Breadth Indicators
PEPSIIII - Long Term Super Over Sold ConditionsThis play does not make the much sense to me via a fundamental perspective regarding the economic outlook of companies like PEPSI, Coke and $KO. But, from an investment standpoint, they control the food/drink market and have seen stagnant numbers and low growth regarding there products. Our new leader RFK Jr. in the food industry might start a complete overhaul of the products forcing these companies to rethink there targeted audiences/ marketing campaigns and adapt to this generations pallet.
Short term it needs to build more structure and a foundation, on the other hand watch out for a V shaped reversal in the coming weeks.
Target #1 - $155
Target #2 - $160
Target #3 - $170
Stop Loss - $140
Stay tuned for option position longs, I will personally be investing money in them as well.
Multiple Different Outcomes I Wanted to Share.I think its finally time for PLTR to seek some downside.
I put the four down move outcomes I think will happen and a few for upside peaks. We are stalling out on PLTR and the dont even get me started on the earnings/finacial side of the company versus its price.
Next weeks bear target is 75-70 and longer term is 60.
Bull case for this stock is 100. But I highly doubt it.
Heavy Volume Build Up! Little Double Dip?Seen in the volume profile levels to the left, there is a large volume displacements and price looks like it wants $110 this week.
High amounts of calls at the $110 strike expiring 1/10. Its only right lol.
Large volume on the $130 & $150 strikes expiring 1/17
Price targets:
#1
$110 by end of week
#2
$120
#3
$140
Big Bets Coming In, Negative Gamma Clusters Here We Come!I have been waiting to call this one for months. Predicted the downfall of MSTR and now I want a dead cat bounce or short term rally again.
After large positions and option contract plays are placed/bought, it can take time for the bottom to form and the price to move. I can see potential downside to $290-$289 and then we bounce ORRRRRR if we break through 290-289 with strong downside, next target is $262.
IF WE LOSE 290, its very very bad for the stock longer term.
First target is $320
Second target is $340
Meta: Tight Range at Old HighsMeta Platforms jumped last month and now some traders may see opportunity in its latest pullback.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the $595.94 level. It was the record closing price on October 4 and near the top of the range in subsequent weeks. META rallied above it in early December and retreated to hold the same range in the second half of last month. Has old resistance become new support?
The stabilization is also occurring near the 50-day simple moving average. That may reflect a bullish intermediate-term trend.
Third, the social-media giant ended Friday above its 21-day exponential moving average. That may reflect a bullish short-term trend.
Next, stochastics are turning up from an oversold condition.
Finally, shaded boxes mark two interesting weekly patterns. The December 23-27 period saw prices remain within the previous candle. That bullish “inside week” was followed by bullish “outside week” December 30-January 3. That could also suggest that buyers are gaining the upper hand.
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People sold for taxes. NOW, back to 100K before Jan 21stMy orange support lines held firmly, MSTR closed at my exact support yesterday and we are set up for a push higher before our new Pres takes office on the 21st.
Price target is 100K before 01/21/2025 and then an argument for a potential bearish head and shoulders is on the table. Which plays out perfectly because all of retail will be so hyped for trumps pro crypto administration, that bullish retail buying could trigger another pull back down.
Be ready for A LOT of whip saws and volatility. Buy the rumor and SELL THE NEWS.
Holy Cow, A lot of Big Option Purchases Coming In!First price target for January is $90 and it could happen soon.
Be careful as spike downs tend to have a lower low formed prior to reversal, this would create bullish divergence on RSI, MACD and more which is another to double down.
Options chain for calls expiring 1/10/2025 show the $90 strike has 1,522 calls bought on Friday at .87 per contract.
Not huge, bot overall the bias on NVO is buy the dip. long term target of well over 100
DJI Hits Weekly Support: What's Next? - Market Breadth AnalysisThe DJI has recently declined as previously predicted and has now completed a CHoCH (Change of Character), signaling a bearish trend. The index has reached a significant weekly support zone around the 42,500 level (🟩 marked by the green box).
So, what’s next? 🤔
Looking at the H1 chart, we notice some interesting market breadth outlook:
- US30 Market Breadth EMA20 Indicator:
The EMA histogram has shifted from 🟩 green to 🟨 yellow, indicating an increasing number of stocks with strong bullish momentum.
However, the height of the histogram (yellow) bars 📉 is decreasing, suggesting that the overall number of stocks with strong bullish momentum is also diminishing.
- Market Breadth MACD Indicator:
The 🔴 red line (representing strongly bearish stocks) is clearly declining, showing a reduction in the number of stocks with strong downward momentum.
Meanwhile, the 🔵 blue line is increasing significantly, suggesting that many stocks are reversing upward even within a bearish momentum.
