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USD BRL chart Analysis EN and PT language On a weekly time frame, the Brazilian Real has experienced a downward trend since 2011. There are several reasons that have contributed to the market's inflation and the weakening of the Brazilian economy against the US Dollar. These reasons include factors such as job vacancies, high crime rates, corruption, and a complex tax system. The chart analysis indicates that the waves from 2011 to 2023 can be identified as five distinct waves, with wave 5 ending at 6 Brazilian Reals for 1 US Dollar. This signifies the continuous decline of the Brazilian economy over the years relative to the United States Dollars . In 2020, the Brazilian Real reached its highest exchange rate of 6 Reals for 1 Dollar, primarily due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. From a technical analysis perspective, this peak could be considered the end of wave 5, which had started in 2011 and lasted until 2020. Following the peak of wave 5, a correction phase began, resulting in complex wave corrections known as WXYXZ waves. In my opinion, this correction was influenced by various economic problems in the United States, including the closure of many banks and a substantial increase in national debt, which exceeded 1.4 trillion dollars for the first time in 30 years. Additionally, the Ukrainian War also had an impact on the value of the US Dollar. These factors are likely to have a positive effect on the Brazilian economy since Brazil stands in a different position from the United States in terms of economic conditions. Moreover, Brazil implemented several changes at the beginning of 2023, such as the decision made by BRICS members to use their local currencies for official transactions, reducing dependence on the US Dollar. Considering the current exchange rate of around 5 Reals for 1 Dollar, it is possible that the price may experience a slight increase as part of the (x) wave. However, by the end of the year, it is expected to start moving downwards, reaching a range between 4.5 and 4.2 Reals for 1 Dollar. This downward movement would mark the completion of the Z wave, concluding the overall wave cycle. It is important to note that further developments and news will shape the future chart for the Brazilian Real. Economic and geopolitical events can have significant impacts on currency exchange rates, and these factors should be carefully monitored to assess the potential direction of the Brazilian Real against the US Dollar. BY Rami Rachid HiddenTreausre portuguese : Em um período semanal, o Real Brasileiro tem experimentado uma tendência de queda desde 2011. Existem várias razões que têm contribuído para a inflação do mercado e o enfraquecimento da economia brasileira em relação ao Dólar Americano. Essas razões incluem fatores como vagas de emprego, altas taxas de criminalidade, corrupção e um sistema tributário complexo. A análise do gráfico indica que as ondas de 2011 a 2023 podem ser identificadas como cinco ondas distintas, com a onda 5 terminando em 6 Reais Brasileiros por 1 Dólar Americano. Isso significa o declínio contínuo da economia brasileira ao longo dos anos em relação ao Dólar dos Estados Unidos. Em 2020, o Real Brasileiro atingiu sua maior taxa de câmbio de 6 Reais por 1 Dólar, principalmente devido ao impacto da pandemia de COVID-19. Do ponto de vista da análise técnica, esse pico poderia ser considerado o fim da onda 5, que havia começado em 2011 e durado até 2020. Após o pico da onda 5, uma fase de correção começou, resultando em correções complexas conhecidas como ondas WXYXZ. Na minha opinião, essa correção foi influenciada por diversos problemas econômicos nos Estados Unidos, incluindo o fechamento de muitos bancos e um aumento substancial na dívida nacional, que ultrapassou 1,4 trilhão de dólares pela primeira vez em 30 anos. Além disso, a Guerra da Ucrânia também teve impacto no valor do Dólar Americano. Esses fatores provavelmente terão um efeito positivo na economia brasileira, uma vez que o Brasil ocupa uma posição diferente dos Estados Unidos em termos de condições econômicas. Além disso, o Brasil implementou várias mudanças no início de 2023, como a decisão dos membros do BRICS de utilizar suas moedas locais para transações oficiais, reduzindo a dependência do Dólar Americano. Considerando a taxa de câmbio atual de cerca de 5 Reais por 1 Dólar, é possível que o preço possa ter um leve aumento como parte da onda (x). No entanto, até o final do ano, espera-se que comece a se mover para baixo, alcançando uma faixa entre 4,5 e 4,2 Reais por 1 Dólar. Esse movimento descendente marcaria a conclusão da onda Z, encerrando o ciclo geral de ondas. É importante observar que desenvolvimentos e notícias futuras moldarão o gráfico futuro para o Real Brasileiro. Eventos econômicos e geopolíticos podem ter impactos significativos nas taxas de câmbio, e esses fatores devem ser monitorados cuidadosamente para avaliar a direção potencial do Real Brasileiro em relação ao Dólar Americano. POR Rami Rachid HiddenTreausre
