Bravenewcoin
Bitcoin and the question we should be asking ourselvesThis is the standard BLX chart used to track the candle patterns of Bitcoin from its early stages.
The pattern is parabolic and that has been discussed more than enough here. What I want to emphasize most with this analysis is the support provided by the Green Zone.
As soon as the price enters this Zone, Bitcoin makes a bottom, never breaks it, consolidates on the long term and slowly rises as it prepares the next Bull Market.
What we should be asking ourselves is "How long will the price stay within this zone?". Because as soon as it breaks it upwards, the Bull Market starts in emphatic fashion.
Falling Wedge, where are we going.On the Monthly chart we are having resistance on the MA 5 at 4290 and EMA 30 at 4910 and we are having support with MA 200 at 3106. To confirm this falling wedge we would have to breakdown the 200 MA barrier which can be possible. Bottom of the wedge will be at 2324$ march 19th and 1725 May 19th. If we go under the 200 MA we will be there for a while, in this case EMA 100 might be our savior which is now around 1644$. The thing that is making me think we are going down now is MA 10 is about to cross down EMA 15 and EMA 21.
BTC long time scenariosSo after this big dip it sound more easy to look from far on the Monthly Chart.
it can show use clearly that we are still in this bear Market for a long time.
Only a good catalyst would make BTC back in power mode.
First support would be a strong bounce on EMA at 4000ish.
Second Supoort 3200-3000. FOMO rebuy.
And the last one 1200-1500. Back to 2014 ATH.
Happy Tr4Ding!
Is Bitcoin still parabolic? Projections to consider.With most bear cycle models showing that Bitcoin is approaching a bottom, it is useful to go back to its original growth pattern. The parabolic curve that has delivered High after High over this decade long time span.
Based on that parabolic pattern we have identified 4 possible growth scenarios leading to the next All Time High using duration and % increase parameters of each cycle.
Scenario (A): High around 53,300. Follows the 2012/2013 Bull Cycle.
This projection suggests that the candle sequence will follow 2012/2013 bullish pattern. High to High measurement 882 days. High estimated for May 2020.
Scenario (B): High around 58,700. Follows the 2015/2017 Bull Cycle.
This projection suggests that the candle sequence will follow 2015/2017 bullish pattern. High to High measurement 1492 days. High estimated for January 2022.
Scenario (C): High around 126,300.
This projection assumes that the High to High sequence increases by +20 bars from the previous one. The June 2011 - November 2013 High to High sequence is measured at 29 bars. The November 2013 - December 2017 is measured at 49 bars. If the next High to High sequence follows this +20 bar pattern then the measurement will be at 69 bars i.e. 2100 days. High estimated for September 2023.
Scenario (D): High around 158,000.
This projection assumes that the High to High sequence increases by +68.96% from the previous one. The June 2011 - November 2013 High to High sequence is measured at 29 bars. The November 2013 - December 2017 is measured at 49 bars, +68.96% of the 29 bars of the previous sequence. If the next High to High sequence follows this +68.96% pattern then the measurement will be at 82 bars i.e. 2496 days. High estimated for October 2024.
Based on a parameter similarity score, the Scenario that appears to be most probable is (B) as its High to High and Low to High measurements are identical to the cycle it immitates.
If you seek more insight on cycle comparisons and projections, see below how we have compared the current Bear Cycle to the 2014/2015 and 2011/2012.
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Bitcoin downtrend analysis Indicators:
Fibonacci retracement with extensions (downtrend 2013 - 2015)
Volume profile fixed range
Moving average 200 MA (red line) : a weekly candle never has had a close below the 200MA
Pattern:
Descending triangle 2018 (measure rule): TP $2950
The eyes represent the most relevant levels.