BP Slides on Profit Warning due to Impairments & Refinin IssuesBP plc (BP) investors are jittery after the company's stock price dropped 3% on news of potential asset impairments and weaker-than-expected refining margins. This announcement follows similar cautions from Exxon Mobil, pointing to industry-wide issues within the energy sector.
BP expects to incur significant financial charges ranging from $1 billion to $2 billion in the second quarter, due in part to a strategic review of its Gelsenkirchen refinery in Germany. This highlights BP's reassessment of assets amid fluctuating market conditions. Additionally, the company anticipates a hit of $500 million to $700 million due to lower refining margins, primarily caused by weaker middle distillate margins and narrower North American heavy crude oil differentials. These factors are expected to dampen BP's refining and trading segment, a historically strong contributor to profitability.
The broader market reacted negatively to BP's news, with its shares underperforming the S&P 500 which saw a modest gain. However, it's important to note that BP's shares had previously gained over the past month, outpacing both the energy sector and the broader market.
Looking ahead, BP's upstream production is expected to remain flat compared to the previous quarter, with oil production holding steady and gas and low-carbon energy output experiencing a slight decline. This aligns with the company's earlier guidance for the full year. BP's announcement echoes similar concerns raised by Exxon Mobil, suggesting that major energy companies are grappling with volatile market conditions and operational hurdles.
Investors will be closely monitoring BP's upcoming earnings report scheduled for July 30th, 2024. Analysts currently project BP to deliver earnings growth, but the company's cautious outlook for the near term raises questions. BP's valuation metrics suggest a balanced position relative to its earnings growth prospects.
In conclusion, BP's recent announcement underscores the challenges facing the energy sector, particularly regarding asset impairments and refining margins. The company's strategic reassessment of assets, coupled with market dynamics, will significantly impact its financial performance in the coming quarters. BP's ability to adapt and optimize operations will be crucial for maintaining investor confidence and achieving long-term growth.
BP
OIl setting up for a bounce here, trade or continuation?We've been out of the #Oil trade for some time now.
It since went about 10% higher, no big deal.
Daily analysis:
Broke its recent uptrend.
RSI oversold - Usually gets a bounce at these levels.
It has been trading in between mid 60's & Low 90's.
Intraday looks like it is setting up for a bounce.
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Weekly Analysis:
You'd figure with tension rising that #OIL would be at a 100, at least.
Daily it broke the trend but it's best to wait until Friday to see if it's going back to the lower part of the trend or bouncing.
Historically, RSI doesn't hang around the 50 area much, shown by the yellow arrow.
BP Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of BP p.l.c. prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 38.50usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-5-17,
for a premium of approximately $1.05.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
BP Shares Soar Amidst Plans to Boost Shareholder ReturnsBP Corp ( NYSE:BP ), the British oil giant, witnessed a significant surge in its stock prices, jumping by more than 5%, following its announcement to enhance shareholder returns. Despite experiencing a notable decline in its annual profit, the company’s strategic moves to accelerate share buybacks and increase dividends have invigorated investor confidence.
Accelerated Share Repurchases and Dividend Increases
NYSE:BP ’s proactive approach towards enhancing shareholder value includes a rapid pace of share repurchases, with plans to execute a $1.75 billion buyback before reporting first-quarter results. Additionally, the company has committed to a substantial $3.5 billion share buyback for the first half of the year. Moreover, BP announced a 10% increase in dividend per ordinary share for the final quarter of 2023, reflecting its dedication to rewarding investors.
Financial Performance Analysis
Despite a steep fall in its underlying replacement cost profit, dropping from a record $27.7 billion to $13.8 billion for 2023, NYSE:BP managed to surpass analyst expectations for fourth-quarter net profit, demonstrating resilience amidst challenging market conditions. The company’s robust operational performance in gas trading offset the impact of significantly lower industry refining margins.
Market Response and Analyst Insights
The market responded positively to NYSE:BP ’s commitment to shareholder returns, with shares ending Tuesday’s session 5.5% higher. Analysts at RBC Capital Markets viewed NYSE:BP ’s extended commitment to share buybacks through 2025 as a favorable surprise, indicating confidence in future performance. The clarity provided by BP regarding its shareholder return plans has been particularly well-received by oil investors.
Leadership and Strategic Challenges
NYSE:BP ’s strategic decisions come amidst pressure from activist investors, urging the company to prioritize oil and gas investments over clean energy initiatives. The recent appointment of Murray Auchincloss as permanent CEO follows a period of leadership transition, raising questions about the company's direction under new management.
Climate Change Agenda
NYSE:BP ’s stance on climate change has evolved, with the firm initially pledging ambitious emissions reduction targets. However, subsequent adjustments to its climate plans have stirred debate, reflecting the delicate balance between sustainability goals and meeting global energy demand.
