BTCe 4hr - Price rejection leads to potential bear resolutionsHello all,
I thought I would take some time to bring this community up to speed with my perception of BTCe's current price action and my expectations going forward. As regular readers of my blog and viewers of my videos will no doubt already know, I was on the verge of taking a long position in BTCe with a nice move through the $629.60 level. Of course, that move never came and I am basically still on the sideline. Interestingly though, that bias may have limited my 'profit exposure'. By not considering short setups I limited my participation. It always seems like the ones you let slip through your fingers are always the huge winners....doh!
Anyway, back to the story...recently, I posted on the site a study of last year's inverted head and shoulders and compared it to this year potential one. It suggested a test of BTC'e Daily OTE (long) zone shouldn't be too unexpected. Additionally, I was left with a feeling that the current BTC market feels very complacent and that a good shakeout felt a bit overdue. Couple that realization with my recent concerns about the daily price chart (see videos for more on that) and short ideas are starting to make more sense. So today, while looking at the chart I decided to lay a bearish ab=cd BoT setup study over the chart and see what kind of levels it produced. It was at that moment I realized I really had the wrong bias and short positions were already established and working towards their targets. What confirmed the idea for me was the fact that I repeatedly have mentioned recently that the triple top established just a few days ago would be 'the tell' for me and that it represented a brick wall of resistance. The next logical step (which I missed) was, why not short against it? As you can see, the BoT's Short entry level just so happens to be that exact trade....bingo! Considering reward to risk is 3:1 I would be more than happy to take this bet all day long, even if the odds are only 50/50. I am unfortunately not in this trade, should we rally back up to the original short entry level and produce a selling candle setup, I will consider it...
The levels are fairly well explained on the chart but if you would like to learn more about how I trade and the various models I run, please feel free to either contact me here at TradingView, follow me on Twitter @CRInvestor or drop by our Bitcoin themed website www.therationalinvestor.co
Thanks again all and I hope my levels, setups and areas of interest of are benefit,
Brian
Bot
BTCe - Bullish BoT's coming to life???Hello all,
as I pour over the charts this morning, I see lots of potential going forward. It has only been a few days since exiting our last setup and the market is starting to offer new ones for consideration. I think I mentioned we had a nice double bottom to work off of recently and as one can see from the 4hour chart, that has hit its 50% objective. It represented a little too little reward vs. the risk so I decided to let it go - figures...lol....actually, I am more than ok to let it go as I am pleased to see myself stick to my trading plan.
To that end, I now see a nice trading plan setup developing here on BTCe. The BoT, as outlined here: docs.google.com , is a nice model to play potential bullish or bearish ab=cd harmonic patterns. Off this chart, I would be more than happy to take the setup on a bullish resolution through 629.05. Risk reward levels are noted on the chart.
On a closing note, here is something more interesting - the 1 hour chart too has a bullish BoT setup working. Its validation will also come on a bullish resolution through its current consolidation: But you will have to subscribe to my fee site (very small monthly sum payable in BTC) for that analysis....here is the adr if you are interested: www.therationalinvestor.co
Cheers all,
Hope my simple analysis is of benefit
Brian
aka The Rational Investor
Crude Oil & The BoT - one way to play bull marketsHello all,
A trader's journey is one of self discovery. Learning to identify and then appropriately trade 'setups' is really about finding what you are comfortable with. It took me many years of self discover to find what works for me as I am sure it has for you. To that end, I found one model that I really like and it is my privilege to bring it to your attention. Take it for what it is worth, but it has aided me greatly in both executing a consistent trading plan and not getting anxious on trade location/execution. As I say in my tutorial, when I turn myself into a robot, I trade like a machine...
One reason why I like 'BoT' trade setup is because of its inter-market portability. Meaning, it is a model i can use to trade the stock market, Bitcoins, or in this case today, a commodity like Crude Oil. Here then is a bullish BoT setup in action. Notice the technical signals (MA cross, momentum upthrust) coincided with the 25% level - that is so cool to see when it happens! Anyway, the trade took little to no heat and moved very cleanly to the bullish ab=cd harmonic price objective. Once the objective was hit price quickly retreated.
Cheers all and hope it helps
You can find the slide show tutorial on Google docs here: docs.google.com
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BTC (Finex) at a bit of a crossroads (15m perspective)Hello all,
On the heels of some dramatic price action of late, it is both encouraging and interesting to see the broader Bitcoin community come alive again with activity. Interest in learning Technical analysis is palatable and it really makes what I do fun. While I have considered myself a 'student-of-the-market' for more than 20 years, I have only been following BTC since December, 2013 and the past six months have been a very interesting tutorial on how bear cycles (or 'corrections') play themselves out. Considering Bitcoin's current and historical volatility, I suppose the quiet market of April/May was more the exception then the norm. With that volatility should come the understanding that price has/can/will move 10% or more within a very short period of time. A trade that moves against you (without rigid risk management strategies) can and will hurt a lot. Indeed, this is when analysts need to consider all possibilities given the current environment, only take setups that are within their plan and for heavens sake, always put yourself in a position to be able to fight another day. (shameless plug.....for help with this please refer to my online courses and tutorial materials),,,
So, with all this in mind I thought I would weigh in on two perfectly legitimate scenarios I could see play out over the coming sessions.
