Bounce
GM General Motors Pre Earnings LONGGM is on a 4H chart. Fundamentally, the last earnings were good. GM is challenged by the adoption
of electric vehicles and the transformation of its core business. Small EV companies ( CANOO, RIDE, WKHS, FFIE, MULN)
are mainly undercapitalized noise. The competition is really TSLA and Ford. Earnings upcoming are April 25th
Technically, the price has been trending also a support of the lower standard deviations of the anchored VWAP originating
on the date of the last earnings. Recently price has moved from -2 STD VWAP band to the higher -1 STD band.
Price is now sitting on the support shown by the Luxalgo indicator with the earnings report due The VWAP bands
are quickly losing slope as earnings report day of April 25 approaches. the zero lag MACD has lines crossing under the
zero line and the histogram has just turned positive. These serve as confirmation entry signals.
I see this as entry time for an earnings play. Entry is by market order with a stop loss below the demand zone.
Targets are VWAP ( purple line), the midline between the demand/supply zones, and then the final target is the +1 STD above
VWAP ( downsloping stepped black line). Overall a reward for the risk of about 4X. I may opt to play this with call options
striking $35.00 expiring on 5/5 and currently priced at FWB:112 per contract.
🔥 ICX Oversold Bounce After Massive Run-UpICX has been one of the major winners of the last week. However, price action has been negative after topping out around $0.48.
With BTC seemingly bouncing, it seems that ICX is primed for a huge upward move, just like we saw a couple of days ago.
- ICX has hit hourly oversold for the first time in weeks. Hourly oversold in a strong uptrend is a great moment to enter.
- ICX has bounced off the 0.618 Fibonacci Retracement line, which is often a strong resistance.
I'm aiming for the orange and red lines as my targets (0.40 and 0.433)
SPY Setting up for a bounce soonOnce there was a guy who talked about an outcome that nobody believed in. He was laughed at and ridiculed for his ideas. He tried to explain his point of view, but people dismissed him and thought he was foolish. However, he remained persistent in his beliefs and continued to speak about his theory. Then one day, something happened that proved him right, and suddenly, nobody was laughing anymore. They realized that they had been wrong and that the guy had been right all along. The guy's persistence and belief in his ideas had paid off, and he was now recognized for his unique and innovative thinking.
Oh wait. That guy is me.
We're likely going to bounce soon, though. Look at the fib measurements I'm providing in this chart. We tapped the 100% extension perfectly. This does look wave 3-ish so be cautiously optimistic. I discussed 3900 in a recent video as well. Well, here we are. Almost 150 points lower from my previous idea that I shared here that was laughed at.
But seriously - look at that perfect bounce off the 100. Probably just a bounce, but a bounce will come overnight, then tomorrow when NFP is released... we'll see if this is a wave 3 or not.
GBPJPY I Potential bounce from demand zone 🚀
Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
** GBPJPY Analysis - Listen to video!
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AUDNZD I Potential intraday buy from demand zoneWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
**AUDNZD Analysis - Listen to video!
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BTC QUICK UPDATE!!Hello everyone, if you like the idea, do not forget to support it with a like and follow.
Welcome to this quick BTC update. BTC is dumping badly after breaking down from the $23k level. Now, what's next?
According to the chart, BTC is forming an expanding wedge-like structure in 4hr time frame which is generally a bullish pattern. Currently, it is touching the lower trendline of this wedge and bouncing. If BTC stays here for a while then definitely we can expect some relief bounce from here.
Invalidation:- If the candle closes below this wedge then expect more dump.
What do you think?
Do you also expect some relief bounce from here or do you expect more dump?
Share your views in the comment section.
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Thank you!
AUDUSD shortAlthough you could build a case for a bottom reversed H&S long. It's actually a short setup that I have in sight.
It's because it's a broken demand zone that became a supply zone and it had a significant local rally afterward.
So for me it's basically two setups in one. A supply zone and bounce zone, which could indicate a very strong zone for a correction or reversal.
