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Borisjohnson

Brexit uncertainty. Short GBPUSDBoris Johnson's Plan A can be said to have almost failed. Plan B seems to be the same. It seems that England's unremarkable withdrawal from the EU without a deal, or the postponement of Brexit, awaits us. The second is more likely. On October 3, GBPUSD had an interesting activity that forced sellers to absorb the entire upward price movement. Suppose there is an interest of market participants. And that interest is clear. We look forward to a decline in GBPUSD. The idea is positional and will be moderated in the course of implementation.
Short
by YuraM
US and China getting ready for negotiations, Brexit stuckU.S.-China trade talks kick off again this week. Negotiations between the United States and China are set to begin on Thursday. China is not going to reform industrial policies or government subsidies, that is, wanted to continue to ensure the competitiveness of its products by any means, including not very honest ones. Trump said that any agreed deal would be a 100% victory for the United States. Despite the fact that the US negotiating position is deteriorating every day (the US economy is signalling a slowdown, which is the result of the trade war, which means that the United States are interested in the deal), and the impeachment procedure does not contribute Trump to growth of his bravado and aggression in the negotiations. So the outcome of the negotiations does not seem predictable. As for the state of the world economy and the US economy, in particular, it is worth noting information about the upcoming personnel retrenchment in HSBC (up to 10,000 jobs), as well as the news that General Electric will freeze pensions for 20,000 workers. All these are extremely unpleasant signals. Recall, dollar sales remain our basic trading idea. At least this week. Our recommendation is to buy gold and the Japanese yen, despite their yesterday's decline, remain relevant. Today's entry points are close to ideal ones. Entering positions is necessary consciously, taking into account the fundamental background at that time, and also do not forget about the stops. These positions are good and prospective, but the fundamental background to relax. Any news on negotiations between the US and China will provoke a sale of gold - keep in mind. Another promising position, in our opinion, is the purchase of the British pound. A version of the agreement from Johnson was rejected by the EU and essentially sent for rework. On the one hand, the very fact of substantive negotiations suggests that the parties intend to conclude a deal. And on the other, Johnson is unpredictable. However, we believe in common sense, as well as the British Parliament, and advise to take advantage of the current uncertainty for purchases of the still cheap pound. Until October 31 (the deadline for Britain to exit the EU) there is not much time left.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by Trade24Fx
Johnson's resignation, "Japanese disease" & oil The US dollar value is growing in the foreign exchange market. Although we do not agree with the current dollar state, however that what is happening. We are conscious of the futility of trying to go against the market will, but the sensation of the illogical nature of what is happening and the current dollar value still does not pass. So today we will continue to sell the dollar. Recall that partly the strength of the dollar is in the weakness of opponents. Yesterday, for example, weak data on the leading Eurozone economy came out. Germany now not only has negative economic growth, but also a decline in inflation. And this is already a completely bad signal. Something similar was observed in Japan in the 90s (“the lost decade”) and was called “Japanese disease”. So it seems like Germany has caught the same virus. This is also supported by the fact that leading economic institutions are going to lower forecast for 2019. In this light we sell EURUSD. This week, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson may well get his vote of no confidence, and Britain will finally plunge into the abyss of political chaos. Which, will quickly turn into economic chaos. At least yesterday's data on UK GDP (the indicator fell by 0.2% in the second quarter) shows that, as do polls by British companies that are rapidly losing faith in the country's economic prospects. In general, the pound also has reasons to decline. But on the other hand, do not forget about the rule that has been developed recently: "Johnson’s weakness is pound’s strength." buying in the area of 1.2290 and selling with 1.2350. In both cases, we set the small stops. There was an increase in sellers in the oil market yesterday. In this case, everything happened according to our forecasts and expectations. As a reason for oil sales, there were conciliatory statements from the country of the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia in which he stated that "A bad peace is better than a good quarrel." That is, he confirmed the information that the Kingdom does not want the conflict to escalate. As a result, the third quarter was the worst for oil in 2019 (prices fell by almost 9%). Our recommendation for oil is unchanged so far - we sell oil. Sales target - bottoms $ 51 (brand WTI). Precisely because of the peace-loving crown prince, gold yesterday went below 1485. For us, this is a kind of watershed. While gold is below this mark, in our opinion, bears control the market situation. And this means that today we will sell gold with stops above 1285.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by Trade24Fx