by Htback
2
Heavy Exports Weighing Down SoybeansSoybean is among the world’s most traded crop. It is used in various industries. Soybean drives global food prices. It can tilt trade balances of an entire nation. This paper describes the importance of Soybean. It lists key producers, consumer and maps the harvesting cycle across the calendar by top producing countries. Given rising Brazilian exports, higher US planting, and asset manager’s positioning, this paper articulates a case study for a short position in CME Soybeans Futures delivering a 1.3x reward to risk with entry at USc 1,452.5/bushel and target of USc 1,350/bushel hedged by a stop at USc 1,530/bushel. SOYBEAN IS THE WORLD’S MOST TRADED GRAIN Soybean is high in protein. Hence, it is a key component of livestock feed for meat & dairy production. Rising consumption of the latter two continues to push Soybeans demand. Two-thirds of Soybean is used for crushing into oil and meal. Soybean oil is among the most widely used vegetable oils. It is also used as biodiesel. The two American continents form 80% of global production. Brazil (42%) and the US (31%) are the two largest producers of Soybeans. Argentina is a distant third (7%). China drives demand. It is the largest importer of Soybeans. It comprises 60% of global imports. Soybeans is used to feed China’s massive livestock. Soybean prices are cyclical and prone to price shocks. HARVESTING CYCLE, WEATHER & TRADE POLICY HUGELY INFLUENCES PRICES Prices vary through the year. It is lowest at harvest. Increases during the year with rising inventory holding costs. Harvest seasons are spread differently across North & South America. US harvest is from September to November. While the Brazil & Argentina harvest from March until June. Not surprisingly, Brazilian and US harvest has an enormous impact on Soybean prices. Actual production deviating from expectations in these two majors can send prices surging or tumbling. Soybean prices since 2015 is visualised below. Prices have structurally moved up. Prices have surged driven by robust demand since 2020. Soybean prices on average have ranged 14% from its lowest to the highest over the last eight years with large price gyrations in 2016 and 2020. Price behaviour during and post-harvest since 2015 is visually described in the heatmap below. All things being equal, Soybean prices trend lower during harvesting followed by price recovery post-harvest. However, each year presents idiosyncratic conditions related to weather, trade policy, yield and output, causing price fluctuation. Beyond the harvest cycle, climate has a significant impact. North and South America is heavily affected by El Niño-Southern Oscillation which is a natural climate pattern causing hotter/dryer climate every three to seven years. El- Niño also elevates the chances of droughts and floods. Demand for Soybean Oil is also impacted by supply and demand of other vegetable oils like Palm Oil due to substitution effect. Global trade policy has a considerable influence too. Trade restrictions can disrupt global supply-demand balance, resulting in increased volatility. HIGHER PLANTING IN US, RISING BRAZILIAN EXPORTS, AND FALLING YIELDS IN ARGENTINA USA : In its recent Market Outlook, the USDA reported that US farmers were planning to plant marginally higher than last year but below market expectations. As per National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA), soybean crushing spiked to a 15-month high and the second highest level for any month on record in March. The crushing pace jumped as processors bounce back from maintenance related downtime. Brazil : Soybean exports from Brazil surged 42.5% YoY during the first half of April. Bean prices have trended lower on larger than expected supply. Argentina : USDA reduced its forecast of Argentina’s soybean crop to twenty-seven million metric tons down from thirty-three million metric tons last month. Argentina’s soybean yields sunk to historical lows last week as per Buenos Aires Grains Exchange’s (BAGE) weekly report. BAGE warned that its projection, currently at twenty-five million metric tons, could be reduced if yield remains suppressed. COMMITMENT OF TRADERS REPORT Two-thirds of soybean crop is crushed into oil and meal. The crush spread, also sometimes referred to as simply the