It's of course if price can manage reaching these levels and not punches through. Nothing is curtain, just ideas and probabilities.
AUDNZD I Potential buy from demand zone Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
**AUDNZD Analysis - Listen to video!
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AUDUSD I Local buy from demand zoneWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
**AUDUSD Analysis - Listen to video!
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GBPUSD I Potential buy from demand zone Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
**GBPUSD Analysis - Listen to video!
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Bitcoin Reversal Signal on WEEKLY - part 2This is a follow up of my other idea ''Bitcoin Reversal Signal on Weekly''.
Here, I predicted that bitcoin would reverse on the major weekly rsi divergence and it did for sure! Now looking at the daily chart: I don't think this bounce is over yet, I think there is still some juice left. To me it looks like BTC is forming an inverse head and shoulders, this breakout could send us pumping really hard, however, there is still a big resistance zone at 30k. I think this move can reach 30k for sure, there is a chance at 30k would break and then I think we can overshoot towards 40k+. Is the bottom in? I'm not sure, but for now, I think Bitcoin has some room to go the upside. Remember that we went down for more than a year without any significant counter-rallies, so I don't think this rally is unjustified.
KOL retesting supportIf newly formed support holds, we could have a solid move up. Set alerts for this one.
Details on the chart.
Good luck traders
HIODExcellent chance for a bounce from the support zone here. Entry ON BOUNCE OR RESISTANCE ZONE BREAKOUT. Details on the chart
Good luck traders
TSLA Relief Rally *Be Careful-(Short Term Bullish)***Warning Monday Jan 2nd (Market is Closed) - Q4 EV Deliveries - good report then TSLA will complete H&S pattern and continue Bullish Island Gap Reversal
Positive:
`TSLA is Very Oversold, we could see a continuation of this bounce up too 150-180 if production release is great on Monday.
-Bullish Chart patterns show inverse H&S pattern created by Island Gap Reversal.
LARGE Buying Volume strong-sign of institutional investment - this could be accumulation phase
Beginning of January tends to be positive for the stock market
NDX & SPX showing signs of upcoming relief rally (*before we make final leg down)
HYG & JNK Bonds are showing bullish divergence
Negative:
Monday possible less deliveries than expected -if is lack luster I can see TSLA dropping 7-12% to retest the low
China Covid Cases/ Shanghai Factory Slow production
Tesla is still in a Strong Bear Market pattern
Elon and Twitter Drama
Earnings report on the 23rd - with factory issues, supply issues - it does not look promising
Macro H&S Pattern puts the measured decline to $90-$80 range
Sentiment:
Short Term -Swing /Day Trading -I am only Bullish for the Short Term* (1-2 weeks) .
Long Term Investing: I am Bullish for Long Term (5 yrs) ....over-all I would choose the $109 area as 1st pt accumulation / $80 area second point / $60 area 3rd pt (TSLA will Grow 25% Sales YoY for next 5yrs) PEG ratio looking good
Bitcoin | Dead cat bounce?The trend drawn from the ATH level of 2011 looks like a pullback movement in the red line. Price can say that the sloping trend line is a pullback movement after it broke down in November of last year. As for the RSI indicator, as indicated by the red circle in the figure, the situation is very close to the scene of the sudden fall in the summer of 2015.
In general, the 15500 zone was the bottom of the bear market, and most traders are anticipating the market with the belief and hope that a bull run has begun. As far as I'm concerned, the bear market is not over and we expect to see another new bottom. This upward movement that has been going on since the beginning of the year is seen as a possible "Dead Cat's Reflection". It is too early to tell if this is the case, as the rate will prove to be a dead cat by breaking below the previous bottom.
PARA: bounce play at pretty big supportPARA (Paramount)
Take the weekly chart, connect the lows since 2009 and you get a nice trend line .
Price seems to react to this area so the risk reward is quiet good here for a long swing trade .
The trend line is your support.
16 is your stop.
I'm targeting 19.40 and 20.71, then we reevaluate.
For those who want to invest for the long term, PARA offers a generous dividend.
Trade safe!
