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UPS has some, uh, GAPSI was looking into UPS as a possible investment, and wanted to get a price, but after looking at the chart, I'm not sure it's worth it. There seems to be a lot of potential downside, including a pretty sizeable gap around $120. With almost everyone telling me the market is going to crash, I'm thinking we won't see it crash just yet, which does allow for some return in UPS's price to around $223-$225. The question, does it bounce there or keep going? I'm not sure, which is why I'll wait for confirmation of price action, but it's looking like UPS needs to cool off a bit. The move to $108 would be around a 45%-50% drop, which really isn't out of the question as it brings us back to pre-covid levels, when the shipping craze started. Thoughts?
NYSE:UPSShort
by nicktussing77
1
Educational Series: Trading with Boxes (Part 2)Remember from Part 1, that boxes - identify momentum - is trend-following - is reactionary, and does not predict or anticipate a move. In addition to using boxes to identify support/resistance levels, we can use boxes to identify breakout levels. Breakout levels are identified when the price breaks from a previous day's low/high. If the price breaks from the low/high of multiple days, then you can expect a more significant move in that direction. In Example 1: - Price rejects the resistance level (formed by the confluence of 2 previous day's high) - Breaking below the previous day's low - Selling opportunity, SL beyond the box high, TP at the lower support level formed by the confluence of 2 box lows. In Example 2: - Price rejects resistance level (formed by the confluence of 4 previous days' high) - Breaking below the previous day's low - Selling opportunity, SL beyond the resistance level, TP at the lower support level, formed by the confluence of 2 box lows. Note: In this case, the Risk:Reward ratio is lower than 1. When using boxes, because it is reacting to price, it can have a tendency to be slightly lagging. It is always a good practice to combine at least 2 different types of indicators in your analysis.
Education
by JinDao_Tai
Educational Series: Trading with Boxes (Part 1)Boxes are drawn on the chart of any timeframe, depending on the trader's preference. Typically, drawn on the - H1 timeframe identifies short-term, weekly trend and interim support & resistance levels - H4 timeframe identifies medium-term, monthly trend and key support & resistance levels - Daily timeframe identifies longer-term trend and major support & resistance levels. These boxes help traders identify momentum and is used as a trend-following indicator. However, these boxes do not predict or anticipate a move. Instead, it reacts to the price movement. Drawing the Boxes 1) Identify the Highs & Lows of the period (Day/Week/Month) 2) Draw a box encompassing the Highs & Lows with a box Basically, on the H1 chart, you would have drawn a daily candle (without tails or shadows). Support & Resistance levels with Boxes When the lows of 2 boxes align, this can form a support level. In another example, if a series of boxes form a high within the same area, this could form a resistance area.
Education
by JinDao_Tai
H4 TA analysis of the current situation with two options ahead Daily: We have a not clear downtrend, almost empty area below 8.50. Next serious support is 7.40 H4: Downtrend for 5 days (-23%), accumulation for 13 days with further bearish breakout. At 8.6 - new accumulation. After false breakout, no high correction, 3rd bar after FB is "stop bar". Next bar in bearish. reached 80% H4 ATR for 3 hours. It seems that shorts are nearby, but we have to be sure, that other scenario is cancelled. The best short signal for us will be small bars (H1-H4) in yellow box, just above the 8.5 line. Tp is 3-5% above the 7.40
Short
by rakhascapital
3
SPX is strong. Can we see ATH before the rate hikes?Hi everyone, Weekly SPX update here. Strong grind higher continues. Today we gapped down at the open on CPI news before market open. However, the gap was filled in the first hour and a half of trading. Strong rebound after bad news tells me that investors are optimistic about the equity market future. My levels are working great. Below: 4529 4496 Above: 4613 4672 Now: 4583 Let me know what are your thoughts on the near future of the market. As always, trade wisely and good luck! ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclaimer!!! This is not financial advise.
