Long Emerging Markets as the World DeDollarization BloomsAll the empires and dynasties I studied rose and declined in a classic Big Cycle that has clear markers that allow us to see where we are in it.
This Big Cycle produces swings between
1) peaceful and prosperous periods of great creativity and productivity that raise living standards a lot and
2) depression, revolution, and war periods when there is a lot of fighting over wealth and power and a lot of destruction of wealth, life, and other things we cherish
Brazil
StoneCo (4H) - short term Bullcase // could it fill the GAP ?Hello traders (and some investors ?),
As you could notice, most of high-growth and tech stocks are in bear market for last several months.
While huge part of them formed abc corrective waves down. StoneCo formed impulsive wave (of 5 subwaves) DOWN =that´s not good sign because impulsive waves are never alone.
So my thesis how to play this stock is this.:
- You can see there is a GAP around 27-29usd which is around 0.238 retracement. (possible 140% gains).
Fundamentals:
-- there is huge risk, as it is Emerging market in Brazil.
- A lot of competitors(like NU bank) with much bigger backing (Berkshoire invested in both, also Softbank, ...)
++ StoneCo grow very fast in terms of AMU and revenue.
+/- management hired some advisors which could help to restruturalize business (and also increase expenses :( )...
+/- Stone aquired some businesses which was very good step, but I really dont understand why they bought stake in Banco inter (AT THE TOP !!) = seriously guys, they should consider hiring at least average trader / Technical analyst for this kind of aquisitions / investments...
+/- stock price correlates highly with other Groth/tech stocks (check my Fintech/ecommerce analysis ... seems like Stoneco correlates more with Chines market than SaP).
So fundamentally its 50/50 and depending on many variables = long term it could be nice investment if you are willing going to the moon or to zero....
Right now I´m not willing take so big risk to hold it forever, so my target is around 28 usd. if we form wave C of correction UP, I will sell everything and watch from side.
Take care, strade safe and enjoy the ride. ;)
STNE backed by Buffett, names executive from JPMorgan ChaseSTNE StoneCo is a Brazilian payment-technology firm backed by Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway.
STNE is down 90% from the peak they hit in February 2021.
After another earnings miss, StoneCo named new senior managers one of them being the head of treasury, Diego Salgado, a former JPMorgan Chase & Co. director for Latin America debt capital markets.
My take profit area is between 15.60 and 19 usd.
$EWZ Weekly Pivot Point - Trend is now upTrader Vic (Victor Sperandeo) says you gotta go long here !
By his "Principles of Professional Speculation" , EWZ weekly has broken down trend and pivoted to an up trend.
I'm also liking the volume and and MACD bullish confluence.
I went long starter size March 32/34 debit spread , and will add with more confirmation.
Some whale also bought 17K of these at $1.14 on Friday , let's see !
$BKF Long SetupI am looking at the $BKF (Brazil, Russia, India & China) ETF as a great setup for a buy.
From a charting perspective, it looks like the optimal risk / reward entry. In the macroeconomic context - I would also expect rising commodity prices to pull emerging markets higher.
More on this soon!
Take care and God bless.
Buy $BRZU - NRPicks 22 OctThe fund invests at least 80% of its net assets in financial instruments. It is designed to measure the performance of the large and mid-cap segments of the Brazilian equity market, covering approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization of Brazilian issuers.
BUY EZTC3 aiming pre-COVID levelsVery strong fundamentals. Home builder focused on resilient demand: premium real estate EV/EBTIDA <10, P/B <1, PE <9. Negative net debt (>R$1 billion net cash)!!! Excellent track record operating in unstable economy with ultra conservative cash/ leverage management. In spite of conservative approach to business, the company has a very solid growth history since the IPO in 2007.
Technicals: correction of 2016-2020 bull run seems to be over (or nearly so). Diverging MACD, RSI and OBV on touch of 2016-2020 trendline. Very attractive risk reward ratio on trade.
