Long on BRLUSD Brazil RealIn this pair the price reached a support line, probably won't close under that. Buy it now and sell if close (manual stop) under it anytime. The goal is at 0,3302.
Brazil
FORECAST USDBRLOPEN POSITION: SELL 3.23
STOP: 3.26
TARGET 3.18
SECONDARY TARGET 3.14
CANCEL: IF CLOSE OVER 3.25
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ALPA4 - Possível virada de tendência (Possible Upset Trend)O papel está indicando uma virada de tendência que pode render 10% nas próximas semanas.
O alvo programado é de R$11,40 e o Stop Loss está em R$10,00.
Tomar cuidado pois o último candle ainda estava encostado no Stop, acredito que seja melhor esperar mais dois candles antes de entrar na operação.
Bom trade!
English version:
The stock is indicating a upset trend that can yield 10% in the nexts weeks.
The programmed target is R$11,40 and the Stop Loss is at R$10,00.
Be careful because the last candle was stil leaning against the Stop Liss, I believe it is better to wait two more candles before entering in the operation.
Have a good trade!
IBOV - IBOVESPA rompe LTB após 6 anos!Agora é o momento? Ainda não temos uma confirmação precisa de reversão de tendência, mas que é um belo furo na LTB, isso é! Como podem ver no gráfico, passamos por tempos nebulosos desde 2010 onde tivemos uma drástica queda nos preços das commodities e graças a um governo muito competente (PT), "e notem a minha ironia enquanto escrevo", tivemos redução e congelamento de tributos e expansão de credito para o incentivo do consumo. No entanto, como podemos notar sem muito esforço, tudo deu errado. Mas agora em 2016 surge uma nova esperança, após um longo e traumático processo de impeachment, chegamos a reta final da queda da quem gosta de ser chamada de "presidenta" Dima Rousseff. Enfim, surge uma bela oportunidade para os próximos anos, como eu disse no começo, ainda é cedo para termos uma confirmação concreta, mas para tantos como eu que já estão roendo o osso há muito tempo, um pouco de esperança já é muita coisa. Abraço do Jake!
VALE5 testando resistência a $16.00Dando continuidade a trade fechado ontem, posicionamento em VALE5 esperando correção devido a forte alta do dia anterior.
Compra: $15,78
Stop: $15.43
Alvo: $16.39
O que aconteceu com USDBRL entre 2010-2016 em 7 eventos(A) 1a Eleição de Dilma Rousseff
(B) Início do rally do DYX US Dollar Index
(C) Reeleição de Dilma Rousseff
(D) Eduardo Cunha, presidente da Câmara de Deputados, aceita pedido de impeachement da Presid. Dilma Rousseff
(E) Câmara de Deputados instaura processo de impeachment de Dilma Rousseff, com mais de 2/3 dos votos
(F) Enfraquecimento do rally do DYX
(G) Referendo brexit
É interessante comparar a evolução percentual do par dolar americano x real (USDBRL) com a evolução do DYX, índice que compara valor do USD com cesta de principais moedas do mundo. De 2010 a 2016 houve uma valorização do USD de uma forma geral, mas o impacto na moeda brasileira foi extraordinário.
Note como surge uma diferença significativa entre a evolução percentual dos índices já no segundo ano do mandato de Dilma, em 2012, quando o USDBRL cresce cerca de 10% a mais que o DYX. Essa diferença será fortemente ampliada após a releeição, chegando a um pico de mais de 100% no início de 2016.
No contraponto, os sinais de troca de governo forçam uma tendência de queda para o par USDBRL, já em Fevereiro-2016, reduzindo a diferença percentual. Somada a queda experimentada pelo DYX a partir de Maio-2016, o movimento de USDBRL ganha ainda mais vigor. Mas até quando? Esse movimento de entrada de dolares é tido pelos analistas com um dos principais drivers da tendência bullish da Bovespa (IBOV) nos últimos meses.
Comentários são muito bem vindos!
130 target areaLooking for 130 area as a target of the recent decline in coffee prices.
