BTC - The HODL em Bulls Push to save $8,700 (or we'll see $8k)Declining 50-Day plus the $8,700 soft support could cause a bounce over $9k back toward the 200-day. If BTC finds the 200 day again we'll likely see a Golden Cross w 50/200.
If $8,700 fails, get ready for the fall to $8k or even $7,700. Wherever we land, it will be a bounce back up to whatever level is above it.
Bounce
LONG - THETA - Trading OpportunityPrice retested support and looks like its time for the next leg up.
Entry: 0.000010007
StopLoss: 0.00000945
Target 1: 0.00001082
Target 2: 0.00001209
Target 3: 0.00001297
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LONG - AMB- Trading OpportunityDaily retest of the previous bottom, thinking that it might reach the previous high once again.
Entry: 0.00000348
SL: 0.00000326
Target 1: 0.00000374
Target 2: 0.00000404
Target 3: 0.00000451
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RCN/BTC - Kijun Bounce and 3 Inside up printingThis is a bullish Altcoin and we all know there are not many.
It had a nice retrace to the kijun bounced and in 5 hours we will see if on the daily close it closes this 3 inside up!
This one looks primed for the next leg off the secondary corrective movement!
Trade, Chart, Learn, Repeat!
Coach K
Twitter: @coachkcrypto
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Disclaimer: This is not to be taken as financial advice - This is what I am doing
LONG - GRS/BTC - Trading OpportunityBINANCE:GRSBTC resting above MA200 on the 4h chart with a hidden bullish divergence, nice R/R as stop loss can be placed right below and we can target previous highs for a quick play in case BTC decides to rally.
Entry: 0.00002487
Target 1: 0.00002667
Target 2: 0.00002838
Target 3: 0.0000306
SL: 0.00002389
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Dead Cat Bounce - A Spooky PatternIntroduction
Its halloween ! And i felt like making a post about spooky stuff related to trading. I wanted to discuss about what is a zombie economy but i clearly don't have the time nor the experience to do that. So instead i'll talk about the dead cat bounce, a pattern commonly found in downtrending (bearish) markets, this pattern is also known as "Bear market rally".
We'll describe the pattern, its causes, its upsides and downsides. Unfortunately my knowledge on price patterns is relatively low, if you feel the need to correct me leave a comment.
Brace Yourself The Dead Cat Is Coming !
A dead cat bounce is a pattern appearing during downtrends, this pattern is associated to a brief upper movement (recovery) followed by a continuation of the downtrend, therefore the pattern can be classified as a retracement.
Terminology
The term "dead cat bounce" comes from the saying that "Even a dead cat will bounce if it falls from a great height", physics won't necessarily agree with that but the phrase can be deconstructed in order to explain the pattern described :
"Even a dead cat will bounce if it falls from a great height "
- Dead : Refer to the downtrend.
- Bounce : Describe the motion of the pattern.
- Great Height : Emphasis on the prior downtrending movement magnitude.
Causes Of A Dead Cat Bounce
Causes of certain motions in prices fluctuations are hard to describe, the structures (trends, cycles/seasonality...)/patterns in price can be either : stochastic (the pattern is formed because of a realizations of random fluctuations) or deterministic (the pattern is formed because of certain external causes).
A deterministic cause of a dead cat bounce is described by Kolja Johannsen as investors taking excessive risk and unprofitable positions in order to recover an initial loss in a declining market, the accumulations of those investors as well as investors believing in a reversal participate in the creation of this upward movement.
Upsides Of Dead Cat Bounces
When a security allow short positions, dead cat bounces allow late investors to go with the downtrend from a more interesting point.
In stock markets they can allow investors to potentially profit from the bounce, however such strategy require extremely precise timing, one must make sure to sell at the maximum of the retracement. Such methodology make the investor exposed to the continuity of the downtrend, thus making the risk reward extremely uninteresting.
Downsides Of Dead Cat Bounces
A dead cat bounce like any retracement is a parasitic motion in the main trend, they might make investors believe in a reversal, in a mathematical standpoint those parasitic motions affect technical indicators, this is where robustness is required, robust indicators might be able to ignore the dead cat bounce.
The dead cat bounce deform the main trend and therefore can add complexity to a trend model.
Above a simple linear trend, we can describe it as a simple line + white noise, such equations are called equations of motions. However describing a dead cat bounce mathematically might require additional complexity.
