GOLD AND WORLD TENSIONS GOOD DAY FELLAS
Gold, represented as XAU USD, is currently trading at 1980 USD. While many market participants expect gold to break its previous high of 2080 USD, there are diverging opinions on the future price direction of gold. In this analysis, we will explore the fundamental and technical factors that could influence the price of gold in the short and long term.
Fundamentally, gold is seen as a safe haven asset, and its price is often influenced by geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty. The US dollar is also an important factor in the price of gold, as they are inversely correlated. As the dollar weakens, gold becomes relatively cheaper for holders of other currencies, and demand for gold tends to increase. Conversely, when the dollar strengthens, the demand for gold weakens.
Currently, tensions around the world are high, and there is economic uncertainty in various regions. The US dollar is also under pressure due to the increasing national debt and the ongoing tensions. These factors suggest that demand for gold could increase in the short term. However, I believe that the US will not allow markets to turn against the dollar, which could impact the price of gold.
From a technical perspective, i believe that gold is currently undergoing a correction on the weekly time frame. This correction is targeting the downward support zone, which intersects with the golden ratio of Fibonacci at 1370-1500 USD dollars. This zone is seen as an attractive level to buy gold. Fibonacci ratios are often used by technical analysts to identify potential levels of support and resistance in financial markets.
In summary, the current price of gold is 1980 USD, and there are diverging opinions on its future price direction. While geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty could support the price of gold in the short term, the US dollar and government intervention in markets could limit its upside potential. From a technical perspective, gold is currently undergoing a correction, and a potential buying opportunity is seen at the support zone of 1370-1500 USD dollars
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Brazil
Brazil Ishares MSCI ETF (EWZ) $EWZBrazil Ishares MSCI ETF (EWZ)
27.01 +0.33 (+1.24%) 03/29/23
27.29 x 8 27.50 x 1 POST-MARKET 27.31 +0.30 (+1.11%)
Signal Strength is a long-term
EWZ Dividend Information
EWZ has a dividend yield of 13.04% and paid $3.52 per share in the past year. The last ex-dividend date was Dec 13, 2022
www.nasdaq.com
Sentiment Let's continue to observe the social moods in the world.
The main news today is the unrest in Brazil: supporters of former President Jair Bolsonaro stormed the Congress, the Supreme Court and the Presidential Palace. They are protesting against the election of Luis Inacio Lula da Silva as president, calling for a coup d'état, the annulment of elections and the imprisonment of da Silva.
Let's try to assess the prospects for Brazil by correlation with the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF, which includes indicators in US dollars. It peaked in 2008 and has been losing over 60% since then.
The long-term downtrend began shortly after former US President Obama called then-President of Brazil da Silva "the most popular politician on earth."
Whether this is the bottom remains to be seen, but it certainly deserves attention.
PAGS | 6 Month Support Hit | BouncePagSeguro Digital Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides financial technology solutions and services for consumers, individual entrepreneurs, micro-merchants, and small and medium-sized companies in Brazil and internationally. The company's products and services include PagSeguro Ecosystem, a digital ecosystem that operates as a closed loop where its clients are able to address their primary day to day financial needs, including receiving and spending funds, and managing and growing their businesses; PagBank digital account, which offers banking services through the PagBank mobile app, as well as centralizes various cash-in options, functionalities, services, and cash-out options in a single ecosystem; and PlugPag, a tool for medium-sized and larger merchants that enables them to connect their point of sale (POS) device directly to their enterprise resource planning software or sales automation system through Bluetooth. It also offers cash-in solutions; online and in-person payment tools; and online gaming and cross-border digital services, as well as issues prepaid, credit, and cash cards. In addition, the company provides functionalities, and value-added services and features, such as purchase protection mechanisms, antifraud platform, account and business management tools, and POS app; and operates an online platform that facilitates peer-to-peer lending. Further, it is involved in processing of back-office solutions, including sales reconciliation, and gateway solutions and services, as well as the capture of credit cards with acquirers and sub acquirers. The company was founded in 2006 and is headquartered in Sao Paulo, Brazil.
Do the LAfter the Second World War, with the advance of modernism, humanity entered in a phase that I like to call "Say nice things, and should be fine".
Even politics stopped being a pragmatic process and started to be more like sports crowds mixed with cheating feelings.
We are still advancing into this delusional process of disconnection from reality. People are not voting for the best policies, they are voting because their chosen politician says nice things.
I often think about how would it be, if possible, to put one 30-year-old person from 1920 to talk to one 30 from 2022. IMO it would be the closest thing to Order and Chaos.
In 1920, the order was in the individuals and the chaos in the environment, that is why they created, improved, and laboured their surroundings to improve their lives.
In 2022, the chaos is inside the individuals and order must come from the environment, that is why we see depression, mental confusion and mass hysteria.
My brief introduction will base my argument here.
In Brazil, the people had two choices:
1 - a man who has no manners, who is not full of class, and who hasn't an erudite way of saying things. But this man is also, honest, pragmatic and economically results-driven.
2 - a man who is known for his rhetoric skills. Even his mate said that he is a "Serpent Enchanter". He cries he shouts, he poses himself as the underdog's leader. But this man is also a proven corrupt politician, able to create all sorts of schemes to buy out all other politicians and steal a lot of money, I mean a lot.
P.s: My two descriptions may be affected by bias, but I believe they are not too far from reality.
Now, in a pragmatic world, where the results and actions are what matters, where chaos is in the environment, people could not care less about what the leader says, as long as he/she is able to improve their overall life and wealth.