GBPJPY - BUY - Cup & HandleHello traders, The GBPJPY made a large recovery on the news a no-deal Brexit has been blocked by the UK Government. There has been a nice cup shape recovery, followed by a retracement down to the 61.8% FIC level. This is also a major support zone. Johnson is now negotiating with the EU about the Irish boarder issue. Any positive news coming from the negotiations can give the GBP further upside. Long term target level is the 127% FIB level at roughly 137.00. Please let us know any thoughts below, www.forexstoreau.com
Long
by ForexStoreau
Impeachment inquiry against Donald Trump, Sino & Johnson resignStatement by US President Donald Trump that the agreement with China could be concluded “earlier than you think.” let to the volatility on the financial markets as well as gold. Considering that in the last six months there has been more than enough speculation on the topic of negotiations between the US and China, we have not rushed to draw conclusions and work not with rumours, but with facts. The facts are no specifics will appear before October. So lower gold value yesterday is a great opportunity to buy it today. But, of course, we do not forget to set up relatively “hard” stops for purchases and watch the news. British Pounds lost a half and a hundred points to the US Dollar. The reason was the growth of uncertainty around Brexit, a potential domestic political crisis and the general confusion of the country's politics. The fact is that after the Parliament, according to the decision of the Supreme Court, returned to work (3 weeks ahead of schedule), Johnson's chances of resolving the situation with Brexit until October 31 sharply decreased. And the British opposition, meanwhile, is waiting for the moment to strike ( a vote of no confidence in Johnson and his resignation). The most successful moment for the attack will be on October 17 at the end of the EU summit. If it becomes clear that there is no agreement between the EU and Great Britain, Johnson will receive his vote on a vote of confidence. So, why the pound is falling is clear - Britain is sinking deeper into the chaos of uncertainty. For our part, we will continue to buy the pound, as current events practically negate the option of “hard” Brexit. Another scenario is the next postponement of Brexit, a new referendum, new elections, etc. - Which is a positive sign the pound (in the context of Brexit). If the pound reacted with dropping against the backdrop of political news yesterday, the dollar was growing. The scandal surrounding Trump's telephone conversation with Zelensky is intensifying. Speaker Nancy Pelosi said the House would begin formal impeachment proceedings against President Trump. Against such a background, recommending buying a dollar would be strange. So we will continue to look for points for the dollar sale. Another important news for the dollar will be the publication of statistics on US GDP for the second quarter. But we draw the attention of our readers that this is the final reading. Accordingly, the probability of any surprises is small. That is, support for the dollar should not be expected. But a revision even insignificant in the direction of reduction may be the last drop that will overfill the markets patience. In the oil market, everything is developing accordance with our forecasts a decline in oil. Saudi Arabia will return to its usual volumes production ahead of schedule. At the moment, production has already reached 11.3 million bpd (a week ahead of schedule). So the incident with a drone attack and a sharp drop in oil supply is over. The price of oil, as we predicted a week ago, returned to levels before the drone attack. As for the future, the accumulated inertia may well be enough to reduce oil. So our position has reached its planned goal, as a whole remains unchanged - we give preference to oil sales. But now you need to do this more carefully. Especially in light of the news that Saudi Aramco plans to go public IPO next month. That is, attempts at price manipulations in the oil market shortly are more than likely.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by Trade24Fx
