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Bottoming

BTC Scenarios for January '19Today's BTC drop move is very welcomed from a technical perspective because it adds some clarity to the picture. I have activated a couple of Daily scenarios to be monitored. First one (orange arrows) would give us some bullish market structure drawing a bottom at around 3400 (Binance). The second one (teal arrows) assumes a deeper correction back to 2800 area, and start drawing market structure from that point. I am not (yet) focusing into sub-2000 levels, since that belongs to Weekly based scenarios and would be a consequence of the failure of 2800 area.
Short
by gliderfund
Oil - Eyes on 41.38I never expected a drop this far/this quickly and have felt the pain looking for a bottom too soon; but here we are. With prices closing on the weekly below Sep '16 - June '17 Support (43.x), I see potential for a continued grind down as prices are right back in the eye of the 2015/2016 storm. IF... prices close a weekly bar below 41.38, then I believe we may see clustering/ranging between 34.x-41.x finding midterm support in the overall bottoming process; however I also see potential for a spring down to test and possibly crack the 30 level where I would expect very strong buying at the Feb 2016 neckline between 29-30. In summary - I am looking for a bottoming process between 34.x-41.x with a possible quick spring down to 29.x - this could create a great buying opportunity heading into late 2019-2020 Overall - I believe this could accompany Equities (S&P) retesting the 1800-2100 levels and feel this deflating/inflating - if oil prices run back up to 60/70 heading into 2020 will be very healthy for the economy ------- heading into 2020 elections, wink wink.... Merry Christmas and Good trading all!
NYMEX:CL1!
by smitheric1970
1
BTC Update! Continues to fallQuick update. We broke all support levels discussed in earlier post and I will continue to remain patient but must admit, I am feeling at least a temporary bottom is approaching here. I'm looking for any signs of bull life and they almost showed it earlier with the initial low of $3650 and a bounce to $4000 but failed to follow through from there and now we are testing $3600 as I type this. Looking for a large volume push down and quick recovery personally to give at least a temporary bottom and solid trade for bulls to follow. I'm a long ways off from feeling bullish even if we do bottom as bulls have a ton of work to do for that but this sell off has been pretty strong so would love at least a temporary bottom and a nice several days if not weeks of bulls showing up. Time will tell, be patient. Have yourself a plan and always protect any entries to preserve that precious capital from taking any large hits. Just My 2 Sats!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by My2Sats
BTC HAS RETURNED HOMEFor those who has been around awhile you remember last year between august and september we went up to 5k back down to 3k then never looked back to 20k. I have to put a lot of weight on these levels as being important support levels but a sign that we maybe nearing the end of this bear market at least for price action is concerned. Time I think all depends how we react here at these levels do we have a sharp sell off followed by a good bounce not only on btc but around the market or do we fall into this range from a year ago. I will be looking to try to find some swing trades probably on alts using btc movement to trade direction,
BITMEX:XBTUSD.P
by Playj
Earnings Stock of the Day: DISDisney reports earnings today. The chart has been in a bottoming formation since April of 2018 as this company had a business contraction in 2015. The stock is below its all-time high. The bottom is on the short term within a Trading Range of 30-point dimension. Weekly Chart of DIS shows the trading range. The stock is postured to attempt a breakout of the trading range. This requires that the stock move above the previous all-time high to form a new all-time high. It must sustain the new high and move higher for the trading range to be concluded technically. This length of trading range action typically patterns out the excessive speculation of previous years.
NYSE:DIS
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
US 30 ZigZag Correction Near CompletionNearly there. Probably another rough day or two to get crushed down to support and complete the Zig-Zag correction (WXY). Elliott ABC wave near support. Expect a hammer Doji, a deep spike with reaction lift. Maybe Tues/Weds. Who knows, utterly unpredictable atm. Spy might get down to 253. Nas- who knows?! If index breaks and closes below the blue pivot support box, it's in big trouble and we should expect a bear market. Biting my nails to stubs. Monday wild price swings were astounding, it fooled a lot of us into thinking "This is it! Going up!" Expect consolidation at bottom first, not a giant bounce. As always, this isn't investment advice, trade at your own risk!
