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Brazil

No frost in BrazilSeems like no frost in Brazil. It was a busy weeks last week and throughout the weekend with fears a frost could hit coffee areas. None has been confirmed and worst fears did not play out. Once all of this is digested I expect some downside opportunities as the market goes back into trading technicals rather than emotions. Quite oversold and we saw sell signals on RSI and Stochastik a while ago. Also, the 5 hour chart will provide with a sell signal, which has been a superb indicator of short term price action (5-10 days). I am short via 1x2 calendar put spreads, long the 135s in Q and short the 125s in U and various other like this. As we move lower, option vega will come in and provide some nice profits. Also, selling the Sep (U16) contract provides with some good premium as this is considered the frost month. Looking at futures spreads, they have been weak the past two trading sessions and also foreshadow price action. Support at 134, then nothing until 125
KShort
by mjhillpp
5
Optimism?Petrobras in a new management. The new president says that he intends to rescue the company of an "organized gang", and will attempts partnership with shareholders to raise the economy of the company. In the other hand some scholars do not agree with the Parente's (new Director) proposals and intend to struggle against the reform in the company. In my view, I am optimistic about the change in the company and the way of the Lava Jato (anti-corruption investigation) is taking. From now the trend is improving, though bad times are still to come! Be aware. BMFBOVESPA:PETR4 BMFBOVESPA:IND1! Kind Regards.
BMFBOVESPA:PETR4
by GFauth
Trying to catch reversal on Brazilian IndexWell, i believe that the dashed green line is a major support. Its a region of plenty RSI's UP MD (historically) and the dailly RSI is reaching the support of up trend. Its also the region of bottom of Wave 4 of the preceding rally. A look at the higher time frames will show that this is in fact a region of reversion, specially reversion from downtrends and corrections. There is a little more fall to occur, and i would watch for minor signals of reversion before a entry ( i may add charts of smaller timeframes in comments sessions) if the prices really reach this region. Targets are showed by green arrows (8,9% first and 11,8% then). Give a look at my previous related idea on IBXL (). Technical analysis is a matter of probability, it is not deterministic, i might be wrong, and if i am, i will stand corrected.
BMFBOVESPA:IBXLLong
by f1l1per.
2
Note quite yet, KC longCoffee nearing the orange support line around 122 (2nd month continuation, about 119-120 front month ). Interesting fact about this correction lower from 134 to 122 is that this is the first time in a couple years that we actually have an up-sloping support line (orange line). If the orange support holds this could mark a longer term trend reversal. On the downside further targets remain the lower Bbands as well as the previous lows around 113. IMHO selling put spreads out in Sep16 might be a good risk reward once we reach the orange line (U16 110/100 p spread). The U provides some decent premium over the other contracts as this is the frost scare month.
K
by mjhillpp
Bovespa Symmetrical Downtrend Moves Back to a 1.618 Extension.The Bovespa has been forming a symmetrical downward trend followed by a 1.618 extension of the longer bull trend. You can see this in the chart by the first light blue fib retracement, and then I used a green arrow to indicate where the second retracement line is compared to the green 1.618 retracement line. The second to last move down is a bit tricky as it extended further than the previous downward moves (indicated by the dashed blue trend lines) and did not fully retrace back to its 1.618 extension of the larger trend. Instead it only retraced back to the .786 fib line and again made a downward move extremely similar to past downward moves (again indicated by the dashed blue lines.) It may be forming a double bottom, especially if it finishes out its symmetrical downward trend line, which is about where it’s at. If this is the case, expect a move again back to its 1.618 retracement. This mark is also important as it overlaps the much larger downward trend that started back in November of 2015. These retracement lines overlap almost perfectly and is indicates strong resistance. Target Price: is 55975-56007 by early to mid-June. I would actually rate this quite conservative as the upward extensions seem to happen in a 5-ish day time cycle sometimes followed by a week of slowly moving bullish trends indicating indecision. Make sure to give it time to play out its double bottom which Should be slightly higher than its first bottom of 49907.77 and be sure to use a smaller time frame chart for your entry. To play this index I may use a leveraged ETF like BRZU. Please Like and share and follow for future symmetrical and perhaps non symmetrical analysis. Thanks!
INDEX:IBOVLong
by KyleKeb
RunningAlpha Upgrades Commodity Markets Update to Priority ListRunningAlpha dot com Capital Markets Intelligence High Priority Update for Monday, May 2nd, 2016 Although $39 and $36.50 remains baseline intermediate to long-term support for Light Crude Oil ( in reference to June Contract Pricing ), the recent advance upwards has opened the door for a further short covering rally upwards to $62 to $65, and perhaps $74 to $76 levels if on a spike. Bullish window for buying on dips extends into at least June period -- this also applies to Brent Crude. Russian Stock Market ( $RSX ) looks bullish during this period. Oil and Gas Drilling stocks will likely continue higher on balance -- particularly a core position in stocks like $PBR.A would be sensible, which should also benefit from a continued bullish run in Brazilian Equities ( which I expect Brazilian equities should trend higher into the summer, and again later in the fall to close out the year much higher ). Among many other equities in Latin America, $ARCO and $KOF also have a strong bullish bias with sentiment conviction windows extending into foreseeable future. Other Commodity Markets showing very significant sentiment strength going forward are in the Agricultural complex -- Soybean, particularly Soybean Meal $SOYB, Rice, Corn $CORN, Cotton $BAL and Coffee ( $JO is ETF -- when above $18.02 and especially when trading above above $19.00, then $27 is interim target ), and even wheat to some degree. Equities that would benefit from a rise in these commodity markets should have a tail-wind. Silver and Gold stocks, which RunningAlpha.com has been bullish on for a few months now, still shows signs of strength on pullbacks. Sourced from premium sentiment conviction list on RunningAlpha dot com
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by runningalpha