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BTC - Crystal ball reading for bottom 2019Hi, i've found the original "pattern idea" on youtube. But it was just a pitchfork and fibo-circles. Thought this was interessting, so i handled with it a couple days and edited some resistence/support lines from "back in the days". Now there is a much clearer picture of "where to look for" and "why". --> im not a trader, im not a financial advisor... just a random guy --> please let me know if i forgot some important touches/lines and why you think so Check the detailed pictures below <3
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by FranzHRO
10
Bitcoin Botom Price GuessFirst lets look at Price Scenario 1-Mirrors 2014-2015 crash where bitcoin went somewhat mainstream (but still not too well known contrary to 2017 )to some degree. -Price did 1168$ to 153$, a decrease of 87% -Using the bit stamp bitcoin price high of 19665, a decrease of 87% will be $2555 Scenario 2-Mirros the worst bubble of all time, 2011, where we did a -93.7% decrease -Price did 31.83$ to 2.03$, a decrease of nearly -93.5% -Thus, a -93.5% decrease from 19665 would be 1238$ Scenario 3-Retraces to last bubble high. This has happened in 2013 where ( if we ignore the wick,we made a high of 163$, and this was very close to the bottom of the last crash at 153$. If the wick is included then this analysis is not really useful The wick went to 276$, much higher then the bottom of 153$ The 2014 crash though had a much smaller wick -The wick went to about 1168$. The bodies of the candle were at 966$ (using the weekly time frame ) -So thus a bottom at 966-1168$ is possible Scenario 3- Mega Bear Crash mirroring the performance of some of the dotcom stucks (-95 to -99% ) -We could reach a bigger correction then the previous bubbles mentioned since unlike other times, bitcoin was truly mainstream in 2017.It was the talk of everywhere when it surged past 10K and almost hit 20k. Even celebrities were talking about , and some celebrities participated in advertising shitty icos which are now worthless after hitting the exchanges. - The thing is, the world decided that blockchain technology/crypto was not worthy of being an asset to hold, so we started to crash. And the 2015-2017 bull run while there were substantial advances in the crypto technology, real life applications are still slim. - Bitcoins price when it isnt really mainstream and used primarly for shady transactions and as a hedge against the global economy failing is 130-150$ ish. Not likely to go that low but it could happen given the unique circumstances of this bubble -Market makers also might have a incentive to drive bitcoin below 1K as it would be breaking a pyschological barrier and cause more panic selling. This is because below 1k, the next support area is 500-600$ area, so it would happen rapidly TL:DR Potential bottoms are all the way from 150$-2500$. I dont think the bottom has been hit yet btw.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by chartingman43
Historical Average Bear Market Studies.. Applied To Bitcoin.Quite a few things going on within this chart, but what I'm trying to convey is actually very simple. The chart is based off a few key models which have been used with tremendous accuracy for over a century. Model 1) Bear markets will usually last about 18 months in duration. Model 2) Bear markets will usually last about 1/3 as long as the previous bull. Model 3) Average Model 1 and Model 2. Blue Vertical Line: 18 Month Marker .. Based on the historical average duration of bear markets. Red Vertical Line: Bull Run Divided By 3 .. Based on the notion that a bear market will typically last about 1/3 as long as the previous bull market. Historically this is very accurate. Yellow Vertical Line: Average of Both Bear Market Studies .. Averaging both studies gives us a mean and a "prime" timing window to hunt investment grade opportunities. Purple Vertical Rectangle: The Window To Focus In On ... If you're long term bullish on this asset. Key points here: 1) We've already retraced well beyond 78.6% of the entire range from bottom to top (from $109 to $19,800) - What I would consider Investment Grade location. 2) If history tends to repeat itself or rhyme... we're in the sweet spot in terms of TIMING a purchase, being right in between both of our historically accurate bear market studies. 