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Short $SPY with April - May SeasonalityThe end of April brings a selling opportunity, historically near the FOMC statement and the bulk of tech earnings. This week we had the bulk of tech earnings with FAANMG + TSLA reporting. Combined with the FOMC catalyst I believe this is a great opportunity to either go to cash, or short the markets. The day after the FOMC SPY posted a Hanging Man top. This particular pattern is pretty accurate, where the price gaps to a new high, drops to a low and fills the previous day's close, then gets bought back up to close very near the opening price (and hopefully just below the opening price). The attached idea for NDX/QQQ showed a very similar setup. We will know if this trade is legitimate if the price gaps down this morning (Friday April 30) and immediately charges for the previous day's low. I have very conservative targets for this short, since recent years have show that the "Sell in May" trade has been somewhat muted. I blame this on the QE years beginning in 2009. The left weekly chart shows a pop in the % distance above the 200 week moving average. This level has not been since since the 1996-2000 era. Weekly RSI is also overbought. The right chart shows a possible bearish RSI divergence setup. 16 Year Seasonality SPX (Simple Average) - Close longs and/or short post April FOMC 16 Year Seasonality SPX (Exponentially weighted) - The difference here shows that when recent years are given more weight, the "Sell in May" trade is flat/muted.
Editors' picks
AMEX:SPYShort
by mortdiggiddy
95
BTCUSDT 4H | Bitcoin market overview: OBV FallingHello, dear subscribers! In the previous and other reviews we have repeatedly analyzed the meaning of the OBV indicator. We have marked the important support for the buyers - 2.15M. In the days following the last bitcoin market review, the sellers managed to break down important support for the buyers. The bitcoin price corrected from $59,500 to $55,500 in this move. At the moment, we are seeing the bitcoin price recovering from the fall. One of the expected scenarios of bitcoin price movement is a return to the 2.15M level of the OBV indicator after which a bounce down and a deeper fall of bitcoin price. On the chart, the projected movement is marked with arrows. The next bearish targets after the $55,000 are $52,000 and the round $50,000. It is also possible that the bulls will be able to win back the fall and raise the OBV above 2.15M. Other indicators MACD and RSI are in the recovery zone, RSI is above 50, MACD shows growth. In the next days or hours we may see a decoupling in the bitcoin market. All buyers should be careful, probably now the bitcoin price is at an attractive enough level to take profits. Subscribe to the channel and stay tuned!
Short
by CatalystsFinance
BTCUSDT 4H | Bitcoin market overview: Bullish signHello, dear subscribers! In previous reviews we marked the $58,000 level as important for the bulls. Fixing above it will give the bulls a chance to continue the full-fledged uptrend. In the past days, we have seen an active growth of bitcoin from the support level 1 - $51,500 - $52,000. Today, bitcoin price got close to 58,000 and broke through the downward channel, in which it was after the historical high. The MACD and RSI indices turned up and are in the green zone. The OBV indicator touched the support at 2.15M, which is important for buyers and also turned up. All this indicates a full-fledged attack of the bulls, who are satisfied with the current correction and are ready to move the price up to new highs. In the current situation there might be a quick break-up of the level of $58,000 or a fake break-up with a long price chattering around $58,000 and a fight between the bulls and the bears for determining the direction of the trend. Subscribe to the channel and stay tuned!
Long
by CatalystsFinance
BTCUSDT 4H | Bitcoin market overview: CorrectionHello, dear subscribers! In the previous review, we looked at the downward exit from the triangle as a priority movement option for bitcoin price. In the following days, bitcoin price corrected down to the designated support zone. The bitcoin price entered the support zone of $51,000 - $52,000, after which the bulls beat off the bears' attack. The current bitcoin price resistance level is in the $55,500 zone. Support levels remain the same. The RSI and MACD indicators are in the red zone, but at the moment show recovery after a strong fall. The OBV indicator touched 2.15M - this level is the main support for the buyers. A fixation below it would indicate the formation of a global downtrend. At the moment, bitcoin price is in the wide zone of $51,000 - $55,500. In the coming days, buyers or sellers will try to overcome the boundaries and show their strength, in the current situation, the initiative remains with the bears. Subscribe to the channel and stay tuned!
Short
by CatalystsFinance
Get the Champaign Out – Its Bubble Time I want to discuss stock market bubbles versus new highs and bull runs. Many of you, I am sure, are concerned about the current market climate. Economies in recession, industries on the brink of disaster, high unemployment, Covid, and a multitude of other issues. But Mr. Market does not care about your worries; Mr. Market cares about the availability of cheap money, Central Bank stimulus, fiscal policy, and the promise of better times. We have the promise of better times. We live in an age where it is actually difficult for a publicly listed company to go bankrupt because it has access to life support and cheap credit. The question for you “shorties” is… Are you willing to continue to lose out on profits while the market rises? Sure, this might end in catastrophe at some point in the future. But that point is not now (probably). Bullishness With the Avance Decline Ratio Analysis Take a look at the chart; I have plotted the largest spikes in the Advance/Decline Ratio over the past five years. Do you see a correlation? This is not a lagging indicator like RSI, Moving Averages or MACD. It tells you now what the market participants are doing. They are either providing demand and pushing prices up, or being a supplier and pushing prices down. Keep an eye out for large spikes in ADR, as it quite literally predicts a bull run for the subsequent days to months. An ADR above 3.6 is a strong predictor. This means 3.6 stocks increase in price for every 1 that declines. Of course, the bigger the ADR the stronger the move. Note: This is a weekly chart. Finally, remember the stock market would never go up if it did not break into new highs and continue to climb.