Overall uptrend as indicated in upsloping orange trendline hasn't been broken yet
Spreads are weak as well.
Elliott Wave Count for Brazil's IBOVO IBOV parece estar no final de uma onda C Menor, dentro de uma (4) Intermediária, que faz parte de uma onda (I) Primária.
O início da onda (5) está iminente e deve levar o IBOV até 55K. A partir dalí, devemos ficar atentos ao final da onda (5) e (I).
Essa contagem leva em consideração o humor social bastante negativo que dominou a percepção de investidores e não-investidores sobre o Brasil, especialmente no segundo semestre de 2015.
O Fundo de Janeiro de 2016 seria então o final de uma correção(baixista) de uma onda de grau Cíclico(altista). Esta correção teve seu início em Abril/2008!
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Brazilian Stock Index IBOV looks as though it is at the end of a Minor C Wave, which is part of an Intermediary (4)th wave inside a Primary Wave (I).
The start of Wave (5) is imminent and should carry the IBOV back to 55k. From then, we should look out for the completion of Waves (5) and (I).
This count takes into account the negative mood that took over investors and non-investors perception on Brazil alike, specially in the last semester of 2015.
The January 2016 Bottom would then be the end of a (bearish)correction of a long (bullish)Cyclic degree wave. This correction started back in April 2008!
SUZB5: Eyes open for next week new'sThe context:
* A large percentage of company's sales is done in USD (exportations), so high USDBRL -1.21% is good for the company.
* The BEK prices (Bleached Eucalyptus Kraft) suffered a donw trend in the last months, affecting all the players of the sector (See ETF 0.00%% WOOD), but there is a moviment of price growning in course.
* The company's 2Q/20216 results were considered "over analists expectations", with an important Private Equity bank targeting R$ 20 p/s in the next 12 months.
So, when we take this context with the market data it's possible to see bullish trend forming soon; Special attention must be given to RSI hiting 20% and the divergence between WOOD and SUZB5 -3.31% since 14/Jul.
Now, the only factor that may be blocking an bullish trend in this stock is the USDBRL -1.21% , wich reached an accumulation point this week.
My bet: If in the next monday (01/Aug) the price stock forms an nice candle, crossing R$10.3, it's time to buy; Target R$10.80, but it may change with the next market new's ( USDBRL -1.21% ).
Comments are welcome!
(@Anacarsis thank you for the help)
BTOW3 forming an upside trend after the correction?The market confirmed the previous idea's foresincs, and now it migth come the time to a new wave of price increase. The correction occurred as made by hand: less than 20% price correction, stoped by a suport line with high Volume near the bollinger limits.
Despite of the signs observed and pointed in the graph, it's still hard to say if the stock price will continue in a trend after the next days. After all, there are new's coming soon: The 2Q/2016 results are schedulled to come public in August-11.
Can TGMA3 recover it's historic price?In the last 12 months, the market value of Tegma (TGMA3) has decreased about 80% (06/01/2016 - $14.30 H; 01/27/2016 - $2.86 L). This company, which corebusiness is the transportation of new vehicles from factories to distributors, saw its revenues dwindle in face of the reduction of Brazilian consumer and employer confidence levels, the gloomy prospects for the country's interest rates, the growth of debt and default of families and the beginning of an unemployment crisis that still committs over 10% of the economically active population of the country: Not a good scenario to buy a car, I'd say.
Several months latter, thinks start to change with the prospect of success of impeachment of president Dilma Rousseff, and another bunch of events may help to a faster recover of economy in the country, which I'll resume in one consequence: The return of huge ammounts of foreign capital.
TGMA3 has done good job in surviving the worst point of the crisis. The question is: when will the Brazilian market recover the hability to stand an grown?
VALE5: A last breath before a price correctionSince 06/01/2016 VALE5 has enraged in a rally that built up more than 20% of the stock price, alligned with the results of IBOV (> +16%). This excelent result was made by a huge entrance of foreign capital in the Brazilian market, propiciated by the maintenance of low interest rates worldwide.