crush, refers to the difference between the value of soybean meal and oil and the price of soybeans. The “crush” is gross processing margin from crushing soybeans. As such, these three products are deeply intertwined. Asset managers have reduced net longs in all three contracts since the start of 2023. Intriguingly, asset managers have reduced net longs much more sharply for Oil and Meal relative to Soybeans. TRADE SET UP Four key drivers at play. First, rising supply from Brazil. Second, higher planting by US farmers. Third, bearish asset manager positioning. Finally, first three offset by marginal impact of lower yields in Argentina. In forming a holistic view, this paper posits a short position in CME Soybeans July contract. Each lot provides exposure to 5,000 bushels (~136 tons). Prices are quoted in U.S. cents per bushel. Minimum price fluctuation (tick) is one-fourth of one-cent. Therefore, every tick represents a change of USD 12.50 per lot. ● Entry: USc 1,452.5 ● Target: USc 1,350 ● Stop: USc 1,530 ● Profit at target: USD 5,125 ● Loss at stop: USD 3,875 ● Reward-to-risk: 1.3x MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
CBOT:ZSN2023Short
by mintdotfinance
On a sugar high, owing to weak supplySugar prices have soared this year, up +21.6%1 owing to concerns about tight global supplies. Lower Indian supply coupled with weaker than expected output from Thailand, (at the second and third largest sugar exporters respectively) continue to provide a tailwind for sugar prices. While Brazil’s harvest in the coming months is expected to be strong, logistical hurdles owing to higher exports of soybean and corn could restrict supplies over the coming months thereby supporting sugar prices higher. Net speculative positioning on sugar is 139% above the 5-year average2. Over the past month, short positioning has declined 16% highlighting the improvement of sentiment on the sugar market. Weaker sugar supply from India India is one of the largest exporters of white sugar, but shipments are controlled by quotas. The Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) latest report indicate that Indian sugar production fell marginally to 28.2mt so far this season through 15 March3. ISMA cut its sugar production estimate for 2022/23 crop year to 33.5mn tons from 34.5mn tons on account of lower output and more use of sugarcane for biofuel. Sugarcane processing in Maharashtra, the most important growing state, could end 45-60 days earlier than last year because heavy rainfall has reduced the availability of sugarcane. Sugar production in Maharashtra is likely to total a mere 12.8mn tons according to the chief of State’s sugar commission, nearly 1mn tons less than previously anticipated. Lower sugar output is raising concerns that the India government could restrict additional exports. More use of sugar diverted to India’s Biofuel program At the same time, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is pursuing an aggressive biofuel program that will see more sugar cane diverted to make ethanol to help curb air pollution and reduce oil import bill. The biofuel program also lies in the interest of farmers by making use of excess local production and boosting their incomes. This season, the government plans to divert 5mn tons of sugar to make ethanol, up from 3.6mn tons a year earlier4. The eventual goal is to divert 6mn tons annually toward fuel production by 2025. Lower sugar production in Thailand remains price supportive for sugar Thailand’s Office of the Cane and Sugar board confirmed that Thailand crushed 93.88mt of sugarcane in 2022/23, lower than the initial estimates for more than 100mt of cane5. As a result, the bumper crop expected in Thailand is also falling short, resulting in 2022/23 total sugar output in Thailand will be at around 11mn tons (versus the 12mn tons expected earlier in the season)5. Lower than expected output from Thailand combined with less supply from India remains price supportive for sugar. The front end of the sugar futures curve remains in backwardation yielding a positive roll yield of 2.9% reflecting tightness in the market for short term balances. Logistical bottlenecks could restrict supply from Brazil Looking ahead, progress of the sugar crop in the Centre- South region of Brazil remains a key headwind for sugar prices. Brazil sugar production is expected to be over 36.5mn tons in 2023/24, only slightly less than the all-time high of 38.4mn tons seen in the 2020/21 marketing year6. However, shipping Brazilian sugar could face delays in the Port of Santos as it competes with exports of other Brazilian grains such as corn and soybean. Road freight is also likely to face significant price increases. Santos