One more down day and then...Strong chance Intermediate wave 4 ends tomorrow if Minor waves A and B are already completed. There is an off chance the marked wave A and B in yellow letters are only Minute waves 1 and 2 inside of wave A, however, the historical data was pretty adamant on Intermediate wave 4 only lasting around 2-4 days which makes the current chart setup very likely. Another key level comes into play that I original wrote off when the models first projected the bottom of Intermediate wave 4. The strongest models indicated the total Intermediate wave 4 retracement would only be 15.06% of Intermediate wave 3’s entire move. That level equates to 4261.48. The index is pretty much there already. However, I believe we have just completed Minute wave 2 to the upside inside of the final Minor wave C. Confirmation of this position will likely occur with a significant drop within the first 2 hours of trading tomorrow and could see a gap down on the premarket economic data.
Based on the historical data, all models and datasets point to Minor wave C lasting 0-2, and most likely only one day. Day 1 is officially tomorrow and will contain the likely market bottom that won’t be breached for 1-2 months. Based on waves ending in C4C, the likely bottom for Minor wave C will be at the 114.61% retracement of Minor wave A’s movement, or 120.8%, or 137.50%. Based on waves ending in 4C, the median retracement levels will be 113.25%, 126.76% or 174.83%. Through the middle of all these levels lies a horizontal trendline which has provided strong resistance during the course of Primary wave C, however, it was broken through on June 2 and could provide support for tomorrow’s likely bottom. The final bottom does not appear to be below 4236.01 and may only be as low as 4254. If we gap down at the open it would likely gap below 4254 which could place bottom around 4240. I do not foresee the original projections down around 4210 in play. Once again, the open holds the key to the day.
I plan to analyze again after tomorrow and project the final market top for 2023-2026 by this weekend.
