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Breadth Indicators

Opening QQQ Sep 15 Bear Call Spreadwww.tradingview.com Although QQQ tends to go its own way at times, it feels like a pause with the broader market. On the Chart The price has broken a long term rally and the same on On Balance Volume w ema. Both price and OBV are spending more time below shorter averages. Note the divergence OBV down when price up and now price looking to follow the volume down. I outlined the pennant on OBV it could be indicative of a change. Guess we will see which way :-). The bottom indicator is just a histogram of OBV - weighted moving average of OBV. I find it useful to help read possible volume related triggers. The histogram crosses zero when the OBV crosses the wma. This is neutral short as there is room for the price to go up and still profit. Position: short Sep 15 144 Call long sep 15 147 Call. This is a short (sold for net credit) vertical call aka bear call spread. Theta 1.85 - all else being equal this says the position will gain $1.85 per session through net decay in premium. (Premium drops, I buy it back for less = profit) max profit loss 113 / 187. Profit target is 50-55 approx 50%. The probability of making 50% is 74% so exiting there increases the win rate, reduces exposure and frees capital for other trades.
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by Tom1trader
SBUX time to slap the sleeping bear and run!SBUX has been dropping recently. But the stock seemed way oversold and people are tired of selling. I predict that the stock will rise couple(3% - 4%) percent BEFORE earnings. I am not sure about what happen right during/after earnings release. As you can see the MACD blue line starts to bend upward, in my opinion the price will rise a bit(but not home run) when MACD blue line crosses above orange line. This is confirmed by stochastic oscillator that it was in oversold region for a while. (Look at how beautiful those two stochastic upward lines are!) Moreover this price area is the peak of many smaller domes in the past months so this should be a strong support. What I am afraid of is On Balance Volume(OBV). OBV has a strong downtrend there is a risk that this stock continues to fall. I will put a stop loss somewhere but if you were to buy now please sell before earnings. In my opinion betting on earnings is like gambling, UNLESS you did a lot of coffee research.
NASDAQ:SBUXLong
by zhengster
4
Warning Signs In Precious Metals ( REPORT UPDATE ) 03/04/17Warning Signs In Precious Metals 03/April/2017 TAKE A LOOK>>>>>>>>>>>> Precious metals closed the first quarter with solid gains. Gold gained almost 9% while Silver gained 14%. The miners (GDX and GDXJ) gained the same amounts (9% and 14%) but unlike the metals which closed at their highs of the quarter, ended up losing more than half their gains. Despite a strong quarter, the entire complex remains below the February highs and 200-day moving average (ex Silver) just days after the US Dollar index rebounded strongly from its own 200-day moving average. As the second quarter begins, the warning signs for precious metals are mounting. It is never a good sign when Gold is the strongest part of the sector and especially while the sector trades below key moving averages. While Silver rests above its 200-day moving average and has recently outperformed Gold on a percentage basis, unlike Gold it has yet to reach its late February highs around $18.50. So in that respect Silver has lagged Gold. Meanwhile, the miners have not even come close to returning to their 200-day moving averages or February highs. They first reached their 200-day moving averages ahead of the metals and also began their correction first. Gold is the strongest part of the sector but we see evidence it could weaken during the start of the second quarter. Gold has already failed twice at its 200-day moving average and now it must contend with a rebound in the US Dollar index. Last week the greenback enjoyed a strong rebound off its rising 200-day moving average. Furthermore, note that since December the greenback retraced only 38% of its advance from 92 to nearly 104. The strongest trends will retrace usually 38% or 50% of previous gains. Finally, while Gold against foreign currencies (Gold/FC) is quite strong from a bird’s eye view, it is currently showing a negative divergence to Gold as it is below its late February high. If Gold/FC is weaker than Gold it means that Gold is more vulnerable than usual to a rising US Dollar. As the second quarter begins, there are critical warning signs for precious metals. The miners typically lead the metals and their recent failure to return to their 200-day moving averages and February highs is a bad omen for the metals. In addition, last week we covered the GDX advance decline line which is so weak it couldn’t even come close to its 50-day moving average. Meanwhile, the US Dollar’s strong rebound off its 200-day moving average will provide additional resistance to Gold. Given that Gold is currently the strongest part of the sector, that is not good for the entire sector. We expected 2017 to be a grind. Be patient and if precious metals turn lower, wait to buy bargains amid oversold conditions. We continue to look for high quality juniors that we can buy on weakness and hold into 2018.
FX:XAGUSD
by Rupesh003
Warning Signs In Precious Metals ( REPORT UPDATE ) 03/04/2017Warning Signs In Precious Metals 04/03/17 TAKE A LOOK>>>>>>>>>>>> Precious metals closed the first quarter with solid gains. Gold gained almost 9% while Silver gained 14%. The miners (GDX and GDXJ) gained the same amounts (9% and 14%) but unlike the metals which closed at their highs of the quarter, ended up losing more than half their gains. Despite a strong quarter, the entire complex remains below the February highs and 200-day moving average (ex Silver) just days after the US Dollar index rebounded strongly from its own 200-day moving average. As the second quarter begins, the warning signs for precious metals are mounting. It is never a good sign when Gold is the strongest part of the sector and especially while the sector trades below key moving averages. While Silver rests above its 200-day moving average and has recently outperformed Gold on a percentage basis, unlike Gold it has yet to reach its late February highs around $18.50. So in that respect Silver has lagged Gold. Meanwhile, the miners have not even come close to returning to their 200-day moving averages or February highs. They first reached their 200-day moving averages ahead of the metals and also began their correction first. Gold is the strongest part of the sector but we see evidence it could weaken during the start of the second quarter. Gold has already failed twice at its 200-day moving average and now it must contend with a rebound in the US Dollar index. Last week the greenback enjoyed a strong rebound off its rising 200-day moving average. Furthermore, note that since December the greenback retraced only 38% of its advance from 92 to nearly 104. The strongest trends will retrace usually 38% or 50% of previous gains. Finally, while Gold against foreign currencies (Gold/FC) is quite strong from a bird’s eye view, it is currently showing a negative divergence to Gold as it is below its late February high. If Gold/FC is weaker than Gold it means that Gold is more vulnerable than usual to a rising US Dollar. As the second quarter begins, there are critical warning signs for precious metals. The miners typically lead the metals and their recent failure to return to their 200-day moving averages and February highs is a bad omen for the metals. In addition, last week we covered the GDX advance decline line which is so weak it couldn’t even come close to its 50-day moving average. Meanwhile, the US Dollar’s strong rebound off its 200-day moving average will provide additional resistance to Gold. Given that Gold is currently the strongest part of the sector, that is not good for the entire sector. We expected 2017 to be a grind. Be patient and if precious metals turn lower, wait to buy bargains amid oversold conditions. We continue to look for high quality juniors that we can buy on weakness and hold into 2018.
FX:XAUUSD
by Rupesh003
BTC Gameplan for Coming WeeksJudging on volatility pattern, blow-off top in running volume pattern and possible liquidity shortage due to regulation issues in China, market conditions on bitcoin are changing. Knowing bitcoin history one can easily deduct that such conditions are going to be very attractive for acccumulating BTC as it is going to get a relatively cheap and even riskless asset. Looking at the chart one can see an obvious pattern that has already appeared a few times at this market and is likely to be forming right now as long as BTC is not fundamentally changing itself.
B
by zhsloe
2