Price Momo ReversalNEPT finally filled the gap to 2.98, the trendline held support, and it has been in a strong recovery ever since. DPMO crossed above signal line, RSX crossed above midline. The last three trading days, NEPT has been testing the downward trendline resistance that has been forming since September. Although "technically" the TTM squeeze did not fire, you can see the bands squeezing the keltner channel on the chart.
On watch for a breakout above the downward trendline resistance and Ichimoku cloud. I'm buying the breakout above 3.50.
Breadth Indicators
$SPY - Market Analysis and Game Plan Going Into The Week$SPY - still not seeing the strength I wanted to see in my watch-list last week. This is especially true in the smaller caps. Pre-Market gains are consistently getting faded off in the morning, making it tough for market open traders to see follow through on their momentum based gapper setups.
Some points for me going into the new week:
- Wait 10-minutes after market open to find the trend and wait for market to base out
- Refrain from trading small caps if possible, stick to higher priced names that are moving off earnings & PR news this week
- Be mindful everyday of $SPY gap's & volatility
- If market reverses, switch focus to TVIX & UVXY (inverse ETF's) to capitalize on the volatility and downside range of the market
- Patience, trade less (wait for A+ setups)
Have a great trading week everyone!
$SPY - Daily Chart Extreme Overbought & Parabolic Snapback Setup$SPY - our $283 level of resistance finally broke over with the market busting over and gapping up this week. Spy currently sitting at $288.26 at time of post. Highs of market are at $293.85. 7th green day in a row, constant gap ups making it hard to get day trades with market breadth sucked out before market opens. In individual names, I have been take about 30% less trades than normal. Longs my hold time is about 1/2 of what it was a few months ago. Always have to adapt and find the trend with market conditions.
$SPY - expecting a pullback sooner than later with stochastics now at 90.17. Market is due for a breather and pullback to at least 9ema, otherwise other notable level is $283 area again (for tap off support).
Have a great weekend coming up!
Rally Tomorrow?Last time the RSI-21 had a negative breakout outside of the Bollinger Bands, it resulted in a serious 1 day rally.
I'm in.
$SPY - $283 Level Stuff & Fade Into Weekend$SPY - from our analysis on the 18th, we talked about the $283 area being a key area of resistance. Bulls wanted a consolidation under this level to allow stochastics & pullback from bollinger band pinch. Still hanging out in this range going into next week.
Key support levels on watch - $280 (20MA Daily), $276 (200MA Daily).
Before we see a clear direction in either direction, we may see another week of consolidation.
$SPY - Daily Chart Analysis$SPY - after a strong rally from the pullback in the first week in March, we have now approached an overbought level under $283. Stochastic's are over 80 showing us overbought condition, along with a pinch of the upper bollinger band on the daily chart. We also have a thick area of resistance/buyers in the low $280's from the past 6 months of price action.
All of this indicates, for a bullish move, we want a consolidation under this $283 level, while the stochastic and bollinger bands catch up to price action. A basing action under this level should signify a daily breakout to highs again.
Bears are looking for either a gap up into resistance, for a pullback to support under $280, or a fade off the low $280's for a pull back to $260-$270's.
No direction made yet just a constant grind for the last week in the market. More and more intraday longs are getting faded, also signifying market weakness, or potential short-term reversal for bulls.
AMEX:SPY
WTI Long - TTM Squeeze SetupSqueeze has been on for 10 days. Momentum has flattened out and is now turning positive. RSX curving back up, crossed above mid-line. DPMO shows a false top and beginning of another bounce.
Look for confirmation by establishing support around 55.60. First PT is 59.64; second PT would be retracement to .618 fib level at 63.75. Of course, this squeeze could be scuttled by any number of macro factors (US-China trade deal news, EIA/API builds, a stop in OPEC cuts); but those same factors could also fuel a strong breakout if they are more positive than currently expected.
QUIK worth monitoring closelyIt appears that the Marketwatch article yesterday more than doubled the usual volume for this ticker. The 1W chart shows the following indicators that piqued my interest:
TTM squeeze on, any continuation this week would likely trigger a release.
RSX higher highs/higher lows and currently crossing mid-line, indicating there's room to run much higher despite yesterday's 30% gain.
Recent PMO crossover at approximately -10; the last time QUIK saw a PMO crossover at this level on the weekly chart was October 2016, where the price moved from ~0.75 to ~2.50 by early March 2017.
Although not visible on the 1W chart, there are three significant gaps above the current price that remain to be filled on the daily chart: 1.31-1.56, 2.48-2.90, and 3.78-4.01.
To reach the last two gaps, QUIK would first have to clear the strong resistance trendline dating beginning Feb. 2015; however, if it is able to breakout above this trendline, there's not much stopping a run-up to 3.00.
I'm not taking a position yet, but I will be watching for entry.
Disclaimer: This is only opinion. This is not investment advice. You are responsible for your own trades and conducting your own due diligence.
Update - 1W Chart Squeeze ReleaseSince my first post, PYDS climbed from 2.78 to 3.13, closed the week at 3.03.
I've done further analysis of the weekly chart and note the following:
breakout above the upper resistance trendline from 03/15 to 10/17
sustained support at SMA200 on 1W chart
PMO crossover and higher lows on last two cycles of PMO
The fib retracement on the left covers the downtrend from March 2015; the one on the right covers the uptrend from June 2017, which is the last wave of the PMO. After the spike in late 2017, we see a year's worth consolidation at the 0.786 level and a run to the 0.382 level on the uptrend fib.
