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THE 4 POWERS OF DIVERGENCE AND 4 NASDAQ TRADESNew home sales in June fell to the lowest level since April 2020, reflecting declining builder sentiment as construction bottlenecks continue to slow new home building and raise housing costs. Sales of newly built, single-family homes in June fell 8.1% to a 590,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate from a sharply downwardly revised reading in May, according to newly released data by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau. New home sales are down 13.4% in 2022 on a year-to-date basis. Builders saw sales decline significantly as buyers were priced out of the market on higher interest rates and ongoing home building and development costs, including building materials, This is just the second time that new home sales have fallen below a 600,000 annual pace since Oct. 2018, and this latest report also mirrors a sharp decline in builder confidence as noted in our latest survey. Buyers are balking due to deteriorating affordability conditions and growing sticker shock, A new home sale occurs when a sales contract is signed or a deposit is accepted. The home can be in any stage of construction: not yet started, under construction or completed. In addition to adjusting for seasonal effects, the June reading of 590,000 units is the number of homes that would sell if this pace continued for the next 12 months. New single-family home inventory remained elevated at a 9.3 months’ supply, up 60.3% over last year, with 457,000 available for sale. However, only 39,000 of the new home inventory is completed and ready to occupy. The remaining have not started construction or are currently under construction. The median sales price dipped to $402,400 in June, down 9.5% compared to May, but is up 7.4% compared to a year ago. Regionally, on a year-to-date basis, new home sales fell in all four regions, down 12.1% in the Northeast, 24.8% in the Midwest, 12.6% in the South and 9.6% in the West. Commentary of my 4 Nadaq Trades: 2 Shorts s Longs, all winners, Trade No. 3 wa the biggest winner. Setup: RSI50-580-290-5-13 Median 5 Risk Exposure 5% Profit Target 35 Buy,if Cross over Sell if cross below Trend Continuation Short RSI falls below 20 degree Trend Continuation long: Rsi above 35 Degree. Good Luck Traders
OANDA:NAS100USDLong
by DaveBrascoFX
3
Brent crude oil ATTACKING 106 USD LONGMorgan Stanley Jumps On The $100 Oil Bandwagon Morgan Stanley expects oil prices to hit $100 per barrel in the second half of the year, becoming the latest major Wall Street bank to expect triple-digit oil prices by the end of 2022. The oil market is headed to a “triple deficit” of low inventories, low spare production capacity, and low investment, Morgan Stanley said in a note carried by Reuters. The bank now expects oil at $100 in the third and fourth quarters of this year, lifting its previous Q3 and Q4 forecasts from $90 and $87.50 a barrel, respectively. “The key oil products markets (gasoline, jet fuel, and gasoil/diesel) all show strong crack spreads, steep backwardation, and inventories that have fallen to low levels. None of this signals weakness,” Morgan Stanley analysts wrote in the note. The bank is the latest investment institution to predict that oil is headed to triple-digit territory as soon as this year, amid resilient demand, falling inventories, and declining spare capacity at OPEC+ as the group ramps up production. Triple-digit oil “is in the works” for the second quarter this year, Francisco Blanch, head of global commodities at Bank of America, told Bloomberg last week. Demand is recovering meaningfully, while OPEC+ supply will start leveling off within the next two months, Blanch said, noting that it will be only Saudi Arabia and the UAE that can produce incremental barrels to add to the market. Related: How Realistic Are Libya’s 2022 Oil Production Goals? Oil prices could hit $100 this year and rise to $105 per barrel in 2023, on the back of a “surprisingly large deficit” due to the milder and potentially briefer impact of Omicron on oil demand, Goldman Sachs said this week. Due to gas-to-oil substitution, supply disappointments, and stronger-than-expected demand in Q4 2021, OECD inventories are set to dip by the summer to their lowest levels since 2000, Goldman’s analysts note. Moreover, OPEC+ spare capacity is also set to decline to historically low levels of around 1.2 million bpd. “At $85/ bbl , the market would remain at such critical levels, insufficient buffers relative to demand and supply volatilities, through 2023,” Goldman -Sachs said in a note. JP Morgan, for its part, expects the falling spare capacity at OPEC+ to increase the risk premium in prices, and sees oil hitting $125 a barrel this year and $150 a barrel next year.
OANDA:BCOUSDLong
by DaveBrascoFX
1
What are the Best Markets for Trend Following Traders?In one word: ALL. “Price makes news, not the other way around. A market is going to go where a market is going to go.” We all see the same charts, but at the end of the year only 5-10% will increase their capital. Year by year. I tried Turtle Trading System I and II, but it failed over 60% of time. It did not recognize the fake breakouts. So after 20 years of Trading I started to combine it with some other oldschool forgotten indicators: Correlations, 200 SMA and Momentum. POW! It worked better. And my capital curve showed thenafter sharp swings. Was the system wrong? Noway. Eachtime I got more greedy. I made more losses. The System worked well. So the problem was my EGO and Emotions. Just follow your plan. IF NEXT TIME YOU HAE DOUBTS,then ask yourself:,, Why do I recommand this market to buy ,cut my System showing it. But I don´t do it? And after A year you look back and see that you wee right. Your system was right. But your account showing the opposite? So FOLLOW YOUR PLAN. Money Mangement is the real Profit Machine. Be patient. 90% of Trading is patience. If the market pulls back and you are still on, it doesnt mean you are wrong. But if your stop gets hit, it just mean you where wrong, but at all you did everthing well. You have alculated this situation.Therefor you put your stop and protected your account. Stops, patience,Money Mangement is your part of the work. The rest your system does. Together, you will be a winning team. In long term. I combined Turtle Trading System II Those who know they are in the game. Those who don’t know they are in the game. Those who don’t know they are in the game and have become the game. If, within a half of an hour of playing whatever game, and you don’t know who the patsy is, you’re the patsy or the game. Who are the real market patsies? Those who deny diversification. All traders need to understand what they can trade through trend following. Essentially, everything: All news are too late. THE PRICE knows already waht happend and what will happen next. All information are in the price. Already. Stocks: S&P, SSE Comp., Nikkei 225, DAX, AAPL, TSLA, FB, etc. Bonds/Interest Rates: Eurodollar, 10-Year T-Note, Bund, etc. Currencies/FX/Forex: USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD, CHF, CNY, etc. Metals: Gold, Silver, Copper, etc. Energies: Oil, Natural Gas, etc. Agriculturals: Wheat, Corn, Soybeans, etc. Softs: Coffee, Sugar, Cotton, etc. Meats: Lean Hogs, Feeder Cattle, etc. Futures Commodities ETFs LEAPS Options Mutual Funds Cryptocurrencies: BTC, ETH, etc. Trend Following™ can not promise you will earn the returns of traders, charts or examples (real or hypothetical) stated. All past performance is not necessarily an indication of future results.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by DaveBrascoFX