SP:SPXLong
by AyBe_Invest
3
Square or Block, who cares? We are going higher. Hi everyone, As a proud bagholder, I present to you the NYSE:SQ chart. Slaughtered as all growth stocks, the price finally bounced this week for +15% gain for now. That's nothing compared to meteoric dump of the last few months. The chart. Last 2 year POC is at 230 . All-time POC is at 60 . Square has been investing into growth for many years now, I think real value of the stock is nowhere near 60. Thus, I doubt we return to that range. The 100-150 price zone is a wild west, with swift moves and low volume. We should slice through it on the upside. Next significant supply zone is 151 . Further up: 170, 191, 222-230 . RSI is still oversold on a weekly. I would say it is not too late to buy. Full disclosure : I am long Square since Jun 2020. I bought more shares yesterday. As always, trade wisely and good luck! ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclaimer!!! This is not financial advise.
NYSE:SQLong
by AyBe_Invest
1
Spotify exploding back higher. My expectations.Hi everyone, Let's take a look at current price action of NYSE:SPOT . The stock is up 12% on the day with the highest volume in a while. Price is currently at 193 . The zone of 190-214 is a no man's land. Price has cut through this zone in the past, both on the way up and down. That's due to thin volume profile structure. We take 196 , we go higher fast, up to next solid supply zone of 215-220 . Then I expect a consolidation for a while between 220 and 244 . Ultimately price should gravitate towards the POC of the last 2 years at 266 . Beware of the earnings call in 2 days! Today might be one of those pre-earnings pumps. As always, trade wisely and good luck! ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclaimer!!! This is not financial advise.
NYSE:SPOTLong
by AyBe_Invest
SPX chart update. Are we at the bottom yet?Hi everyone, Wild ride on the markets continues. VIX has stayed around 30 the past couple of days and moves in both directons were extremely aggressive. We have stayed in the negative gamma zone for the past 6 days and it is not unwinding just yet. That means there are even more extreme moves ahead of us. Untill we see a decent rally and VIX crush to 20s , options will remain to be very expensive. As for the levels: 4232 - has been visited with a swift bounce afterwards. 4278-4319 - area is tact and continues to be a good support. 4373-4390 - ignored on the daily timeframe due to magnitude of the moves. 4400 - pure psychological level with tons of volume. 4437 - failed to hold, will be a resistence level. 4496-4529 - next big target once 4437 is taken. Daily RSI is still in the negative zone, which means we have yet to see a strong daily close. RSI usually does not stay in the negative for too long. Please let me know what you think of our current market climate. As always, trade wisely and good luck! ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclaimer!!! This is not financial advise.
SP:SPX
by AyBe_Invest
2
Consumer discretionary stocks are doing fine. McDonald's exampleHi everyone, As millions of retail crypto and options speculators lose their savings, McDonalds Corporation is rubbing its hands with a hideos grin. "Ah, yes, millions of fresh employees, just what I need" . In all seriousness, consumer discretionary sector as a whole was obviously contracting with the broad market. However, not quite at the same pace. NYSE:MCD stock has seen a maximmum drawdown of 8.7%, whereas S&P dropped 12% from the top. Though if you look for a safehaven amidst the increased volatility, it is much safer to buy consumer defensive names, such as Campbell Soup ( NYSE:CPB ), Kroger NYSE:KR , Procter&Gamble ( PG ), etc. All these names performed really well this month compared to the general market. McDonald's is a cyclical consumer stock, which means it will outperform the market during the economic expansion period. And when is this going to happen? My opinion is the following: 1. Market is in turmoil, so the Fed is not going to raise rates. 2. Inflation will slow down. Inflation is connected to the supply chain issues, not to the Fed printing money (because in reality they did not print anything, but that's another topic for discussion). 3. All Covid measures are going to be cancelled this year, as the global context on taming this virus started to shift. The above reasons lead to a major economic expansion and another consumer discretionary stocks boom later this year. McDonalds happens to be one of them. Oh, yeah, also check my levels on the chart. As always, trade wisely and good luck! ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclaimer!!! This is not financial advise.