Conclusion
NYSE:BP ’s proactive measures to boost shareholder returns amid a challenging economic landscape demonstrate its commitment to delivering value to investors. While facing pressure from activist investors and navigating leadership changes, the company remains focused on its strategy of delivering sustainable long-term value while balancing environmental responsibilities with meeting energy demand. As NYSE:BP charts its course in the evolving energy landscape, its ability to adapt and innovate will be critical in shaping its future trajectory.
BP p.l.c. Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of BP p.l.c. prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 36usd strike price in the money Puts with
an expiration date of 2024-7-19,
for a premium of approximately $3.00.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Energy Stocks: Macro Fib SchematicsThis idea beholds 6 of the largest Energy companies in the world.
(Shell, Chevron, Exxon, BP, Duke, and OXY Petroleum.)
These macro schematics have been crafted through meticulous Fibonacci techniques.
I've laid every one on a 3 month timeframe starting at 1988. History buffs will understand the time reference to the rough "start" of Middle Eastern conflicts from the West and the rise of the price of "fossil fuels".
I'm not begging anyone to understand this genius mastery of Fib tools. You either see it or you don't.
I've linked my ENERGY COMMODITIES idea below for more analysis.
BP : WOLFE waves detectedBP (Weekly): Bullish WOLFE wave
TP1 has already been reached
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BP (Daily): Bearish WOLFE Wave!
Watch the EMA.50 and EMA.200 which are potential targets in the short and medium term!
As well as the levels / Fibonacci / Bollinger: ICHIMOKU
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Happy trading everyone, be careful!!
Black Gold or Green Future: The Big Oil ParadoxThis investment strategy scrutinizes the complex landscape of major oil corporations like Exxon, Chevron, Shell, and BP , situated at the crossroads between their traditional petroleum-based profits ("black gold") and the imperative to transition towards sustainable energy sources (the "green future").
The approach is uniquely neutral, recognizing both the potential upside and downside of these energy giants, and is armed with targets for either trajectory. One must take into account:
1. Nuclear and Fission Energy Impact: The rise of nuclear and fission energy poses another threat to these corporations. As a clean, efficient, and increasingly cost-competitive source of power, nuclear energy is growing in popularity. Once nuclear energy starts to gain more traction and acceptance, it will further undermine the demand for oil, exacerbating the challenges for these energy giants.
2. Regulatory & Environmental Risks: Anticipating potential regulatory changes aimed at reducing carbon emissions and promoting sustainable energy can help set downside targets. At the same time, successful mitigation of environmental risks might offer upside prospects.
3. Drop in Oil: A dramatic oil price drop would significantly reduce these companies' revenue and profitability. Oil price and the financial health of these companies are closely linked, given their heavy reliance on oil sales.
1. Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM): $250 billion
2. Royal Dutch Shell PLC (RDS.A): $150 billion
3. Chevron Corporation (CVX): $200 billion
4. BP PLC (BP): $85 billion
TOTAL= 700 Billion
The BP chart after the earning reportToday, the price of BP shares experienced a significant decline after the release of their Q1 earnings report, despite the fact that they made 4 billion during this time period. This phenomenon can be explained as a case of "buying the rumour and selling the fact." To better understand the market's reaction, we look at the BP chart to identify the key support levels.
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BP at overbought extremes.BP. (BP.) - 30d expiry - We look to Sell a break of 454.8 (stop at 467.4)
Daily signals for sentiment are at overbought extremes.
A higher correction is expected.
A break of the recent low at 455 should result in a further move lower.
The bias is to break to the downside.
Short term momentum is bearish.
Current prices have reacted from a low of 455, however, we expect further losses to follow.
Our profit targets will be 423.3 and 416.3
Resistance: 470 / 475 / 483
Support: 455 / 445 / 440
Disclaimer – Saxo Bank Group.
Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like any and all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site (including those from Signal Centre) are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Such technical analysis are believed to be obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not warrant their respective completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of any and all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Please also be reminded that if despite the above, any of the said technical analysis (or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/through this site) is found to be advisory or a recommendation; and not merely informational in nature, the same is in any event provided with the intention of being for general circulation and availability only. As such it is not intended to and does not form part of any offer or recommendation directed at you specifically, or have any regard to the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of yourself or any other specific person. Before committing to a trade or investment therefore, please seek advice from a financial or other professional adviser regarding the suitability of the product for you and (where available) read the relevant product offer/description documents, including the risk disclosures. If you do not wish to seek such financial advice, please still exercise your mind and consider carefully whether the product is suitable for you because you alone remain responsible for your trading – both gains and losses.
BP longterm longCan build a long term meaningful BP position from here until 2038. They'll help lead the way into the energy switch.
Last quarter prices of oil were still high no matter what trend it was going so this quarter will be good profits again.
My bet is that this diamond breaks out higher due to the overall low market cap of energy companies with regard to their global economic value.