DJ:DJI
by DaddySawbucks
5
US 30 Consolidating: Expect Shave after the HaircutFibo 0.62 retrace from Mar/Apr lows to the Sep high intersects lower support trendline at 24750. Lower is possible, but... just sayin'. See Chart: res ipse loquitur. The downdraft should stop and pivot somewhere between the two support lines in chart. Should. Might. Expect a 0.50 retrace up from the pivot before next move. Expect another flashcrash to test the lower support sometime this week. Panic is wearing off now, although the indexes declined today VIX was also lower most of day. This is a pattern we see in consolidation- volatility, still high, but settling off peak highs while equities continue to decline and much whipsaw price action is evident. A consolidative pattern should emerge going into week of the 22nd to complete the Zig-Zag correction that began in January, with breakout to upside anticipating the Nov election. In spite of rate hikes and t-bill yields, earnings should propel equities to higher levels by year-end, and the looming recession is not yet in sight over the horizon. A fifth Elliott Wave going into the new year might carry prices to still higher levels before the real break- probably later in 2019. A bear market will likely arrive next year. The P/C ratio and bear:bull bias are so high now the contrarian view suggests we are near a bottom. So many pundits calling for the Great Crash of 2018 it probably won't happen. Great Crashes always happen when no one expects it, and everyone is wildly bullish! Transportation index is already forming its bottom, it is a leading indicator for the industrials. DJT up 65 Monday, with Dow off 90. From Monday close there might be another 500 pt drop left in the bear wave. Risk:reward for selling short now is more risk than reward. Puts are so expensive you would need a massive selloff to realize significant gains, and the darn things run down so fast, even when you're right, you're wrong. I bought a few just in case anyway! This is purely an educational post for your amusement and is not intended as any kind of investing advice. That said, I am accumulating longs as covered call writes. Good luck!
DJ:DJI
by DaddySawbucks
2
BEAR WITH BITCOIN WHILE IT SEARCHES ITS SOULWe’re at the end of an eleven month pattern where Bitcoin has continued to disappoint and shed bullish sentiment. I expect the chart is self explanatory. The lower highs and higher lows will meet each other this holiday season and, with that, cause Bitcoin to learn what it is and how it will be for the next six to twenty six months. There is no insight I could provide that couldn’t be easily refuted but there is one thing that can be said with any certainty: the price will never move left.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by stiltsmccoy
BTC/USD - Long Term OpportunitiesThat's an update of my initial idea (can be found below), which looks a little more in depth using the VPVR (Volume Profile Indicator). Based on the analyses there can be clearly seen that the current levels are crucial for the price of BTC and a strong move is expected very soon (probably even tomorrow - the SEC decision on the BTC ETF approval). As a result, a break of the triangle is expected with the price of 6700 (POC - the level of control) being a major resistance that the bulls should break and get a close above in order the longer term bullish rally to be initiated. But, in my personal view, the higher risk is the break on the downside with the volume nodes being as significant support/resistance levels. If we going to get a break down the potential target for the BTC price is 3000 - 3600 which is a crucial support area both based on the past price action and the VPVR indicator. But I am sure that we will see a quick bounce from that lows if we get a break down. My only concern is the stochastic which gave a buy signal, but I've tried to project it as well. Not talking about particular trading opportunities here, but in my opinion, the technical set-up is ideal here. Even the RSI formed a triangle and is set to break on an impulsive move. Leave your views and ideas in the comment section. Thanks to @artgen567 who inspired me on this idea. Please, check my other ideas and support by following me if you like my content.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by CAS_Trading
1
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) bottom? DowJones key take aways (2008)Hello all, I'm trying to analyse several bottom formations of different asset classes in order to find key take-aways that could be useful for the BTCUSD bottom formation. On my profile page you can find the BTCUSD analysis based on the same principles. The Dow Jones bottom formation after 2008 financial crisis: - Top 200 MA: 13 300 - Bottom 200MA: 8 300 - Draw a fibonacci retracement from top to bottom: Findings: - V-bottom formation (different then BTC '14, Nikkei '08 -'09) - Before V formation price was trading with a very high volatility in the 85 - 100 - 115 retrace channel from 200MA top - After parabolic selloffs (3); 130% retrace from 200MA top served as support. - Price levels below 130% got bought up linear (V-shape) - Price found support at 100% retrace from 200 MA where it confirmed the bottom - 200 MA in uptrend ever since Link BTC 2014 Crash: - parabolic selloffs - 85 - 100 - 115 % retrace from 200MA top plays still important role during bottom formation shortcommings: - Prediction of 200MA trendline - Empirical analysis I'm looking forward to your feedback. Best, Bavo
DJ:DJI
by Bavo_DB
1
WMT Bottom Facing All-Time High and Trade WarsWMT has been in a bottoming formation most of this year. The big gap up was HFTs taking advantage of those who trade on earnings news. Notice how quickly profit-taking follows. The all-time high is strong resistance. Walmart is one company that is stating it will face revenue and earnings problems due to the Trade Wars and new Tariffs on the Chinese goods it imports. Since this is a discount retail store, the tariffs will eventually force the company to either find another country to import goods from or raise the cost of its imported goods, which is a far more likely scenario. That means US consumers who buy products from Walmart will start to see an increase in the cost of any products or goods imported from China. This could take effect as early as this holiday season. WMT may try to delay some cost increases until next year, but the increase in import costs will be passed onto consumers at some point.
