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Breadth

False Breakdown in the S&P 500 as Breadth ImprovesThe S&P 500 declined for pretty much all of September. But now it’s kicking off October with some potentially bullish activity. The first pattern on the chart is the false breakdown under the September 20 low of 4306. SPX spent about an hour below that level this morning before the bears cried uncle and prices reversed higher. Next, relative strength in the equal-weighted index (RSP) and small caps show breadth is improving. It’s also interesting that RSP made a higher low today, while SPX made a lower low. This suggests money is shifting away from the megacaps to more varied names –- a potential sign of increased risk appetite. Third, stochastics recently fell to their most oversold condition since October 2020. Fourth, SPX is bouncing at the 100-day simple moving average (SMA). This line also offered support at the last nadir of pessimism a year ago. Finally, sentiment is important because surveys have shown the most bearish readings since the election. A similar gloom appeared in October 2019 amid the trade dispute with China. Both moments represented lows for the market. Overall, risks clearly remain with yields rising, the Fed planning to taper and Congress still at loggerheads over the debt ceiling. But those concerns have been priced in (at least somewhat). And the next big catalyst -– earnings season in two weeks -- is more likely to be positive. TradeStation is a pioneer in the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more.
SP:SPXLong
by TradeStation
5
BreadthA lot going on here but basically market breadth is deteriorating. Less than 50% of stocks are now above their 200d & 50d moving average. Advance-Decline line and volume has been flat for months. We've never stayed in an uptrend when the McClellan Summation Index (bottom pane) is negative for this long.. Just seems insane to me that people are bullish rn. Idk maybe this time is different but in my mind market breadth indicators are telling us things ain't sweet. Can passive large cap fund flows and the fed help keep this thing in orbit forever?
AMEX:SPYShort
by fspn
Market Internals in troubleThe 2 most important internals we can measure are sentiment and breadth . Sentiment is going higher, but breadth is starting to show cracks. The are many breadth measures, including: McClellan Oscillator, advancers vs decliners, equal weights. Both had been holding up very well; however, the breadth is starting to show downtrends, suggesting we are due for a correction. I have been following a chart from an analyst at Schwab, which shows the correlation between 2009-2010 SPX chart VS the 2020-2021 SPX chart. And it has been following it CLOSELY. This chart also suggests we are due for a 8% correction (drawn in the chart). Let me know if you want the article, it is free on the Insight Schwab website. Always rely on your stop-exits. Volatility is growing higher.
SP:SPXShort
by dorfmanmaster
2
The Dark Side of the Zweig Breadth ThrustThe Zweig Breadth Thrust (ZBT) is an indicator developed by Martin Zweig. The indicator shows how quickly the New York Stock Exchange ratio of advancing (number of stocks with gains) and declining (number of stocks with losses) goes from poor to great. The underlying principle is that there is a rush of liquidity in the market that benefits a wide number of stocks and shows the beginning of a bull run. You can build the indicator by dividing ADVN (advancing issues) by ADCN+DECL (total issues) and multiply by 100. In other words the percentage of issues that are advancing. Then apply a 10-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) to this number. The indicator is oversold when it drops below 40% and is overbought when it goes above 61.5%. The "Thrust" occurs when it goes from oversold (below 40%) to oversold (over 61.5%) within a 10-day period. What does the Thrust mean? It is a leading indicator of a great bull run about to happen. There have only been 14 thrusts since 1945, but with an average of 24.6% gains in the next 11-12 months after the thrust! Great! So what's the dark side? Someone mentioned on fintwits a few weeks ago that the Zweig Breadth Thrust almost occurred, barely missed, but framed it as a bullish sign. By default, I'm a bull and love great news, but I also like to test assumptions. So I backtested this comment. What happens when the Zweig Breadth Thrust almost occurs, but does not occur. So I tested instances in historical data that the indicator went from oversold to almost overbought (above 60.59 within 10-days) but not above the threshold of 61.50. I played with the 60.59 to isolate to a reasonable number of cases for study. The indicator will at times go over the 61.50 a few days later, but does not do so within 10 days. On the chart, you have two views. The top is the indicator with two different colored circles. The white circles mark actual Zweig Breadth Thrusts. You can go look at those and see that they do in fact have huge gains over the next several months. The most recent was this year on May 21. We've all experienced the amazing gains that have occurred since that time. The yellow circles mark the times the indicator almost made it but backed off. The bottom chart is the NYSE composite index, taking into account the breadth of the market's gains and losses. The yellow lines correspond to the yellow circles in the indicator chart. You can see in most cases that there is a short pump from the increasing amount of advancing stocks. But overtime, the failed attempt at Thrust eventually results in a lower low. I find these types of things interesting. But don't overweight the estimate or the prediction. It's just another thought to chew on and balance with what else is going on. There is a tremendous amount of liquidity being created by government stimulus and the low bond yields. It's a very unique time historically in the market. So there could be more and more upside. At the same time, there's a lot of danger in that liquidity flowing into failing sectors that have no guarantee of turning positive in the near term. Eventually, the money comes back out, consolidating into a smaller breadth of areas and then eventually into alternative investments (if those become attractive).
