Last SMCI update for a while.We LOST the orange EMA as support and now it will act as resistance in the short term. It will be an important key indicator if we are planning to flip the trend and go bullish. BUT this is a BEARISH signal as of now....
I will continue to hold swing puts on this and NVIDIA as I can smell weakness and war regarding Taiwan.
Breadth Indicators
MSFT Bullish Continuation out of a Cup and Handle LONGMSFT on the daily chart shows the price action in the bull run out of the Covid lows then a
cup and handle pattern is printed and finally bullish continuation above the level of the cup.
Since the cup has a height of $145 and the level of the lip of the cup is $345, the pattern
forecasts bullish continuation for $ 145 above the cup's lip at $ 345 and so targeting $ 480.
I will continue to add to my MSFT position while watching for pivot lows on the 120-240 minute
charts. MSFT is a major player in the AI space and could even launch its own semi-conductor
division to compete with NVDA and the others. It has a healthy balance sheet and free flowing
cash from which to grow without dependence on interest rates coming down. The RSI indicator
shows consistent strength without signs of being overbought.
Utility Buyers Getting GreedyUtility stocks have been on a tear recently. Just a few days ago, 93% of the stocks in the S&P Utilities Index were trading above their 200-day moving average, and now the breadth is deteriorating rapidly with just 80% of these constituents above their respective MAs.
After today's slide, it seems the line of least resistance is to the downside, at least in the short-term.
XNGUSD- Bollinger / TTM Squeeze for Breakout LONGThis 30 minute chart of spot natural gas demostrates the indicators triggering / signaling a big
move as it gets underway. I missed the big move catching the two smaller scalpes earlier in the
day. For me, this demonstrates the value of one or more of these indicators armed with an alert
or notification to catch the move once it gets started. It also shows the value of detecting a
Bollinger band width and volatility contraction before the release. Price action is showing
a high tight flag pattern which could forecast a similar leg higher after sufficient consolidation
to ti reach the consensus equilibrium of buyers and short sellers as to what the price should be.
I will be one of those buyers adding again to my position which I expect to swing trade
at least the rest of this week. For those already with good-sized positions, some may elect
to sell some to take a partial profit. I am considering being more watchful of such a situation
also realizing that a short squeeze could get underway since XNGUSD as been falling for
sometime. Long-time shorts might decide this is the exit point to avoid further loss of
unrealized profits. If they do so they play into the hand of new buyers and those holding.
Buckle up, this could get interesting.
Discover is Getting Bought By Capital OneCapital One made it seem like they were "partnering or buying" Discover but in reality, Capital One is bailing them out and trying to save them.
Discovering is going to fail unless capital one cleans up the debt and books, every person I know who had credit card debt has one of there cards hahahahaha.
We may see some misleading news that will make it pump short term but overall, put swings going into the summer 90+ days out doesn't seem like to bad of a move.
We can ALREADY SEE UNEMPLOYMENT RISING, WHAT HAPPENS WHEN AMERICANS CAN PAY THERE BILLS?!?!?!
Mixed Reviews In Market Direction🟡Breadth - Stocks Above 50 Day
🔴 AMEX:SPY Red Light
🟢 AMEX:IWM Green Light
🟢 TVC:VIX Green Light
🔴Leaders NASDAQ:NVDA NASDAQ:SMCI NYSE:CPNG
They are not leading but it's also feeling like there might be a changing of the guard or at least some of the guards? (New Leaders Emerge)
🟡Risk Appetite
🟢 NASDAQ:TSLA NASDAQ:DJT
🔴 NASDAQ:SOUN CRYPTOCAP:BTC
👆Feels like risk appetite is mixed but still there. Love to hear some others thoughts on that risk appetite.
BTC bitcoinbar chart array; I was looking at this the other day, two days ago, and noticed how solid the background is plus counting the fades there's only 5 out of 10. I also noticed unlike most cryptocurrency that follows through with the entire cycle before madness gains, Bitcoin does not necessarily follow that trend. Bar Chart Arrays are not finite technical indicators. They are more like broad perspectives at times when the main indicators become unusable, unreadable.
