Get started

Breadth Indicators

Overbought weekly RSI with (daily) divergence in OBV and RSI14As the two mentioned indicators confirm each other AND the weekly RSI is also overbought I risk a little short position. Nevertheless, market could move higher anytime so I would only risk 1% with this first trade. If there is a new a high and I get stoped out I would risk another position if there are signs of weaknesses. If the short plays out well I would try to make the trade even bigger! ;) Caution: Trade against mid- and long-term trend! Stop-loss is beeing moved closer if there is a chance. :)
NASDAQ:MSFTShort
by suissedivergence
1
BTC is going to be Bullish? Ichimoku & EMA say so .typo correction ***EMA500=> EMA200*** ***EMA200=> EMA 50*** IMHO, we are going to change the trend to bullish. 29000-31000 are retested several times and too much strong to be broken since there are too much buy order.... we need to reach 35000 USDT to ensure the Bullish market is started. Golden Cross (in 4Hrs TF) would happen by End of July. That's very good news although i am waiting to see Golden cross in daily chart during August end or September beginning. Strong Supports & resistances are defined by completed lines. weak Supports & resistances are defined by Dashed lines. *****Please comment and let me know your idea**** Thanks :)
Long
by HamedMaleki
3
Potential 10% or 20% MARKET CORRECTION sooner than we think...Hi guys this is my first time taking a deeper look into economies and their correction cycles so please forgive me if there are a few things I'm missing. I have mainly been a fundamental long-term stock investor for the past 6 years. However, over the past 2, I've taken a liking to chart technical analysis. So if you have any constructive feedback I'd actually appreciate it. Today I'm looking at the SPCFD:SPX Brad's Confidence Meter: ★★★☆☆ Chart Key: Wave 1 = 2018 correction Wave 3 = COVID-19 event Wave 5 = Possible 2021 correction Blue Pin = S&P 500's average correction range (1.84 YEARS) Looking at the chart… You can see that I have a drawn an Elliot Wave. It is clear that waves 1 and 3 were definitely impulsive waves therefore I believe we might be seeing the top of our next impulsive wave 5 in the coming month. Furthermore, one of the main points I would like to make is that typically when a Breadth Indicator is rising and the stock index is rising, it shows there is strong participation in the price rise. This means the price rise is more likely to sustain itself. However, in this case, we can see the breadth indicator and the index going in opposite directions (a divergence), which may be a big warning sign for a major reversal. Beyond the chart... History suggests that a correction is about due. With the average correction being every 1.84 years. Even though markets don’t always adhere to averages we can still look at this range as a blueprint. The S&P 500’s Shiller P/E ratio is 37.99. Well and truly above the index’s mean of 16.84. US inflation rates are at highs that haven't been seen since before the crash in 2008. The Fed will soon have to reign it in and increase its lending rates to decrease inflation. Margin debt is peaking at all-time highs. Historically there has been a spike in margin debt before extended bear runs in this last century. As dark as this prediction may seem it is not all gloomy clouds ahead. I look forward to seeing this play out as corrections bring new opportunities to make greater wealth. Not financial advice. Be safe and good luck! ~ ~ ~ Relevant links for support. www.marketwatch.com qz.com www.multpl.com
SP:SPX
by dekudekudeku
Potential 10% or 20% MARKET CORRECTION sooner than we think...Hi guys this is my first time taking a deeper look into Economies and their correction cycles so please forgive me if there are a few things I'm missing. I have mainly been a fundamental long-term stock investor for the past 6 years. However, over the past 2, I've taken a liking to chart Technical Analysis. So if you have any constructive feedback I'd actually appreciate it. Brad's Confidence Meter: ★★★☆☆ Looking at the chart… You can see that I have a drawn an Elliot Wave. It is clear that waves 1 and 3 were definitely impulsive waves therefore I believe we might be seeing the top of our next impulsive wave 5 in the coming month. Furthermore, one of the main points I would like to make is that typically when a Breadth Indicator is rising and the stock index is rising, it shows there is strong participation in the price rise. This means the price rise is more likely to sustain itself. However, in this case, we can see the breadth indicator and the index going in opposite directions (a divergence), which may be a big warning sign for a major reversal. Beyond the chart... History suggests that a correction is about due. With the