NYSE:WMT
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
Bottoming process BTCFor the first half of 2018 BTC has been in a major bear market, but this was expected and warranted given the massive rally 2017 had for BTC. The thing about manias, crashes, and the market in general is that nothing is new. No matter how "different this time" it seems, it really isn't. This is because human psychology is the same, we continue to be extra bullish at the top and extra bearish at the bottoms. That leaves tell tale signs, footprints, of how the markets will trade in the future. I've been trading since the late 1990's, I earned my bones in the dot com bubble of 1998-2001 (give or take). Believe me, then, like now, we thought it was different. Technology was new, the old school Wall Street people didn't understand it, they wagged their fingers at us saying that none of those companies had any profits, they were all venture backed IPO hype. And they were right, for the most part. Technology stocks, much like cryptocurrencies, were the future. They would change the world, and are on a one way trip to the moon. Then things got frothy, people started taking profits and the world changed. For me I was very lucky to have been taken under the wings of an experienced trader who taught me how to trade. Long and Short. The inevitable dot com crash was quite lucrative for me, as was the dot com bubble itself. The trick is to trade the market that is in front of you, not the one that is behind you, that is to say, just because BTC was 20k 6 months ago doesn't mean it has to be 20k any time soon. In fact the Nasdaq Composite hit 5,000 in March 2000 and didn't see the 5000 level again for 15 years. There are a lot of similar characteristics from the Dot Com bubble, the Nikkei in 1989 and the 1929 DJI crash. As I mentioned these market manias and subsequent crashes left clues. Things to look for when evaluating a market that has crashed since its recent mania. The following are some key factors that represent the bottoming process and the same factors I'm keeping track of on BTC. The first thing I'm looking for is a double top at the parabolic breakout highs. This can either be a higher high after a very fast and agressive pullback or a lower high. Massively agressive bounces with very high volume, V-spike lows. Failures off these high volume lows that start to move more sideways and downward much slower than recent past. Volume eventually starts to dry up, rallies get shorter and sideways action gets longer. Eventually the perma-bulls start to disappear, they go back to their regular jobs, people lose a lot of money. When all of these above factors (and they are mostly qualitative) have happened then I look for two very key technical indicators. A new low spike, the previous low with the high volume which has held for a while actually gets taken out. While the MACD and RSI both put in higher lows. This is called a bullish divergence and coupled with new lows on low volume and a very pessimistic sentiment then by golly we have the makings of a bottom. This is not the buy the dip signal as there is still a lot of pessimism to unwind. However, once we have the new low and a bullish divergence on MACD and RSI (using the 3 day chart with BTC) I unwind my short positions and I start looking to accumulate long positions. This happened the end of June as we broke below the 6k levels. We still have the potential to hit 4970 and 3100 levels, there is no doubt that these are very good possibilities before we see a move to a bullish regime, however the risk of staying short here is too high. For me I've covered my shorts unless tactical trades, and am looking to either sit in cash or wait for good buy opportunities. I place limit orders down near the 4970 level and 3100 level. That covers my down side entries, and even if they eventually don't hold and we continue lower, at least I know there will be some good bounces around there that I can trade around.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by ChrisD_Macro
1
ETH - Bitcoin DROP Happened ON SCHEDULE... here is what's nextI needed to publish this update ASAP Please NOTE The BIG RED ARROW is what is coming We did NOT bounce of 400 on the last dotted black line (we bounced off 500 ETH) It mentions the drop that happened at 2 am (Not room there to fit everything, sorry) On the far left, you see a note about a little rise That's what WILD THEORY is all about History repeating Team Evils AI bots will try to force that same rise and fall.. Forthcoming is a checklist on HOW to use Wild Theory to supplement - TA (as done by yourself or others on Trading View - Sentiment - Price Indicators - Dynamic Forecast Tool (It's online and free) My followers have DOUBLED Must be a reason, thanks to all who follow me Remember, I don't do the charts.. I just anticipate the plans of the manipulators
KRAKEN:ETHUSD
by TradeClass
2
S&P 500: Momentum acceleration means a bottom might have formedThe rate of change shows that the worst might be over for now. The index could break above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement at 2743 and then breakout beyond the 0.786 retracement at 2800 and move higher and higher to around 2830-2835. I modified the "KST" indicator (Know Sure Thing) settings and the result is that the momentum has broken above the zero line, which is bullish. Long entry: 2719-2720 (open gap area) Target: 2830-2835 Stop loss: 2690 More information how the "Know Sure Thing" indicator works: stockcharts.com
SP:SPXLong
by ChartArt
1
AUD/USD - Possible long-term low in place at 0.7410My long-term preferred count indicates, that a long-term low could be in place with the test of 0.7410. A clear break above resistance at 0.7567 will be a strong indication that this is the case. If my long-term count is correct, then wave 2/ bottomed with the test of 0.7410 and a new impulsive rally is about to begin in wave 3/ for a rally to above the peak of wave 1/ at 0.8136. The ideal target for wave 3/ is seen at 0.8993. The possible S/H/S bottom is not really visible on the daily chart, but zoom in and take a look at the 4-hourly chart and see a really nice S/H/S bottom, that will be triggered upon a break above the neckline resistance at 0.7567 for a measure rally to at least 0.7723. So stay focused towards the upside and use a break above the neckline resistance as 0.7567 as you pivot point and divider between a still bearish outlook or a shift towards a bullish outlook.
Long
by EWS