Seen this exact setup at previous major tops I have analyzed the SPX using 2 common indicators; i.e. RSI and breadth above 200d SMA. A very similar setup was seen just before the 2018 correction and the 2020 crash. This recent rally of past 5 months is bigger and more irrational than the previous two rallies. Thus, we should expect a bigger move down over the long-term.
SRF : For 6 -9 month swing trade SRF: Stock is now in uptrend
a triangle breakout possibility
stock broke trend line 1 as can be seen and this time it sustained above the same for a decent three-week interval
expect this momentum to continue for targets 2850-2880 and 3200 on the upside in next two to three quarters with accumulation zone of 2200-2500
with a stop below 2120 level
BITCOIN POTENTIAL CHANGE IN STRUCTURE (18h)Based on historical backtest of trade strategy.
18H BTC HEIKINASHI
If the candle closes at or above the indicated value of the purple line as shown,
typical trade is 23 bars with and average profit of 8.18%.
This would be a longer term/higher time frame change in structure for BITCOIN.
60k double bottom is still in uptrend. Lower time frames are consolidating, then higher.
Currently the price has traded into the the 66k zone, nearly confirmed in the 50% retracement of the Fib. from the 73.6k high. An 18hr buy signal would conclude 70-72k price targets and likely new all time high possibilities.
*** STILL PENDING AN 18HR CANDLE CLOSE ABOVE THE PURPLE LINE *****
Will update if / when the signal is initiated
feel free to message for signal settings
ALPN and VRTX may merge surge of bullish momentum LONGAlpine is a biotech stock that had an earnings report beating estimates two weeks ago. It
is now reaching for all-time highs. That said, it is burning cash just slowing down the burn.
Both revenue and earnings showed remarkable improvement as compared with the previous
quarter. The bullish momentum of price and volume is obvious on the weeky chart with
the print of a massive bullish engulfing candle. Another earnings report is
due in 4 weeks. In the meanwhile, the news catalyst is VRTX and ALPN may be merging.
www.tradingview.com /
I will take a risky long trade here with a stop loss at 50 and a profit first target
of 80 and the second at 90.
GOOG- a cup and handle in formation LONGGOOG on the daily time frame showa a cup and handle pattern beginning at the November 21
high from the uptrend out of the Covid "crash" Price has printed the cup and returned to the
same price level of about 150 ; A handle is forming now. The cup and handle pattern forecasts
a bullish continuation from that price level to the extent of the height of the cup. Accordingly,
this would be from about $ 150 to about $220.
Daily charts have high reliability as do cup and handle patterns. The RSI indicator shows
strength in the 50-60 range so GOOG has a long way to go before being overbought. .
Once price is over $ 150, I will initiate a position on GOOG shares and look to also take call
options striking $150 for late 2024 or 2025.
WULF a high volatility AI penny stock LONGWULF on a daily chart has room to run to a end of the year pivot high and the ATH of July 23
The relative trend indicator shows it rising out of of the chop zone and the RSI shows lines
popping over 50. My targets are 3.1 and 3.8 the red lines from the tweezer tops. PRice has
crossed the mean VWAP a bullish momentum stimulus. It is a cheap but risk way to take
an entry in a swing trade long on WULF and the AI subsector of technology. Upside is 50-75%
overall with a stop loss of 10% raised to break =even once price is 10% above entry and changed
to 5% trailing once price is over 25% above the entry. This is a low time and effort type of trade
meant to extract high profit relative to time/effort also with the use of alerts and notifications
to manage the trade.
This week is critical for ISPHThis week is critical for ISPH
Multi timeframe analysis weekly to 5 minutes
Analysis is based on Ichimoku, and Elliot waves. Confirmation is done by other indicators such as MACD, stochastic RSI, OBV, and RedK Everex.
Watch the video idea to have the full picture of the stock under analysis.
watch the video for more details
Disclaimer:
The Content is for informational purposes only, you should not construe any such information or other material as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.
There are risks associated with investing in stocks, and might involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Investors should note that past performance is not a guarantee of future returns. The investment value may be affected by market fluctuations.
The stocks mentioned here are not equivalent to, nor should it be treated as a substitute for, time deposit or any other form of saving deposits.
