Bounce
BTC - Here comes the bounceJust one man's somewhat educated opinion and that education level and quality can be debated.
We have the volume we need to see for it to be a bottom. We tapped the low end of that order block.
I don't now if its a never look back bottom. Sure, it could be.
But I see the makings of a bounce here.
BTC: BULLISH PATTERN IN LTF! WEEKEND RELIEF RALLY?Hello everyone, if you like the idea, do not forget to support with a like and follow.
Welcome to this quick BTC update.
BTC is forming a falling wedge pattern in a 45min time frame. A falling wedge is generally a bullish pattern. Currently, BTC is trading near the lower trendline of the wedge. We can expect a weekend pump from here.
If it breaks out from the falling wedge then we can expect more pumps.
Invalidation level:- If any candle closes below $18,600 then this chart becomes invalidated.
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KNC - Bounce from the trendline, easy moneyReasons to take short
⭐️ Buyer on BTC
⭐️ Trendline is clean
⭐️ Volume increased
⭐️ Impulse down
⭐️ 3rd touch
⭐️ 100 ATR
Fix profit by parts:
2% - 1/3
4% - 1/3, stoploss to breakeven
What's left, hold to the maximum
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P.S. Always do your own analysis before a trade. Put a stop loss. Fix profit in parts. Withdraw profits in fiat and reward yourself and your loved ones
Bounce Risk for Selling ShortStocks that are falling rapidly often have the illusion that they will never stop falling. The panic that settles into the mindset of an investor who is watching his or her profits and capital erode overnight can overwhelm a stock’s price action. So for a brief time, the stock can behave outside of what the chart patterns would suggest was reasonable. But the higher risk is always the bounce.
Stocks can bounce without warning. Huge up days that form in a downtrend can cause significant losses for short sellers.
A stock bounces because it hits a price point where:
1. b uyers are waiting to go long
2. where large-lot short sellers are preparing to exit
Monthly and yearly highs are areas where there is risk for a bounce. These bounces are often caused by small-lot investors and traders perceiving this as a good place to buy a stock that has corrected. The old adage, “buy low and sell high,” prompts the uninformed to buy as a stock is running down without understanding the dynamics of a downtrend. So they buy at monthly and yearly highs when they are called out by the various news and trading chat forums: “XYZ has hit its 52-week price, this is a good time to buy XYZ.”
Another big bounce area is far more important: the monthly lows and yearly lows. This is the price range where the wiser bargain hunters and bottom fishers lurk around. They know that low area is solid support and that a downtrending correction isn’t going to last on a strong company. Therefore, lows pose even bigger risk of bounces that actually can reverse the downtrend, especially if the steep descent has been underway for some time.
A stock may nearly pierce through a sturdy support level, reach the yearly low and then suddenly make a V-shaped short-term bottom or shift sideways depending upon the strength of the stock and company. These sudden changes of trend catch many short traders unaware and create larger losses than monthly and yearly highs.
Sideways patterns also create sturdy support levels where large bounces can occur for the rapidly falling stock. Moving averages for long-term trendlines are another area of strong support where bounce risk is high.
How to avoid bounces for selling short:
Identify each area where a stock could bounce. This includes the highs and lows of sideways action from prior years. Identify long-term moving average support on weekly charts. Identify monthly and yearly the highs and lows.
After you have identified all support areas, determine if this support will be weak, moderate, or strong. Weak support will seldom cause problems for a falling stock and usually a resting day, at best, will form. Moderate support can cause a bounce that can take out tight stop losses and strong support can potentially wipe out a wider stop loss for a bigger loss.
It is important to calculate the point gain to the lean side when selling short because bounces can occur before the support is actually touched. And do not be fooled by the falling stock that runs just beyond the support level--often a small run beyond the lowest low is just a ‘gottcha’ sell short entry for bargain hunters. This is the area where you will find the larger reversal candle patterns.
Selling short is a faster-paced trading condition. It can be more lucrative with faster profits than the upside at times, but you must have plenty of experience to watch for high-risk areas in the downtrend and a strong mental attitude that allows you to cut losses quickly.
MA200 holding?Seems like we hit weekly ma200, went throu it, nothing out of the ordinary in a 4 year cycle.
We can now hold, lateralize and try to go to the top ofthe downward red channel, around 25-28k.
Lets see if it holds ma200. It must, otherwise we go into unknown territory below ma200.
Below 19k USD will start to look catastrophic and also feel like cheap btc to buy.
Crypto Death, destruction, despair.
Sounds like a decent time to buy, if you buy here just know it may dip lower.
