% of the time it comes up heads (making $300) and 50% of the time it comes up tails (losing $100). If you had a magical money machine that would play with you, with these kind of odds, would you simply flip that coin 5 times and call it a day? If I could make a friendly assumption, I would say that you would sit there in front of that machine flipping that quarter hour after hour until that machine ran out of money! We traders, however, aren't playing a person. We are playing the market . And the market has (for all practical purposes) unlimited piles of money. And if we have an "edge" that pays us 3R for every time we have to pay the market 1R what would you do? You will take every...single...trade... that comes your way that meets your criteria. An amateur at a poker table might walk away because he lost all of his winnings. The market won't run out of money and will play along with you as long as you desire – at least until you reach your goals. Douglas summarizes his point saying that we will be a consistently profitable trader if we can "learn how to redefine your trading activities in such a way that you truly accept the risk, and you’re no longer afraid." And that "the consistency you seek is in your mind , not in the markets." If we want to be "In the Zone" and make ourselves available to this infinite opportunity flow, we need to develop a carefree state of mind that doesn't have any expectation about any individual trade except that "something will happen." Our goal is not to win or not to not lose, but to "get in the water" - to put on every trade that represents our edge and wait for that "something" to happen. And if your trade happens to be a loser, then get excited because that means you are that much closer to a win. With this carefree, probabilistic mindset, "losing" trades will never again produce a negative emotion. In fact, "If every loss puts you that much closer to a win, you will be looking forward to the next occurrence of your edge, ready and waiting to jump in without the slightest reservation or hesitation." Trading, according to Douglass, is ultimately a "pattern recognition numbers game." As long as we insist on "having to know" what will happen with any particular trade we will experience stress and have unfulfilled expectations. When we begin thinking (and acting) in probabilities and a series of trades, we will begin to develop an "unshakable belief in our consistency as a trader." I've recently heard it said that "Trading is one of the most amazing, rewarding, and enriching professions there is. But I wouldn't wish it on anybody!" For the most part, trading is highly psychological. As Yoda said, "You must unlearn what you have learned." What makes one a successful doctor, engineer, lawyer, Fill-in-the-blank.... those skills will contribute *nothing* to being a better trader. Finally, just like one trip to the gym won't make you healthy and fit, a single read of this book won't give you a strong mental edge to complement the technical edge of your trading system. I make it a habit to read/listen to this book at least once per quarter alongside Price Action Breakdown . Take notes. Apply. Rinse. Repeat. That's my one bit of advice for you: Don't just read this book once... read it regularly ... Like with the Napoleon Hill's book Think and Grow Rich ... If you ask anyone if they've ever read it and they said yes, ask them "How many times? Because you obviously aren't rich yet!" Even Napoleon Hill stressed that you should read his book over and over if you are going to exercise your "thinking meat" and make it stronger and stronger day by day. (By the way... you should read that book as well... but that's a review for another day.) Trade well! -Anthony
Education
by ocaptain
25
Book Review: Price Action Breakdown by Laurentiu DamirWhen I started trading I was extremely excited about the possibilities that lay before me… The dream of changing your work ethic from “working for your money” to “putting your money to work for you” was intoxicating. I took every class, read every book, followed every “guru” I thought would help me get that ‘edge’, that secret sauce, to make me a great trader. Once I discovered what actually worked, and actually *did* the work of putting that knowledge into practice, I found that trading, like so many other things, follows an 80/20 rule, where 80% of your results come from 20% of your actions. I asked myself what was really important in trading, and I distilled it down to 2 points: Psychology, and Price Action. Notice, I put Psychology first. After reading about, backtesting, sim trading, and live trading so many techniques by so may experts I have distilled (culled?) the instruments in my trading toolbox to a select few. Like that scene in Gran Torino when Clint Eastwood is teaching his young asian friend how to “be a man” and learn to fix things, he gives him Duct Tape, WD-40, a pair of pliers, and said “This will help you fix half of your problems.” www.youtube.com Similarly, I now only have 2 books that I read or listen to a LEAST once per quarter. This advice in them takes care of 90% of my trading needs. This also helps me stick to the basics. Repetition is the mother of skill and we need to constantly be reminded of (and practice) those basics. Today I wanted to share with you one of those two books: Price Action Breakdown, by Laurentiu Damir. This book is going to put you to work. Trading, like any other skill, is something you learn by DOING. You can’t learn carpentry by simply reading a book. You can’t learn painting by only reading a book… you have to take a chisel to wood or a brush to canvas to put that theory into PRACTICE. Likewise, Laurentiu puts you to work trading, lesson by lesson, concept by concept. He simply and demonstrably shows the aspiring trader that all the information we need to decide to buy or