BP
BP: The recovery is near...BP approves final investment decision on $8B Indonesian LNG project
7% dividend
Shorting BP pre-earningsBP has been slowly moving up with the price of oil since April. This has not yet destroyed the long term bearish momentum on the Monthly timeframe where the downward trend is still intact. Price has now gotten to the top of the Weekly cloud to contain the overall long term bearish trend. At this point it's a "line in the sand" to determine long term sentiment going into this quarter. I'm taking a pre-earnings play with October 33 Puts. I'm targeting the next major support at 31.55 by before September to get out before theta decay kicks in.
HIGH VOL: KEEP WATCHING!!!Look guys, this is the same Fib retracement that has HELD since the Jan-Feb selloff. Do not take my word for it. Look at my previous predictions, load the new data, and see how much money was made.
MPC has had a history of bucking the market. When SPX was down 2%, this was down 7%. When SPX was up 3%, this was up over 8.5%. This is a lower liquidity, higher volatility play.
I am NEUTRAL on MPC. To be honest, I've put no money into for a long time. Money could have been made straddling the 2nd fib level, but the reaction to Brexit (not the market reaction to Brexit itself) has caused everybody to look at everything closer, and rightly so.)
Here's what we know: MPC is range-bound in the 2nd fib level. We also know it's good for a 8% pop or drop in a one session. Is that within your risk tolerance?? It's not within mine.
Conclusion: IF YOU DO NOT HAVE TO TRADE, DO NOT TRADE. I honestly would not look at this stock until after earnings (July 28th). That will give the market plenty of time to digest new capital inflows from stock buy-backs, and allow for a reaction that may be based on technicals vs. fundamentals.
There is money to be made, but patience is a virtue. If you see something I don't?....Please share! I need to eat too...
EUR/GBP rejected at highs, good to sell rallies around 0.72 Renewed offered tone around the single currency keeps EUR/GBP on a weaker footing at the beginning of the week. The pair was rejected at day's highs by 0.7205
Rally in the cross post ECB was capped below the daily cloud supporting a resumption of the downtrend. Breaks below 0.7175 (38.2 % Fibo of Oct 13 to Nov 17 fall) could take the pair lower to 0.7100 levels
Further support on the downside is thin until the 10/21 DMAs at 0.7075/0.7064, break below could open up lower levels again. Immediate resistance is seen at 0.7236 (50 % Fibo of Oct 13 to Nov 17 fall)
Markets see scope for further ECB easing in March and BoE rate hike likely in 2016. Contrasting ECB/BoE monetary policy outlooks may keep cross largely contained below 0.7250 (Oct 28 high)
Later in the day, BOE Governor Carney’s testimony will be closely monitored for fresh cues on the BOE interest rates outlook, while the Sentix index will be the main highlight in Euroland
Recommendation: Good to sell rallies around 0.72 levels, SL: 0.7250, TP: 0.7110
BP PLC - BP - Daily - Key Hidden Levels are Essential in BP!Look at the remarkable action around the KEY HIDDEN LEVELS in BP over the past 10 months - There have been multiple tests of the key support lines that provided ideal and low risk entries on pull-backs.
Subscribe to "Key Hidden Levels" in the "Marketplace Add-Ons" section of "Indicators" .
I'm looking to get long against support down here - I will post my entries here on Tradingview.
Also, if you are short CVX against purchases in BP, you can create a "market neutral - pairs trade". See the link to CVX below.
Tim