average correction being every 1.84 years. Even though markets don’t always adhere to averages we can still look at this range as a blueprint. The S&P 500’s Shiller P/E ratio is 37.99. Well and truly above the index’s mean of 16.84. US Inflation rates are at highs that haven't been seen since before the crash in 2008. The Fed will soon have to reign it in and increase its lending rates to decrease inflation. Margin debt is peaking at all-time highs. Historically there has been a spike in margin debt before extended bear runs in this last century. As dark as this prediction may seem it is not all gloomy clouds ahead. I look forward to seeing this play out as corrections bring new opportunities to make greater wealth. Not financial advice. Be safe and good luck! ~ ~ ~ Relevant links for support www.marketwatch.com qz.com www.multpl.com
FRED:SP500
by dekudekudeku
7
Price Action Similarities between the NASDAQ and BitcoinThere is a lot on the main chart but lets go through it directly: Both had a parabolic run up and Over 80% corrections Both Created a W pattern with a higher low around the 0.236 retracement level from the height to initial low BTC intermediate high stalled at the 0.786 while NDX intermediate high was around the lower 0.500 (not shown on chart). Consequentially NDX did not show the same bullishness and perhaps that is why the subsequent uptrend was not as impulsive Both Stalled briefly at the previous high (the 1 level) BTC had a very neat consolidation at the 1.271 and 1.414 levels level while NDX showed a lot of chop BTC entered a clear distribution at the 1.618 Level Forecasting The primary supposition based on this chart is that NDX will enter a technical distribution pattern as BTC did and this process can take a long time. Below is a scenario that I could see replay. Previous resistance gets turned into support and then sets up the trendline of the bull trap. You can see this al over the place when parabolic moves end and there is a fair chance we will see it again. The time measurement on the chart shows from the time the price broke free of resistance until the bull trap was in. We may run into a lot of the same narratives with NDX as we did with BTC. People expecting a blw off top like the 00 bubble pop. Or "Printer go brrrrrr" type analysis. Side Rant It is sadly impressive how people can develop for themselves a system to determine their bias in trading whether to go long or short on a time frame but still get completely torn up and don't get the message. Below is a very important chart for NDX and if you follow me even somewhat closely the system should be recognizable. There is the VSTOP, the VSTOP X3 timeframe, the 20W and the MACD. When the VSTOP, MTF VSTOP and 20M are all below price action it is a clear sign that the macro trend is bullish. You should be taking longs and taking profits. To be honest I took some calls on SQQQ that paid well and some that did not during the last couple of months and it really wasn't worth the stress so I stopped. To continue that point I have seen lots of crypto traders on Youtube or Trading view that had systems that the have appeared to abandon. They were going to be bearish if BTC slipped the 21 EMA or the 20w SMA.... And now they are bullish again somehow despite price action still being below the moving average. Traders that clearly saw the 2018 descending triangle cannot see the head and shoulders. People that used MA cross overs to determine bias have abandoned that, people that use the cloud have abandoned that because they are stuck on a bullish bias even after their systems tell them not to. Same with cloud traders. The cloud for bitcoin is flipped bearish on the daily or three daily and these traders are looking to go long on the 4h chart. Madness. Back to the analysis Since NDX is at a major target level this could be where a trader or investor decides to rotate some of their portfolio out of growth stocks. Into what I recommend anything as I am not a financial advisor. In this system you would not contemplate going short without a clear distribution pattern on the weekly timeframe that could take months or until the VSTOP flipped and then you would short into strength. Once the MACD crosses and price is below all the indicators it is a full multi-year bear market. If (and that is still a big if) we do flip the monthly to a bearish bias the target for the next major consolidation is the 200 month EMA/SMA. Conclusion It is a "big if" if I am correct in several ways. It may take a month or so for this to get shorted out and lots of people may get surprised by an upward trust after distribution. I can see a lot of people getting torn up because they take shorts too soon, or get timed out of their option calls. Relief rallies can blow a bunch of shorter out of the water.