Britain & US "race to the top” eventfull countryThe Supreme Court has ruled that Boris Johnson suspended UK Parliament unlawfully. Also, Johnson gave the Queen illegal advice to suspend Parliament. On the one hand, the news is not good for the pound, because it means another domestic political crisis, on the other hand, such a court decision should lead to Johnson's resignation. The pound has recently followed the rule "what is bad for Johnson, good for the pound." So from this point of view, yesterday's pound growth just looks very logical. The weakening of Johnson’s position means a chances decrease of a “hard” Brexit. For the pound, of course, the news is exceptionally positive. So we will continue to observe with interest the chaos in Britain, but at the same time, our recommendation to “buy a pound” does not lose its relevance. However, you need to be careful. It is worth noting buyers activation of the euro against the statistics background from Germany. Indices of economic expectations from the IFO came out better than expected at fairly good marks. However, it is still too early to rejoice. Rather, this growth provides an opportunity for euro sales at relatively good prices. Yesterday the US dollar was under pressure in the afternoon. Weak consumer confidence data is the reason for that. Conference Board consumer confidence index showed a value of 125.1 with a forecast of 133.0 in September. Our recommendation on the dollar is unchanged - we are looking for points for the dollar sale. Moreover, the scandal surrounding Trump Zelensky’s call seems to be gaining momentum. The chances are low, but buying a dollar against such a background is still extremely dangerous, especially considering its current prices. Yesterday, the markets were reassured by the news that China guaranteed the American soybeans purchase at no additional cost. What can be seen as a kind of positive signal on the eve of the main meeting between the US and China next week. However, judging by the dynamics of gold, investors prefer to believe the facts. Accordingly, we do not observe serious threats to our recommendations to buy gold in the area of local daily lows. Moreover, Trump once again made it tenser. Speaking at the UN General Assembly, he accused China of a good half of mortal sins. There are no major changes in the oil market so far. Fears of another hurricane in the United States, expectations of recovery in Saudi production, as well as developments around Iran. Well, in the meantime, oil prices follow in the direction we have indicated. Recall from last Tuesday, after an increase of 15% last Monday, we recommend selling oil.
Long
by Trade24Fx
Euro and pound week, pressure on the dollar and weak NFPsBoris Johnson managed to turn into the worst premiere minister ever. His attempts to neutralize Parliament so he could complete Brexit by October 31 failed. As a result, Johnson lost a majority in Parliament. Why even Johnson’s brother disowned him left the Cabinet and the party. As we warned in our reviews, Johnson's defeats are pound’s strength. As a result, the pound after gaining lows since 2016, added about 400 points by the end of the week. So those of our readers who listen to our recommendations should have earned good money. As for the pound and Brexit. The legislation, which requires Johnson to ask for a three-month extension to Britain’s EU membership if parliament has not approved either a deal or consented to leave without agreement by Oct. 19, is expected to be signed into law by Queen Elizabeth on Monday. Readers could earn a couple of hundred points on our recommendation to buy AUDJPY. NFP data was the main statistical event of the past week. As we predicted, they turned out to be rather weak and below forecasts (+ 130K at the forecast + 160K). So, the dollar was under pressure. On September 18, the Fed is likely to lower the rate, and the dollar could be sold out. As for the Canadian dollar. On Wednesday, the Bank of Canada did not reduce the rate, and then on Friday the Canadian labour market showed excellent results, as the Ivey PMI Business Activity Index did. So sales of the USDCAD, despite its decline by more than 200 points, look like a good trading opportunity. The euro and the pound can gain a lot this week. As for the pound, the confrontation between Parliament and Johnson will continue. Therefore pound volatility explosions are quite likely. As for the euro, the announcement of the results of the ECB meeting will be the main event. There are a lot of are waiting for a new round of monetary easing from the Central Bank. If a new program of quantitative easing and rate cuts would enter into force then the euro will be under pressure. This week we will continue to look for points for gold purchases as last week, this tactic showed great results. Do not forget to sell the Russian ruble (the Central Bank of the Russian Federation again reduced the rate), as well as oil (supply on the market is growing amid the threat of lower demand). This week we will continue to look for points for gold purchases as last week, this tactic showed great results. Do not forget to sell the Russian ruble (the Central Bank of the Russian Federation again reduced the rate), as well as oil (supply on the market is growing amid the threat of lower demand).