Bearish: Considering higher time frame bias (bearish daily) a continuation down into the $500 area isn't out of the question. Knowing the market never moves in a straight line one can us The BoT to trade their way down into that zone. Currently a bearish ab=cd setup is working. Shorts from 562.45 with initial stops (still working, missed 'stop to break-even level 536.91 by $5...ugh) at $588.01 are acceptable. Target currently is $485.81 and represents a 3:1 r/r.
Bullish: Considering the severity of the move down, one shouldn't be surprised at the idea of a 'dead-cat-bounce' back into resistance. Considering too, the recent completion of a bearish BoT setup, one has to wonder if going to the well one too many times is asking for too much. The initial test of the 38.2 Fib (579.39) and now the potential reversal here off the OTE (long) sweet spot (70.5% Fib or 541.39) has setup a bottoming zone. If a bottom was to form this is, imho, where it is going to happen. A bullish resolution through the zone sets up a rally back into the OTE (short) zone which just so happens to be right on a trend line and the 200 sma.
Personal conclusion: Considering higher time frame bias and the fact that this counter trend rally expectation would represent nothing more than a move back into an area institutions would consider selling into, my inclination is one would need to see more bullish technical evidence to support buying at current levels. We have the smatterings of a bottom, but that is all it is to me at this point. Should price action consolidate for a bit here that bullish case may gain some traction.
As a professional market technician, I must respect where we are on the chart and what the market is trying to tell me. I must be flexible in stance, consider all possibilities and put my expectations going forward into perspective. My greatest hope is you can use these levels and notes to help in your trade process and expectation too.
Cheers all and hope it helps
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1hr Finex - The bearish BoT comes alive!Hello all,
after publishing my daily views on BTC (finex) someone asked me to look a the lower time frames and so I have spent some time looking at them in earnest. I haven't made too much reference to it of late (because I simply do not have the capital to consider day trading) but I see an old familiar friend jump out at me when I look these lower time frame charts. Here then today I give you The BoT in action. This model is very handy when considering day trade setups as it pre-defines all the levels one should trade and the trade itself has a built in 3:1 reward to risk setup. I would have no problem taking this short at current levels and risking to just above point C (or just above 620.97). Anticipated target on the trade is 522.86. In essence we are playing the continuation of the prevailing trend where our risk is about $25 and our reward is about $75..
Cheers all and hope it helps
If my charts help you, or you use my indicators...
please consider a BTC donation to allow me to
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p.s. if you would like to learn more about The BoT, feel free to check out my Google docs slide show presentation it: docs.google.com
4hr BTC Nice bounce off the bottomI haven't posted much on Bitcoin as much of late as I have been put to sleep waiting for my OTE long zone bids to be filled. It has been an arduous wait but as price has moved slowly lower, the wisdom of patients has been so far accurate. Having said that, Bitcoin has enjoyed a rather nice bounce off the 419.40 level for going on the past 100 hours. So much so we are fast approaching a few significant resistance levels off the higher time frames and some aggressive short term bullish price targets. The bulls are expecting the current ab=cd harmonic pattern to play out (point D currently is 467.55) . That level is interesting because it does line up with a 38.2 Fib from the top so it seems very realistic. On the way to that level the market will have to overcome the 4hr - 200 sma (458) and a previous peak (463.53) so I certainly could see some volatility from current levels. BoT longs are working from the 445 area (25% of anticipated price objective) and stops are now at break even (BoT's trading rules since 50% of anticipated target move has occurred) but sadly I am still working my 'stink bids' down below. Considering momentum's 'toppy' look to it, I would be more then happy to exit (that long signal from 445) at break even should the market fail from current levels. My hunch is we will run into resistance and we will roll over and test these recent lows. From exactly where is of course tough to say but my hunch again is that the 38.2 level (off the top) is just too much of a magnet not to get hit. once we roll over,. do we break those lows is another question all together. Do I get my fills below $400, even more questionable considering where we are on the Weeklies.....shucks..... Since this is a V'' bottom, I am going to let them work and see if we can't get a real push into the OTE long zone to finish off this 4hr correction.
Cheers all and I hope my simple analysis is of benefit...
