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Breadth Indicators

ORCL a preearnings SHORT TRADEORCL rose from its prior earnings which were not impressive. On the 180 minute chart, price ascended to the second upper anchored VWAP band and dropped to the mean VWAP band line in a standard Fibonacci retracement. Finally it turned upside and ascended to the first anchored VWAP line. The POC line of the immediate volume profile of the past two months is 113.9 and price is currently below it. RSI lines are near the 50 line and the green faster line is below the red slower line. The predictive modeling algo shows a forecasted regression line moving down on the approach to the earnings report after market close on March 11th. My target on this short trade is 101 being the pivot low at the prior earnings of December. This represents 10% downside. Accordingly, this is a one to three day trade covering the earnings period and after seeking 10% in quick profit. The stop loss is set at 114 above the near term POC line.
NYSE:ORCL
by AwesomeAvani
SOFI flat to slightly negative YTD LONGSOFIR showed here on the 30 -minue chart has had great volatility in going no where since the start of the year. Volatility can be harnessed for profit. This is the essence of swing trading. With an intermediate term anchored VWAP band and line setup, it can be readily seen that price first was resisted by the second lower band line in purple then broke out through the band lines to meet resistance at the second upper band line ( again in purple) and broke down through the band lines to get support at the first lower band and then reversed and returned to the second upper band where it was rejected and fell into the support of the second lower band from which it is now bouncing. This is a VWAP band oscillation pattern which can be traded. I will take a long trade of SOFI here, first targeting the mean VWAP at 8.05 and then 8.6 below the first band and finally 9.05 below the second upper band. Partial closures at 25%, 50% and 25% respectively. I see this as a way to exploit SOFI volatity in swing trade profits which can also setup as short trades.
NASDAQ:SOFILong
by AwesomeAvani
CELH in the AI subsector flies on Earnings- SHORTCELH on the 15 minute chart broke out from a decent earnings reprto and has been part of the IA stock surge. Is it over-extended? Will it follow NVDA in a downtrend? Is this Icarus getting too close to the sun? Yes, I think so. The company name is Celcius and it fits the Greek mythological person and story well. Yes I think CELH will correct. It's in the cards for a lot of its peers. CELH has been hugging the second upper VWAP band as resistance for several days and is at the upper bounds of the high volume area for the profile. The slower RSI line is above 50 but the faster line in green is below that important level. The Luxalgo predictive model forecasting the linear regression line shows a trend down. This is a regression to the mean concept playing out. I will open a short trade targeting the evolving PCO line at 82 and then the mean anchored VWAP line at 78.5. A stop loss of 91.35 kicks in if instead price moves into a high volume area breakout which is considerably less probable.
NASDAQ:CELHShort
by AwesomeAvani
2
TSLA makes progress in trend up LONGTSLA on the 120-minute time frame has finished off an inverse head and shoulders pattern with the bottoms on January 26 February 6 and February 14 respectively. Price rose above the neckline at 197 and appears to be trending to retest it. My target is 220 which is the 0.5 Fib level of the prior immediate recent January trend down. The relative strength fast line is dipping for a bounce off the 50 level horizontal line. The past RSI indicator shows much improvement in strength. I will buy TSLA shares and options when price gets retraced to about 197 =/- 0.50. I expect this will happen on the next down general market day which could be as early as the morning after this present holiday.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by AwesomeAvani
2
TSLA - Relative Strength compared with peers and others SHORTOn a daily chart, the price action of TSLA is shown to be in a descending channel. An indicator has been added to show the strength of various symbols as compared with QQQ the broad ETF tracking the NASDAQ 100. TSLA is doing very poorly but better than FSR and XPEV which are performing poorly but comparatively okay compared with TSLA. Of the symbols on this list which is customizable and is a comparison on a daily time frame back six months NVDA, AMD and META as well as NFLX are outperforming QQQ the most. I have used this to further validate my TSLA put options overall as I also look at other stocks that may be of interest based on six months of performance.
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by AwesomeAvani
2
QS rising into earnings has shown momentumon the 15- minute gaining 4.6% in the Monday trading. The chart shows price crossing through the high volume area from underneath it on Tuesday Feb 6th the breaking out from the upper boundary with a retest the following two mornings and then separation from the high volume area after that. Trading volumes have been consistent and constant with spikes after the morning opens. QS has some attention as both a technology stock and a green energy penny stock. I see this long trade as having a potential to go 10-15% if it beats the earnings forecasts. The dual time frame RSI indicator is used to pinpoint best entries especially if scalping or options trading. The best entry is on a lower time frame 3-5 minutes and the green faster RSI crossing over the slower red line and both being over the 50 level. Good luck to traders that take this trade.