Long
by Trade24Fx
NFP, pound growth and goldEverything develops according to the scenario described earlier - Johnson’s defeat in Parliament is an occasion for the pound growth and its purchases. However, it’s too early to relax. Yes, the pound still has the opportunity to grow for not just a hundred points, but a thousand or even more. The key threat to the pound has not disappeared yet. So you should trade cautiously. There is every chance that the ban on exiting without a deal will acquire the status of the law, which means Johnson will not be able to do anything. Even his brother Joe denied Johnson. So the streak of setbacks for the new prime minister is going on. But Johnson's failure is the success of the pound. US employment data from ADP surprised us. + 195 000 with a forecast +148 000. And the data surprised us because recently the US economy has been showing more and more disturbing messages such as GDP data for the second quarter, and business activity indices, some even went below 50. So, despite yesterday's figures from ADP, we are rather sceptical about official statistics on the US labor market. In general, today's data is more important than ever. On the one hand, weak figures will confirm investors' concerns that the US economy is losing its confidence more rapidly. And on the other hand, it will become a signal fo the Fed that it is necessary to do something. That is, the fate of the rate cut may not be decided on September 18 at the FOMC meeting, but today. Therefore the dollar may receive a double hit, from which it will not be able to recover for a long time. That is why today we recommend selling the dollar across the entire spectrum of the foreign exchange market. But we need weak NFPs for that. As for the trade war. The US and China negotiations were postponed. Now the date sounds like “early October.” That is, the confrontation will continue in September. So do not forget to buy gold.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by Trade24Fx
Johnson loses and Pound Victory, Bank of Canada and GoldWe continue to watch the confrontation between the British Parliament and Prime Minister Boris Johnson. Boris Johnson is losing another battle. On Tuesday, Boris Johnson not only lost his working majority, but he also could not initiate early elections. As we predicted, the pound strengthened. Even the weak data on business activity in the UK could not prevent its strengthening: the PMI index of business activity in the services sector came out below forecasts (50.6 with a forecast of 51.0). The dollar continued to suffer losses in the foreign exchange market. Even the euro strengthened against it. And this even though retail sales in the Eurozone came in the negative zone (-0.6%). However, despite yesterday's growth of the EURUSD, we are rather sceptical about buying euros. Gold purchases look much more attractive and prospective under the current conditions. Another Fed rate cut in a couple of weeks (100% of traders believe in) could give an upward impulse to gold for its growth in the region of 1600. Recall that one of the key arguments against buying gold is its inability to generate guaranteed profit. But the Fed's rate-cutting cycles could lead to the dollar losing its ability to generate profit and becoming not interesting to investors. The Bank of Canada announced that it left the policy rate steady. As a result, the Canadian dollar strengthened by a hundred points against the US dollar. Central Bank is not planning to cut rates in Canada saying that there are no reasons for that yat. Today, as for macroeconomic statistics, it is interesting primarily for US employment data from ADP. Weak data could trigger dollar sales - traders will not wait for official statistics on Friday and will rush to discount under weak NFPs in advance. Bears Continue To Drive The Dollar Lower so we recommend selling it since we expect a stronger wave of sales due to statistics on the US labour market. Besides, today we will buy gold and the Japanese yen. Sales of the Russian ruble and oil are also what we are interested in.