NYSE:MCDLong
by AyBe_Invest
3
Nvidia stock is falling hard. What's the turnaround point?Hi everyone, This time we are analyzing yet another beat-down tech stock NASDAQ:NVDA . Unlike most other tech stocks, Nvidia is a giant. But even giants fall. The analysis: We can see exactly the same market structure I reviewed in my Cloudflare idea: When Nvidia stock went parabolicly up in October-November 2021, it created poor thin volume profile. These thin areas not only tend to be revisited, but they also provide no support , when the stock is falling. Therefore, we fall to the next high volume zone, which is 220-226 . Now we are at 233 and the structure is almost repaired. 230 is the next support zone. However, it did not see that much volume in the past. Therefore, I expect the price to return to 220s and catch a bid there. Please let me know what you think of Nvidia stock currently. As always, trade wisely and good luck! ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclaimer!!! This is not financial advise
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by AyBe_Invest
4
Unity stock is on sale...time to Unite and buy!Hi everyone, Wow, what a start of the year! Stock market is beaten up badly. But you know what that means for an intelligent investor. Many great opportUNITYies to buy favorite stocks at discounts. Today we are revising my NYSE:U stock analysis. The stock is currently down more than 50% from the Nov tops (big ooph). We have just entered the highest volume zone, established last year. And we are rapidly approaching the Golden buy zone. All indicators point at a magical number of 100 . Just look at the chart! All stars allign perfectly at a price zone of 100 . POC, HVN, 2 long-term support lines, all point to 100 . I bet algos know about that zone too. So there are LOTS of resting buy orders. Therefore, I will add massively to my NYSE:U holdings at the next open. Let me know if you like this stock. As always, trade wisely and good luck! ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclaimer!!! This is not financial advise
NYSE:ULong
by AyBe_Invest
Is Qualcomm a durable tech stock?Hi everyone, Today we will talk about NASDAQ:QCOM , a semicunductor manufacturing company. As we saw almost all tech stocks selling off from late November through to 2022, NASDAQ:QCOM managed to stay up there quite nicely. The question to ask now: Is it lagging? Will [ symbol="NASDAQ:QCOM"]NASDAQ:QCOM follow broad tech market and proceed to a major correction? Or will it continue grinding higher? Inasmuch as semdiconductor industry is carrying world's supply chain on its shoulders, I still think we could see a correction in the stock. We've got a looming danger of Fed's interest rate hike somewhere in March-June this year. I cannot believe any risk asset such as tech stock would stand still when it happens. Putting macro stuff aside for a moment, we can see a similar pattern in the past of the stock price, where ATHs were reached, touching a rising trend resistence, which led to a rapid 26% correction and 260 days consolidation in the lower range. I strongly believe that the conditions are ripe for the same scenario to repeat. I will buy the stock after new consolidation pattern is established, preferrably near 150 level. Please let me know if you found my macro rant useful and if you would like to see similar content in the future. Trade wisely and good luck! ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclaimer!!! This is not financial advise
NASDAQ:QCOMShort
by AyBe_Invest
2
Nike analysis using volume profile. Where are we heading?Hi everyone, Nike stock tends to move agressively after earnings, which happened again on December 21. Let us take a look at the current price action. The stock made ATH early November and proceeded to sell off with the broad market in December. At the day of earnings stock reached 155 level, which is just outside the Value zone . After the market close earnings report was satisfactory, so the next market session brought the stock back to POC with a 6% dayily gain. Now the way is up . 177-179 level should be retested soon. Let me know what you think of this stock. Trade wisely and good luck! ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclaimer!!! This is not financial advise
NYSE:NKELong
by AyBe_Invest
Toyota stock analysis. All time highs soon?Hi everyone, Today we are taking a look at NYSE:TM Toyota stock. This issue has been in the game for a while and it's not one of your parabolic stocks. NYSE:TM stock tends to move aggressively in the short term, followed by a longer low volatility period afterwards. This stock takes a lot of time to make new ATHs. Recent action. Stock price has been rejected by a 20-year-old trend resistence 5 times already. Persistence of the price action looks good for the stock. However , based on previous stock fluctuations from the highs, I would not expect price to break the resistence just yet. Future action. The stock is famous for consolidating in the same range for many years. Even in a bull market Toyota stock moved sideways (2013-2018). Therefore, being at the top of the trend channel, we might see a proper downward flush. We could see 145 in the next 6 months. Even if we break the 20-year resistence ( 190 level) and hold there, I cannot see this stock going parabolic to the moon. I would recommend to be conservative on this one. Trade wisely and good luck! ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclaimer!!! This is not financial advise.