NYSE:QSLong
by AwesomeAvani
Waste Management WM uptrending since prior earningsWM is impending earnings in the next trading day. It is a demonstration that there is money to be made in the efficient collection of garbage and recyclables On the daily chart, since the earnings beat, it has trended up through a high volume area breakout and a breakout across series of VWAP lines and bands anchored in the intermediate past. The volumes have been consistent. The RSI indicator shows both the lower and higher time frame lines above the 50 level since those earnings. I see this as an add to one of my investment portfolios as it is a relatively slow mover with dividends. On traders with long duration swing trades will pay attention to it. An options call trade in the lead up into earnings will mature on February 16th This is a blue chip stock; it does not get headlines it just works hard month in and month out. In my opinion, nothing is wrong with that.
NYSE:WMLong
by AwesomeAvani
QQQ and individual stock Relative Strength multi-time framesOn this 15-minute chart I have installed an indicator twice- to compare the relative strength of several symbols /stocks in its customization. One is set up for a 15-minute time going back 4 trading days while the other on the right 5 minutes with a lookback of only 30 minutes ( fully customizable). See comments in text boxes on the chart. I believe that this can be used to help find the best entries and exits for positions to complement other indicators. The setup on the right is best for intraday trades while that on the left could be used in swing trades. This could also be used to compare indices, commodities, or currency/forex on long and low time frames for a similar function.
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by AwesomeAvani
Bajai Auto.....Option trade ahead!?Hello Traders, today I`d like to share the chart of "Bajaj Auot Ltd"., an Indian stock, that has risen since 08/23 in an impulsive move! What caught my eye, is the fact, that the stock broke out to new highs on Friday, after a consolidation in a rectangle above 7419! If this brekout is succesful, the stock should advance to multiple new high`s in the coming days and weeks. Keep in mind, that a new ATH always is a new "buy-signal"! This opens the door to sell a "Short-put" at tomorrows opening, and you will take the premium at first! The next interesting fact is, the opportunity to set a close "stop-loss" @ 7210 or at the lower boundary of the rectangle @7032.15! Choose a expiry date (max at 6-10 days) and a price "in the money"! Check before if any financial news to follow in the coming days for this stock! If so, let the option end before the news! Let my know your thoughts about this trading-idea! I am always thankful for comments, critics and new ideas! Have a great week..... Ruebennase Please ask or comment as needed. Trading based on this analysis is at your own risk.
NSE:BAJAJ_AUTO
by ruebennase
General Market Direction - Lead LagIn these charts I show support and resistance levels for Mega Cap AMEX:XLG , S&P 500 AMEX:SPY , Mid Cap EGX:SPMD and Small Cap Stocks AMEX:SPSM . If the saying is true that some tides rise all waters we see that Mega Cap is leading the way and soon to follow should be the rest of the crew. This is what I am watching for in the markets today. If Mega Cap can not rise all waters then we have a problem. Just something to keep your eye on today and I appreciate any thoughts you have.
AMEX:SPYLong
by JoelTCampbellJr
ESH range 4740-4850 before Jan 2024Standard Disclaimers: I am not licensed through FINRA, SEC, nor any other authority. This observation and speculation may be completely erroneous. It is not intended as financial nor as trading advice. CME_MINI:ESH2024 1 hour timeframe looks 66% likely to trend into a golden cross today. If it continues supported by hopes of a smooth landing, it may rebound to 4850. However, I anticipate inflation to remain between 2.5%-5.5% throughout 2024 due to supply, shipping, and logistics challenges, and international trade laws, etc.
CME_MINI:ESH2024Long
by TaggM
#SPX #McClellanOscillator divergence finds bottom in SPXDid some work on breath indicators tonight and interesting how well the McClellan oscillator worked with divergence to find the bottom in the recent SPX sell off. From Investopedia: What Is the McClellan Oscillator? The McClellan Oscillator is a market breadth indicator that is based on the difference between the number of advancing and declining issues on a stock exchange, such as the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) or NASDAQ. The indicator is used to show strong shifts in sentiment in the indexes, called breadth thrusts. It also helps in analyzing the strength of an index trend via divergence or confirmation. What Does the McClellan Oscillator Tell You? The McClellan Oscillator is an indicator based on market breadth which technical analysts can use in conjunction with other technical tools to determine the overall state of the stock market and assess the strength of its current trend. Since the indicator is based on all the stocks in an exchange, it is compared to the price movements of indexes that reflect that exchange, or compared to major indexes such as the S&P 500. Positive and negative values indicate whether more stocks, on average, are advancing or declining. The indicator is positive when the 19-day EMA is above the 39-day EMA, and negative when the 19-day EMA is below the 39-day EMA. McClellan, S. (1989). Patterns for Profit: The McClellan Oscillator and Summation Index. Marian Publishing. A positive and rising indicator suggests that stocks on the exchange are being accumulated. A negative and falling indicator signals that stocks are being sold. Typically such action confirms the current trend in the index. Crossovers from positive to negative, or vice versa, may signal the trend has changed in the index or exchange being tracked. When the indicator makes a large move, typically of 100 points or more, from negative to positive territory, that is called a breadth thrust. It means a large number of stocks moved up after a bearish move. Since the stock market tends to rise over time, this a positive signal and may indicate that a bottom in the index is in and prices are heading higher overall. When index prices and the indicator are moving in different directions, then the current index trend may lack strength. Bullish divergence occurs when the oscillator is rising while the index is falling. This indicates the index could head higher soon since more stocks are starting to advance. Bearish divergence is when the index is rising and the indicator is falling. This means fewer stocks are keeping the advance going and prices may start to head lower.