The 🟢 green line, which represents strongly bullish stocks, is climbing but still lacks the strength to signal a decisive shift. A significant breakout would require the green line to rise further, confirming a stronger bullish momentum across a larger number of stocks.
- Market Breadth EMA Alignment:
The 🔴 red line crossed above the 🟢 green line quite some time ago and continues to widen. This suggests that a bullish crossover (green crossing above red) is unlikely in the near term. A confirmed bullish signal would require the green line to overtake the red line again.
- Summary:
While there are early signs of potential reversal, the bullish momentum is not yet strong enough to suggest a significant upward breakout. It’s crucial to monitor whether the 🟢 green line in the MACD and US30 Market Breadth EMA20 indicators can rise substantially, indicating a larger number of stocks gaining solid bullish momentum.
⚠️ Until then, the uptrend remains weak, and caution is warranted. While DJI might retest previous highs, breaking past those highs to form new all-time highs seems challenging at this point.
Strategy: Given the current conditions, it might be more advantageous to look for shorting opportunities. 📉
How to Identify Market Downtrends Without Fundamentals🔍 A Fundamental Perspective
On December 18, 2024, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing them to a range of 4.25%–4.5%. However, their guidance suggested a slower pace of rate cuts in 2025, with projections of only two reductions instead of four as previously expected.
This cautious stance, driven by lingering inflation concerns and a resilient labor market, triggered a sharp market sell-off. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) plummeted over 1,100 points, recording its steepest single-day drop since 1974.
🔍 Market Breadth: A Technical Perspective
If you’re not tracking fundamental events, Market Breadth indicators can offer valuable insights into market trends and the health of the index.
1️⃣ US30 Market Breadth EMA 20
The histogram bars in yellow reflect the number range of stocks in the DJIA with strong uptrends. Recently, the height of these bars has been steadily declining, signaling that fewer stocks are maintaining bullish trends.
2️⃣ Market Breadth MACD
Conversely, the red line of the MACD indicator, which represents stocks in a strong downtrend, has been rising. This divergence indicates that bearish momentum is building across the market.
3️⃣ Market Breadth EMA Alignment
The red line crossing above the green line in this indicator confirms a strong downtrend, providing additional evidence of bearish dominance.
📈 Price Action Analysis
The price has broken below the ascending channel, which further supports the bearish case. Combining this with signals from the Market Breadth indicators strengthens the probability of a sustained downtrend in the DJIA.
✅ Key Takeaway
By analyzing Market Breadth and combining technical indicators, you can gauge the market's strength even if you're not following the fundamentals. As DJIA breaks below critical technical levels, traders should exercise caution and watch for further confirmation of bearish trends.
Future Outlook with StochRSI and OBV
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I used TradingView's index chart to see the overall flow of BTC.
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(BTCUSD 1M chart)
OBV is showing an upward breakout of the High Line.
Accordingly, we should look at how the High Line is expressed when the candle of the next month is created.
The StochRSI indicator has risen above 50 points, and has changed to a state where StochRSI > StochRSI EMA.
Accordingly, we should look at whether it will maintain the current state and show an upward trend.
Looking at the movement of the indicators on the 1M chart, I think it is highly likely that the uptrend will continue.
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(1W chart)
There is some ambiguity in analyzing BTC due to the movement of the 1W chart.
The StochRSI indicator is maintained at the 100 point, and the StochRSI EMA indicator is approaching the 100 point.
As of now, the StochRSI EMA has never touched the 100 point.
Accordingly, I think the pressure for a decline is increasing as time goes by.
The OBV indicator has risen above the high line.
Accordingly, if a high line is created next week, we should see if it enters the high line.
If so, BTC is expected to show a downward trend.
However, the StochRSI and OBV indicators cannot tell the extent of the decline.
Therefore, if the decline begins, there is a possibility that the MS-Signal (M-Signal on the 1W chart) indicator will be touched.
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(1D chart)
BW(100) indicator is created at 101197.25.
Accordingly, in order to continue the uptrend, the price must rise above 101197.25 to maintain it.
The OBV indicator is near the high line.
Accordingly, when it rises above 101197.25, we need to see if the OBV indicator breaks through the high line upward.
The StochRSI indicator is below 50, and StochRSI < StochRSI EMA.
Accordingly, we need to see if it rises above 50 points and switches to a state where StochRSI > StochRSI EMA and is maintained.
If not, and BTC falls below 95961.82, there is a possibility that it will touch the M-Signal indicator on the 1W chart.
At this time, if the HA-Low indicator or BW(0) indicator is generated, then the important issue is whether there is support near that indicator.
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(BTCUSDT 1D chart)
After the volatility period around December 3, it is important to see whether the price can be maintained near the important support and resistance area of 95904.28-98892.0 until the next volatility period.
