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VIX Multi-ToolHi and happy Monday to everyone :) This educational post is about VIX and I will present one way how to use it for trying to catch bottoms. Let's start with little introduction: What is VIX? The VIX is an index run by the Chicago Board Options Exchange ( CBOE ), that measures the stock market’s expectation for volatility over the next 30 days based on option prices for the S&P 500 . Volatility is a statistical measure based on how much an asset’s price moves in either direction and is often used to measure the riskiness of an asset. VIX is often called 'fear index' because investors use the VIX to measure the level of risk, fear, or stress in the market when making investment decisions. The higher the VIX goes, the more volatile price movements are expected. Most traders know about VIX and there are many ways how to use it. But in addition to so called regular VIX (30 days), CBOE also calculates VIX for different time-periods: 9-day, 3-month and 6-month. These are all plotted below S&P 500 index on chart above. I got this idea several years ago from well known trader and author Alexander Elder. Logic behind plotting these 4 different VIX indicators is pretty simple. Usually, the longer the timeframe, the higher the VIX . This is like buying insurance - more things can happen in longer timeframe so 6-month insurance is more expensive than 9-day insurance . Same goes with VIX . During panic sometimes shortest (9-day) VIX shoots above longer timeframe indicators (1-month, 3-month and 6-month). Then things will become interesting. If this happens then it is not sustainable (for long periods) and market bottom could be near. At chart above I have highlighted all recent occasions when shortest VIX (9-day) is above all the rest. I have excluded signals that have happened below 20 because usually VIX below 20 is normal level. But as always, it can vary and depends from market context. This indicator has had tendency to catch at least short-term market bottoms and there are many ways how to use it. Here are some examples: 1) Buy when shortest timeframe VIX (9-days) rises above others and then returns down again. 2) Add Keltner Channels or Bollinger Bands around them - signals could be lines breaking out of channels and then re-entering for example. 3) Combine VIX signal with some price action setups. Or something else - trading is a little bit like art where you can be creative! Please keep in mind that I have not back-tested this idea. In my own trading I use it as one tool of measuring market environment and it helps me to adjust my day-trading style during volatile times. Intraday I pay attention to these lines even below 20 i.e. I will be alert when shortest (9d day) line rises above VIX (30 day). Feel free to play around with this idea if you find it interesting and suitable for you. As always, DYOR (Do Your Own Research) before deciding to use it with real money. I've added several additional charts with examples to this post. Thank you and enjoy your trading :)
SP:SPXLong
by Laurentsius
122
Evergrand potential tremendous upside should they get bailed outThe Blue line is the actual chart 1week above and 1hr below. The green line is smaller cyclical chart taken from Feb 2015 to July of 2015 1hr chart below and extrapolated over the Larger current chart above. There are key markers in the chart that are clearly identifiable as a repeating and controlled stock. This stock should bounce after this bankruptcy deal as it will get bailed out or bought by someone else. Could easily see massive gains should this rebound like the past.