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BoT long Crude Oil: High probability setup = good mental capitalAfter taking some time to lick my self inflicted day-trading wounds I have slowly brought my trading plan in fous and have resolved to get back on track. With recent loses in mind, I took a step back, re-wrote my trading plan and committed myself to the plan. I woke today with the thoughts of playing a rally out of the Euro close into weekly options expiry - I soon realized the market had other ideas. When I looked at my charts this AM II saw both a 1 hour and 15 minute double bottom working (trading plan setup checklist item 1 & 2.).. The market rallied and then pulled back 33% of that rally testing the breakout highs (trading plan setup checklist item 3. & 4.) The market then put in a tight fractal off the 25% level and I took the trade (trading plan setup checklist item 5.). I moved my stop to break even and then to trailing as the market gave me the prompts (trading plan setup checklist item 6. & 7.). I was stopped out when the market pulled back a bit and took a nice little 12 tick profit on the setup. At that point I removed all open orders and patted myself on the back for both committing to my plan and then executing the plan (WTG Brian!). While I did ultimately see the market hit the AB=CD target today was more about me getting back on track and booking profits. I doubt I will take another setup today as I believe it is good for your mental capital to book a nice winning day. I understand that my profits on the trade were just slightly above my initial risk but hey a profit is a profit is a profit - and I believe I needed the mental capital boost to carry me into the Month of May.
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Rough day in Crude oil - not every day can be peaches & creamToday was not a good day for me day trading Crude Oil. I find it very helpful when i write up these publications as it helps me see where I made my mistakes and hopefully I correct poor behavior. So indulge me here as I walk you through how I ended up losing $330 on the day (sim). .Because of the holiday atmosphere (and roll issues relating to May contract expiry) I did not trade my combine today but rather just put trades on in my practice account. Regardless of sim vs. live, I consider every trade I do 'live' so when I fail in my practice account I consider it a fail.
Now on to the trades. I woke late (not a good sign in itself) and saw I missed the first BoT long setup off the double bottom registered through the Globex session. In classic FOMO fashion I took the first BoT setup that came on a greater than 33% correction in price. I, of course, assumed the bull market would go on endlessly. The setup was poor (at best) and I later realized it was on a bear momentum divergence (holy rookie mistake batman!).That long represented way too much risk (23 ticks) and I simply could never consider taking that amount of risk on a 'live' trade why I thought it was ok to do in the practice account eludes me. In hindsight one can see why we shouldn't take that amount of risk on any one trade. Anyway, that stop was hit and now I was 23 ticks in the hole.
I must admit, I hastily stalked another setup to get revenge (another bad sign) and took the first BoT short that came along shortly thereafter. Again, looking back in hindsight, momentum itself was on the upswing when I put the short on and later did 'top' out - well after I was stopped out.
So now 0/2 and down 32 ticks on the day. Even though it is just a practice account, I resigned myself to the fact that I just wasn't seeing the market correctly today and shut down operations. Sadder too, I see now a respectable BoT long setup working that I just simply could not consider taking.
Hopefully while you read this you see similar trading mistakes made on your own part and can learn from a 'veteran' that we all make them. No matter how long you have done this, nor how 'rich' you are, a trader is always prone to making mistakes. How we learn/grow from those mistakes is what separates the pro's from the amateurs.
Cheers,
Brian
aka CRInvestor
BTCE BoT short off failed rallyHere is a great example of The BoT in action in a shorting situation. BTCE had just rallied back into an OTE short zone on the higher time frame charts (and was quickly rejected) so a pullback was to be expected. The BoT came alive when prices moved from 440 down into the 407 area and then rebounded back to 430 area. Looking for an ab=cd price pattern continuation here (and an ultimate target just under $400) The BoT suggested the 420 area itself would represent a level where (according to the model) the potential reward to risk setup would be 3:1. Notice how price itself put in a nice double top right at that level and then slowly gave everyone multiple opportunities to get in. Once the trade got going in earnest both the stop to break even and stop to trail levels where hit in short order. Since the ultimate target (397.04) has yet to be hit, and there has yet to be a serious bottom registered in either volume or momentum, i recon stops just above recent rally peaks (and the 13ema) are warranted on the 421 shorts. Of course, with Willy rather stupid at the moment, shorts and or sales simply are not realistic.
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Crude Oil weekly BoT long setupIf you believe the weekly trend has turned higher on Crude then one way to play the higher time frame trade is with The BoT. Here we ought to be long currently from 100.83 with stops still at 97.34. Should we hit 104.33 we can then move our stop to just under our original entry. Lets see if the current bull rally can hit that level. Regardless, that bullish ab=cd target is 111.31 so I for one shall be looking for higher CL prices going into our seasonal peak, not lower.
Crude Oil day trade setupHere is a really nice example of the BoT in action. Price had been basing through the overnight session as a wide double bottom was confirmed through the pre-pit open. That bottom setup long ideas and sure enough the BoT came alive when prices corrected to 103.26. I watched price action closely and was very fortunate to act when given the opportunity (wtg Brian). On news out of Russia, price surged higher and both the 'stop to break even' level and the 'stop to trail' levels where hit. Considering my poor performance yesterday, I wanted to book a nice positive day and so moved my stop up aggressively and was filled shortly thereafter. Interestingly, had I left my stop at break even through the following 10 minute pull back and then moved my stop to that pullback low (which is in my plan....tisk tisk Brian) I would have ultimately been filled at the ab=cd target. Still more to work on but am happy with booking a nice profitable trade on the day.
If my charts help you, or you use my indicators...
please consider a BTC donation to allow me to
continue my work :
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& follow me on Twitter @CRInvestor
