BTC Bubbles Bottom Below the 20 Months Moving AverageBitcoin monthly chart.
Every time BTC went in bubble territory (see RSI) it topped and it didn't find a bottom until it breached the 20 months moving average and reached a level approximately 50% below it.
I'm excluding March 2020 flash crash (the DSS also suggests that was a special occurrence)
Bottom
BTC will bottom at 12k, accumulation 12k and 19k, 2025 135kIf we break 20k and flip it to resistance then we will indeed go to 12k levels, where there is big support.
This is possible from fundamental analysis
1. more rate hikes for about three quarters
2. stock market has not bottomed out, there is support coming in, though
3. borrow protocols like celsius and 3ac who needs to be liquidated
4. 4 year cycle respected
Adam and Eve inverted pattern is also very strong, don't underestimate it
Finding the bottom SPX - look back at the March 2020 bottomLooking back at the most recent, major decline in the market and it's bottom, we can see that there are a couple of major indicators that may give us a clue as to when a bottom may be near.
Without complicating things, i submit to you two things that must happen:
1. the VIX must get near or above ~50
2. there must be a bottoming out and a rise in the RSI
That's it :)
100% Bounce Rate since 2013Fun indicator - Distance from the Moving Average (100 Daily)
Price finds a way to get far overextended from moving averages before needing to dial back the momentum.
Right now, the price has deviated far away from the 100 daily Moving Average.
Every single time the distance from the MA reached this level, there was at least a 50% move upwards from that bottom.
So, a 50% price increase makes my take profit area 30k.
May the odds ever be in your favor.
Bitcoin 4 Year SMA. Best tool we have to call the bottom for BTCNotice the price action near the green & red lines. Look below the green line (23.61% Fibonacci), there are 2 grey lines and then the orange & the same thing when looking above the red line (76.39% Fibonacci).
History shows us that we rarely go above or below the red/green line, and if we look to the right, it looks like it's trying to break below. When price action bounces off one of these logarithmic fib levels.
That should be a very good sign that things are turning around. But you also gotta remember that anything is possible. With $BTC at the KEY LEVEL, fighting to stay above the green 23.61% Fib...
The FOM C meeting could send us the right to the bottom of the channel. Coming down to that orange bottom fib would be around $18,000 - $20,000 depending on how long it takes to get down to that level.
We also have the 4-year SMA (1460 Day SMA) being hit again for the 4th time since 2015 & each time we came down to the MA the bottom was in and we flipped bullish.
One last thing... My 4 Year, 200 Week, 1460 Day M.A (whatever M.A you like better) is a heatmap, and if we take a look we can see that we have now stopped printing the teal/light blue & we now are starting to see
some dark blue beginning to appear. This is just another signal to add more confluence towards the idea that we might have bottomed out & we could see a reversal in the not-so-distant future!
Why the market bottom is probably very close - USDT.D Observe the 10D (!) chart above.
1) Price is above the upper bollinger band. Candles don't often print outside bollinger bands and, if they do, the price quickly corrects inside the bands. In this case, the index should drop.
2) RSI. Look at the levels and what happened each time it hit them. Remember, this is a 10D chart (high timeframe) which means indicators print more powerful signals.
However, keep in mind: A move outside the bands calls for a continuation of the trend, not an end to it. Often, the first push of a major move will carry prices outside the bands. (such is the case with the last move)
On the other hand, a sharp move outside the bands followed by an immediate retracement of that move is a sign of exhaustion. Now, the long wicks above the last few candles printed signify that immediate retracement, in a way showing trend exhaustion.
All things considered, I find it highly unlikely USDT dominance keeps rising. Inflation is still very high (no matter those clowns at the White House or the EU parliament saying they have it under control with a 50bp raise, like that is going to undo years of money printing) and crypto is growing (not necessarily good because the market gets more emotional and irrational when the average guy/girl plays a big part, but my point is that liquidity has and will keep rising). Probability wise (looking left at the chart), it is about time USDT.D drops and crypto starts rallying again.
BTC - MA100 Breakdown and BottomIn this analysis I wanted to underline the importance of the weekly MA100 and how it can play an important role in finding the bottom. As you can see, Bitcoin broke down the MA100 3 times and in all cases it dropped from 45% to 54%. Again Bitcoin broke down the MA100 making a 42% drop. After a period of time (50 days to 350 days) bitcoin has returned above the MA100. Every time this event has occurred Btc has hit its bottom.
Now my questions are 2:
1) Will it continue to drop to 18-20k and score a 48% drop?
2) will it stay in a range in this area for a long time and then rise again in 2023?
This is just my idea, I'd love to know what you think in the comments.
sand | eliottwave targets |A possible bottom for sand is projected in this chart , curently sand is still in wave 4 with the target at 1.63$ , i'm thinking when bitcoin have that wave 2 pump will bring sand to his target , and when btc goes down to the 23k will bring sand at 0.70c for a possoble bottom ! cheers and have a nice day :)
Tech Stocks This chart highly suggests that capitulation and peak fear is finally here.