3) Comparing this pice action to the 2015 bear market, we're actually in about the exact same location as we were in 2015 when the market bottomed. Right in between 78.6 retracement and 88.6% retracement . Anecdotal evidence we may be bottoming now. 4) "Buy When It Snows, Sell When It Goes" - Old adage in the stock market which has merit. Should you base your investment decisions based entirely off a saying on wall street? Absolutely not. But here we are coming out of the winter and in to crypto's favorite time of the year. Seasonality wise, we consistently see the market lift in the spring and in to the summer. 5) Internally - **NOT shown on this chart for the sake of keeping it clean and readable. *Volume breakout shown on OBV. *Looong double momentum divergence confirmed, shown in the MACD. *Embedded momentum oscilator trying to break out of oversold. I use a modified W%R, but something more common like RSI or stochastics would give you the same reading. *Overall the Weekly internals look massively bullish. Just keep in mind this is a WEEKLY chart. Each candle takes a week to print. So this DOES NOT MEAN that you can expect upward movement from this point forward. In many cases after the Weekly charts start showing buy signals, it can easily take a month before any significant price movement occurs. So be weary of the timeframe I'm referring to. 6) Final confirmation for me is a weekly close above $4040.99. At this point I'm not "betting the farm," but I will be exchanging a considerable amount of USD holdings back in to Bitcoin.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by bitflip01
Liquidity Pool / Stop Loss Explanation POE SignalA group member had a question about why the stop loss was "so low" being 23% under the buy price. The reasoning is you need to avoid the liquidity zone, where price could easily be pushed. The purpose of our stop is to exit the trade if its no longer valid (not get stopped out only to see a pump happen afterwards). This could be another accumulation cycle, so we want to ride out the potential for a dip. As normal traders we normally dont have to deal with extremely large positions. But the whales/institutions who do have to think about liquidity very differently than you or I. Order flow intersections are what they look for. They have to go TO the liquidity - which is many times where people end up placing their stops. They cannot simply accumulate or distribute a large position whenever and wherever they wish. Rather, they must look to those levels where liquidity is aggregating, and stops are helping them in an indirect way. Without a Support/Resistance Finder (SRF) to help you, you can also/alternately use a volume profile as shown. SRF auto plots the S/R lines for the current range (all the horizontal dashed red and green lines are done by SRF). You want to place your stop BELOW where the liquidity is likely located - and also where your trade idea is invalidated. In the opposite sense there is a liquidity zone above as well. Many times you will see price probe the same levels over a few days. This is testing the resistance and seller appetite. You can see this here in the 210+ area as price has been probing the upper resistance.
PEducation
by theheirophant
1
BullFilter showing bullish divergence & long opportunity on QTUMAnalysis: Correction ended, and accumulation nearing final phase. Spikes in volume combined with bullish divergence are showing the fingerprints of a pre pump situation. Breakout from this channel expected near term. Entry Point: General Entry is this range is fine, just look for a local dip/low. Looking to go long in the range of 530 to 550. See detailed screenshot below, using Bottomfinder to find best local entry. Take Profit: The dashed red lines represent target take profit levels. We suggest cashing out 10% at T1, 35% T2, 50% T3, 5% T4 (or let it ride if it still looks bullish). Stop Loss: Stop Loss suggested at 480, which is below the liquidity pool likely located in the 500-525 range. Upon completion of T1 move stop loss to entry point to secure a risk free trade. Additionally continue moving stop loss up by one target each time a new target it reached. i.e. when T2 is reached, move stoploss to T1 level. This way you can ride out dips with no anxiety and automatically exit the trade in profit should you not be around to monitor!