SPREADEX:SPXLong
by MarcoOlevano
Breadth-Based Momentum Swing Strategy/Trend IndicatorThis is an interesting strategy. From my little bit of back-testing, RSP seems to work best just because it is a breadth indicator. Seems to work better in more volatile times with bigger moves. Daily timeframe only. Basically, tracks overbought and oversold conditions but can signal momentum shifts and trend. Looking for long trades above, short trades below. Don't use it alone, use it in confluence with your TA. 3 Major components: - RSP (SP500 Equal Weight Index) - S5TW ticker added to chart (SP500 % of stocks above 20MA) - Ripster EMA cloud Indicator setup: - Add S5TW Line Chart as an indicator in a separate pane - Apply EMA cloud to S5TW (9 ShortEMA1 and 21 LongEMA1, disable all others) - Set both scales to Regular (will set to % automatically) - Add two horizontal lines at 85 and 15, these indicate overbought and oversold levels (you can do 80/20 or 90/10 as well) You technically could just buy/sell the EMA crosses, but your entry will not be optimal. There are three things you want to look for when a reversal is happening: - Bull cross: 1. Price to cross over EMA cloud definitively (MINIMUM 2 candles) 2. Higher high on S5TW, higher low after for confirmation (HH and over 2 days above should be good enough) 3. Move across the 50% midpoint - Bear cross: 1. Price to cross below EMA cloud definitively (MINIMUM 2 candles) 2. Lower low on S5TW, lower high after for confirmation (LL and over 2 days below should be good enough) 3. Move across the 50% midpoint After the reversal, you can take three approaches to exiting: - Exit once overbought/oversold - Exit with trailing stop or to price target - Exit with opposite reversal This back-test used the exit with opposite reversal strategy. The max drawdown from this small sample size of back-testing is just under 3%, but every trade ended up winning. - 100% win-rate out of sample of 11 trades. - Average move is 6% - Smallest is 0.42% - Highest is over 11%. Gonna be fun to track this.
AMEX:RSP
by taylorbray
1
Key Technical Indicators Signal Downside Potential for S&P 500The market has recently exhibited a series of bearish indications, suggesting potential further downside for the SPX: Price Action: The market gapped down after September 20th and hasn't recovered those levels. Short-Term Moving Averages: The 50-day moving average recently crossed below the 21-day, indicating a potential short-term downtrend. Moreover, the price struggled to move back above the 50-day level. Diverging Moving Averages: While the 21 and 50-day averages tilt downward, the longer 150 and 200-day averages remain bullish, suggesting a potential trend shift. Critical Level Breach: The SPX closed below its 200-day SMA, a traditionally bearish signal. Key Bearish Indicators: TRIN: Indicates more volume with declining stocks. TICK: Levels between -1000 to -1300 signal a bearish sentiment, hinting at institutional selling. VIX: A 66% rise in the past week reflects increasing market uncertainty. Prediction: Given these indicators, it seems probable that the SPX might not rebound off its 200-day SMA in the short term. There's potential for it to breach significant support levels, including S2 and the 1 Year anchored VWAP.
