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My view to the A/D-Ratio and New Highs vs New Lows (for the DOW)Hello Traders, today I like to explain my view to the Advanced/Decline Ratio! How to calculate the Ratio--> --> No of advancing Stocks/No of declining Stocks divided No of adv Volume/No of decl. Volume =TRIN --> No of advancing Stocks divided No of declining Stocks= a/d-Ratio Normally you expect a rising No of Stocks anticipating a new advance, and the No of declining Stocks is less! Often the market did not give a clear view, so it is helpful to have an „Indicator“ to analyse the internal structure of the move! At Jan 26 the Dow Jones topped @26616.71 and declined `til Feb 09 to 23360.30 with a a/d-R@0.21! Before the DOW topped a divergence was to observe, well to see at chart by the a/d-Ratio, which was at 1.27 that day and the No of adv vs decl. No of Stocks! This gives you a warning that something was coming pretty soon. We know what followed. On Feb. 09 the a/d-Ratio was weak @ 0.21 while the No of decl. Stocks diverged to the data as of the high of Feb.07 (marked with the red arrows)! It signaled a possible end of the decline. The following days the Index „rallied“ back to 25800.35 on Feb. 27, which was near the 0.786 FibRT, but the a/d-Ratio was very weak @0.14 and the No of adv. Stocks failed either too, to make significant highs again! Even it is more to observe that the No of declining Stocks where still rising!! At this level it was clear to observe that the market was in „unhealthy“ conditions!! What followed was a decline to fresh new Lows at April 02 with an a/d-R@0.12 and the No of adv. Stocks where „bottoming“! The countertrend that started on April 03 made a high @24858.97 with a Ratio @ 3.48 and each following higher countertrend high was more less than the one before in terms of the Ratio(observe the chart)! And, the internal structure of the waves shows a choppy and overlapping structure! A „unhealthy“ behavior! It is even also to observe by using the „CoT“-Data, that traders confidence in a „new rise to new highs“ in the Dow Jones (by the Contracts of the e-mini Future) where still rising at lower prices! So the marked made a high at 25402.83 on June 11 and declined once again to 23997.21. The pullback since than is near the 0.786 RT of the decline, as it has been at the last measures too. An open taget is ~25102 for the DOW! At this point it is needed to observe the structure in terms of price, Ratio`s and looking for overbought conditions! Once the No of declining Stocks start to rise again, it will be interesting to see, what the DOW will do...! Hope that helps to explain my view to the market! Have a great week... ruebennase Fell free to ask anytime... Link to the Data of the CFTC Board (CoT Data)! insidercapital.com stockcharts.com
TVC:DJI
by ruebennase
2
NEO - new time to buy!NEO - Another possible buy point. Broke the wedge shown in my previous analysis and corrected back to the 78.6% fib. A new wedge has been formed as well as a possible triangle support, making this another decent buy point. Indicators are positioned well having shown bullish divergence a couple of days ago. You can see here the Bollinger Bands (2 st.dev in blue and 3 st.dev in red) are coming inside the Keltner Channels (1.5) - this squeeze implies an upcoming break out, although does not confirm direction. Watch for volume building as the price crosses the resistance line, and more so watch BTC as NEO will likely fall below the triangle into the larger wedge if BTC makes a larger movement.
Long
by Trader-Elisa
BTC - The Bullish Scenario to $11.5kThere's a lot going on on this chart, so don't worry, I'll explain it. You guys already know how bearish I am, and that I do believe BTC will hit the lower trend line of this triangle again and bounce before we hit $5k and bounce again. BUT, I'd be doing a disservice if I didn't consider this bullish view. I've been working with bullish scenarios and seeing which one is the most likely to occur. I think this one would be the best alternate to my bearish view (look at related articles). In short: Bullish View: 1) Currently bounce $9580 2) Drop to $8200 3) Next bull run to $11,543 What invalidates bullish view: 1) A drop below $7800 2) No break of the blue support line This means that we need to go lower to go as high as we want. A continuation of this downtrend is definitely of a higher probability as of now. Oddly enough, my bearish post (Does the BTC daily MACD Trend Continue) shows that we may bounce at the $8200 level before continuing the downtrend. Chart Explanation: Head and Shoulders: Right now we are working on a head and shoulders pattern, and if we break the blue support line, then the formation is valid and we will drop to the mid to low $8k range, specifically $8208. Williams %R: In a way, this indicator shows the strength of the trend along with peaks and valleys where we may need a pull back or bounce. Right now we've already broken the 50 line, which is a hint that we may continue this downtrend. IF it crosses the 80 line (at the bottom), then that is a bearish signal that the downtrend may continue. But if we stop before then, then thats a bullish signal that the uptrend may restart. OBV: The volume on this trend has been very low, and its an indication that we may fall back down (one reason why I'm bearish). However, there is a trendline here for this downtrend, and the OBV is showing room to continue upward to that downtrend line. We're getting bearish divergence all over the place on multiple indicators, so to me, that will be a hard task. Ichimoku Cloud: (Conservative Settings on the Ichi Cloud are being used) So, if you are unfamiliar with the Ichimoku clouds, its okay, its actually pretty simple. The Cloud itself can act as either a support or resistance. And the orange line (Kijun-sen) often acts as a support line. Well here's a strategy to the Ichi Clouds, when you close a candle inside the cloud, you can often target the other side of the cloud. Not only that, but when the opposing side of the cloud is flat like it is on the chart. It usually acts as a magnet, attracting the price to that point. These strategies don't always work, BUT, if we gain support at the Kijun-sen (orange line) and bounce, then that may be a good indication that we do head to the $11,500 target. Trend Lines: Right now we're in a big triangle. That white dotted resistance is going to be a tough one to break for now. along with that, the blue dotted resistance will be a tough one to break as well, especially if the support falls through. Right now, trend lines are working against BTC and it will be a hard task to reach $11,5k. Overall, like I've said, I'm bearish and I don't think this will play out. BUT, it is an option that we must consider, and there are enough supporting claims that this can happen.