TVC:NDQShort
by This_Guhy
7
Eurusd buy uptrend The currency pair is trading in the support zone of the price channel . The trend support is strong enough, the last three tests were rejected by the rebound. Now, on retest, the price rolls back to the nearest resistance, upon breakdown of which and consolidation above this level of 1.1842, it activates purchases. The key point to which the price can reach, if the trend does not break - resistance 1.217 ——————— ❗️10 / 11 last EURUSD ideas come TRUE ❗️ ✅EURUSD №1 ✅EURUSD №7 ✅EURUSD №2 ✅EURUSD №8 ✅EURUSD №3 ✅EURUSD №9 ✅EURUSD №4 ❌EURUSD №10 ✅EURUSD №5 ✅EURUSD №11 ✅EURUSD №6 ———————
Long
by fxpremiere
Bitcoin: Buying the dip sub $16,000Predictions (TLDR the analysis): The 400d EMA will eventually fail as support The 20 Month SMA will be tested and fail as support The Monthly Keltner Channel will act as support (with wicking very probable) at about 15k 3-5 year target is 160k with chance of over-performance Main Chart Bitcoin continues to chop sideways and cause a lot of people a lot of pain through all the uncertainty and difficulty in finding a good trade entry. Big picture I still think BTC is entering a bear market. We may bounce up or down and we could have a head and shoulders here or we could have a double top over there but ultimately the easiest trade understand but perhaps the hardest to do is to buy the bottom of the monthly Keltner channel. The chart covers almost a decade of price action BTC and the pattern so far is very clear, price action runs up parabolically out of the Keltner channel and when it slips the 400 day EMA as support price action proceeds until it the Keltner Channel can act as support. There has been a lot of hope that this will resemble 2013 and there will be a quick consolidation and then a quick pump to the upside and that would mean that the price action should continue to find support here on the 400D EMA. I don't see that happening based on the volatility stop. I will link an idea that predicted the bear market based on the weekly VSTOP and SMA analysis but below we will be addressing the monthly. Volatility Stop Analysis There is a very low probability of the 400 maintaining support as the monthly VSTOP and MTF VSTOPx3 are primed bearish. The chart below shows we have broken flipped the monthly VSTOP last period and we are about to flip the MTFx3 after confirming a close below $46.6. The natural conclusion based on history is that the 20 month SMA will fail as support and we test the bottom of the monthly Keltner. Just a reminder that the VSTOP and Keltner are based on the Average true range, a very useful base calculation that I recommend traders at least experiment with. Below is the BLX chart with the 15 day KC and we first focus on 2011. The data here was to young to have a monthly chart and so that is why we are using a lower timeframe. Once again the KC is found as support on the Keltner channel on the highest timeframe that makes sense, the half month chart. We are also working on closing our third candle body within this 15 day KC and this price action resembles the tops at 2011, 2014, 2018 and 2019. It does not look similar to the top of 2013. Elliot Wave Analysis One of the main sticking points for some people is they people don't think that BTC can trade within its previous all time high. That opinion should be to be disregarded because it is is not based on any technical fundamentals whatsoever. The most clear reason why not is in a Elliot wave theory a 12345 wave by default the corrective ABC wave goes within wave 4. Below is a Elliot wave count off of the BLX data that looks heck'n valid. The targets, probably a bout 3-5 years off, is pretty wild as well and will be shown in the fibs section below. Just think 100x is back on the table in 3-5 years. Here is a key point, a ABC correction completes wave 1-2 and sets up wave 3, which by definition cannot be the shortest wave and often is the longest (commodities sometimes wave 5 is the longest). Here are a series of if then comments. If I am correct then BTC is competing a wave 5 and will see an ABC correction. Very likely to the bottom of the Keltner channel. IF that happens then are set up for wave 3. Fibs The most natural fibs we could look for are the 1.618 or 2.618 retracement levels from the top to the bottom of the correction which would put a major stall at either one of those levels, and a potential impulse move between those levels. These are the levels I think most wider time frame