terminals receive sugar and grains by trains and trucks. However, competition from transporting soybeans has been taking space away from sugar in train cars. Higher freight prices impact the margins of the mills. Likelihood of El Niño, if realised, remains price supportive for sugar With La Niña over, there is now a chance the Pacific Ocean surface could warm later this year and spark what is called El Niño. The US Climate Prediction Centre has raised the likelihood of an El Niño emerging between August and October to 74% from 61% a month ago. One common knock-on effect is higher precipitation volumes which would be positive for sugar prices over the medium term with fewer milling days and sugar production. El Niño could bring relief to drought parched areas of Argentina and southern US, but it could also lead to hotter and drier conditions in parts of Asia and Australia. Conclusion Restricted supply from India alongside lower supply from Thailand have helped sugar along its upward journey so far. Looking ahead, with the Argentinian soybean crop forecasts struggling in the face of the ongoing drought, we expect Brazil to do a lot of the heavy lifting by offsetting the shortfall in supply of both soybean and corn. This is why, logistical hurdles are likely to impede the supply of Brazilian sugar thereby supporting sugar prices higher over the medium term.
ICEUS:SB1!
by aneekaguptaWTE
Gold, China, BRICS vs. US Dollar HegemonyIn the contemporary global landscape, compelling arguments exist for a pro-Gold, pro-China, pro-BRICS case and a pro-US, pro-USD case. This extensive analysis will explore both perspectives, starting with the pro-Gold, pro-China, and pro-BRICS cases. The global commodity supply and demand pricing dynamics reveal a shift in gold businesses from the US to China. Since 2013, gold demand in Asia has led to the migration of vaults, physical and financial trading operations, and even exchanges to the East. This shift signifies an increasing connection between oil, gold, and the Chinese Yuan, as evidenced by the gold-for-oil trade between Russia and China in 2017. Rumors of Saudi Arabia using renminbi from oil sales to buy gold on the Shanghai Exchange also indicate a growing connection between these commodities and the Chinese currency. The BRICS coalition (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) has formed to counter G7 control and assert their interests in the global landscape. The US freezing Russia's foreign currency reserves and cutting them off from the SWIFT system has catalyzed the emergence of Bretton Woods III, a new era of commodity-based neutral reserve currencies. As the US hegemony declines, a new world order with multiple powers based on commodities production and trade is emerging. However, the pro-US, pro-USD case argues that despite concerns surrounding the dollar's hegemony, it remains a crucial player in global transactions. China's economy faces growing debt, an expanding real estate bubble, and potentially inflated GDP numbers. Moreover, the yuan (RMB) faces significant challenges in becoming a globally accepted reserve currency, primarily due to China's capital controls, illiquid markets, and authoritarian governance. In contrast, the US dollar remains dominant in global central bank reserves and transactions. This is partly due to the dollar's resilience and the perception of the US's security and stability. Although reserves have shifted for countries with closer trade relations with China, the US dollar remains the world standard. The push for de-dollarization has gained momentum recently, particularly after the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Western sanctions against Russia. However, moving away from the US dollar system is challenging for several reasons, including the US dollar's dominance in global markets, the yuan's limitations as a globally accepted alternative to the US dollar, OPEC members continuing to price their oil in US dollars, and the obstacles faced by BRICS nations in creating a new currency to facilitate trade and promote de-dollarization. In conclusion, while there are signs of a shift in the balance of global reserve currencies, it is premature to predict the decline of the US dollar's dominance in international markets. The pro-Gold, pro-China, pro-BRICS case highlights the increasing role of gold and the emergence of a new world order with multiple powers based on commodities production and trade. However, the pro-US, pro-USD case emphasizes the resilience and stability of the US dollar and the challenges faced by alternative reserve currencies, such as the yuan, in replacing the US dollar on a large scale in the foreseeable future.
