South America BULLISHSouth America is on a roll, very bullish.
custom index: ARGT EWZ EWW GXG ICOL ECH EPU
Brazil
BRAZILS STRETCHED RISK PREMIUM MAKES FOR "REAL" LONG OPPORTUNITYBRAZILS RISK PREMUM IS STRETCHED
See "Summary Statistics" in doc below
www.bcb.gov.br
BRL's risk premium (currently highest across EM peers) looks stretched, given a continued pick- up in growth and reducing near-term political risk. COP's recent rally was likely driven mainly by a reversal of heavy short positioning, without a material shift in the country's economic and political outlook. Recent data releases showed that 2017 exhibited the slowest annual growth since the 2009 crisis (1.8%Y) and growth should remain sluggish in 2018, at 2.3%Y. Uncertainty about the upcoming elections poses an additional challenge for the investment outlook, given that implementing structural reforms could be key to helping to correct the fiscal deficit.
The risk to this trade is that Colombia's economic data surprise to the upside, leading to further appreciation in the currency.
Bovespa heading back to highs and beyond?#Brazil #Bovespa turning back to strength after recent pullback? Resistance at highs around 77000 then if can hold & break 81000's?! Feels like a lot of hard work to me! Support if reverses down around 69000 area?
Brazil Under Consolidation (EWZ) (NEUTRAL)Consolidation triangle forming, confirm a breakout or reversal with increased volume and by watching price trend for up to a few days, depending on how quickly the reversal or breakout takes place. EWZ is at a point of upper resistance, see previous highs several months ago.
$PBR #PBR - Posible pequeño recorte/descanso$PBR está perdiendo un poco de fuerza al alza y empieza a mostrar signos de debilidad al no poder superar los 8.78.
Antes de continuar con las subas, es posible que se tome un descanso retrocediendo hacia 2 niveles de soporte claves: 8.23 y 8.04.
Para ello, antes debemos esperar la pérdida de la zona de 8.71 para confirmar la debilidad.
Ésta situación se anula con un cierre superior a 8.78
Buy TPIS3: bullish island reversal and upward price channelHigh conviction buy on text-book bullish island reversal with significant trading volume increase and bounce off lower band of upward parallel price channel, also with significant volume. The pattern emerge as the company announced the sale of one of its assets (the Portonave port for 1,3B BRL), significantly deleveraging the balance sheet as part of an asset sale plan that, if fully materialized, will be transformational for the company. My two favorite and trusted independent research publications see more than 100% upside.
Short EWZShort EWZ on touch of long term resistance line and apparent continuation of long term bear market. However, if current correction leads to an additional wave up and breakout from the trend, the trade will be stopped and there are high chances of reversal towards long term bull market.
BRLUSD: Technical bottom spottedI think this can be the bottom of the recent pullback in the Brazilian Real. I'm long $BRL as an oil proxy here, shorting $USDBRL with a tight stop at 3.3415.
The political crisis might be averted, and the currency can soar, specially with the extreme negative sentiment currently affecting it.
Best of luck to our brazilian friends, and to anyone taking the trade.
Ivan Labrie.
GOL | Brazil
PT1: 34.50
PT2: 44.50
PT3: 54.80
In @ 16.
Add @ 24.10.
Sell Zone: 99.10
Long bias on Brazil.
IBOV - Five-waves up completed: time for retracement.Fibonacci levels are the targets.
Happy trading!
USDBRL Triangle BreakoutPossible short position on USD BRL, waiting for breakout. There are a lot of important decisions in the next weeks around social security (retirement reform) and curruption judgements.
Triangle at USD BRLWaiting for breakout, posible short position. There are a lot of decisions on brazilian congress in the next weeks around social security (retirement reform) and curruption decisions.
Need a frost to get this market moving.... doubt it will happen this year. last year we had three severe frost scare days/weekend.
IMHO this market is where it is merely because of cautious buyers ahead of the season.
I see rangebound through July and if no frost happens more downward potential.
Technically speaking, the bull market appears to be over.
BTC/BRL (Foxbit) 1yr DailySigns of a pretty consistent price channel since 2015. Price dropped below channel during 2015, but generally channel holds true.
Seems BU is dying out without genuine support from minors and clearly very little support from the economic majority, i.e. general nodes, exchanges and commercial nodes.
Expecting resistance just about or around 4k within the month of April. Mid resistance between 3560 and 3720 on the way up and lower resistance at about 3300.
The orange dotted lines are support lines based off converging fib extensions for the price build up.
This is my first idea. Just learning here. Any feedback much appreciated. If anyone wants this in Portuguese I can translate too.
Posso traduzir em portugues se alguem tiver interesse.
Bullish EWZLooking for the breakout of this triangle consolidation and a C leg for this flag formation
Bearish Fundamental for SoybeansLong-term fundamental is bearish . US has big soybeans 0.23% stocks , export is falling. Harvest in Brazil and potentially big crop in South America adds bearish sentiment. Weekly chart shows rejection of VAH, price moves down inside balance, so I'm waiting the continuation of price falling.
Bearish Fundamental for SoybeansLong-term fundamental is bearish. US has big soybeans stocks, export is falling. Harvest in Brazil and potentially big crop in South America adds bearish sentiment. Weekly chart shows rejection of VAH, price moves down inside balance, so I'm waiting the continuation of price falling.