NYSE:TMShort
by AyBe_Invest
Comcast analysis. Another great buy for infra development.Hi everyone, Today we will take a look at NASDAQ:CMCSA stock. This company will benefit from the infrastructure bill signed in November. I have covered this in my YouTube video. I would expect company's earnings to reflect the benefits later in 2022. Where are we at now? Stock is currently trading at November 2020 level. It has gone down 25% since its top in August, which is quite a lot for such a conservative stock. What happened? Stock price met a worthy demand at 46 level and bounced nicely. I consider the area of 48.6 - 48.6 to represent great demand zone; thus, a good accumulation area. What's next? With this play expect a half-year to full year hold with additions on key levels. I would not trade this stock for a short-term gain. Please let me know your thoughts on this. Trade wisely and good luck! ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclaimer!!! This is not financial advise.
NASDAQ:CMCSALong
by AyBe_Invest
AMD analysis updated after 3 months. How has it played out? Hi everyone, I started investing in NASDAQ:AMD last year. Have done multiple chart and fundamental analyses since. Let's see how the stock has been performing relative to my prediction. Last post on NASDAQ:AMD was shared on September 21st . Price was at 100 at that time. I was adding to my position aggressively at that pullback. Then we went through the 122 level in October and even touched 162 a couple of times in November. As we are currently in the midst of stock market uncertainty, the price has been consolidating inside the blue box between 134 and 162 . Watch 134 closely. If it breaks, c ya at 122 . Congrats to everyone who bought inside the yellow boxes and held. I still think the company is great and I have not sold my position. Trade wisely and good luck! ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclaimer!!! This is not financial advise.
NASDAQ:AMD
by AyBe_Invest
Sea Limited is plunging. Time to buy yet?Hi everyone, We are currently in a midst of a moderate correction. I personally think it is almost over, based on DIX/GEX printing, the duration of elevated VIX, etc. These kind of periods are great for your previous analysis review. So let's do just that. NYSE:SE has been plummeting since November 16 and has lost over 30% already. It broke the rising trend and is far from it now. However , my demand levels from the previous analysis showed great price interaction. We saw some proper action at 308, 283 and 253 levels. Every level lower is a signal for an increased size accumulation. Next level on the way is 228 and I am looking forward to buying more if we get there. Hope you are coping with this turmoil alright. As always, trade wisely and good luck! ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclaimer!!! This is not financial advise
NYSE:SELong
by AyBe_Invest
5
IT IS TIME for reversal! $ROKU stock analysis.Hi everyone, Today we are tackling NASDAQ:ROKU stock price downfall. Why has it been falling so hard for the past couple of weeks? In fact, Roku stock has been losing in price every month since July. And losing a lot. It is now trading at 50% below July's highs. That's insane. Roku was a major COVID theme play, as everyone expected the stock to benefit from lockdowns. Indeed, it had grew massively and was overpriced in July-August. Is it a hopeless stock now? As practically all COVID-benefitting stocks in the past month, NASDAQ:ROKU stock was losing in price. After Q3 earnings report it dropped another 15% in a week. Although the report was not terrible. My verdict : the stock is now suffering for its massive overvaluation by the public. The Analysis. From a technical standpoint, it is almost time for a huge reversal. Looking at the last year's Volume Profile, we can see that 311-362 price zone saw the majority of volume traded with a POC around 317 . Now the price is far outside the Value Zone and approaching a support line. Price surpassed important 272 level. I expect the stock to reach 200 zone in a near future for a buy. Although, it is a conservative lower risk play. Stock already poses a pretty tempting buy opportunity. In the long run, I expect the price to test orange resistence line above. AND if we break it, honorable return to high-volume zone of 310 and above is due. As always, trade wisely and good luck! ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclaimer!!! This is not financial advise