by BitcoinMacro
GOLD AND WORLD TENSIONS GOOD DAY FELLAS Gold, represented as XAU USD, is currently trading at 1980 USD. While many market participants expect gold to break its previous high of 2080 USD, there are diverging opinions on the future price direction of gold. In this analysis, we will explore the fundamental and technical factors that could influence the price of gold in the short and long term. Fundamentally, gold is seen as a safe haven asset, and its price is often influenced by geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty. The US dollar is also an important factor in the price of gold, as they are inversely correlated. As the dollar weakens, gold becomes relatively cheaper for holders of other currencies, and demand for gold tends to increase. Conversely, when the dollar strengthens, the demand for gold weakens. Currently, tensions around the world are high, and there is economic uncertainty in various regions. The US dollar is also under pressure due to the increasing national debt and the ongoing tensions. These factors suggest that demand for gold could increase in the short term. However, I believe that the US will not allow markets to turn against the dollar, which could impact the price of gold. From a technical perspective, i believe that gold is currently undergoing a correction on the weekly time frame. This correction is targeting the downward support zone, which intersects with the golden ratio of Fibonacci at 1370-1500 USD dollars. This zone is seen as an attractive level to buy gold. Fibonacci ratios are often used by technical analysts to identify potential levels of support and resistance in financial markets. In summary, the current price of gold is 1980 USD, and there are diverging opinions on its future price direction. While geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty could support the price of gold in the short term, the US dollar and government intervention in markets could limit its upside potential. From a technical perspective, gold is currently undergoing a correction, and a potential buying opportunity is seen at the support zone of 1370-1500 USD dollars A LIKE ON THIS POST WOULD HELP ME A LOT IF YOU PLEASE ,,
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Htback
3
Sentiment Let's continue to observe the social moods in the world. The main news today is the unrest in Brazil: supporters of former President Jair Bolsonaro stormed the Congress, the Supreme Court and the Presidential Palace. They are protesting against the election of Luis Inacio Lula da Silva as president, calling for a coup d'état, the annulment of elections and the imprisonment of da Silva. Let's try to assess the prospects for Brazil by correlation with the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF, which includes indicators in US dollars. It peaked in 2008 and has been losing over 60% since then. The long-term downtrend began shortly after former US President Obama called then-President of Brazil da Silva "the most popular politician on earth." Whether this is the bottom remains to be seen, but it certainly deserves attention.
AMEX:EWZ
by Financial_Wave
PAGS | 6 Month Support Hit | BouncePagSeguro Digital Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides financial technology solutions and services for consumers, individual entrepreneurs, micro-merchants, and small and medium-sized companies in Brazil and internationally. The company's products and services include PagSeguro Ecosystem, a digital ecosystem that operates as a closed loop where its clients are able to address their primary day to day financial needs, including receiving and spending funds, and managing and growing their businesses; PagBank digital account, which offers banking services through the PagBank mobile app, as well as centralizes various cash-in options, functionalities, services, and cash-out options in a single ecosystem; and PlugPag, a tool for medium-sized and larger merchants that enables them to connect their point of sale (POS) device directly to their enterprise resource planning software or sales automation system through Bluetooth. It also offers cash-in solutions; online and in-person payment tools; and online gaming and cross-border digital services, as well as issues prepaid, credit, and cash cards. In addition, the company provides functionalities, and value-added services and features, such as purchase protection mechanisms, antifraud platform, account and business management tools, and POS app; and operates an online platform that facilitates peer-to-peer lending. Further, it is involved in processing of back-office solutions, including sales reconciliation, and gateway solutions and services, as well as the capture of credit cards with acquirers and sub acquirers. The company was founded in 2006 and is headquartered in Sao Paulo, Brazil.