Investment in the securities of smaller companies can involve greater risk than is generally associated with investment in larger, more established companies that can result in significant capital losses.
TGL Fintech with a push discounted 96% from ATH LONGI am watching TGL for a short squeeze. A recent pivot high in the past year was about 37 and
the ATH of 168 was the winter and spring of late 2022 and early 2023. This is an app that
matches merchants and consumers with incentives to both to deal and make transactions.
I believe that it has been heavily shorted while in a persistent trend down. Relative strength
has been rising and the TTM triggering. A spike in relative volume was more than 50X. I have
taken a position and have an unrealized profit of 22% however, I expect more and will add to
the position given a dip from the high of 8 down to 6. For the time being the targets are 10.5
and 12, where I will take off 25% of the position at each level. IF TGL can squeeze and maintain
momentum over the weekend, next week could be a bigger move.
ORCL a preearnings SHORT TRADEORCL rose from its prior earnings which were not impressive. On the 180 minute chart,
price ascended to the second upper anchored VWAP band and dropped to the mean VWAP
band line in a standard Fibonacci retracement. Finally it turned upside and ascended to the
first anchored VWAP line. The POC line of the immediate volume profile of the past two
months is 113.9 and price is currently below it. RSI lines are near the 50 line and the green
faster line is below the red slower line. The predictive modeling algo shows a forecasted
regression line moving down on the approach to the earnings report after market close on
March 11th. My target on this short trade is 101 being the pivot low at the prior earnings of
December. This represents 10% downside. Accordingly, this is a one to three day trade covering
the earnings period and after seeking 10% in quick profit. The stop loss is set at 114 above the
near term POC line.
SOFI flat to slightly negative YTD LONGSOFIR showed here on the 30 -minue chart has had great volatility in going no where since
the start of the year. Volatility can be harnessed for profit. This is the essence of swing
trading. With an intermediate term anchored VWAP band and line setup, it can be readily
seen that price first was resisted by the second lower band line in purple then broke out
through the band lines to meet resistance at the second upper band line ( again in purple)
and broke down through the band lines to get support at the first lower band and then
reversed and returned to the second upper band where it was rejected and fell into the
support of the second lower band from which it is now bouncing. This is a VWAP band
oscillation pattern which can be traded. I will take a long trade of SOFI here, first
targeting the mean VWAP at 8.05 and then 8.6 below the first band and finally 9.05
below the second upper band. Partial closures at 25%, 50% and 25% respectively.
I see this as a way to exploit SOFI volatity in swing trade profits which can also setup as
short trades.
CELH in the AI subsector flies on Earnings- SHORTCELH on the 15 minute chart broke out from a decent earnings reprto and has been part of the
IA stock surge. Is it over-extended? Will it follow NVDA in a downtrend? Is this Icarus getting
too close to the sun? Yes, I think so. The company name is Celcius and it fits the Greek
mythological person and story well.
Yes I think CELH will correct. It's in the cards for a lot of its peers. CELH has been hugging
the second upper VWAP band as resistance for several days and is at the upper bounds of the
high volume area for the profile. The slower RSI line is above 50 but the faster line in green is
below that important level. The Luxalgo predictive model forecasting the linear regression
line shows a trend down. This is a regression to the mean concept playing out.
I will open a short trade targeting the evolving PCO line at 82 and then the mean anchored
VWAP line at 78.5. A stop loss of 91.35 kicks in if instead price moves into a high volume
area breakout which is considerably less probable.
TSLA makes progress in trend up LONGTSLA on the 120-minute time frame has finished off an inverse head and shoulders pattern with
the bottoms on January 26 February 6 and February 14 respectively. Price rose above the
neckline at 197 and appears to be trending to retest it. My target is 220 which is the 0.5 Fib
level of the prior immediate recent January trend down. The relative strength fast line
is dipping for a bounce off the 50 level horizontal line. The past RSI indicator shows much
improvement in strength. I will buy TSLA shares and options when price gets retraced to about
197 =/- 0.50. I expect this will happen on the next down general market day which could
be as early as the morning after this present holiday.