SP:SPXShort
by dburgos0127
2
S&P Double TopHistory and Introduction Everyone in the market today remembers broadly the financial response to C19. It We see it every time that we look at the price chart and we see the spike down and the V recovery. What a lot of people may not remember is the investigation into SoftBank for essentially causing a short squeeze by use of call options and gamma hedging. When that news story came out my long term assumption was we would be returning to the C19 low and that has informed every idea I have put out since then. News story www.investmentwatchblog.com An Explain Like I am 5 From Reddit When you write a call as a seller you essentially take a short position against the stock delta wise When SoftBank bought loads of calls that were out of the money then the writers had large negative delta positions against these tech stocks. One common way to offset a negative delta is you can hedge with owning shares to offset the negative position from the calls you write. As the calls were heavily wrote then shares were added to offset risk which contributed towards momentum. As the stock positions were entered it drove up price of stock which put those out of the money options closer to the money leading to more share purchases while SoftBank continued to purchase more and more calls leading to an increased share price between delta hedging and general market momentum. Someone can correct me if I’m off but that’s my broad description www.reddit.com Essentially when that news story came out I, personally, understood all these gains were unsustainable and were going to be given back. This was in addition to all of the other stimulus spending that was going on. There was still gains to be made or lost speculating in swing trading but my ultimate goal was to not buy the top and not to sell bottoms. Main Chart Analysis The main chart has been left pretty simple. We have the Gaussian Channel on top and we can see that in the 70s there were two points in time investors or traders got to buy below the gaussian channel. Fortunes could be made by buying below the channel and merely selling above the guassian channel. Loading up on dividend stocks would have also been very prudent. We can also see the opportunity came again in the 2000s. We can also see in purple the tops where the ADX has been at 20 or below. The 70s dip had the low ADX but the 2000s did not. It is not a necessary condition that the ADX be low for price to go below the gaussian channel, but it is suggestive that with the current low monthly ADX we have a fair shot of getting there. We also see that similar to the 1970s the ADX has been declining over each high for over the last decade. Not a good set of circumstances to be in. The right side of the chart shows the double top itself without any indicators and on the weekly time frame. As it stands right now it looks like a “lower high” double top but price could rally up 17% from the current level and this idea is still valid. The last top took over 300 days to develop and start to sell off to create the valley low. We can still have a significant amount of sideways as bulls get exhausted. Double Tops Double tops are suppose to have a flat base before the uptrend begins and then return to the flat base per Bulkowski, who is broadly considered to have written one of the modern trading “bibles.” www.thepatternsite.com The chart below shows what I consider the flat base to be. The fib draw on the double top does get us right into that range. Another thing to remember is that we don’t need to see an impulse that looks strait down. It is quite probable that price action takes out the valley low and then rally to test previous support as resistance. Here is an example of a double top on bitcoin from the 2018 bear market. The 4-hour chart provides the detail of a double top that developed over 25 days from the time the began to top to rejection oat previous support. So, not only could price action go sideways for some 300 days as the second half of the double top is created, but once price sells off we could spend considerable time in a suckers rally as price returns to previous support and tests it as resistance. Quarter Chart Long term, we have a chance to buy in the quarterly gaussian channel. This would require significant sidewise-ish or channel-ish price action for a decade. Dow Theory Basic Dow theory on bull markets has three phases, accumulation (smart money), public participation, and excess. From there we enter distribution, public participation, and panic. One tenant of Dow theory is indices must confirm one another. www.investopedia.com My linked idea will show that I thought that NDX would have a bull trap. That idea has been invalidated because rather than forming a classic bull trap NDX is likewise in a double top. But having both NDX and SPX in a topping formation suggests that we are in distribution. Since we are talking about Dow theory lets look at the DJI. T Guess what? he Dow looks like it is in a double top as well. Having all three indices appear to be topping within 5 percent of previous ATH is pretty bad. NASDAQ/S&P Since the Nasdaq is more volatile than the S&P we can look for bearishness in the NDX/SPX pair to see broader bearishness in the market. I am personally staying away from the Nasdaq as an investment as possible until it reaches its own double top target against the S&P. Crypto Assets Since I believe the SPX is a index that could be topping for over 300 days and having several consolidations on the way down I would expect some assts to go crazy as investors rotate and individual assets have blow off tops. I expect some massive rallies with some select cryptos and then a lot of despair. A lot of movement can happen in crypto over the lifespan of this idea. Here is bitcoin. What is the traditional target of a rising wedge? The beginning of the wedge. And there is no guarantee that bitcoin will set a higher high. If it does I am selling and probably never returning. Conclusion As someone who thinks the United States have been off sound money since the creation of the Federal Reserve I see all of this as the consequences of late-stage socialism. Subsidies to support government initiatives, transfer payments, bloated public services, debasement of the money supply all lead to public excess in the stock market. The United States as been more resilient than a lot of other countries in warding off the pernicious influence of socialist actors but once the Federal Reserve was created the ultimate conclusion was clear, it was just a matter of timing. Of course, due to inherent theory and model failure of most socialists they don’t realize it is the socialist policies that got the market here. Just like most don’t realize we are in distribution. The distribution phase can take a long time and I expect to be ignoring a lot of news. It’s a distraction. I am going to make the trades and investments as I see them. The main chart focuses on what happened to the SPX in two bear markets, one in the 70s and another in the 2000s. What happened to sound money (precious metals) in the 70s and 2000? Quite simply they went crazy. What happened to the Gold/SPX ratio? They reached muti-decades lows. If the SPX is topping then I would expect to see a massive upside pattern on gold. And I do. There is a cup and handle or ascending triangle. Based on that the time for me to rotate back into the S&P generally would be when the SPX/Gold ratio hits a double bottom from the low of 2011 Likewise with Silver and the S&P I think it is a decent time to take my kids to the precious metals store.
SP:SPXShort
by This_Guhy
17