$PAGS: to make you BAGS?Today we are witnessing a sharp turn around in Emerging Markets $EEM after the Jackson Hole meeting. $IWM a strong indicator of risk tolerance has seen a sharp move back up into it's middle pivot. Could the continued low rate environment and strong economy be enough to continue the rush into risk-on assets? Keep a close eye on $EWZ though (Brazil ETF in which PAGS is located) to pin point entries. On the technical side of things, keep an eye on entries in between the two trend lines in which the current candle stick is located between and stops outside of the bottom two trendlines. I'd look to scale in over the next couple of weeks and see how strong the dips in $IWM, $HYG and $EEM are to see how much continuation is possible to the upside. Good luck traders!
Altamira Gold (ALTA) Unlocking ApiacasThis has been a superb ride since 2019.
In terms of the review, let's consider the following parts:
Altamira
Gold
Copper
↳ On the Altamira side...
Apiacas is the rainmaker, for context, after five years of waiting they were awarded this massive land package in the largest producer area in the belt. According to very good sources they have at least 1m/oz cooking here. Induced polarisation is already underway (this is where they pump a current through the rock and it comes back quicker if there are sulphates etc). For those who read the latest press release you will have seen very interesting readings there and positive signs, and with drilling starting this month drilling into 100-150m depth and they will look at gaging how far this goes down and start the next chapter.
We are +650% from the lows with both targets above cleared. A home-run for 2020 was the expectation, and a home-run was what was delivered from the Altamira Team. Very well done to those who " swung the bat " and are still holding from 4c/5c !!!
It ought to be known by everyone that is following the flows here that we have a final slingshot move cooking towards $2 in play over the coming Quarters. Highly recommend tracking 25c which is going to be STRONG support over the Summer, we look set for a quick test before a slingshot towards our final targets. For those asking about Gold (which I will come onto next) and if prices drop there, cost of production for these guys is around circa $500/oz, so it's irrelevant for the most part.
↳ On the Gold side...
We were tracking the highs in 2020 for Gold coming miles ahead of inflation, which is important, because the position only appears to be a temporary one, whereas in reality it can be opened up at any point via risk and further contractions in globalisation. This is true for almost 80% of private assets as we are witnessing a decisive move of capital from Public to Private markets.
All the cases of CPI overshoots just show that the function of Gold is not simply consisting of inflationary expectations, rather respective to confidence in the Public Sector. I would recommend looking to the work of Martin Armstrong - for those who have insomnia, a few pages of his work around inflation before bed time is the perfect cure.
After the test of $1,680 we successfully completed the 4th wave targets, before attempting a quick test of the highs in Wave 5, which was more skilfully rejected by sellers on the CPI overshoots. A very wide range is now in play which will be enough to take out the amateurs (and in some cases, masters too!!). For those wondering whether to start withdrawing troops, I will be updating a detailed Gold chart separately this week, as mentioned earlier, is really irrelevant from an Altamira perspective.
↳ On the Copper side...
Sure ok @ridethepig but why is Copper here and what does that have to do with anything?
Santa Helena is the third leg to the stool, this is where they have a lot of copper and other minerals. They have just put a lot of Subject Matter Experts (SME's) out there to put together the exploration program there to target the high grade gold veins, and secondly the copper source. This is also at Apiacas, I think there is probably a lot of Copper there too, will keep an ear to the ground there and keep this one updated.
The financing they have achieved is going to allow them to eventually spin off Apiacas and etc into different vehicles but not till we finish the moves in Copper. For those tracking the Copper chart, it is pulling back from the highs as widely expected. We are going to mark the Wave (4) lows somewhere around $3.30 in Q3 right on time for Santa Helena in Q4 for a move into $5.
Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming!
American currency most likely to appreciate against BRLIn this chart we can see the demand growing gradually, even finding a resistence in 5.85, this moving has formed a triangle, and when it break up the target will be in 6.89! The clear accumulation can preventing us from taking stops! By another way if we see a closure under the ascendent line the price will enter into a lateralization or even make a reversal! Good Trades! Thank you for your attention!
Trends in select Emerging Markets (& smaller markets) via ETFsRecent trends in select Emerging Markets (and some smaller markets) viewed by their ETFs, for the countries: Brazil EWZ , Mexico EWW , New Zealand ENZL , South Korea EWY , China MCHI , India INDA - also vs. the emerging markets ETF IEMG , and the NASDAQ IXIC index.