Therefore, the point to watch is whether it can reset the StochRSI indicator on the 1W chart while moving sideways unless it falls below 95904.28.
The key point is what I said on the BTCUSDT 1D chart.
If it rises above the BW(100) indicator point of 101109.59 and maintains the price, and if the StochRSI indicator rises above the 50 point and changes to the state of StochRSI > StochRSI EMA, there is a possibility that it will rise further.
However, as I mentioned earlier on the 1W chart, the StochRSI EMA indicator on the 1W chart is approaching the 100 point, so it will eventually show a downward trend.
As explained in the big picture below, the coin market is expected to maintain an upward trend until the end of 2025.
Therefore, I think that even if there is a short-term decline or a downward trend this time, it will eventually rise above the current price.
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Thank you for reading to the end. I hope you have a successful transaction.
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- Big picture
I used TradingView's INDEX chart to check the entire range of BTC.
(BTCUSD 12M chart)
Looking at the big picture, it seems to have been in an upward trend since 2015.
In other words, it is a pattern that maintains a 3-year upward trend and faces a 1-year downward trend.
Accordingly, the upward trend is expected to continue until 2025.
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(LOG chart)
Looking at the LOG chart, you can see that the upward trend is decreasing.
Accordingly, the 46K-48K range is expected to be a very important support and resistance range from a long-term perspective.
Therefore, I expect that we will not see prices below 44K-48K in the future.
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The Fibonacci ratio on the left is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2015.
That is, the Fibonacci ratio of the first wave of the uptrend.
The Fibonacci ratio on the right is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2019.
Therefore, this Fibonacci ratio is expected to be used until 2026.
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No matter what anyone says, the chart has already been created and is already moving.
It is up to you how to view and respond to it.
Since there is no support or resistance point when the ATH is updated, the Fibonacci ratio can be appropriately utilized.
However, although the Fibonacci ratio is useful for chart analysis, it is ambiguous to use it as a support and resistance role.
The reason is that the user must directly select the important selection points required to create the Fibonacci.
Therefore, it can be useful for chart analysis because it is expressed differently depending on how the user specifies the selection point, but it can be seen as ambiguous for use in trading strategies.
1st: 44234.54
2nd: 61383.23
3rd: 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (when overshooting)
4th: 134018.28
151166.97-157451.83 (when overshooting)
5th: 178910.15
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US30 Bullish Swing Setup Using Market Breadth EMA AlignmentKey Observations
✅ Support at Key Levels:
The price has approached the lower Bollinger Band (~44,579), a zone that historically attracts buyers. This area often signals oversold conditions and potential for a reversal.
✅ Market Breadth Confirmation:
Our proprietary Market Breadth EMA Alignment tool shows a stable bullish breadth value of 10 stocks, with bearish breadth limited to 5 stocks, suggesting that bullish momentum may resume soon.
✅ Candlestick Support Formation:
Recent candlesticks near the lower Bollinger Band indicate rejection of further downside, forming a potential support base for a short-term reversal.
Swing Trade Setup
Entry Plan:
Aggressive Entry: Enter near the lower Bollinger Band (~44,579) with tight risk management.
Conservative Entry: Enter long on a confirmed close above the mid-Bollinger Band (~44,634) for additional confirmation.
Profit Targets:
Target 1 (T1): Mid-Bollinger Band (~44,634).
Target 2 (T2): Upper Bollinger Band (~45,034).
Indicator Insight
This analysis uses the Market Breadth EMA Alignment tool to quantify bullish and bearish momentum across US30 components. By observing the alignment of bullish versus bearish stocks, traders gain additional insight into market sentiment.
Risk Disclaimer:
⚠️ This publication is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always trade responsibly and use appropriate risk management techniques.
Access to the Script:
This idea incorporates an invite-only script. If you’d like to learn more about the script’s functionality or request access, please message me directly.
US30 Bearish Reversal Signals Looming?The Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30) may be setting up for a potential pullback, as technical indicators signal weakening momentum.
Key Observations:
- The price has approached the upper Bollinger Band resistance (marked by circles in the chart).
Historically, such instances often coincide with price corrections or consolidation phases.
- Recent candles indicate hesitation, with bearish pressure emerging near critical resistance levels.
Indicator Confirmation:
- The Market Breadth EMA20 has dropped below 20, reflecting reduced market participation and signaling potential waning bullish momentum.
- The Dow's failure to sustain above the upper Bollinger Band, coupled with rejection candles, strengthens the case for a reversal.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risks effectively.