On the downtrend fib, last week's candlestick climbed and closed at the .236 level; this past week's candlestick blew through the .236 and stopped at the .382
Lastly, the EMA20 and SMA50 are converging on the SMA200; meaning a golden cross may be on the horizon in the next few/several weeks
My interpretation: This breakout is not a fluke and will not be short-lived.
My bold prediction: PYDS breaks 3.82 before the end of February. If it holds 3.82, this may stagnate between there and 4.50. If it can climb and hold above 4.50, there's room to run to 5.50 with ease.
Disclaimer: This is only opinion. This is not investment advice. You are responsible for your own trades and conducting your own due diligence.
Update: TTM Squeeze FiredSince my last post, the squeeze has fired. If you caught my original post and followed it, you had the opportunity to get in at 10.8X. The uptrend is strong. MA crossover confirmed legit and confirmed breakout above old downward resistance trend line.
With WTIOIL sustained uptrend, USDP should easily close the gap from 12.00-12.75. The RSX has just crossed into overbought territory, so a pullback is possible. Any pullback would be a prime opportunity to load. Also, USDP just announced its FIFTEENTH consecutive quarterly dividend increase to 0.36 per unit. I'm not an income investor, so someone correct me if I'm wrong, but 0.36 x 4 quarters = 1.44; 1.44/11.55 = 12.47% annual dividend yield.
This is not a sexy stock pick, but I think it's a super-sneaky ticket to gainz. I got in at 10.85, so if I hold through the latter of ex-dividend date and the date the gap fills to 12.75, that's a 20.83% ROI. AND, the last time the MA crossover set up this well in 2016, USDP ran from sub-10.00 to 17.00-plus, from May 2016-Feb. 2017. My best guess is that patience will again be rewarded in 2019.
Disclaimer: This is only opinion. This is not investment advice. You are responsible for your own trades and conducting your own due diligence.
PYDS 1W Chart TTM Squeeze ReleaseNice weekly squeeze release. Watch for price targets of 4.00 and 6.50
China showing absolute & relative strength The iShares MSCI China ETF has not only broken out of its downtrend in absolute terms, it is also showing relative strength vs. the All Country World Index.
More of the useful statisticsOver the last 5 years, there have been 9 independent observations where the S&P 500 Stocks at 10-Day Highs Minus Lows crossed below the level of 300.
After 5 days, the S&P 500 returned an average of 0.97%, with the return being positive in 89% of the observations.
Tuesday 22nd >> Tuesday 29th
2-for-1 Bullish SetupThe daily chart offers two long setups with indicators firing almost simultaneously. On the top left, I hid the candles to display only the EMA20 (green), SMA50 (turquoise) and the SMA200 (red). You can see the price action on the top right chart with the TTM squeeze overlay included.
We've got a good old-fashioned SMA50/200 golden cross with support from the SMA200. MACD shows momentum trending upward again; the RSX indicates a strong positive trend but not yet overbought; and volatility has bottomed out and looks ready to bounce at just the right time.
The bottom line of the keltner channel is rapidly converging on the bottom BB, and the daily candles look ready to bust out of the top of the squeeze. Also, the A and C waves are positive and in agreement.
I'm going to wait on a market or limit buy in case this ricochets off the top band one more time for another wave of consolidation; however, to make sure I don't miss the boat, I'm setting a stop order to buy at 11.25. if you want to do the same thing and play more conservatively, you could set the stop at 11.50-11.60.
Weekly TTM Squeeze SetupSo, assuming this weekly candle holds up, ENPH has a really nice TTM momentum squeeze setup on the weekly chart. For comparison, the last time ENPH had a squeeze breakout like this was July 2014. Here's the chart:
Over the course of ten weeks, ENPH ran from sub 10.00 to a high of 18.00! Past performance in no way guarantees future results, but the point is that if you trade a a squeeze breakout on the weekly chart, you can really make some money. And the setups are very similar between July 2014 and January 2019; ADX below 20, RSX above the midline but below the oversold line with a strong upward direction. The RSX for the current setup is less oversold than the the start of the July 2014 breakout, so there's an argument that this one may have even more "juice" than that one.
I predicted we'd see 6.75 by the end of January and we hit it a couple of weeks earlier than I expected. I predict that this setup breaks 8.00 before the end of March.
Textbook TTM Squeeze SetupWe had tight squeeze, and yesterday's price action started rapidly expanding the Bollinger bands. Wave A and Wave C are both positive. ADX appears to have turned the corner so we should expect some increased volatility, and the trend tells us to expect that volatility to be positive based on the waves and the RSX. The RSX shows a clear upward curve, having just bounced off the mid-line, and the RSX shows clear "stair stepping" with higher highs and lower lows over last two cycles. I'm in at 1.642 with a target of 2.40. Will reevaluate trade if the daily candle breaks the green support trendline.
FPAY Squeeze UpdateThe spread has tightened up over last three trading days into an ascending triangle. Squeeze remains released on the daily chart with positive momentum.
On the 30-minute chart, TTM squeeze is on and should break one way or the other today. On Friday, asks in the mid-80s had dried up. The C-Wave looks pretty good on this one, so my guess is it breaks up today or tomorrow. Once this breaks 0.88 it should hit next resistance at 0.95 and then 1.08. These low floaters can give lots of false signals throughout the day. So long as the longs keep holding, the bids will eventually have to break resistance.
Expecting PR any day now for the December lease originations update.
FPAY TTM Squeeze LongIt's only mid-day, so the last candle hasn't closed yet, but it looks like we're on the verge of a TTM squeeze breakout. I'm in at .80. Needs to break .88 to really take off.