Long
by theheirophant
BottomFinder Signals & Profit Analysis XBTUSD last 60 days.BottomFinder just gave a strong bottom signal so I thought a great time to post this, since bitcoin is dumping. Many times this is psychologically the toughest trade to make. Bottomfinder can help you manage that fear at the bottom and conversely the greed at the top! Here is a profit summary for following BottomFinder signals on XBTUSD 1 Hour timeframe for the last 60 days. 21 Trades and 3 losers. The general strategy here is to enter upon the two type of bottom signals and exit upon any sell signal (weak, medium or strong). As you can see I have highlighted the areas where false signals occurred, so you can see where they will sometimes crop up. We have implemented strict filtering, but to eliminate those false signals entirely negatively affects the overall profitability for the algorithm. Accuracy is overall around +/-85% depending on timeframe and coin/stock you are charting. If you notice, I only calculate profit from the OPEN/CLOSE value. I am not including wick position in the profit calculation. So very likely in some instances you would have entered/exited the position in a better spot. See examples below I prefer to be conservative when giving profit analysis though. Always better to over deliver in that department! :) BottomFinder's long awaited update will be released in the coming weeks. Stay tuned for more updates about new features and how to use them!
BITMEX:BTCUSD.P
by theheirophant
1
Do Not Argue With Sellers – Celebrate With Buyers: GE EditionGeneral Electric (GE) dropped 4.0% for a fourth straight day of high volume selling. At $11.27/share GE sits at a stomach-churning 9-year low. GE’s early June expulsion from the Dow Jones Industrial Index seemed like such natural ignition for a bottom that even CNBC’s Jim Cramer got off the fence to declare the stock a buy. At the time I proposed a lower risk method of playing a potential bottom using call options. The call option configuration certainly helped ease the pain of the recent 9-year lows. Still, with selling accelerating, the temptation to consider the conditions for a bottom is too great to resist. Sure enough, Guy Adami on Fast Money offered his keys for determining whether GE (or any stock) has indeed finally reached bottom: A new 52-week low on heavy volume: this action can indicate a wash-out of sellers. Management is up-front and addressing the problems with the business: hope remains the company figure things out. The company remains in a viable industry: the business and economic environment still gives the company time to turn things around. I like Adami’s points. However, the title “how to catch a falling knife” is telling. Traders and investors should not actually reach out to catch a falling knife. Instead, they should step in when the risk of catching a knife is sufficiently low to make the risk worthwhile. In other words, I prefer to wait for “confirmation” that the falling knife has finished falling; I want the ground to catch the knife, not me. Two years ago, I described this confirmation process in a piece titled “Do Not Argue With Sellers – Celebrate With Buyers.” When sellers have firm control of a stock, I want to wait for a some sign of buying like a trading day with a gain. A stronger confirmation occurs after buyers manage to establish control of the trading with a complete reversal of the most concentrated part of the sell-off. My only rare exception to the confirmation rule occurs when I have a strong conviction from some data or analysis that puts me in accumulation mode. In the case of GE above, a close above $11.80 would be the first potential sign of a washout and exhaustion of sellers. A close above $12.71 would signal high odds of a complete washout. Since I already have a position in play, I am content to wait for this more definitive confirmation. Shorter-term traders should stop out of their long positions if GE manages to close below the latest low of $11.27. If GE closes at fresh lows, then the first signal of seller’s exhaustion adjusts downward to whatever closing price clears the intraday high of the last day of high-volume selling. GE will continue to capture the imagination given its iconic status as a symbol of America’s industrial past. Now we wonder whether the future is waiting for GE as it sinks in stark contrast to the strength of the American economy and the near relentless up-trend of the S&P 500 (SPY). Be careful out there! Full disclosure: long GE call options
NYSE:GE
by drduru
8
1 hour Timeframe XBTUSD signals from BottomFinder for comparisonA few days back we published an idea showing XBTUSD trades on the 15m timeframe. We had requests for a higher timeframe example to contrast the differences on higher vs lower timeframes. For those who are not sitting at a chart all day and prefer less frequent trades, the answer is simple. Just set Bottom Top Finder to the 1 hour timeframe for slightly longer term positions. With only one false signal halfway through the major dump, 15/16 win rate isn't bad! As with any signal or trade, you must also have a sound risk management strategy. Next week Bottom Top Finder 2.7 will be released with new features and more user customization! Like, follow and direct message for a trial!
BITMEX:BTCUSD.P
by theheirophant
1