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Breadth Indicators

SPX RALLY and NYSE ADV-DEC LINE showing MASSIVE DIVERGENCE !Following from my last two posts tonight (see links below) on the Elliot wave counts and divergence with CBOE Total Put-to-Call Ratios. This chart shows as the S&P Cash Index has rallied since the March lows each push upwards is accompanied by weaker and weaker breadth as the NYSE Advance-Decline Line keeps making lower highs. This is NOT the sign of an impulsive move higher about to make all-time-new-highs. In an impulsive move, we expect the 3rd wave to be the strongest most impulsive move with breadth rising as compared to wave 1 and then wave 5 showing a bearish divergence with highs and Advance-Decline making lower highs. Instead we see the strongest Adv-Dec points were early on in the rally and have been getting weaker and weaker as the rally has progressed. Fewer and fewer big tech names are what have been powering the S&P higher with less and less participation by the other S&P components. This is not a sign of a healthy new bull market rally but is a classic symptom of a poor bear market rally. The generals are leading but the soldiers are not following. This indicates the rally has limited time left and I believe its time is possibly up as of today. Cheers! Cyrus See below links to my previous posts tonight.
SP:SPXShort
by cyrusgr8
Stock Market Remains Bullish, Swing Trades AboundThe stock market, as indicated by the S&P 500 and the NYSE Advance-Decline (AD) line, remains strong. The NYSE AD pushed to new highs on June 8, while the S&P 500 remains below its high (February). This has historically been a very reliable indicator that the S&P 500 will also follow through to new highs over the next several months. A quick note on some other indicators (from bottom to top on chart below): -- AD line at new highs (already discussed). -- Market is stabilizing with fewer and fewer 2%+ movement days. Big movement is more characteristic of a bear market, not a bull market. This is one-day Rate of Change ( ROC ). -- Upside volume divided by total volume on the NYSE is constantly hitting 0.8 (80%). That tends to be more common in early stages of a major advance. Then, as the trend progresses, there tends to be more days under 80%. -- 73% of NYSE stocks are above their 50-day moving average (as of July 6 close). That means lots of uptrends and still lots of opportunities for swing trading on the long side.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by CoryMitchell-CMT
BTCUSD EMA Ribbion; OBV EMAs & VStopBTCUSD has once again slipped the EMA ribbon on the 12h, as well as a trendline which can now act as resistance. It is very possible that price action will have a failed break out attempt and get rejected by the blue trendline once again as shown by the hammer Further that, the OBV EMAS have crossed all bearish, with the 100 above the 20, above the 10, above the OBV. The OBV has no support from any of the EMAS. In addition, the OBV EMAS are divergent to the previous high, signaling exhaustion from the bulls. This is how bad the OBV situation is with just some simple pattern recognition, on the arithmetic chart. Further that, the new system I am looking at is suggesting a move to the downside as well. on the 12H we should have been short on volatility stops for a while and the 9Seasons rainbow is screaming reversal with red (bear) yellow (resistance) and light green (weak bull). The 9Seasons preponderance is bearish. Volatility stops on the daily have flipped bearish and are well above the trendline that i expect to act as resistance. The 9Seasons rainbow on the daily chart at most timeframes is signalling either strong resistance (yellow) or weak bull (light green). Log chart target settings are either blue falling trendline or black rising trendline. Please review the lined ideas if you want to see similar concepts at play.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by This_Guhy
1
Short NZDUSD Daily - Ot ForexFX:NZDUSD has recently rallied higher even though it is in a strong downtrend ( weekly lower lows ) . As indicated on the chart the weekly resistance and support levels. Price has reached and broken the first level on higher volume , but it has made a strong return to the downside when it reached the 0.5 Rib Retracement Line. Stop Loss can be set just above the First Resistance level with entries occurring just below and take profit targets should be set at the daily consolidation rectangle.
Short
by OT_Forex
USDJPY 108.30 RESISTANCEThe US dollar has continued its breakout rally against the Japanese yen currency as risk-on trading sentiment in broader financial market improves. The USDJPY pair will turn technically bullish over the medium-term if price moves above the 108.30 resistance level. Traders should note that a breakout above the 108.30 resistance level could cause the USDJPY pair to rally towards the 111.00 area. The USDJPY pair is only bearish while trading below the 107.30 level, key support is found at the 106.90 and 106.03 levels. The USDJPY pair is only bullish while trading above the 106.90 level, key resistance is found at the 108.30 and 109.00 levels. Do your own analysis ... Dont Forget Moving StopLoss At Breakeven Disclaimer! This post does not provide financial advice. It is for educational purposes only! You can use the information from the post to make your own trading plan for the market. You must do your own research and use it as the priority. Trading is risky, and it is not suitable for everyone. Only you can be responsible for your trading.
by tyleralee
Quickpost: SPY at the Weekly Bollinger BaselineThe Bollingerband traditionally has a lookback of 20 periods, and that coincides with a common moving average length of 20 (sometimes 21). SPY price action has gapped up and stopped right at that baseline, or the 20W SMA. This is very much a do or die circumstance for the market. If the baseline asserts itself as resistance we can expect a very painful recession. If somehow the baseline is confirmed as support we have the much promiced V shape recovery Below the prices action we have the OBV & EMAS. The OBV has been consolidating below the 100W, which isn't a good sign for the bulls, and the 20W is looking like it will cross the 100W bearishly. This is an extra-ordinarily bearish set of circumstances to play out.