A
by drewby4321
3
INDEX: VALUE LINE GEOMETRICThe Value Line Composite Index is a stock index containing approximately 1,675 companies from the NYSE, American Stock Exchange, Nasdaq, Toronto, and over-the-counter markets. The Value Line Composite Index has two forms: The Value Line Geometric Composite Index (the original equally weighted index) and the Value Line Arithmetic Composite Index (an index which mirrors changes if a portfolio held equal amounts of stock.) These indexes are typically published in the Value Line Investment Survey, created by Arnold Bernhard, the founder, and CEO of Value Line Inc. The Value Line Geometric Composite Index is the original index released, and launched on June 30, 1961. It is an equally weighted index using a geometric average. Because it is based on a geometric average the daily change is closest to the median stock price change. The daily price change of the Value Line Geometric Composite Index is found by multiplying the ratio of each stock's closing price to its previous closing price, and raising that result to the reciprocal of the total number of stocks. As market participants, we should be taking a scientific approach when putting money to work, always assuming our positions are wrong and need to prove themselves. As part of that process, one piece of evidence we want to look at on a consistent basis is the health of the overall market. One such way to gauge market health is studying market breadth. In other words, how many stocks are actually participating in any directional move. That's why we're writing today about an index you might not be aware of but should be familiar with. M timeframe BULL W timeframe BULL D timeframe BULL 2018 NEW ATH MACD M bullish momentum BULL 2009-2019 UPTREND TREND LINE ACTS AS SUPPORT VERTICAL GREEN LINES show previous moments in history where M MACD have advanced to the upside into positive territory and have gained bullish momentum BULL SUPPORT/RESISTANCE 1998,2007 resistance acts as support BULL FIBONACCI LEVELS act as support BULL IR CUTS -> RISK ON ASSETS APPRECIATION EXANTE is a broker for professionals. Direct access to over 50 financial markets through one account. Stocks & ETFs, Currencies, Metals, Futures , Options, Funds, Bonds, Crypto¬currencies. Any information contained on this website is provided to you for informational purposes only and should not be regarded as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investments or related services that may be referenced here. Investing in certain instruments, including stocks, options, futures , foreign currencies, and bonds involve a high level of risk. Single trading account Trade in 50+ markets in the US, Europe and Asia — from your all-in-one multicurrency account on any device exante.eu
VLong
by EXANTE-TOG
US Market Breadth Trend Analysis - Expecting Buy SoonThis chart is looking at the % of US Stocks Above their 50-Day Moving Average (ticker = MMFI), which is an excellent way to gauge market breadth and buy/sell entry areas. We have entered the buy zone on the weekly chart and the buy confirmation will be when the line on the price chart moves upward from this buy zone. This is not a good time to be going short, as the down move is nearly complete. Go short on the next entry into the sell zone (green line turning to red on the price chart). The lower indicators help to confirm and anticipate the signals. Leverage market breadth for timing stock trades that follow the overall market, which is most stocks. Always stay on the right side of the trend and maximize profits!
M
by Sasquatch_Trader
SPY (S&P 500 Looking Bullish going into tomorrow) - Snapshot of the Market Internals for July 18, 2016 - S&P 500 index was trading above it's 100-period simple moving average, which is a sign for positive price action - Breadth Ratio (UVOL to DVOL) was less-than stellar with volume flowing into securities increasing over volume flowing into securities decreasing at a ratio of less than 2.0x for a majority of the day for the NYSE. Typically for strong bullish days, you'd like to see a ratio of 2:1. - Net Advance/Decline line is above zero, illustrating that there are more advancing issues than declining issues on the NYSE. That being said, net advances are only at 800, which is below the threshold of 1000 securities. 1000 net advances would signal a strong bullish trend. Overall watching for the market to continue it's bullish momentum tomorrow, but hoping for more strength from the market internals tomorrow. If the market shows signs of weakness and the S&P index starts to see price trade below it's 100 period simple moving average, then watch the market internals to see if you should search for shorting opportunities. OVERALL SUMMARY: Look for long opportunities ONLY to stay with the majority of the market's movement.
AMEX:SPYLong
by TraderR0BERT