What we see in the graphs of VALE5 are signs of accendent confidence in the market, with four consecutive Botton-Top moviments, all of wich with price grow and tryng the mark near $13.60. This mark was finally beat up in 07/12/2016, and tried again in 07/20/2016.
My bet is that in the next few days we'll see the market trying the price of $14.35, before a price correction that will move the prices near the mark of $13.60 again.
Brazil, a safe harbor in the world marketDue to the increase in Debt/GDP of the world's biggest economic markets, the BRICS, and specially Brazil, that is impeaching its left wing corrupt president, are good options for those that want to escape from the bail ins and outs of the european market and from the chinese bubble. Obama's economic policy is also putting US in a very delicate situation.
In short, come to Brazil.
strong correction aheadCorrection at IBOV, with a estimated fall of 4.7% approximately giving a 50% retrace of previous rally.
Down timeNYSE:PBR As we can see the price exceeded the last peak ($ 8.01) and reached the top of the trend, now we have a bearish wave where the price seeks position C.
Trade Wisely!
No frost in BrazilSeems like no frost in Brazil. It was a busy weeks last week and throughout the weekend with fears a frost could hit coffee areas. None has been confirmed and worst fears did not play out.
Once all of this is digested I expect some downside opportunities as the market goes back into trading technicals rather than emotions.
Quite oversold and we saw sell signals on RSI and Stochastik a while ago.
Also, the 5 hour chart will provide with a sell signal, which has been a superb indicator of short term price action (5-10 days).
I am short via 1x2 calendar put spreads, long the 135s in Q and short the 125s in U and various other like this. As we move lower, option vega will come in and provide some nice profits.
Also, selling the Sep (U16) contract provides with some good premium as this is considered the frost month.
Looking at futures spreads, they have been weak the past two trading sessions and also foreshadow price action.
Support at 134, then nothing until 125
Downtrend Back Again on IBOVESPA After a nice rally (see related idea), downtrend back again on IBOVESPA
Signs:
-Hook and crossover on overbought region of StochasticRSI;
-MD down closed on RSI (white circles);
-Marubozu candle at top of rally, followed by bearish candle indicating exhausted rally;
-Price hit a conjunction of important trend lines, on a region of resistance;
IBOV decision triangleI see a decision region for the IBOV for the short term (less than a month). The breakout of this triangle shaped figure will determine the direction the index will take for longer terms.
Optimism?Petrobras in a new management. The new president says that he intends to rescue the company of an "organized gang", and will attempts partnership with shareholders to raise the economy of the company. In the other hand some scholars do not agree with the Parente's (new Director) proposals and intend to struggle against the reform in the company.
In my view, I am optimistic about the change in the company and the way of the Lava Jato (anti-corruption investigation) is taking.
From now the trend is improving, though bad times are still to come! Be aware.
BMFBOVESPA:PETR4 BMFBOVESPA:IND1!
Kind Regards.
Trying to catch reversal on Brazilian IndexWell, i believe that the dashed green line is a major support. Its a region of plenty RSI's UP MD (historically) and the dailly RSI is reaching the support of up trend. Its also the region of bottom of Wave 4 of the preceding rally. A look at the higher time frames will show that this is in fact a region of reversion, specially reversion from downtrends and corrections. There is a little more fall to occur, and i would watch for minor signals of reversion before a entry ( i may add charts of smaller timeframes in comments sessions) if the prices really reach this region. Targets are showed by green arrows (8,9% first and 11,8% then).
Give a look at my previous related idea on IBXL ().
Technical analysis is a matter of probability, it is not deterministic, i might be wrong, and if i am, i will stand corrected.
Wave (2) on IBXL (Brazil 50 Index)At first i thought that wave (2) already had happened, but i changed my counting, and think that it is about to happen on next days or weeks. Three other technical signs agreed with this idea: the divergence of momentum indicators (indicated by purple trend lines), overbought condition on them as well and the fact that price is hitting a top of major channel. I already closed my positions.