SP:SPXLong
by liberatedstocktrader
2
Nico's SPX S&R Adjusted Dynamic ChannelTest of dynamic channels and some statistics made by hand. This indicator was done specifically for the S&P500 index. As you can see, below the 125 EMA there's a lot more volatility than in the upside. I've made some kind of a dynamic linear regression of the lows and the highs. How to use this indicator Green = First grade support/resistance. Orange = Second grade support/resistance. Caution. Red = Third grade support/resistance. High chances of mean reversal. Blue zone = This is the neutral zone, where the prices are not cheap nor expensive. Often in a trending market, the price will have the blue zone as it's main support and when trending the price will stick to the green MA. When the price touches the orange MA, the most probable is that it will return to the green MA. If the price touches the red zone, there's a high chance that this is a big turning point and it will reverse to the mean (green or blue zone). I've backtested this indicator since the beginning of the dataset and it works like magic. Leave a comment if you like it!
TVC:SPX
by NicolasRZ
19
BTCUSDT 4H | Bitcoin market overview: BearishHello, dear subscribers! In our previous review, we looked at the formation of the "triangle" pattern on the bitcoin price chart. Bitcoin price came out of the "triangle" downwards, this confirms selling as the main scenario. The price minimum after exiting the "triangle" at the level of - $35,000, was - $28,850. After that, bitcoin price corrected upwards and entered the zone of $31,000 - $34,300 between support and resistance level. At the moment, bitcoin price is within this range. According to the MACD and RSI indicators, we see a corrective upward movement. An interesting picture is observed on the OBV indicator - the indicator value has fallen under the support of 1.795M, which indicates a bear market. A rebound from resistance is likely to lead to another bearish attack in the bitcoin market. Subscribe to the channel and stay tuned!
Short
by CatalystsFinance
BTCUSDT 4H | Bitcoin market overview: Triangle battleHello, dear subscribers! In the previous review, we looked at the boundaries of bitcoin price movement zones in the short term. In the following days, the bears managed to lower the bitcoin price to the resistance zone 1. Buyers managed to beat off the bears' attack twice and push the price up. At the moment, bitcoin price is at the border of the resistance level - $36,800, which was previously a support. The bitcoin's price movement forms a "triangle" pattern, an exit from which up or down will cause the price movement equal to the height of the triangle, which is about $10,000. The MACD and RSI indicators show the dominance of buyers in the market, in the current 4-hour candle they both went into the green zone. If the bears did not manage to close the current candle in the red zone, a buy signal will be formed. The OBV is showing a decline in the long positions of the last few days, which tells you that the sellers are increasing their positions. This may be a negative factor for further bitcoin price growth. Subscribe to the channel and stay tuned!
by CatalystsFinance
2
A BTC Study on the Bollinger BandsIn this technical analysis I will walk you through the methodology that I applied to verify a hypothesis that I've been forming while looking at BTC recently. This is a slightly different analysis than the one I usually publish, I'd be very interested to hear your feedback. I want to experiment a bit with different forms of ideas that I publish here on the platform. I am taking the bollinger bands over the last weeks and check every time the price comes above or below it. I want to see if it has predictive value over the next movement. I hope that together with some of you I can extend this theory to make it more accurate. Perhaps there are ways that I can make it more accurate by discovering connections that I hadn't seen yet. So please feel free to drop me a comment below if you have more ideas! So what about the strategy? This will be a good lesson on risk-reward as you will see unfold that we can make a good profit with a near 50/50 win loss strategy. So what would the strategy actually look like? The strategy would be as follows: You would wait for the price to break out of the Bollinger bands and immediately start a BTC trade. Then, if it is above the upper band you would place a short. Conversely if it is below the lower band you would place a long. The hard part is about determining where to place your stop loss and where to take profit. I played with a few numbers, but it seems that if you take a profit of 3% and place a stop loss at a 2% risk you would get a very interesting results. And what about the results? There are: - 32 breakouts in total - 17 of which are positive - 15 of which are negative - 53% win-loss (17/32) total To keep things simple and not work with compound interest now, this gives us a total of: - 17*3 percent points profit, - 15*2 percent points loss - This is a net net 21% percent points profit I'm super curious to hear your thoughts on this one. A new format where we discuss a trading strategy. Also what do you think of the strategy itself or the methodology I apply here to calculate how successful it is? Follow me for consistent high quality updates, with clear explanations and charts. Please like this post to support me. - Trading Guru -------------------------------------------------------------- Disclaimer! This post does not provide financial advice. It is for educational purposes only!
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by Trading-Guru
14