Dont try and buy the bottom, have a plan and stick to it with dip buys.
Scale in or just buy and hold. GLHF
Probably bounce and consolidate a little after everything cools down.
Things will probably get boring and require some patience after all this pans out.
SPY bounce off the support line SPX could rebounce here where it is since its a long support line which also coincides with the 38% of the fib line
While Everyone is fearful I see 11 RBitcoin is now at support, even if we are going lower (which probably is where we are going) bitcoin has a great chance to bounce from here and reverse the trend to 25k maybe flirt with the 27k then down we go
Nas100 for BUYIf price action gets the the highlighted zone that i placed on the chart. Look for rejection and engulfing candles for an entry to the upside. NAS100
We completed the test of Phase C!! Off to the races from here =)This was a Wychoff accumulation phase 1 year in the making. My original ideas for this 2 weeks ago are somewhat playing out, see links below.
Not financial advise, DYOR.
What's with the Volume on this coin?
Looking at WLUNAUSD, the one thing that I'm seeing is that the Volume of trading on this coin seems to be exponentially greater than what it was when it was at even it's greatest value, or at any time before it crashed.
Is this basically vulture trading, looking to take advantage of the resulting volatility at the bottom here? Or is this some sort of accumulation? The volume spike happened maybe a day after this coin hit its theoretical bottom.
AMZN: ON THE DIVING BOARD.AMZN is currently sitting on a major historical support between 2020 and 2080.
I believe it has never been so oversold. It does't mean it cannot go lower.
So, will it dive? One thing is for sure, tech and growth are not in favour.
You have 3 options here:
1. You think the support holds. Go long. The coming stock split could boost the price.
2. You believe the market keeps on selling. Short it if it breaks the support.
3. Wait for lower levels (1683, 1593, 1346) to go long.
Pick your winner.
Trade safe!
Short term APE entry and possible levelsThis is a very short term IDEA. As asia wkes up to a pure rout and realizes that there are no more macro news to be priced in this month. I believe we will see a very short lived rally. I stand by my prediction that over the course of the next couple of weeks APE will reach 1.03$. However for a quick scalp it is looking sweet to buy 7.70 and sell 9.50-10.05$.
High risk play given current market volatility. Maximum 1% cap trade.
S&P Bounces At $4000The S&P 500 continued to decline last week. Past levels of support formed from
previous lows, so we had to look at the next obvious level of support.
In this case, it was not a previous high or low but a psychological level in the form
of the $4000 round number. The weekly timeframe clearly displays a reversal candle
that did not close below $4000, which is a good indication of it being a strong level of support.
Price could still break this level, but for now, it is holding. What we want to see going
forward is a bounce from support and a resumption of the bull trend. A pattern of higher
highs and higher lows will indicate bullishness in the market.
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XAUUSD (GOLD) price actionGold showed a dead cat bounce after hitting a fresh three-month low at $1810.
Technical:
The near–term support is around $1800, a breach below targets $1750.
Bounce tradeBecause the market is in such an extreme short term oversold condition now it makes it easier to trade a bounce. because you don't have to be in near the bottom
Potential Bullish BTC 11 May 2022BTC 11 May 2022
The current implied volatility is at 81.61%/year
So that converted into daily is 5.14%
The opening price was on 30970
So based on that our
TOP 32600
BOT 29410
This channel has a 88.3% change to sustain based on the last 290 candles
At the same time with 79.3% changes
TOP 32200
BOT 29800
From fundamental point, today we have CPI release and this marks a huge volatility moment
From volume point, current POC is around 31100
So based on this, and how the SPX market moved in the last 12h aprox, I can expect a small bullish moment
for this we can wait and make a long entry around 30k, with a stop loss on 29750/29500/29410
The other was is to not wait for the rebounce on the support and instead just enter now, with the same stop loss values.
For take profit look for 31k+, after 31k you can start securing some profits and move the stop loss on break even.
TSLATSLA is at bounce zone right now off of the trendline. Regardless underneath 800 is a buy and I think we see this have a nice sized bounce in the coming days or next week.
1000 test isn't out of the woods.
AR - Scalp short. Follow it before it's too late!We can take short either on breaking two levels that are lower or when price makes false breakout of local high. Be aware about btc strip.
⭐️ BTC bearish
⭐️ Trend is bearish
⭐️ Volume at top
⭐️ Good levels nearby
⭐️ Doing last pullback to kill bears
⭐️ 161 ATR
Will enter when price squeezes to the level on lower timeframes, the base will form and the strip will get faster.