sell is right there on the chart. No indicator, oscillator, or other doo-dads are needed. As he puts it, "The best indicator you can have is your brain analyzing the raw price movements.” He breaks down the specific patterns that we as traders need to look at to “see the opportunity” on the screen, notably value areas, excess price, control prices, and rejection areas. There is no mention of chart patterns (head and shoulders, triple bottom, cup and handle, ascending triangle, blah, blah, blah…) or candlestick patterns (bearish engulfing, dojo, shooting star, hammer…) - It’s all about price action. When you look at a chart and see who is buying what and where, you can make an educated decision on where to buy and sell right alongside the institutional market makers who are moving price. Quote: "Throughout this book, whenever I will discuss about buyer and seller behavior, I am talking about the long term traders. They are the ones who move the markets, it makes all the sense in the world to study their behavior, observe how price moves as a result of their actions, and formulate concepts, rules and strategies to follow what they do, to be in the same boat as them. We have to discover their footsteps and follow them." I’m a Kindle guy, and my trading partner bought the hardcopy on my recommendation. The hardcopy is a unique piece of work in terms of its layout, font choice, and stark coloring. I don’t know if it was intentional, but the fact that it is so physically *different* from other books almost makes you give what you are reading that extra bit of attention. My friend, too, owes much of his success to the techniques in this book so I never hesitate to recommend it. I hope if you decide to get this book that you will put all the necessary WORK in that is required to put concepts into practice… to imbed it into your nervous system so you can “see the money” on the chart just like Neo could see The Matrix and easily defeat what was previously an undefeatable opponent. youtu.be In a later article I will talk about backtesting - something that every trader needs to do to build up his skill, to test a trading methodology (such as price action!), and to help keep you “in the zone” (teaser for my next book review!) so as you develop and hone your trading skills, that you will keep that skill and sharpen your trading saw day by day and enjoy the benefits of being a professional financial trader. I would say 'good luck', but luck has nothing to do with developing the skill of trading just as it wasn't 'luck' that made Michael Jordan the best basketball player or Tiger Woods the golfer in the world. It was perseverance, grit, and repetition. Happy trading! smile.amazon.com
Education
by ocaptain
21
Bearish on SCHLFundamentally, I think SCHL should be taking a beating like the hotel and airline stocks.(dropping like 50-75%) What is SCHL? Scholastic Corporation is an American multinational publishing, education and media company known for publishing, selling, and distributing books and educational materials for schools, teachers, parents, and children. Products are distributed to schools and districts, to consumers through the schools via reading clubs and fairs, and through retail stores and online sales. Why? Because NYC schools just announce a full year shut down over the weekend. this is huge. it will set a precedent for other cities to follow imo. In addition to that, SCHL has been super backwards. although they have made a website, a lot of the way they sell and make money is still old fashion. they focus on school book-fairs to generate sales, sales rep marketing the catalog and materials to teachers (FACE to Face meeting) to generate sales. then in-turn, the teachers will market it to student (FACE to Face meeting) in the class room. The point is, a lot of that will be f2f, in person, which would require the school to be open. in addition to that, you know damn well kids rather play games than read books when they are learning from home. I would start a short position around $30.55 Cover around 22.50
NASDAQ:SCHLShort
by WallSt007
NMM has a great setup, but risk of an earnings missNavios Maritime is a container ship company that transports, among other things, iron ore and grain. It's been down this year due to the trade war, but recovery is long overdue. NMM has a forward P/E of 6.35, and an extraordinarily low P/B of about 0.25. It's dividend yield is over 7%. We did get some bearish shipping data the other day, but it seems to have been an anomaly due to shippers rescheduling some of their loads in order to cut costs. Today we got news that China's iron ore imports are close to a record high, and tomorrow we should get a Phase 1 trade deal that includes an agreement buy China to buy more soybeans. These should be good signs for NMM. However, NMM next reports earnings on 1/29 and has a negative ESP of -32.77% from Zacks, so beware the possibility of an upcoming earnings miss. This is also a fairly low-float stock, so expect volatility. For low-float stocks, relatively small changes in volume can lead to big moves in price.
NYSE:NMMLong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
CPE an inexpensive bet to profit from Iran conflictWith energy prices rising and war with Iran looming, it's a good time to buy a company that exploits domestic oil resources in the United States. The problem with many such companies is that they either trade at a high multiple or their long-term prospects are very poor. Callon Petroleum, which drills oil and natural gas in West Texas, avoids those problems. With a P/E of 4.56, a P/B of 0.44, and forecasted earnings growth for the next couple years, CPE is a strong value for the long term and also should benefit from any escalation of Iran conflict in the short term. CPE has had a tremendous amount of trading volume in its current price range.
