Most likely scenario for SPY weeklySPY has been trending higher since late last year, making higher highs and higher lows.
The bears that sold below last two weeks of July were able to make a scalp signaling the beginning of the two sided trading that will likely follow. This week (Sep 18th - 22nd) marks the first close below the exponential moving average in almost 30 bars. Bears are hoping next week there will be strong follow through selling flipping the market to Always in Short and that market will test the May and March swing lows.
The bulls are looking to buy pullbacks since market is in broad bull channel and are expecting the test of July High or Highest Close after which market will likely not go much further up and continue sideways and form a trading range until there is a breakout that will reset the Market Cycle.
At this point the market is more likely to test the High of Sept 22nd (444.97) before it goes a measured move (Weekly High to Weekly Low) below at 415.01.