AMEX:SPYShort
by This_Guhy
AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR / U.S. DOLLAR (AUDUSD) Monthly, Weekly, DailyDates in the future with the greatest probability for a price high or price low. The Djinn Predictive Indicators are simple mathematical equations. Once an equation is given to Siri the algorithm provides the future price swing date. Djinn Indicators work on all charts, for any asset category and in all time frames. Occasionally a Djinn Predictive Indicator will miss its prediction date by one candlestick. If multiple Djinn prediction dates are missed and are plowed through by same color Henikin Ashi candles the asset is being "reset". The "reset" is complete when Henikin Ashi candles are back in sync with Djinn price high or low prediction dates. One way the Djinn Indicator is used to enter and exit trades: For best results trade in the direction of the trend. The Linear Regression channel is used to determine trend direction. The Linear Regression is set at 2 -2 30. When a green Henikin Ashi candle intersects with the linear regression upper deviation line (green line) and both indicators intersect with a Djinn prediction date a sell is triggered. When a red Henikin Ashi candle intersects with the linear regression lower deviation line (red line) and both indicators intersect with a Djinn prediction date a buy is triggered. This trading strategy works on daily, weekly and Monthly Djinn Predictive charts. Trades made when the monthly, weekly and daily arrows are pointing in the same direction are the most profitable. This is not trading advice. Trade at your own risk.
by Dinjin
1
CANADIAN DOLLAR / SWISS FRANC (CADCHF) Monthly, Weekly, DailyDates in the future with the greatest probability for a price high or price low. The Djinn Predictive Indicators are simple mathematical equations. Once an equation is given to Siri the algorithm provides the future price swing date. Djinn Indicators work on all charts, for any asset category and in all time frames. Occasionally a Djinn Predictive Indicator will miss its prediction date by one candlestick. If multiple Djinn prediction dates are missed and are plowed through by same color Henikin Ashi candles the asset is being "reset". The "reset" is complete when Henikin Ashi candles are back in sync with Djinn price high or low prediction dates. One way the Djinn Indicator is used to enter and exit trades: For best results trade in the direction of the trend. The Linear Regression channel is used to determine trend direction. The Linear Regression is set at 2 -2 30. When a green Henikin Ashi candle intersects with the linear regression upper deviation line (green line) and both indicators intersect with a Djinn prediction date a sell is triggered. When a red Henikin Ashi candle intersects with the linear regression lower deviation line (red line) and both indicators intersect with a Djinn prediction date a buy is triggered. This trading strategy works on daily, weekly and Monthly Djinn Predictive charts. Trades made when the monthly, weekly and daily arrows are pointing in the same direction are the most profitable. This is not trading advice. Trade at your own risk.
by Dinjin
1
S&P 500: Risk On for a V-Shaped (or Upward Sloping W) RecovyI'm calling a new Bull market, and that was born on April 6, 2020 when the S&P 500 broke out from the downtrend channel of the COVID-19 black swan event. I went long on that day and have been happy with the results, and now after the indices have survived their first major test of the possible new lows into earnings season, it does appear to be a risk-on type of environment. I've made some money from the second wave off of late March's bottom, but I've had butterflies. I took some profits and spent some time reading the wind, and the last 2 weeks have been a major retest of the indexes as they were rangebound for a short term. Now that the S&P and others have broken out, it's risk on again for yours truly. I'm personally look at AMZN (they report earnings tomorrow) as the canary in the coal mine if this V-shaped bounce off the March 23 bottom isn't just a very hard bouncing cat, but I think even Schrodinger would have a hard time telling if this kitty was alive or dead. You decide that for yourself. The price has broken above the 50 day average and is beginning a retest of the 200 and 252 days avgs (I like the 252, it's the avg of the trailing twelve months) is narrowing some, but that's natural after the first successful retest of a baby bull. This first dip stayed below a threshold of 5%, so didn't even touch the lightest of hand's stop loss. Long term stochastics show it moving into an established movement, and we're likely to run until a retest at 3150 which would be the peak of the February 2020 bull trap. I plan to take profits near that zone depending as we approach the apex of the ascending triangle where we could have a pullback anywhere from another 5% all the way to 15% or more. RSI shows we're not yet overbought (it's still early in the up trend for that anyway), but keep your eyes peeled and be ready to act quickly on fast, large moving changes in the coming couple of weeks. Any shocks or melt ups will likely be news driven, and the larger they are, the hard they are likely to snap back toward the center of the new trend channel with some momentum.
AMEX:SPYLong
by chuckination
6
Comparing bear flags on the S&P 500.The left chart has our current set of circumstances on the 12H settings and the right has the previous bear flag on the 4H settings. As this move matures we will have to look at higher and higher time frames to determine which one is controlling. The rising red arrow shows on both MACD histograms shows classic bearish divergence between the indicator and price action. The purple arrows shows hidden bearish divergence about to rip this uptrend apart. The 4h chart had a clean cross of the MACD and signal line while the 12h chart shows a sloppier move. The blue fractal is a lot harder to see scrunched off to the left but an honest look at the MACD required such. The trend lines should be very similar. The resistance held for many bars and then the price action pulls away at the bollinger band. From there previous support turns to resistance and we get a rough double top formation. A second test of the bollinger band at this new resistance and the uptrend is over. And finally the volume situation is similar. These chars are the daily for the left chart and hourly for the right. The formations have falling volume generally and the OBV and OBV 10 and 20 are clearly under the 100 OBV EMA. A very bearish situation on price action and volume action. Please see the linked post for some target setting and broader context.
FOREXCOM:SPX500Short
by This_Guhy