I used to work for a large subsea oil company and they were pretty sure 2038 is the year to watch.
One last push from BP?BP. (BP.) - 30D expiry - We look to Sell at 463.80 (stop at 475.20)
We are trading at overbought extremes.
Broken out of the triangle formation to the downside.
We look for a temporary move higher.
Daily pivot is at 469.60.
Preferred trade is to sell into rallies.
Risk/Reward would be poor to call a sell from current levels.
Our profit targets will be 433.15 and 424.15
Resistance: 450.00 / 460.00 / 470.00
Support: 440.00 / 430.00 / 420.00
Disclaimer – Saxo Bank Group. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like any and all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site (including those from Signal Centre) are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Such technical analysis are believed to be obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not warrant their respective completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of any and all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Please also be reminded that if despite the above, any of the said technical analysis (or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/through this site) is found to be advisory or a recommendation; and not merely informational in nature, the same is in any event provided with the intention of being for general circulation and availability only. As such it is not intended to and does not form part of any offer or recommendation directed at you specifically, or have any regard to the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of yourself or any other specific person. Before committing to a trade or investment therefore, please seek advice from a financial or other professional adviser regarding the suitability of the product for you and (where available) read the relevant product offer/description documents, including the risk disclosures. If you do not wish to seek such financial advice, please still exercise your mind and consider carefully whether the product is suitable for you because you alone remain responsible for your trading – both gains and losses
This joy will not last long..!Althogh NASDAQ100 is up more than 5% this week, it is still down 23% YTD..! and 25% down from its all-time high..!
But detecting these symmetrical mirror view move helped me and my follower to capitalize on them nicely..!
Some examples: (I did not publish any of these posts publicly)
QQQ: Sep 5th,
TSLA: Sep 6th
SOXL: Sep 6th
NVDA: Sep 7th
#BABA: Sep 7th
DOCU: Sep 8th
CRM: Sep 8th
BP: Sep 8th
They moved between 3-16% in 4 days or less! Recommended Call Option for DOCU moved more than 108% in less than 24 hrs!
Best,
BP: Oil on a slippery slope?BP. (BP.) - Short Term - We look to Sell at 382.20 (stop at 404.10)
A bearish Head and Shoulders is forming. An overnight negative theme in Equities has led to a lower open this morning. A break of 365.30 is needed to confirm follow through negative momentum. Further downside is expected although we prefer to set shorts at our bespoke resistance levels at 382.20, resulting in improved risk/reward. Expect trading to remain mixed and volatile.
Our profit targets will be 289.00 and 263.30
Resistance: 408.30 / 419.35 / 456.00
Support: 365.30 / 338.05 / 323.70
Disclaimer – Saxo Bank Group. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis, like any and all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site (including those from Signal Centre) are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Such technical analysis are believed to be obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not warrant their respective completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the technical analysis, as would also your use of any and all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Please also be reminded that if despite the above, any of the said technical analysis (or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/through this site) is found to be advisory or a recommendation; and not merely informational in nature, the same is in any event provided with the intention of being for general circulation and availability only. As such it is not intended to and does not form part of any offer or recommendation directed at you specifically, or have any regard to the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of yourself or any other specific person. Before committing to a trade or investment therefore, please seek advice from a financial or other professional adviser regarding the suitability of the product for you and (where available) read the relevant product offer/description documents, including the risk disclosures. If you do not wish to seek such financial advice, please still exercise your mind and consider carefully whether the product is suitable for you because you alone remain responsible for your trading – both gains and losses.
BP - Make or break for the UK Oil giantBP. (BP.)
Short Term
We look to Buy at 390.00 (stop at 373.30)
The medium term bias remains bullish. The trend of higher lows is located at 377.50. Dips continue to attract buyers. Our overall sentiment remains bullish looking for higher levels.
Our profit targets will be 455.50 and 480.00
Resistance: 396.00 / 419.35 / 456.00
Support: 377.50 / 364.10 / 338.05
Disclaimer – Saxo Bank Group. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis, like any and all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site (including those from Signal Centre) are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Such technical analysis are believed to be obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not warrant their respective completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the technical analysis, as would also your use of any and all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Please also be reminded that if despite the above, any of the said technical analysis (or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/through this site) is found to be advisory or a recommendation; and not merely informational in nature, the same is in any event provided with the intention of being for general circulation and availability only. As such it is not intended to and does not form part of any offer or recommendation directed at you specifically, or have any regard to the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of yourself or any other specific person. Before committing to a trade or investment therefore, please seek advice from a financial or other professional adviser regarding the suitability of the product for you and (where available) read the relevant product offer/description documents, including the risk disclosures. If you do not wish to seek such financial advice, please still exercise your mind and consider carefully whether the product is suitable for you because you alone remain responsible for your trading – both gains and losses.