traders will be looking at for their long shot. The exact placement of the fibs will require some patience for this move to play out so we know where the exact low will be to do the target setting. This is where I approximate the 160k stall. Here is another example of why the 1.618 is a very important fib retracement: the last cycle ATH to the low. There are people who are saying that this top was unexpected or perhaps premature. That could not be further from the case. This was a classic 1.618 extension from high to low. Given the power of this chart you should remember it and consider it may remain very predictive in the future. This last chart is mostly for funsies. It is a fib extension off of the original 1-2 wave and because the way fib levels and waves interrelate somehow it hella call the high here at the 1.272 level. Very curious. We also see the 1 level acted as strong support twice in the 2017-18 bear market. Since this is a longer shot I don't know how to interpret this yet and it is something for me to ponder. We don't know which of these levels may be stiff resistance and which will be support on retracements but his is something to bear in mind. Perhaps the golden pocket will be the next major top in 10 years. Final Thoughts If you find someone considering a bear market of less than 70% you have to realize they have no historical basis for that call. The calls of "this time will be different" so far still apply as an error in thinking until we have a bear market that is less than 70%. My long term call, while technically based, still is on the shallow end of btc bear markets. You can consider a bear market by your own criteria but for me now we are out of the early stages of btc lifespan it will be below the VSTOP and MTF VSTOP on the weekly for transition and below the 20w confirms. It will take a lot to surpass that triple resistance. If you see the Monthly VSTOP and MTF and 20 month SMA confirmed bearish then you best consider that we are bearish and consider a dip buying strategy
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by This_Guhy
7
VINO low float longI am still long vino from 3.40s. Holding for 2-3x VINO 40 for 1 split on nasdaq uplist 7.5M float Insane levels of accumulation. Tumin Stone Capital is the offering buyer (owned by 3i) Offering due to close anyday now...been seeing huge institutional block buys coming in over the last few weeks. You looking for the next low float banger that is severely undervalued? This is probably you're best bet. Be careful of your risk sizing especially if you can't catch a dip. The spread is very wide most of the time....20c or more at times. Use precaution as obviously low floats can be very volatile. I have a sell order at $6, then $8, then the rest at $10. Goodluck.
NASDAQ:VINOLong
by Todoubled23
7
Bitcoin (BTC) • Let's do some On Balance Volume analysis Bitcoin want to test higher but volumes overall still looking very weak to be considered bullish. Swaps keep trading back and forward but futures still remain relatively flat with normalised premiums (that is good). Funding rates currently favouring shorts as price mark up. Overall feel pretty neutral leaning bearish (even if we mark up to test 45k range). Daily and Weekly timeframes look ugly. I want to see volumes and some other strong signals coming out of futures to be more convinced that we found a bottom. At the moment I am not convinced. In this video I focus on the analysis of the On Balance Volume (OBV) indicator.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by D7R
5
Ethereum Unlikely to Break Out Above 3000.00The latest bullish pullback on ETHUSD entails excellent opportunities for contrarian trading. After having tested the 23.6% Fibonacci on two separate occasions, the price is currently probing the 38.2% Fibonacci. The descending trend line (in red) is currently threading very close to this major resistance, which in itself presupposes a likely reversal. Moreover, it is worth pointing out that the Ichimoku Cloud Indicator underpins persisting bearish bias in the market. The price has reached the upper boundary of the Cloud, which is converging with the trend line and the psychologically significant resistance at 3000.00. When all of these factors are considered in conjunction with each other, a bearish correction from 3000.00 seems highly probable. From there, ETHUSD is likely to drop to the 23.6% Fibonacci for a third time.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDShort
by Trendsharks