Fix profit by parts:
1% - 1/3
2% - 1/3, stoploss to breakeven
What's left, hold to the maximum
What do you think of this idea? What is your opinion? Share it in the comments📄🖌
If you like the idea, please give it a like. This is the best "Thank you!" for the author 😊
P.S. Always do your own analysis before a trade. Put a stop loss. Fix profit in parts. Withdraw profits in fiat and reward yourself and your loved ones
BTC: BOTTOM IS IN OR MORE DUMP AHEAD?Hello everyone, if you like the idea, do not forget to support with a like and follow.
Welcome to this BTC update. I know it is a very tough time for each of us but remember these tough times are always a big buying opportunity also. First of all, do not panic still we hold an important level of support.
Let's get to the charts first.
BTC is reaching the lower trendline of the parallel channel which is formed in the weekly time frame. BTC holds this channel since the starting of 2021. Every time price came to lower support we have seen a very good bounce in it. I'm expecting the same this time.
Although, we might see some wicks below the channel the important thing to watch out for is the next weekly closing. If next week closes below the channel ($30k) then our next main support level is at $19k.
Right now this is the best time to buy BTC and some good Altcoins because the risk is very low here but don't buy with leverage. Buy only on spot. And if the weekly close is below $30k then I'm exiting the market and focusing only on short positions.
What do you think about this?
Do you think we get a bounce from here or do you think that it's over for the bulls?
Share your views in the comment section.
If you like this idea then do support it with like and follow.
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Pick up that COIN when it hits da floorWhen a coin drops it is merely instinctual to pick it right up, thats money we're talking about, can't leave it on the floor...
Using a term I coined, harmonic wolfekraft, I have obtained the following scenario for COIN.
Summary
- Look for a bounce around 135 this week (4/18-4/20 range most likely). The bounce zone is 130-140. If it drops below that we might have a bigger problem on our hands and it could drop as low as 92. More likely to bounce in zone though.
- Initial target of 166 by around 4/25 (before the Apr 29 expiry)
- Intermediate target of 227 -240 by mid-June (the 227 is actually possible by 6/2 )
- Max Target by 6/24 is 350s - this is theoretically possible, but not statistically plausible... the time-series adj. target by 6/24 is 288.
Explaination :
- The bigger picture is that COIN is working toward completing a larger bearish harmonic, with the X at its ATH right after its IPO, the C is TBD but I used logic from the nested smaller harmonics within, levels from wolfe waves, proprietary control charts, and MMM by how options are currently priced to determine a bounce zone/bottom likely in the 130-140 range (worth watching closely this week).
- Within the AB of the larger developing harmonic, COIN completed a nested bearish Crab within a bearish deep crab back on 5/12/'21 - 11/9/'21. From there it started downside to the larger C.
- There is a new nested bearish harmonic development that aligns with a bottoming around 135. A bounce from around 135 would setup for a potential completion of a nested Bearish A Butterfly within a slightly larger Bearish A Butterfly, and interestingly, their D would form right at the intermediate targets I am getting using wolfe-wave EPA-ETA off the 1-4 resistance. These same levels are also showing up as critical levels in a stability monitoring algo I created using control charts and robust rando cut forest. Essentially, below 135 in a weeks time would make COINs level a statistical outlier with over 90% probability of explosive bounce.
- looking at the MMM for Apr 22 the range is 135 -160 which aligns with bounce zone and point bounce level. The MMM for Apr 29 is priced for 130-165 - the initial target/time to target I am getting from using the minor wolfe wave (blue) in chart is 166. I do love this setup. Note the relatively huge wolfe wave buy signal that just occured (bottom panel (wws)); at smaller time frames (5-15 min), there are trace buy signals starting to show up which indicates bounce is near.
- finally, the intermediate targets using the major wolfe wave 1-4 projection (grey in chart) are, indeed, statistically plausible: fitting a time series model to COIN, an optimal selection is ARIMA(2,1,2) w/ p = 0.42. The upper 80-95% Prediction Interval on 6/2 (223-263) spans the intermediate target range of 227-240. The adjusted target by 6/24 of 288 is the 95% PI.. although such a move would be kinda crazy, it could occur in a scenario where BTC explodes and COIN follows and runs to meet its 1-4 projection prior to ETA (not impossible, but not expected TBH).
I am expecting a bounce to initial target and then a continuation on that momentum to the intermediate target range and am considering the following play (FOR THE CURIOUS, OBVIOUSLY NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE):
COIN May 13 160 calls IF it bounces at or before 135 this week
COIN June 17 185 calls IF it bounces at or before 135 this week
Bless you all,
The Alpinist
