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Breadth Indicators

Will Bitcoin's pop lead to a continuation upward?Good morning, traders. It is Columbus Day in the U.S. which means professional traders are enjoying a 3-day weekend so volume is lighter across all financial markets. This includes the crypto market. After another lackluster, sideways weekend, Bitcoin finally pushed up and through the resistance of the July triangle this morning. The question is, can price remain above the triangle now that it has done so? If so, then it would suggest that the TR (trading range) since October 3rd has been re-accumulation on the smaller TF (time frame) and this recent push up and out of it is an SOS (show of strength) off the LPS (last point of support). At this point, we would need to see a pennant/flag printing at the top of the TR where price is currently sitting. Failure to do so will suggest a likely drop below the bottom of the TR at $6510 and I will be looking for an initial bounce at $6450-$6466. Another leg up should find initial resistance at around $6740 which is the top of the next symmetrical triangle. Zooming out a bit to the 4H, we can see that price has continued printing a possible large ascending channel. I say "possible" because we have not seen four alternating touches of support and resistance to confirm that channel yet. However, as we can also see, the target based on the widest part of that triangle would be the top of the channel and that would give us our fourth touch which seems to suggest the likeliest price route. But until then, the ascending channel drawn as it is may or may not be true. RSI and MACD are bullish on most TFs and OBV continues to rise suggesting that smart money is still accumulating and, therefore, the price trend is legitimate. The daily pivot sits at $6700 which means a push up through the bottom of it, and subsequent close above, should indicate bullish momentum on that larger TF. The only real issue I have on all of this at the moment is that volume on the 1H is dropping even as price is making higher highs. We would need to see continued expansion of volume coinciding with the upward movement to alleviate this concern. That being said, the 4H TF volume on the current candle is closing in on the previous high candle's volume with another 2 hours remaining. Although price has continued playing out as it has, there still remains the possibility of a TS (terminal shakeout). That means that we could see price drop suddenly, below the corrective June low, at any time and pop back up just as quickly. Traders choosing to enter a position in this area, whether long or short, are increasing their risk exponentially, and much more than that if they are trading on margin. The latter combined with a TS will likely result in traders on both sides of the shakeout being liquidated. Remember, hard, sudden moves in this market tend to see the exchange Websites inaccessible and TPs (take profits) and SLs (stop losses) not firing.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
2
Bitcoin's triangles of demandGood morning, traders. Bitcoin spent the weekend moving sideways as suggested on Friday and we are nearing a likely large movement one way or the other. The question is, are you ready? Have you prepared for either move? Do you have a plan in place in case price moves against you? And what if it's a shakeout - strong move one way and then the other? These are the possible scenarios that you should be looking at right now. The reality is that two of these three scenarios are bullish - 1) a move up from here or 2) a shakeout (bear trap) that drops price, potentially below the June low, and then returns price to a higher level trapping shorts along the way. I'm not guaranteeing any move up, just reminding traders of the reality of this particular position that price is in at the moment since they have been caught up in the "price HAS to drop below $4800" mantra. Other than the large triangle patterns that we have been talking about for months now, we can also see that price is printing an ascending triangle on the 1H that began around 9/28 with the upper resistance around $6660/$6670. We can also see bullish divergence on the 4H MACD histogram from 9/29 at 11 p.m. CST noted by having higher lows in the histogram but lower lows in price, as well as the same building on the 4H from 9/19 with resistance around $6800. A breach of the former should set a price target of $6870 and creates a breach of the latter which, then, puts it at $7515. This pulls price out of all the various larger TF triangles creating a target in the mid-$9000s and simultaneously confirming the possible complex fulcrum. A move above $8500, of course confirms a bull trend. CMF continues to rise on the higher TFs, nearing a bullish cross of 0 on the 3D. Of greatest interest this morning is the 15 minute candle at 6 a.m. CST. We can see a significant rise in volume but price moved less than $40 and closed just 4$ lower than it opened. This was the largest volume on this TF that we have seen since 9/5 at 7:15 p.m. CST and, with it being such a small TR, indicates demand. The 4H also has its own symmetrical triangle printing within the possible larger ascending triangle which gives us a target of $7000 if it breaks up and $6150/$6200 if it breaks down. The latter would have it testing the diagonal support that began at the 8/13 low. OBV has continued to rise on the 4H even as price has consolidated which suggests that we may see price moving higher. Taking a quick look at the 1D shows price pushing up against the horizontal red line near $6625. This red line is the equilibrium of the 11/6/2017 weekly candle and has provided resistance/support throughout this corrective cycle. A push through that should send price upward as the noted patterns suggest. 