KRAKEN:BTCUSD
by Elijah_Trading
LITECOIN 15M SCALPING STRATEGYIf Bitcoin is the gold of cryptocurrencies, then Litecoin is the silver of cryptocurrencies. The only indicators you need are the following: On Balance Volume or the OBV – The OBV indicator is based on the idea that both the volume and the price activity are equally important. In this regard, the OBV combines both price and volume to show you the total amount of money going in and out of the Litecoin. The main idea behind the On Balance Volume indicator is that the Litecoin price will follow where the volume flow is going, volume precedes price! So, if Litecoin price is moving up, we want to see the OBV indicator rising signaling an inflow of money. Conversely, if the Litecoin price is moving down, we want to see the OBV indicator falling indicating an outflow of funds. We’ll also plot a 20-day moving average which it will be used to differentiate between what is normal volume activity and what it’s abnormal trading activity. The use of the 20-day moving average can also signal how severe the change in Litecoin price trend may be. Step #1: Wait for the OBV indicator to enter into a prolonged period of consolidation at the bottom of the window. In other words, what we look for is for the OBV indicator to spend some time in “oversold” territory. Technically the OBV doesn’t show overbought and oversold conditions in the market but, we only use these terms to describe the OBV location on the chart. The On Balance Volume indicator as the name suggests shows the volume activity, and when we see the OBV consolidating, usually this means the market is in accumulation process. But what is accumulation? Very simple, accumulation is the buying up of cryptocurrencies by the professionals. The buying it’s usually done in a manner that doesn’t attract attention on the price chart which is the reason why we use the OBV indicator to spot when the institutional buying happens. Step #2: Wait for a breakout above the OBV consolidation zone. When the professionals accumulate a cryptocurrency, it will usually trade sideways. The OBV indicator is the best indicator to outline when Litecoin is being accumulated. These ranges are deliberately created by the smart money to use fear and panic to shake out weak holders so they can grab as much of the available cryptocurrency at the lowest price. When all the available supply of a cryptocurrency is exhausted, then the smart money will mark up the Litecoin price or any other cryptocurrency. This process can be best visualized on the OBV indicator when we have a breakout above the consolidation zone created. The OBV indicator performs better if it’s used in conjunction with other indicators as well as your own judgment and common sense which brings us to the next step of our Litecoin strategy. Step #3: Buy Litecoin when we close above the 20-day Moving Average. We’re going to use the 20-day moving average indicator to confirm the OBV readings further. After the OBV indicator breaks above its consolidation and right away the Litecoin price breaks and closes above the 20-day moving average, we initiate a buy order. Step #4: Hide the Protective Stop Loss below the most important support level. Knowing where to place your protective stop loss is as important as knowing when to enter the market. That’s the way you manage risk! The best strategy to apply in this case is to place your protective stop loss below the most recent support level. If the smart money were really behind this move than the support level should hold. Otherwise, a break below will invalidate our market view, and we better be out of the market than fighting a losing trade. Step #5: Take Profit when Litecoin price closes below the 20-day Moving Average We take profits at the first sign that the market is about to reverse. When the litecoin price breaks and closes below the 20-day Moving average, that’s the most appropriate moment we want to take profits. Use the same rules for a SELL trade – but in reverse.
BITFINEX:LTCUSD
by Tradingstrategyguides
2
Reversal? Low Volume & Downtrend BUT ADX rising(-DI above +DI)..I would feel more confident if the ADX (black line) is above 20 but in a falling state. In this case it looks as if it increasing... My interpretation of Volume and Price: Volume Share Price Interpretation Decline Uptrend Bearish Decline Downtrend Bullish Increase Uptrend Bullish Increase Downtred Bearish What are your thoughts on GLBS ? How do you translate volume and price increase/decrease? If you have recommendations or tips - please, let me know below at the comment section. /Pat
NASDAQ:GLBS
by maga22