NASDAQ:ROKULong
by AyBe_Invest
UBER stock desperately needs to breakout from the box!Hi everyone, Today we are taking a look at NYSE:UBER price movement. We are using boxes with levels and fixed term volume profile. What has been happening? NYSE:UBER stock is pretty volatile asset in general (leaving out all meme stocks obviously). During last 7 months it has been moving in 37-56 price range with POC at 46-47 level. Last 2 months, however, the price spent in a consolidation box in the 42-48 zone. Volume profile for this period is not distributed uniformly, with value zone from 44,5 to 47,3 and POC at 45,5 . Where are we now? As of 17th Nov close, we are at the bottom line of the value zone at 44,4 . Due to the fact that stock price did not close significantly outside the value zone, a reversal to 45,5 POC level is expected. Moreover, longer-term POC of 46,9 is likely to be revisited. What to expect? I want to see profile structure repair at the value zone. That would signal of healthy price development. Second biggest volume node is at 47 , so I expect POC to migrate there if we stay in the value zone. Looking even further down the road, break of 48,7 box level takes us to 51,8 . As always, trade wisely and good luck! ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclaimer!!! This is not financial advise
NYSE:UBERLong
by AyBe_Invest
2
Disney fell on earnings. Is it a bargain stock now?Hi everyone, [ symbol="NYSE:DIS"]NYSE:DIS fell 7% last Thursday after the Q3 earnings report. Is it cheap enough to buy now? Let's find out. Earnings disappointed investors with reported revenue being off for 1.4% from the estimates (bullsh*t analysis). Consequently, price bounced from 158 level support, but it came back down and is threatening this trend line now. Just reminding you that pre-pandemic price level was around 150 . Is the company doing worse now then before the virus? Well, yes. It does. Q4 2019 revenue, just before the virus outbirst, was reported at 20 billion. Now, almost 2 years into recovery, Q3 yields 18.5 billion. Trading off pure fundamentals, I would not invest in this company. Trading purely off technical indicators, however, I would not be surprised to see the price consolidate in the projected box around the trend line support. If it accumulates enough power at the trend line with low volume, it will burst out higher again. I personally classify this stock as a risky one. Trade it at your own risk. As always, trade wisely and good luck! ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclaimer!!! This is not financial advise
NYSE:DIS
by AyBe_Invest
ETSY pump on Q3 earnings. My analysis with boxes.Hi everyone, Let us take a look at recent NASDAQ:ETSY price development. Huge leap from 234-239 zone to new highs at 283 . Hard reject to 240 zone. Climb back to 270 . Taking a look at last 3 weeks volume profile, it is not uniformly distributed. POC is at 239 . Decent size volume occured in 270-275 zone, BUT mainly on the ask side. What usually happens next in this situation : Stock price either slices through the ceiling and squeezes to the absurd highs (like Tesla and Cloudflare) OR It diddles in the thin zone of the profile, repairing the structure, before the next big move. Here it's 253-272 zone. Please like if this helped and comment your ideas. Trade wisely and good luck! ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclaimer!!! This is not financial advise
NASDAQ:ETSY
by AyBe_Invest