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Brazil

Note quite yet, KC longCoffee nearing the orange support line around 122 (2nd month continuation, about 119-120 front month ). Interesting fact about this correction lower from 134 to 122 is that this is the first time in a couple years that we actually have an up-sloping support line (orange line). If the orange support holds this could mark a longer term trend reversal. On the downside further targets remain the lower Bbands as well as the previous lows around 113. IMHO selling put spreads out in Sep16 might be a good risk reward once we reach the orange line (U16 110/100 p spread). The U provides some decent premium over the other contracts as this is the frost scare month.
K
by mjhillpp
Bovespa Symmetrical Downtrend Moves Back to a 1.618 Extension.The Bovespa has been forming a symmetrical downward trend followed by a 1.618 extension of the longer bull trend. You can see this in the chart by the first light blue fib retracement, and then I used a green arrow to indicate where the second retracement line is compared to the green 1.618 retracement line. The second to last move down is a bit tricky as it extended further than the previous downward moves (indicated by the dashed blue trend lines) and did not fully retrace back to its 1.618 extension of the larger trend. Instead it only retraced back to the .786 fib line and again made a downward move extremely similar to past downward moves (again indicated by the dashed blue lines.) It may be forming a double bottom, especially if it finishes out its symmetrical downward trend line, which is about where it’s at. If this is the case, expect a move again back to its 1.618 retracement. This mark is also important as it overlaps the much larger downward trend that started back in November of 2015. These retracement lines overlap almost perfectly and is indicates strong resistance. Target Price: is 55975-56007 by early to mid-June. I would actually rate this quite conservative as the upward extensions seem to happen in a 5-ish day time cycle sometimes followed by a week of slowly moving bullish trends indicating indecision. Make sure to give it time to play out its double bottom which Should be slightly higher than its first bottom of 49907.77 and be sure to use a smaller time frame chart for your entry. To play this index I may use a leveraged ETF like BRZU. Please Like and share and follow for future symmetrical and perhaps non symmetrical analysis. Thanks!
INDEX:IBOVLong
by KyleKeb
RunningAlpha Upgrades Commodity Markets Update to Priority ListRunningAlpha dot com Capital Markets Intelligence High Priority Update for Monday, May 2nd, 2016 Although $39 and $36.50 remains baseline intermediate to long-term support for Light Crude Oil ( in reference to June Contract Pricing ), the recent advance upwards has opened the door for a further short covering rally upwards to $62 to $65, and perhaps $74 to $76 levels if on a spike. Bullish window for buying on dips extends into at least June period -- this also applies to Brent Crude. Russian Stock Market ( $RSX ) looks bullish during this period. Oil and Gas Drilling stocks will likely continue higher on balance -- particularly a core position in stocks like $PBR.A would be sensible, which should also benefit from a continued bullish run in Brazilian Equities ( which I expect Brazilian equities should trend higher into the summer, and again later in the fall to close out the year much higher ). Among many other equities in Latin America, $ARCO and $KOF also have a strong bullish bias with sentiment conviction windows extending into foreseeable future. Other Commodity Markets showing very significant sentiment strength going forward are in the Agricultural complex -- Soybean, particularly Soybean Meal $SOYB, Rice, Corn $CORN, Cotton $BAL and Coffee ( $JO is ETF -- when above $18.02 and especially when trading above above $19.00, then $27 is interim target ), and even wheat to some degree. Equities that would benefit from a rise in these commodity markets should have a tail-wind. Silver and Gold stocks, which RunningAlpha.com has been bullish on for a few months now, still shows signs of strength on pullbacks. Sourced from premium sentiment conviction list on RunningAlpha dot com
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by runningalpha
THE FORCE BEHIND BRAZIL'S RECENT BULLISHNESS (ANALYSIS ON EWZ) If you've been paying attention to headlines about Brazil recently, the term "impeachment" seems to be all over the place. But what's really driving prices upwards in the country's stock market? Is it the daily swaying impeachment probability or something else? Today's instrument to be analysed is EWZ, the ETF that seeks to track the investment results of the MSCI Brazil 25/50 Index. The fund generally invests at least 95% of its assets in the securities of its underlying index and in depositary receipts ("DRs") representing securities in its underlying index. The index, which consists of stocks traded primarily on the BM&FBOVESPA, is a free float-adjusted market capitalization-weighted index with a capping methodology applied to issuer weights so that no single