Avoid Betting at the Peak? Here's How Market Breadth HelpWe are Investic Lab, a quant-focused lab dedicated to designing tools that provide clients with actionable insights from quantitative data on global markets. Our tools offer a unique perspective by analyzing market data based on facts—not speculative price predictions.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
Key Takeaways:
✅ Quantitative Insights Over Predictions:
Our tools explore the concept of "Peaks" using data-driven approaches, offering a distinct advantage compared to traditional predictive models.
✅ Why Market Breadth and DJIA (US30)?
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30) serves as a leading indicator for our analysis. By examining market breadth, we aim to identify potential short-term bullish weaknesses.
Market Breadth Analysis: Understanding the Red-to-Yellow Zone Transition
📊 Timeframe: Daily (TF Day)
The transition from the Red Zone to the Yellow Zone signals a shift in market dynamics. This change represents 7 to 24 stocks moving above the 20-day EMA, indicating moderate market strength and the emergence of a positive trend.
🔍 Not Bearish, but Weakening Bullish Momentum:
While this transition does not imply bearish conditions, it often reflects short-term bullish weakness.
🎯 Opportunity at or Near the Peak:
We suggest adjusting your Risk/Reward (R/R) to 3:1 to take advantage of this phase, which may represent the peak or near-peak conditions for the short term.
📊 Timeframe: 15 Minutes (TF m15)
For aggressive traders monitoring intraday price movements, we recommend incorporating Bollinger Bands into your strategy. Focus on the average line of the Bollinger Bands, which can serve as a reliable reference for trade setups.
✅ Use the Average Line for Entry Decisions:
If you're experienced with Bollinger Bands, rely on the average line as your primary guide. Either, If you’re unsure about Bollinger Band parameters, substitute the 39-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) line for a clear trend-following signal.
Risk Management Reminder:
⚠️ Trading Against the Trend:
This strategy goes against the prevailing bullish market trend, which inherently carries more risk. If the price doesn’t move as expected, cut your losses and wait for the next trade setup.
💡 Opportunities Always Await:
Missed trades are part of the process. Stay disciplined—there will always be new opportunities ahead!
Dow Jones (US30) Market Breadth EMA20 AnalysisThe US30 Market Breadth Indicator EMA20 is an essential tool for assessing the participation of DJIA stocks in the current trend. It measures how many stocks are trading above their 20-day EMA, offering valuable insight into market breadth.
Current Market Breadth Overview:
🔴 RED Zone: The indicator currently shows 25-30 stocks above their 20-day EMA, signaling strong bullish breadth with most stocks participating in the upward trend.
📈 Over the past several bars, the histogram transitioned from yellow to red, indicating increasing bullish momentum as more stocks moved above their 20-day EMA.
Price Action & Breadth Convergence:
The US30 has been in a clear uptrend, recovering from lows around 42,846 and reaching a high of 44,807. Higher highs and higher lows support the bullish narrative, while the red histogram confirms broad participation across the DJIA stocks. This alignment suggests the rally is well-supported by market breadth.
How to Apply Market Breadth to Your Trading Strategy:
You can use Market Breadth to enhance your trading strategies by identifying the strength of trends and spotting potential reversals. For example, when the histogram is in the red zone, it supports bullish trend-following strategies, as it indicates broad market participation. However, if the histogram transitions from red to yellow, it suggests a decrease in the number of stocks above their 20-day EMA (from 25-30 to 7-24 stocks). This shift could signal weakening momentum and serve as an early warning to tighten stop-losses, take partial profits, or prepare for a potential pullback.
Integrating Market Breadth with price action allows you to fine-tune your entries and exits, improving risk management and strategy performance.
Trend Outlook:
🚀 The trend remains bullish, with the red histogram and higher price levels suggesting a continuation unless breadth weakens significantly.
⚠️ A shift from red to yellow is a potential warning sign of declining momentum, indicating caution is warranted.
Time for manufacturing companies to get paidmanufacturing companies for semi conductors showed a while ago that the direction of semi chip stocks was headed south.
Now, I see a great long term set up for the companies that actually make the parts. After these pop off with IWM soon, then mega cap stocks will see a push up.
Target 1 is $50
Target 2 is $55
May see a pull back right after this and then the rally
I don't think this will be left in the past...Well well well, Walgreen's is definitely going to try and redo there entire business model in order to save it.
There are some weird and unbalanced volume levels left behind that I think we will see again this year.
Target is $12 and depending on this earnings, I don't know when it will hit. Shares only.
SPY shows signs of topping outSPY hits all time high throwing multiple signals that the rally is coming to a close
Following long term trend, we see we are at same resistance as July hit before reversing
declining volume as recent rally continues gives a bearish signal
OBV remains flat while price hits higher highs through out September and October
We should expect to see a reversal in the near future. The best move to make right now is tighten up stop losses and keeping watching for more bearish signals.