HKEX:3333Long
by parkair1501
💡How To Use Market Leaders to Spot a Potential Bottom❗️Lets take a break from stuffing our bags with money and look quick at an example of spotting the market bottom using what's called a market leader, a very simple technique that can be very effective for both shorter and longer term trades. In general the market right now is very alt focused, we can tell that by looking at how low bitcoin dominance is, and how the alt cap is climbing both with btc and with the general market cap. When we're dealing with an alt focused market there's generally going to be a hot ticket item, little while back it was ETH, now it's DOGE again as it's the media darling and Elon is on SNL soon to decide the fate of every leveraged DOGE trader in one monologue. We call this asset the "Market Leader", because it leads the market. Complex, I know. We can identify these assets by their movements during catalyzing BTC movements, generally corrections down are the easiest to see - which is what we have an example of here. Also fundamental analysis of the news can give us a good idea of what may or may not be a market leader. When we see a correction down, and all of a sudden a coin starts moving contrary to the correction at a level that could very well be the bounce point on our BTC and index charts; we know it's either a Pump and Dump if it's a shitcoin or that coin is probably the market leader for either the short term or potentially longer term. In this case we see our lord DOGE, which now has a stupidly high market cap because people are inherently greedy apes, basically hit it's higher low and start rebounding almost exactly 1-hour before BTC started reacting. The rest of the market of course followed and now we see there's a massive bounce and everyone's getting paid copious amount of money today. Fantastic. OBVIOUSLY this is extremely potent information to have, as knowing when the market has reached it's general bottom means we can either close shorts, open longs, or both if you're one of the energetic variety. So keep an eye out for this behavior on the markets in general - it's not always there but when it is, like ETH last week, it can lead you straight to the bank$$$
Education
by cryptosince1963
1
US Equity Market could bottom out soonTLT From a post view to analyze the market these days, "everybody" knows from the media that the reason is "fear of hyperinflation" But how much inflation is high enough and when does this correction ends? jump into my conclusion : the correction is ending soon. Why? there are 5 reasons to look for : 1 correction was triggered by diving T-note, looking at TLT, since the broke out from a 2B at early Feb, it accelerated, but approaching pre-pandenmic level. 2 raw material price on the massive run since last year, Copper and Crude oil had their times, but is approaching previous resistance 3 looking at nasdaq, 2Hr and 4Hr had made new lows but with MACD divergence 4 catalyst could be the freezing weather that send crude to the sky and the priced in stim bill, with dead line approaching, there still a big uncertainty in this, so could triggers some risk aversion 5 Nasdaq is approaching 12/18 quad witching support
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by JasontryHarder
2
Have we seen the bottom?There was a substantial upward trend between 1942 and 1981 in the 10 years Us treasury notes. After that, a declining has been ongoing for 39 years. This cycle is getting to its end, and I can imagine that we had already seen the bottom of it in 2020, I think this despite the fact that the falling trend has not yet broken. Ok I know, now I am visioning a change of regime or a change of paradigm, but today's circumstance could create such a change. So I don't know if there will be moderate inflation or hyperinflation or something like that, but the 10year Us treasury notes should break out of this falling channel and after that, even the rising could accelerate. What should traders do if they would like to protect themself from inflation? For me short the bond market! Now I start to see the market very closely and searching for a good us bond market short ETF and getting involved in this market step by step. I don't know whether I am right, maybe just 2 or 3 years will come to this change(especially because the FED announced that they won't change this rate policy until 2023). But be aware that because if the time will come and you are not prepared then your money will be burned. I have just thought that I will share my vision of the next extremely adventurous years, and I am very curious about your vision and your solution Thank you for your attention!
TLong
by MoodandMarkets
$541.39 was expensive! A temporary bottom at $499.54!$541.39 was expensive! A temporary bottom at $499.54 on January 6, 2021. Trade Idea: Short-Term Price Target of $528. A possible retest of $508.05. A retest means that the stock must hold that level or we are looking at the next price at $468.29. This is a follow up writing in regards to my article on January 2, 2020, "A new high above $541.39 is possible for Netflix Inc NFLX." The link to that article is: $499.54 is close enough to my initial prediction. "For long traders waiting for an opportunity to enter this stock, it is expensive to enter at the current market price of $541.39. Instead, a better entry price is around $468.29 if NFLX Netflix truly bottoms around that price." Thank you for reading! Greenfield Remember to click "Like" and "Follow!" Disclosure: Charts and articles interpreted by Greenfield. A market idea by Greenfield Analysis LLC for educational purposes only. This is not a solicitation and not a recommendation. Greenfield Analysis LLC has no investment in any of the securities mentioned in the article, and no plan to initiate a trade in any of the securities mentioned. Greenfield does not receive any compensation for this writing. Investment involves substantial risk. You should consider carefully and do your own research before making an investment and investment is at your own risk.
NASDAQ:NFLXLong
by GreenfieldAnalysis