Long
by Trade24Fx
Fite for Brexit: getting ready for hot SeptemberBe concern working with the pound. Boris Johnson's decision to shut down parliament for five weeks in order ... controversial plan to suspend the UK's parliament for five weeks. The Queen has approved an order to prorogue the UK Parliament. Boris Johnson seriously set his sights on leaving without a deal. Of course, there is a chance that this is just his attempt to strengthen his position in negotiations with the EU, well knowing Johnson’s temperament, we no longer exclude the most radical scenarios. The first week of September may be decisive for Brexit: time the opposition has to pass a law that does not allow an exit without a deal. Among other options - a vote of no confidence in the government, the dissolution of the Parliament and early elections. So, it will not be boring, pound volatility in September are guaranteed. For intraday trading, this is an opportunity to make money trading with pound pairs. So we will continue to monitor the development of events and will keep our readers informed of what is happening. Yesterday's US GDP data came out in line with forecasts: + 2.0% y / y. This means that the data has been revised downward. Statistics on the US labor market will be published, in particular, data on the NFP will be published next weak, a serious driver for a powerful dollar movement is not expected. Extremely weak figures were published on consumer inflation in Germany. In general, the concerns about one of the best Eurozone economy raises. Based on this, yesterday’s comments by the future head of the ECB, Michel Lagarde, that the ECB has tools to deal with the recession and should be prepared to use them if it is necessary. Against this background, we will continue to recommend avoiding buying euros against anything. But sales of it still seems to be a good trading idea. As for the trade war. The markets did not understand whether Trump was called from China or not. New tariffs for goods from China come into force on Monday. And this means that the trade war is not over. However, in September, the Chinese delegation should arrive in Washington so the chance to stop still exists. We will continue to look for points for buying gold and the Japanese yen on the intraday basis. Moreover, safe-haven assets today are something that worth to buy.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by Trade24Fx
1
Johnson's insidious plan, US GDP and dollar’s reactionBoris Johnson asks Queen to suspend parliament. The decision will cut dramatically the time MPs will have to take action to prevent no-deal Brexit. he is going to ask the Queen to suspend parliament for five weeks from mid-September. It seems like the Queen is ready to be in. And this means that the opposition will have time until September 12 to prevent the "no-deal" Brexit. The value of the pound has fallen by 1% following news that Prime Minister Boris Johnson is planning to suspend parliament The signal is more than alarming. Chances of the "no-deal" Brexit have increased dramatically. And this means that you need to be careful. Now we consider such pound descents of 150 points as an opportunity for cheaper purchases. But with stops. Once again, we note that events are developing against the pound, for now. Data on US GDP for the second quarter will be the main event. Experts expect a slight downward revision. The GDP growth rate is expected to remain at 2 %. Our expectations are more pessimistic. The fact is that the global economy as a whole and individual countries are increasingly showing signs of a slowdown. Very indicative is the data on German GDP, which, recall, showed a decrease in the second quarter. And most importantly, the decrease was due to the slow negative dynamics of exports. That is the direct evidence of the destructiveness of a trade war. There are reasons to expect further deterioration of the situation. Thus, we will not be surprised if the data is reviewed for the worse, but not by 0.1%, but more for example 1.5%. That will shock markets and the dollar will inevitably suffer. Moreover, the dollar will be under double pressure: the reaction to weak economic data will be multiplied by the growth of confidence in the Fed rate cut in September. So today we will sell the dollar across almost the entire spectrum of the foreign exchange market.