This is the chart of SQQQ, which is the inverse derivative of QQQ, which in turn tracks the Nasdaq 100. There's virtually no way that SQQQ's price can sustain a gap up like this on a weekly time frame. The gap is extremely likely to close and the price will move back below the Ichimoku Cloud resistance by the end of the week. Those who are just now selling tech and growth stocks because of inflation are capitulating. Inflation and rate hikes have been evident in the charts for over a year, and it, therefore, makes no sense to just now be selling tech.
See my post here for why I believe this is the bottom for tech:
With this said, if SQQQ does indeed close the week above the Ichimoku Cloud resistance and EMA exp ribbon then we're looking at a market crash. Statistically, this is highly unlikely to be the case though. The NDTH is far too low for QQQ to break down and crash just now. We are in peak fear/peak inflation/peak capitulation this week. In fact, this is a super good risk-to-reward entry. One can enter TQQQ/QQQ/tech this week and stop out on Friday if support breaks at the weekly close. If support holds, you would have bought in at the absolute bottom.
If the Fed hikes rates by 75 bps on Wednesday, it's quite likely that the markets will quickly rally from this low.
Not financial advice. Anything can happen. Trends can break.
BTC: EXCLUSIVE LONG TERM UPDATE! WHEN BULL MARKET STARTS?Hello everyone, if you like the idea, do not forget to support with a like and follow.
Welcome to this BTC update. In this BTC update, I'll try to clear all your doubts. This chart is purely based on fractals and previous data.
So let's start.
First Bull Cycle:- First bull cycle of BTC starts before the first BTC halving which is in 2012. After the first halving, BTC made a top of $1k in Nov. 2013 and after that, a 1 year correction period starts.
Second Bull Cycle:- Second bull cycle of BTC starts before the second halving which is in 2016. After the second halving, BTC made a top of almost $14,500 in Dec. 2018 and after that, the same 1 year correction period starts.
Third Bull Cycle:- Third bull cycle of BTC starts before the third halving which is in 2020. After the third halving, BTC made a top of almost $69k in Nov. 2021 and after the month of Nov. 2021, we saw a continuous drop in the price of BTC.
Fourth Bull Cycle:- So according to the history, this correction period till last Nov. 2022 and after that, we will see a bullish rally in the market where the top is around $2,50,000.
According to the above analysis, our first doubt (when bull market) will clear. Now the second important question is what can be the bottom of this correction?
As you see in the chart a yellow MA which is a monthly 50MA act at the bottom of every cycle. So according to this theory, the bottom of this cycle is around $21,300 but that does not mean we did not go below that we might see a wick below the 50MA and that is the best buying opportunity.
Conclusion:-
BTC bottom is around $18k-$22k
The bull market starts after Nov. 2022
Hope after reading this whole update all your doubts will clear. If still have any then you can ask in the comment section or you can also share your views in the comment section.
If you like this idea then do support it with like and follow.
Thank You!
VETUSDT wants the Monthly support againThe price is creating a bear flag on 4 timeframes after the first pullback as I told you.
What's the next?
The price needs to hold the 4h support on 0.3$ after rejection on 0.5 Fibonacci level.
How to approach it?
IF the price is going to have a breakdown from the support and retest as new resistance, According to Plancton's strategy , we can set a nice order
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Keep in mind.
🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure.
🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure.
🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure.
🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure.
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Follow the Shrimp 🦐
$BTC RSI is beautiful right now, let's see if the same happen?$BTC RSI is beautiful right now, let's see if the same happen?
You can see at the last cycle, it broke the RSI downtrend and slowly played around for a few weeks, then back up.
To me, because this current drop is so slow, because we are so oversold, and because other major indicators are showing a sign of reversal within the next month or so, we are close to the bottom.
Of course, anything can happen, but I think that $20,000 BTC will be held and protected.
ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN
DCA your position.
2009 till 2022, bullish channel, where we bottom by DIAAlright, so we can clearly see a bullish channel since 2009. During a bear market or stock sell offs, we deviated temporarily from the trend line ;there is no support there at the moment, or maybe we go more sideways. This could mean bottom is if we break 3700, 3311 swift capitulation, then bounce to 3600.
ETH first indications of last wave (bottom soon)Hi everyone,
We are hitting a series of 4's making me believe that we are nearing a bottom provided that we make a 'soft landing' in a sort of diagonal style instead of accelereting once more.
If this is the case and if we are in a last wave down to complete our structure we need 5 smaller waves down.
The minimum target is 1370 USD per Ethereum ranging untill 1264 USD. I believe this corrective structure will complete around 1350 USD. This is where I close my final shorts just to be safe.
For people who have not entered a short at 1526 USD targeting 1375 USD is a nice trade setup with a stop loss above the previous blue iv at around 1544 USD. Keep the larger corrective structure in mind if you are entering this trade.
Stay stafe and trade carefully since the 5th wave can allways accelerate and we can still get an extension afterwards.
As Always this is no financial advice.