1D RSI is bullish at 50 and MACD is nearing a bullish cross over the zero line. OBV shows a steady rise since 8/14 as it nears that ascending support line. Traders can also find a $14 gap on the 1D between 5/10 and 5/11, as well as a $26 gap between 1/15 and 1/16. These are gaps that will most likely be filled at some point. There are no similar price gaps below the current level. Finally, price is sitting on the 4H pivot and just below the 1D pivot. As a result of all of this, and the things we have been discussing for months now, I believe price bias remains bullish. This doesn't mean traders should just be throwing their money in long, however. They must still develop their trading plans, complete with confirmation levels and appropriate risk management. We never trade on opinions. Trading is borne of speculation, hence it is absolutely a game of risk management. If anyone tells you otherwise, run the other way.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
4
Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE): Resources are KINGI am very excited that the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) has been added to the TradingView data sources. This gives South African investors an opportunity to use the flexibility and ease of TV. As my first post I would like to highlight the performance of the Resources Sector. The South African economy was built on resources and has been under performing since 2008 (see chart below). But since 2016 this has changed and Resources are out performing the other sectors. The other sectors have also shown an upturn in August and with the Rand (ZAR) weakening on the back of emerging market jitters this could be a great Sector to find trades.
JSE:J200Long
by SteynTrade
My view to the A/D-Ratio and New Highs vs New Lows (for the DOW)Hello Traders, today I like to explain my view to the Advanced/Decline Ratio! How to calculate the Ratio--> --> No of advancing Stocks/No of declining Stocks divided No of adv Volume/No of decl. Volume =TRIN --> No of advancing Stocks divided No of declining Stocks= a/d-Ratio Normally you expect a rising No of Stocks anticipating a new advance, and the No of declining Stocks is less! Often the market did not give a clear view, so it is helpful to have an „Indicator“ to analyse the internal structure of the move! At Jan 26 the Dow Jones topped @26616.71 and declined `til Feb 09 to 23360.30 with a a/d-R@0.21! Before the DOW topped a divergence was to observe, well to see at chart by the a/d-Ratio, which was at 1.27 that day and the No of adv vs decl. No of Stocks! This gives you a warning that something was coming pretty soon. We know what followed. On Feb. 09 the a/d-Ratio was weak @ 0.21 while the No of decl. Stocks diverged to the data as of the high of Feb.07 (marked with the red arrows)! It signaled a possible end of the decline. The following days the Index „rallied“ back to 25800.35 on Feb. 27, which was near the 0.786 FibRT, but the a/d-Ratio was very weak @0.14 and the No of adv. Stocks failed either too, to make significant highs again! Even it is more to observe that the No of declining Stocks where still rising!! At this level it was clear to observe that the market was in „unhealthy“ conditions!! What followed was a decline to fresh new Lows at April 02 with an a/d-R@0.12 and the No of adv. Stocks where „bottoming“! The countertrend that started on April 03 made a high @24858.97 with a Ratio @ 3.48 and each following higher countertrend high was more less than the one before in terms of the Ratio(observe the chart)! And, the internal structure of the waves shows a choppy and overlapping structure! A „unhealthy“ behavior! It is even also to observe by using the „CoT“-Data, that traders confidence in a „new rise to new highs“ in the Dow Jones (by the Contracts of the e-mini Future) where still rising at lower prices! So the marked made a high at 25402.83 on June 11 and declined once again to 23997.21. The pullback since than is near the 0.786 RT of the decline, as it has been at the last measures too. An open taget is ~25102 for the DOW! At this point it is needed to observe the structure in terms of price, Ratio`s and looking for overbought conditions! Once the No of declining Stocks start to rise again, it will be interesting to see, what the DOW will do...! Hope that helps to explain my view to the market! Have a great week... ruebennase Fell free to ask anytime... Link to the Data of the CFTC Board (CoT Data)! insidercapital.com stockcharts.com
TVC:DJI
by ruebennase
2
NEO - new time to buy!NEO - Another possible buy point. Broke the wedge shown in my previous analysis and corrected back to the 78.6% fib. A new wedge has been formed as well as a possible triangle support, making this another decent buy point. Indicators are positioned well having shown bullish divergence a couple of days ago. You can see here the Bollinger Bands (2 st.dev in blue and 3 st.dev in red) are coming inside the Keltner Channels (1.5) - this squeeze implies an upcoming break out, although does not confirm direction. Watch for volume building as the price crosses the resistance line, and more so watch BTC as NEO will likely fall below the triangle into the larger wedge if BTC makes a larger movement.