Long
by Trade24Fx
2
GBP - Signs of a bottom beginning to form?Looking at a basket of Sterling pairs on a variety of time-frames. (You can add this to your own watchlists by copying this code: GBPAUD*GBPCAD*GBPCHF*GBPJPY*GBPNZD*GBPUSD*GBPEUR ) There appears to be some evidence of a bottom shaping on the 4-hour chart. Expecting a bumpy ride with Sterling, but I believe the Risk/Reward is looking favourable in the short term. We should see some more news from Brexit discussions over the next few hours. Let's see what happens! Hope you like the video - please give it a like if you do! Good Luck. Joe GBP Macro news The July UK government posted a budget surplus of £1.3bn compared with £3.5bn the previous year with the deficit for the first four months of fiscal 2019/20 increasing to £16.0bn from £10.0bn as spending increased and revenue growth slowed. Sterling lost ground following comments by a French official that in view of Prime Minister Johnson’s comments on the Irish backstop, the baseline scenario now seemed to be a ‘no-deal’ Brexit and President Macron reiterated that the deal could not be re-opened. German Chancellor Merkel stated that as soon as there is a solution to the Irish border issue, there will be no need for the backstop. She also stated that a negotiated Brexit would be welcomed, but Germany is ready for all outcomes and challenged the UK government to find a solution to the Irish border within the next 30 days. The comments failed to provide significant support with Sterling holding net losses on the day. EUR/GBP settled around 0.9140 with GBP/USD below 1.2150. A labour-market survey recorded the strongest increase in wage rises since 2008, but political tensions tended to dominate sentiment with GBP/USD around 1.2120 on Thursday.
Long
by Signal_Centre
FTSE 100 - Long We are currently long the FTSE 100 which has dropped over the past day on the back of Boris Johnson's appointment and the subsequent strengthening of the pound. The pound strengthened as the market hopes that initial comments by Michel Barnier the European Union's Chief Negotiator would open the door to positive negotiations between the UK and the EU. However, we believe that with the UK set to leave the EU on the 31st of October there will be pressure on sterling in particularly GBP/USD which would be positive for the FTSE100 as a large proportion of profits for FTSE 100 companies are made in dollars. Therefore we are long and will look to add to our long position just above the 7298 Fibonacci level with a view towards starting to take profit above 7700.
FOREXCOM:UK100Long
by KQMarkets
New British Prime, Yen vs.GoldBoris Johnson became UK prime minister after the decisive Tory vote. He beat Jeremy Hunt comfortably, winning 92,153 votes to his rival's 46,656. What does this mean for a pound? The entrance to the turbulence zone. The Brexit negotiations, which were essentially frozen for several months, will again enter the active phase. Johnson is known for his attitude to Brexit: exit from the EU. What does this mean for a pound? A strong decline due to no-deal Brexit. What is the likelihood of this scenario? In our opinion, extremely low. The British Parliament has already made it clear that Johnson simply will not gain votes for this. Which leads us to the logical conclusion - would not be accepted a no-deal withdrawal. This means that the current price of a pound is a great opportunity for its cheaper purchases. Is there any chance that the pound will decline more? Definitely yes. Possible decline in pound price is recommended to be used as a possibility to increase the size of the longs in it. Meanwhile, Analysts at Goldman Sachs analyzed options for investing in haven assets and concluded that the Japanese yen is a good option. Motivation - gold is too volatile. This significantly increases the risks of such investment, when the yen looks less risky. Another argument in favour of yen. This year, gold has already increased by 11%, and the Japanese yen - only by 1.6%. That is, from a position of overvalued/undervalued yen looks undervalued against the overvalued gold. Well, the final argument in favour of yen purchases - in case of interventions from the US, the USDJPY price will decline sharply. Recall, we have been recommending selling USDJPY for a long time. As for our other trading recommendations for today, they are unchanged. We will continue to look for opportunities for selling the dollar across the entire spectrum of the foreign exchange market, buying the pound against the dollar as well as against the euro, selling oil and the Russian ruble, and also buying the Japanese yen against the dollar. As for gold, considering how high it climbed, for the time being, we will trade it with no clear preference, buying from oversold zones and selling in overbought zones.
Long
by Trade24Fx
Final push up for the EUR against the POUND?Since I am currently in a long trade for a final push up I will not be getting involved but we have a nice double bottom on the 4H and 1H, now at a Risk reward of 3.56 Good luck, if correct im expecting price to test the previous 4h highs and then start to see a reversal in the trend and become bearish. Daily shows bearish divergence and an asceding channel, quite a strong combination on the daily TF. Good luck guys. My final target for this is 0.90382
Long
by TradeEasy_Today
1