NYSE:PAGSLong
by DivergenceSeeker
2
Do the LAfter the Second World War, with the advance of modernism, humanity entered in a phase that I like to call "Say nice things, and should be fine". Even politics stopped being a pragmatic process and started to be more like sports crowds mixed with cheating feelings. We are still advancing into this delusional process of disconnection from reality. People are not voting for the best policies, they are voting because their chosen politician says nice things. I often think about how would it be, if possible, to put one 30-year-old person from 1920 to talk to one 30 from 2022. IMO it would be the closest thing to Order and Chaos. In 1920, the order was in the individuals and the chaos in the environment, that is why they created, improved, and laboured their surroundings to improve their lives. In 2022, the chaos is inside the individuals and order must come from the environment, that is why we see depression, mental confusion and mass hysteria. My brief introduction will base my argument here. In Brazil, the people had two choices: 1 - a man who has no manners, who is not full of class, and who hasn't an erudite way of saying things. But this man is also, honest, pragmatic and economically results-driven. 2 - a man who is known for his rhetoric skills. Even his mate said that he is a "Serpent Enchanter". He cries he shouts, he poses himself as the underdog's leader. But this man is also a proven corrupt politician, able to create all sorts of schemes to buy out all other politicians and steal a lot of money, I mean a lot. P.s: My two descriptions may be affected by bias, but I believe they are not too far from reality. Now, in a pragmatic world, where the results and actions are what matters, where chaos is in the environment, people could not care less about what the leader says, as long as he/she is able to improve their overall life and wealth. In opposition, in a world where chaos is inside the people, results are not the primary value, but soft words, illusions, utopia and good lies are the goal. People could not care less about how much money the leader stole or how much of their freedom is lost, as long as he says the "right" thing, everything is fine. Brazil, recently made a choice, the second option. Personally, I am not surprised at all. Throughout my readings, for a long time, I have learned. I know we live in 2022, and I know that our society is enchanted by nice words and not results. Two days ago, a 2022 person, attacked me in one of my bearish posts about the Brazilian economy. He argued that I was wrong and that everything is fine. Yesterday, the "elected" president said something about the economy and the stocks instantly crashed. For that guy, everything is fine, as long as the "elected" president says nice things. He does not care if the same "elected" president, who is not the president yet and only will be in 2 months' time, has the power of crashing the whole stocks index of the country with a few words, but that is too much a reality for him.
BMFBOVESPA:IBOVShort
by UnknownUnicorn14518531
2
Let the printing begin!!! LULAThe charts never lie. The Law of Large Numbers, by Jacob Bernoulli, defends that we can accurately predict an event when we utilise large numbers. This chart has a precise bull flag formation that has been forming way before the election results. Now we have the Brazilian people's decision, LULA has "won" and the left is back in power. From my point of view, it is a disastrous moment for the country, LULA has numerous cases of very, I mean, extensive systemic corruption in his back. Now he will have to deal with the current worldwide recession. The printing will be massive. This is the confirmation for the bull flag breakout.
Long
by UnknownUnicorn14518531
20
Brazil to enter the next round of the presidential electionEUR/USD ▶️ GBP/USD 🔼 AUD/USD 🔽 USD/CAD 🔼 XAU ▶️ WTI 🔽 A fine margin in the results has denied an outright victory in the Brazilian presidential election, both former and current presidents will go head to head in the next round. While the people are divided by their choice of leader, potential unrest lies ahead if the final result sparks controversies. As an oil producer and commodity exporter, this could further disrupt the global supply chain. WTI oil futures declined to $79.49 a barrel and just surged to $81.67. Despite experiencing considerable fluctuations, recession fears kept gold prices mostly steady at $1,660.98 an ounce. After rebounding from 0.9744, the Euro then closed to 0.9799 against the US dollar, and GBP/USD went higher to 1.116. Later today, both Germany and the UK will provide their manufacturing PMI readings for September, the market expects the manufacturing sectors would not change in terms of performance. Tomorrow morning, the Reserve Bank of Australia is going to announce its interest rate decision, current estimates anticipated a 50-basis point increase to 2.85%. Meanwhile, AUD/USD recovered from a low of 0.6397 to 0.6402, recording a loss of over 100 pips. USD/CAD closed at a high of 1.3826, and the US manufacturing PMI will be available early tomorrow. More information on Mitrade website.
by Mitrade_official
1