Long
by Trader-Elisa
BTC - The Bullish Scenario to $11.5kThere's a lot going on on this chart, so don't worry, I'll explain it. You guys already know how bearish I am, and that I do believe BTC will hit the lower trend line of this triangle again and bounce before we hit $5k and bounce again. BUT, I'd be doing a disservice if I didn't consider this bullish view. I've been working with bullish scenarios and seeing which one is the most likely to occur. I think this one would be the best alternate to my bearish view (look at related articles). In short: Bullish View: 1) Currently bounce $9580 2) Drop to $8200 3) Next bull run to $11,543 What invalidates bullish view: 1) A drop below $7800 2) No break of the blue support line This means that we need to go lower to go as high as we want. A continuation of this downtrend is definitely of a higher probability as of now. Oddly enough, my bearish post (Does the BTC daily MACD Trend Continue) shows that we may bounce at the $8200 level before continuing the downtrend. Chart Explanation: Head and Shoulders: Right now we are working on a head and shoulders pattern, and if we break the blue support line, then the formation is valid and we will drop to the mid to low $8k range, specifically $8208. Williams %R: In a way, this indicator shows the strength of the trend along with peaks and valleys where we may need a pull back or bounce. Right now we've already broken the 50 line, which is a hint that we may continue this downtrend. IF it crosses the 80 line (at the bottom), then that is a bearish signal that the downtrend may continue. But if we stop before then, then thats a bullish signal that the uptrend may restart. OBV: The volume on this trend has been very low, and its an indication that we may fall back down (one reason why I'm bearish). However, there is a trendline here for this downtrend, and the OBV is showing room to continue upward to that downtrend line. We're getting bearish divergence all over the place on multiple indicators, so to me, that will be a hard task. Ichimoku Cloud: (Conservative Settings on the Ichi Cloud are being used) So, if you are unfamiliar with the Ichimoku clouds, its okay, its actually pretty simple. The Cloud itself can act as either a support or resistance. And the orange line (Kijun-sen) often acts as a support line. Well here's a strategy to the Ichi Clouds, when you close a candle inside the cloud, you can often target the other side of the cloud. Not only that, but when the opposing side of the cloud is flat like it is on the chart. It usually acts as a magnet, attracting the price to that point. These strategies don't always work, BUT, if we gain support at the Kijun-sen (orange line) and bounce, then that may be a good indication that we do head to the $11,500 target. Trend Lines: Right now we're in a big triangle. That white dotted resistance is going to be a tough one to break for now. along with that, the blue dotted resistance will be a tough one to break as well, especially if the support falls through. Right now, trend lines are working against BTC and it will be a hard task to reach $11,5k. Overall, like I've said, I'm bearish and I don't think this will play out. BUT, it is an option that we must consider, and there are enough supporting claims that this can happen.
KRAKEN:BTCUSD
by Elijah_Trading