CEI Long IdeaOBV showing a wide discrepency vs spot. I am long here looking for a move possibly to .70s in the short term. Stop below the daily range its been in. Size appropriately.
Breadth Indicators
VINO low float longI am still long vino from 3.40s. Holding for 2-3x
VINO
40 for 1 split on nasdaq uplist 7.5M float
Insane levels of accumulation.
Tumin Stone Capital is the offering buyer (owned by 3i)
Offering due to close anyday now...been seeing huge institutional block buys coming in over the last few weeks. You looking for the next low float banger that is severely undervalued? This is probably you're best bet.
Be careful of your risk sizing especially if you can't catch a dip. The spread is very wide most of the time....20c or more at times. Use precaution as obviously low floats can be very volatile.
I have a sell order at $6, then $8, then the rest at $10.
Goodluck.
Bitcoin (BTC) • Let's do some On Balance Volume analysis Bitcoin want to test higher but volumes overall still looking very weak to be considered bullish.
Swaps keep trading back and forward but futures still remain relatively flat with normalised premiums (that is good).
Funding rates currently favouring shorts as price mark up.
Overall feel pretty neutral leaning bearish (even if we mark up to test 45k range). Daily and Weekly timeframes look ugly.
I want to see volumes and some other strong signals coming out of futures to be more convinced that we found a bottom. At the moment I am not convinced.
In this video I focus on the analysis of the On Balance Volume (OBV) indicator.
Ethereum Unlikely to Break Out Above 3000.00The latest bullish pullback on ETHUSD entails excellent opportunities for contrarian trading. After having tested the 23.6% Fibonacci on two separate occasions, the price is currently probing the 38.2% Fibonacci.
The descending trend line (in red) is currently threading very close to this major resistance, which in itself presupposes a likely reversal.
Moreover, it is worth pointing out that the Ichimoku Cloud Indicator underpins persisting bearish bias in the market. The price has reached the upper boundary of the Cloud, which is converging with the trend line and the psychologically significant resistance at 3000.00.
When all of these factors are considered in conjunction with each other, a bearish correction from 3000.00 seems highly probable. From there, ETHUSD is likely to drop to the 23.6% Fibonacci for a third time.
Short $SPY with April - May SeasonalityThe end of April brings a selling opportunity, historically near the FOMC statement and the bulk of tech earnings. This week we had the bulk of tech earnings with FAANMG + TSLA reporting. Combined with the FOMC catalyst I believe this is a great opportunity to either go to cash, or short the markets.
The day after the FOMC SPY posted a Hanging Man top. This particular pattern is pretty accurate, where the price gaps to a new high, drops to a low and fills the previous day's close, then gets bought back up to close very near the opening price (and hopefully just below the opening price).
The attached idea for NDX/QQQ showed a very similar setup. We will know if this trade is legitimate if the price gaps down this morning (Friday April 30) and immediately charges for the previous day's low.
I have very conservative targets for this short, since recent years have show that the "Sell in May" trade has been somewhat muted. I blame this on the QE years beginning in 2009. The left weekly chart shows a pop in the % distance above the 200 week moving average. This level has not been since since the 1996-2000 era. Weekly RSI is also overbought. The right chart shows a possible bearish RSI divergence setup.
16 Year Seasonality SPX (Simple Average) - Close longs and/or short post April FOMC
16 Year Seasonality SPX (Exponentially weighted) - The difference here shows that when recent years are given more weight, the "Sell in May" trade is flat/muted.
BTCUSDT 4H | Bitcoin market overview: OBV FallingHello, dear subscribers!
In the previous and other reviews we have repeatedly analyzed the meaning of the OBV indicator.
We have marked the important support for the buyers - 2.15M. In the days following the last bitcoin market review, the sellers managed to break down important support for the buyers. The bitcoin price corrected from $59,500 to $55,500 in this move.
At the moment, we are seeing the bitcoin price recovering from the fall. One of the expected scenarios of bitcoin price movement is a return to the 2.15M level of the OBV indicator after which a bounce down and a deeper fall of bitcoin price. On the chart, the projected movement is marked with arrows. The next bearish targets after the $55,000 are $52,000 and the round $50,000. It is also possible that the bulls will be able to win back the fall and raise the OBV above 2.15M.