CLong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
$IVZ Strategies on a Value Growth StockIVZ has low P/E, D/E, and P/B ratios, despite growing revenue and dividends. Therefore, my 5 year outlook is bullish. I suspect the best times to buy are around a low of $19.40 for a short turnaround, but the price may get as low as $18.58 in as little as 2-3 weeks if the impulse from Jan-Feb echos the latest high. Other possible low points for the suspected echo impulse, using fib levels, are 18.65, 18.93, 19.14, and 19.29. Pyramiding your buys using these levels should give a relatively low average position for long term growth, which can be sold off, probably during the year, for a profit to adjust the weight in the portfolio back to a reasonable level to meet your portfolio diversity goals. Despite the effort in averaging down and out, I do believe it is a worthy strategy to reap greater returns rather than buying once when it looks good. The average price per book value for this stock is less than one and averages greater than 1.65, according to Yahoo. To reach equivalent value if book value remained constant, which it will not, the factor is 1.8x. Earnings are expected to rise, so book value itself will rise over time. Book value has risen 50% in the past ten years, so a 5 year price target given today's suspected low and a 1.2x oversold factor (because who sells at value?) will be 19.40*1.8*1.25*1.2 = $52.38 or about a 170% return on investment, plus another $6 in 5 year straight dividends at $0.30 per quarter. Due to the volatility and bullish/bearish runs with bulls beating bears in the end, this makes a great swing trading opportunity. When the stock trends above 1.67% monthly or 0.38% weekly, the stock is performing greater than its exponential averages: Average Exponential Monthly (%) Growth: (2.7^(1/(12*5))-1)*100 = 1.67% Average Exponential Weekly (%) Growth: (2.7^(1/(365/7*5))-1)*100 = 0.38% This is likely to occur now and less likely over the course of 5 years. Therefore, linear price increments may be more useful in determining rapid growth in earlier stages. In which case, when the stock trades above $0.55 a month or $0.13, the stock is performing better than its linear averages: Average Monthly ($) Growth: (52.38-19.4)/(5*12) = $0.55 Average Weekly ($) Growth: (52.38-19.4)/(5*365/7) = $0.13 Right now, we are in a bit of a bull swing since Dec 24th, as with most (financial sector) stocks. There is some potential to ride this out for a while, so adjust your alerts to watch for the bear once it crosses down on the average expected growths. This stock has a tendency to go up in the early mornings around 10:00AM, so that would be your time to sell if the previous week was low and would not be your time to get hopeful.
NYSE:IVZLong
by ValueMyAsk
Garden Hose Pattern on a High DY REIT... Hurray for VolatilityNYSE:NLY is a bit less bearish in comparison to the other stocks in its peer group of REIT's with Div/Yield over 10%. You can see this since its P/E ratio (using FFO) is much higher, probably due to consistently high analyst ratings and their various reasons for evaluating it with neutral to positive ratings. As of recently, it has seen a weakness in volatility. In a triangle pattern, it approaches the 10.11 price point. At this point, the trend will see an arc, and a breakout will occur. Nothing trades flat forever, because every living thing has heat. I call this a garden hose pattern... because it sort of looks like a hose spraying a jet... and because I want to... Set your price points around 10.11 and look forward to a new wave of volatility. These 3-4 cent daily arc heights are stupid. The price/book value is a bit high, so I believe this is a good point to see a market correction. I would say my advice would be to short, if I had to guess. There may be some upward momentum left, but it will not sustain for long.
NYSE:NLY
by ValueMyAsk
Book Value: $3.72 (Total Shareholder's equity/number of shares)We know...Market doesn't follow any logic. Finally the super overvalued stocks are starting fo fall . Anyway, there are very few stocks which are quite undervalued. Benjamin Graham’s Criteria for Picking Value Stocks VALUE CRITERIAS: Graham advised buying companies with Total Debt to Current Asset ratios of less than 1.10 - ODP Current Assets (in millions) 2,870 ODP Total Debt is 1,700. so 1700/2870 = 0.59 (Much less than 1.10) Current Ratio (current assets divided by current liabilities) to find companies with ratios over 1.50. About OFFICE Depot Numbers: 2870/2046 = 1.40 (a bit lower than 1.50) Invest in companies with price to earnings per share (P/E) ratios of 9.0 or less. ODP P/E is 6.8 Find companies with price to book value (P/BV) ratios less than 1.20. ODP Price (Market value) is 1,280 . Total stockholders’ equity (last quarter) is 2,120 so 1,280/2,120 = 0,6 (50% less than 1.20!) Invest in companies that are currently paying dividends. ODP, actually, is paying dividends. Following the Graham numbers, ODP is one of the very very few companies to be undervalued. It's undervalued by 76% dqydj.com
NASDAQ:ODP
by giloc