In opposition, in a world where chaos is inside the people, results are not the primary value, but soft words, illusions, utopia and good lies are the goal. People could not care less about how much money the leader stole or how much of their freedom is lost, as long as he says the "right" thing, everything is fine.
Brazil, recently made a choice, the second option. Personally, I am not surprised at all. Throughout my readings, for a long time, I have learned. I know we live in 2022, and I know that our society is enchanted by nice words and not results.
Two days ago, a 2022 person, attacked me in one of my bearish posts about the Brazilian economy. He argued that I was wrong and that everything is fine. Yesterday, the "elected" president said something about the economy and the stocks instantly crashed. For that guy, everything is fine, as long as the "elected" president says nice things. He does not care if the same "elected" president, who is not the president yet and only will be in 2 months' time, has the power of crashing the whole stocks index of the country with a few words, but that is too much a reality for him.
Let the printing begin!!! LULAThe charts never lie.
The Law of Large Numbers, by Jacob Bernoulli, defends that we can accurately predict an event when we utilise large numbers.
This chart has a precise bull flag formation that has been forming way before the election results.
Now we have the Brazilian people's decision, LULA has "won" and the left is back in power.
From my point of view, it is a disastrous moment for the country, LULA has numerous cases of very, I mean, extensive systemic corruption in his back.
Now he will have to deal with the current worldwide recession.
The printing will be massive.
This is the confirmation for the bull flag breakout.
Bolsonaro's election on October 30Bolsonaro wins in a risk return of 2 to 1.
For more information read the documentation:
help.ftx.com
If the current president is re-elected, the contract ends at $1.
Otherwise, the contract is finalized at $0 and the stake is turned to dust.
Corruption RankThe Corruption Perceptions Index Rank (CPI Ranking) is published annually by Transparency International, a non-governmental organisation.
The Corruption Perceptions Index ranks countries by their perceived levels of public sector corruption on a scale from 100 (very clean) to 0 (highly corrupt).
Source:
tradingeconomics.com
Democracy continues to work steady and strong...
Inflation Rate of the G20 countriesThe G20 is made up of the world's 19 largest economies, represented by the finance ministers and heads of central banks, plus the European Union, represented by the European Central Bank and the rotating presidency of the European Council.
This graph shows the inflation of these countries month over month (MoM).
Source:
tradingeconomics.com
Sccp fan token Sccp fan token (Sao Paulo Brazil , big team + big stadium 50.000 sits , big city, many fans)
1)Rival SANTOS is est right now 15$ /SANTOS.
Sccp FORECAST least 20-40$ / SCCP.
2)IN 4 YEARS i dont think that will sell you so low prices fan tokens .(low supply on most, 5M - 30M ) .
3)NFA , best prices in my opinion i think is under 4-5 $ per token .
Brazil to enter the next round of the presidential electionEUR/USD ▶️
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USD/CAD 🔼
XAU ▶️
WTI 🔽
A fine margin in the results has denied an outright victory in the Brazilian presidential election, both former and current presidents will go head to head in the next round. While the people are divided by their choice of leader, potential unrest lies ahead if the final result sparks controversies.
As an oil producer and commodity exporter, this could further disrupt the global supply chain. WTI oil futures declined to $79.49 a barrel and just surged to $81.67. Despite experiencing considerable fluctuations, recession fears kept gold prices mostly steady at $1,660.98 an ounce.
After rebounding from 0.9744, the Euro then closed to 0.9799 against the US dollar, and GBP/USD went higher to 1.116. Later today, both Germany and the UK will provide their manufacturing PMI readings for September, the market expects the manufacturing sectors would not change in terms of performance.
Tomorrow morning, the Reserve Bank of Australia is going to announce its interest rate decision, current estimates anticipated a 50-basis point increase to 2.85%. Meanwhile, AUD/USD recovered from a low of 0.6397 to 0.6402, recording a loss of over 100 pips. USD/CAD closed at a high of 1.3826, and the US manufacturing PMI will be available early tomorrow.
More information on Mitrade website.
WEGE3 go to 30!Wege3 go to 30BRL until Aug. 16th, it the new resistance, on The AB CD (d) indicates 30 BRL , The XABCD indicates (d) on 32BRL. Fibonacci retraction indicate 30, therefore WEGE3 walk to 30!. You can confirm if the stock down to 27 (support) and cumulate some valume. After, 30 is the target!, 32 is a other special point.
@cleber.martinelli @vgamstalden
EWZ Brazil, a commodities proxy is now in Wave 3 of IIIWith the current fear of recession & rising inflation in the US, a lot of funds will be flowing outside into emerging markets, China & also Brazil which is rich in commodities especially now that the dollar seems to be peaking out as foreign markets slowly becomes more attractive to invest in.
EWZ may retrace down first to fill the gap at 33.65 green line. A bounce from here will enable a near 20% rally to the 0.618 red zone at 40 to 42.43.
42.43 will be a strong pivot point since it is the intersection of the 0.50 red dotted FIB level of my slanted FIB CHANNEL with 1.272 FIB of the recent wave 2. EWZ is currently in the wave 3 of 3 of a larger wave III.
Not trading advice
EWZ Long Term PlayOne of my followers asked me for a long term play, here's one.
EWZ (Brazil) is still at the same level as 2008. It's in a pennant and looks like it will break upward. Why? What does 2022 and 2007 have in common? High oil and commodity prices.
Materials and Energy is 40% of EWZ plus the currency is rallying because of oil. I suppose you can play DBC (commodity index fund) instead if you prefer or both. DBC is now finally back to 2007 levels.
Now that I think about it, it probably makes sense to park my money in DBC as an inflation hedge.