Other indicators MACD and RSI are in the recovery zone, RSI is above 50, MACD shows growth.
In the next days or hours we may see a decoupling in the bitcoin market. All buyers should be careful, probably now the bitcoin price is at an attractive enough level to take profits.
Subscribe to the channel and stay tuned!
BTCUSDT 4H | Bitcoin market overview: Bullish signHello, dear subscribers!
In previous reviews we marked the $58,000 level as important for the bulls.
Fixing above it will give the bulls a chance to continue the full-fledged uptrend. In the past days, we have seen an active growth of bitcoin from the support level 1 - $51,500 - $52,000. Today, bitcoin price got close to 58,000 and broke through the downward channel, in which it was after the historical high.
The MACD and RSI indices turned up and are in the green zone. The OBV indicator touched the support at 2.15M, which is important for buyers and also turned up. All this indicates a full-fledged attack of the bulls, who are satisfied with the current correction and are ready to move the price up to new highs. In the current situation there might be a quick break-up of the level of $58,000 or a fake break-up with a long price chattering around $58,000 and a fight between the bulls and the bears for determining the direction of the trend.
Subscribe to the channel and stay tuned!
BTCUSDT 4H | Bitcoin market overview: CorrectionHello, dear subscribers!
In the previous review, we looked at the downward exit from the triangle as a priority movement option for bitcoin price.
In the following days, bitcoin price corrected down to the designated support zone. The bitcoin price entered the support zone of $51,000 - $52,000, after which the bulls beat off the bears' attack. The current bitcoin price resistance level is in the $55,500 zone. Support levels remain the same.
The RSI and MACD indicators are in the red zone, but at the moment show recovery after a strong fall. The OBV indicator touched 2.15M - this level is the main support for the buyers. A fixation below it would indicate the formation of a global downtrend.
At the moment, bitcoin price is in the wide zone of $51,000 - $55,500. In the coming days, buyers or sellers will try to overcome the boundaries and show their strength, in the current situation, the initiative remains with the bears.
Subscribe to the channel and stay tuned!
Get the Champaign Out – Its Bubble Time I want to discuss stock market bubbles versus new highs and bull runs.
Many of you, I am sure, are concerned about the current market climate. Economies in recession, industries on the brink of disaster, high unemployment, Covid, and a multitude of other issues.
But Mr. Market does not care about your worries; Mr. Market cares about the availability of cheap money, Central Bank stimulus, fiscal policy, and the promise of better times.
We have the promise of better times.
We live in an age where it is actually difficult for a publicly listed company to go bankrupt because it has access to life support and cheap credit.
The question for you “shorties” is…
Are you willing to continue to lose out on profits while the market rises?
Sure, this might end in catastrophe at some point in the future. But that point is not now (probably).
Bullishness With the Avance Decline Ratio Analysis
Take a look at the chart; I have plotted the largest spikes in the Advance/Decline Ratio over the past five years. Do you see a correlation? This is not a lagging indicator like RSI, Moving Averages or MACD.
It tells you now what the market participants are doing. They are either providing demand and pushing prices up, or being a supplier and pushing prices down.
Keep an eye out for large spikes in ADR, as it quite literally predicts a bull run for the subsequent days to months.
An ADR above 3.6 is a strong predictor. This means 3.6 stocks increase in price for every 1 that declines. Of course, the bigger the ADR the stronger the move.
Note: This is a weekly chart.
Finally, remember the stock market would never go up if it did not break into new highs and continue to climb.
Gold: 78.6% retracement in 1/3 timeDecided to share my bullish bias with this chart on gold.
Bullish bias:
78.6% retracement in 1/3 time
Bullish hidden divergences in volume (and momentum, however volume is plotted on chart)
Initial target is the total distance from A-B projected from C, coming in at aprox. 1998$ for gold, which in turn completes the bearish AB=CD. Other potential targets plotted as .382 and .618 on the chart!
Good luck to everyone buying gold!
Clean retest of the 144EMALooks primed here. Price broke the long term downtrend (144EMA) and retested perfectly. Short EMAs are in a healthy uptrend as is the OBV. The fields on the OBV printed a 5 while making a new ATH which for me is extremely bullish.
Took the trade at 0.00000977 BTC for a clean 6.5RR (stop below 144EMA, TP at last real pivot (conservative)).