AMZN: Waiting for a Juicy Little BouncePrimary Chart: AMZN's Primary Downtrend with Parallel Channel, Daily 8 and 21 EMAs, Fibonacci Levels
Summary:
1. SquishTrade's longer-term view is bearish. In the short-term, prices could bounce to retrace the first wave of decline from the November 15 high at $103.79.
2. Short-term bounce targets are $100. After the bounce reverses lower, downside price targets are $78-$82.
3. The existence of a primary downtrend suggests probabilities favor more weakness ahead despite any bounces that may occur into early December or year end. But the existence of a secular uptrend suggests that prices could behave in a more complex manner, whipsawing around the secular uptrend, or even surprising to the upside for a while given the length, and therefore strength, of this very long term trendline. So be ready for anything.
4. Reacting with flexibility to the levels and the technical patterns is a better approach than blindly relying on a forecast, even if the forecast is well reasoned, and even if it was produced by some sort of expert.
SquishTrade is waiting for a juicy little bounce in AMZN. That bounce may help determine whether the corrective rally off the YTD lows is finished.
At the outset, SquishTrade holds a longer-term bearish view on AMZN. Please see the technical basis for this bearish view in the chart and post below. This longer-term view is slightly complicated by the fact that the primary trend (over the past year) is on a collision course with a 25-year secular uptrend.
Supplementary Chart A
In the short-term, an imminent bounce looks possible. A falling wedge pattern, shown below in Supplementary Chart B, typically provides a bullish signal. But if it breaks bearishly, that would be more damaging and bearish, more surprising and unexpected, potentially causing a steeper than normal selloff. This is because the pattern catches market participants off guard by breaking in the opposite direction from what is expected.
Supplementary Chart B
To determine whether the corrective rally off the YTD low is finished, evaluate any near-term bounces and whether they remain below the November 15 peak at $103.79. Any short positions should be entered with key risk levels defined, and if a short were entered around $99-$102, the November 15 high at $103.79 might be an excellent invalidation point—depending of course on the risk tolearance, overall trading approach, and position size (position size is integrally related to the stop or invalidation level). Here is an intraday chart showing a hypothetical illustration showing one way this bounce could unfold as a short setup:
Supplementary Chart C
If the bounce reverses underneath the November 15 high and shows confirmation of the next leg down, then a reasonable target lies at the $78-$82 range. This is support at the lower edge of the parallel channel as well as an area with key Fibonacci projection targets and the 25-year secular uptrend (depending when exactly the next leg down occurs, as that 25-year trendline's slope causes the support level to rise over time).
If the bounce takes out the November 15 high at $103.79, however, then the corrective rally has not completed. In this case, the corrective bounce off the lows may have further to run before AMZN likely reverses back lower. If the November 15, 2022, highs are taken, consider the upper Fibonacci clusters (the higher yellow circle on the Primary Chart) where price may chose to reverse lower. This level is at $112-$113.
In short, SquishTrade favors AMZN to go lower to $78 to $82 within the next couple months. The main forecast is lower over time. The short-term forecast is potentially higher in a bounce first. The bounce could run to upper 90s or even $100 in one scenario. Or the bounce could run to key Fibonacci levels at $112-$113 if the so-called Santa Rally materializes in December 2022.
Bold predictions abound on social media for markets and stocks and cryptos. Many like to call the bottom repeatedly as prices continue to fall. Some like to call for much lower lows for years into the future. Both are possible, and it's possible no one is right if price just chops sideways for years.
And the reality is that no one can actually predict the future with any certainty. Technical analysis is about knowing the patterns, seeing the levels and reacting to the way price unfolds when it encounters and responds to these patterns / levels. It helps to remain open and flexible to any outcome rather than reliant on a third-party forecast regardless whether its well reasoned and supported by complex cycles or De-Mark signals, and regardless whether every single Elliott Wave has been carefully labeled.
Thanks for reading. Let me know what you think too.
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Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed.
Please note further that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for the near term. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. And countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is lower probability and is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders.
DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.