issuer of a component exceeds 25% of the underlying index weight, and all issuers with weight above 5% do not cumulatively exceed 50% of the underlying index weight. The fund is non-diversified. (source: finance.yahoo.com) The chart's left side is late October 2014, when president Dilma Rousseff got re-elected. As can be seen, EWZ price has since then maintained a close correlation with the price of other Emerging Market ETFs and Indexes 2015 was a perfect storm for Emerging Markets. With China's slowdown, a commodity crash, the strong dollar, a Fed rate hike, the light at the end of the tunnel was nowhere to be seen. Commodities Many emerging markets depend on commodities like oil, iron and copper in order for their economies to do well. Commodity prices tumbled in 2015, with Crude Oil hitting a 7-year low in December. Oil and other commodities are not set to boom in 2016, but they likely won't tumble as much as they did last year, specially if OPEC agrees on setting production quotas again. China's Slowdown China is transitioning to a consumer-led economy from one led by manufacturing and construction, meaning its demand for all those commodities has plummeted. China has been cutting rates, weakening the currency and pumping money into the economy to counteract the slowdown. Many experts believe China's growth may slow down more in 2016, but not at a faster pace. A more stable China should help the countries that depend on it. Strong Dollar and Rate Hike The good news is that a weak currency lets emerging markets sell products abroad more cheaply, making them more attractive to foreign buyers. That eventually boosts exports and, in turn, economic growth. The bad news is that emerging markets have to pay off some debt in U.S. dollars. In total, there's $3 trillion of emerging market debt denominated in dollars, according to Wells Fargo. As the dollar rallies, that debt gets more expensive to pay back. The rate hike makes the US Bonds more attractive and attract foreign money to the US. This money has to be exchanged into US Dollars and ends up boosting the currency. Many leaders in emerging markets are actually glad the Fed finally raised rates. So much uncertainty surrounded the first rate hike, and now that it's done, that gives emerging markets more clarity. With all this in mind, it's silly to say Dilma's possible impeachment is the main responsible for the upwards drive in Brazil's stock market prices...
AMEX:EWZ
by geraldelli
The Force Behind Brazil's Recent Bullishness (Analysis on VALE)If you've been paying attention to headlines about Brazil recently, the term "impeachment" seems to be all over the place. But what's really driving prices upwards in the country's stock market? Is it the daily swaying impeachment probability or something else? Today's stock to be analysed is VALE, the Brazilian iron ore producer. The chart's left side is late October 2014, when president Dilma Rousseff got re-elected. As can be seen, Vale's stock price has since then maintained a close correlation with the price of the main product it sells. The analysis gets even more interesting when the stocks of other notable Iron Ore producers are plotted on the chart... Anglo-Australian BHP Billiton and US-Based Freeport McMoRan. So, what's really driving those prices more, Dilma or Iron Ore(rhymed!)? I'll stick with Iron Ore...
NYSE:VALE
by geraldelli
PBR is correlated to oil prices, but that's not all...PBR is correlated to oil prices, but that's not all. Out of a selection of other oil majors, PBR underperforms significantly when the starting month of August 2011 is chosen, a date I arbitrarily chose due to launch of a new industrial policy in Brasil (a proxy of changing economic policy). Note, however, work done by my friend, Raphael Geraldelli (related ideas), showing a much closer correlation of PBR to oil prices in a more recent period (). The takeaway here is that although PBR is correlated to oil prices, internal company issues and Brazilian political economy played an important historical role in the stock's price and I believe it will continue to do so moving foreword.
NYSE:PBR
by BrunoBoni
Short Petrobras based on an unsustainable rallyFundamentals Petrobras has seen an 80% rally through March, which is unsustainable. The reason for this is because the rally is based on the possible [ impeachment of president Dilma Rousseff, whose policies adversely affected the Brazilian oil market. While this is good news for the Brazilian oil company, the fundamentals of the company simply do not fit with such a rally. It still has the largest debt level in the entire oil industry at about £75 billion; it will continue to have legal costs incurred from a corruption scandal; oil prices are still too low to be strongly profitable, and in my opinion will move lower to about $30, which will further fuel this rally to be pared. Technicals The stock price has hit a very strong level of resistance in the 4.50 and 4.75 price range, as indicated by the horizontal black lines, and is likely to rebound off this. There has also been very strong bearish divergence on the RSI, which is all indicated by the thin black arrows.
NYSE:PBR.AShort
by olly_price