Detecting/Avoiding Dead Cat Bounces
Classifying upward movements as either a retracement or reversal is no easy task, however we can still make use of several tools in order to detect or avoid dead cat bounces.
The first tool being filters, filtering a dead cat bounce can be made using a low pass filters (filter noise/cyclic components) or notch filters (filter cyclic components). The filter setting must be adjusted in order to be able to filter the pattern.
Blackman filter of period 100
Rolling max/min with period 100 (Donchian channels), no highest low have been detected here, witch allow us to remain with the main trend, note that rolling max/min are also low pass filter.
Another approach might be made using support and resistances, we can see that both the minimum/maximum of the dead cat bounce are both pullbacks, altho this observation is clearly insignificant and lack logic (like most technical analysis approach) unlike the previously discussed method.
Conclusions
Altho my experience on patterns is low, i hope i could teach you something new in this post. Dead cat bounces make parts of those disruptive patterns that might make us take a bad position, we have also seen that they can be made from the emotional bias from investors, that is premature re-entering of a declining market, which is never a good idea. Finally we discussed methods to filter/detect such pattern.
Like most patterns in technical analysis their detection/interpretation is relatively subjective to the user, the uniformity/complexity of stock market prices make detection of patterns quite complex. But the most important thing to take from this post is that strategies robust to retracements can help the investor make better decisions, going long because of a dead cat bounce is not a enjoyable experience, that cat wasn't so alive in the end...Happy Halloween !
LONG - EVX - Trading Opportunity#EVX Another retest to support, expecting a bounce here as it usually does.
Entry: 0.00003700
TP 1: 0.00004278
TP 2: 0.00004774
TP 3: 0.00005256
SL: 0.00003374
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LONG - REQ - Trading OpportunityBINANCE: REQBTC using the daily MA50 as support looking like there is room for some upside.
Entry: 0.00000143
Target 1: 0.00000153
Target 2: 0.00000160
Target 3: 0.00000173
SL: 0.00000137
CryptoCue is not providing investment advice and is not taking subscribers’ personal circumstances into consideration when discussing investments. Investment involves a high degree of risk and should be considered only by persons who can afford to sustain a loss of their entire position.
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Hammer on DailyBounce off support supplemented w/ news of large prive equity placement of up to $20M; $1M already purchased @.5/ 35% higher current SP!
20191024 XBTEUR Open Short PositionHello,
So, Clearly there's an Head & Shoulder formation at this point, RSI and all indicators tells that's a probably good time to open short position.
Price Targets:
1. 6690 Eur - Probably bounce to 6720 or not.
2. 6670 Eur - Probably bounce to 6720 this is more likely in personal opinion.
3. 6620 Eur - More probabilities to bounce and try to go back again to 6800 zone.
Cheers,
Charter X
Possible Double Bottom on DRGN ?Continuation of the linked Related Idea:
All indicators look as though they are going to go up for me.
Looks like a double bottom for DRGN ? Possible upcoming cup and handle ? Really ? Finally?
MACD RSI and the Bounce all look bullish to me.
Could this finally be the pump that lets DRGN lift off once more? Really ? Finally?
Story at 11.
Possible post-earnings bounce levels for Taiwan SemiconductorsWith industry-leading technology and low exposure to China tariffs, Taiwan Semiconductor is poised to thrive in the trade war era. The stock soared to overbought levels ahead of earnings, then blew away analyst estimates on its earnings report. However, the stock has been dropping after earnings because the price had gotten too high, too fast. Its current P/E of about 24 is about average for the semiconductor sector, but it's well above TSM's five-year average of 16. TSM is bound to bounce at some point and resume its uptrend; the question is when.
If this were any other other sector, I'd expect to plummet right through our first support level. However, semiconductors have absolutely defied gravity lately, so it's fully possible that the first support will give us our bounce. Here's one possible scenario, in which we get a mini-bounce from the first support and then a stronger bounce from the first trend line:
Here's another likely scenario in which we fall to the second trend line and bounce from there:
Even if we do break the second trend line, we've got a nice, strong volume node right underneath it at 44.17 to act as a secondary support. Best case scenario for buyers is that we head all the way down to about 42, where another strong volume node is located.
My strategy for playing this is to buy at the first trend line, with a stop loss right beneath it in case the stock breaks down further. If it does, then re-enter at the second trend line and just hold, with no stop loss. If it falls further to 42, triple the size of my position. As always, this is just an idea as to how the market will move and is not intended as investment advice. Happy trading!