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Breakdown

Breakdown Play on the EURJPYThe EURJPY is currently trading within the boundaries of a major range (spanning between 130.600 and 129.800). If the price manages to break down below the lower boundary of the range, this would open up the possibility for another breakdown towards 128.400 (previous swing low). Such a breakdown would be confirmed if the price manages to penetrate below the 100-day MA (in blue) first and then below the 200-day MA (in red). Notice that the latter is currently converging with the lower boundary of the range.
Short
by Trendsharks
CADJPY - FREE BREAKDOWN Hello traders and welcome to this free analysis breakdown. In this video you will see me map the market and show possible trade areas on the CADJPY . Once this pair gives me a valid signal i will place the trade idea in to the Honest Financial Community. I hope you have found this video educational, if you like our content then please like and follow the channel. Please comment below for feedback and what you would like to see regarding education or an asset analysis breakdown. Trade Safe.
by HonestFXTA
USDCHF | Perspective for the new week | Follow-upWe had a very good trading opportunity on our last trade on this pair as the price moved over 500pips in our direction since my last publication (see link below for reference purposes). Fr0.92300 has held price "Supported" five good times in the past hereby making this level a very viable Demand zone we can "trust". However, this same level has been a strong Support/Resistance level on the weekly chart (see below) and considering this character I shall be very careful here as a Breakdown might insinuate a risk of further decline... Let's take a look at what I think; Tendency: Neutral Structure: Breakdown | Supply & Demand | Trendline | Reversal Pattern (H and S) Observation: i. The Trendline indicated on the chart has been a significant factor in deciding the prevailing bias of participants in the market since December 2020 as price tend to follow in the direction of a Break above/below at any given point in time. ii. Since the break above of trendline (Fr0.91400) happened in early March 2021, Price has found a niche above Fr0.92200 which has become a strong Demand level. iii. Demand level is considered strong due to the number of times the price has rejected this level to the upside in the past (five times!). iv. Even as this level is considered strong, I am in a dilemma as the Breakdown of the Trendline during last week trading session might either be a false Breakdown or an incitation of a further decline in the nearest future should the price decide not to respect the Demand zone and do a Breakdown. v. To be on the safe side for a rally continuation, I shall be looking to buy above Neckline which will also be a Key level @ Fr0.92750 for Bullish expectations. vi. How to know if Breakdown is valid or not? When the price does not respect Demand zone and break down the Fr0.92000 area then we look forward to correction of Breakdown to join the decline train. vii. This been said, we can not ignore the Reversal setup forming on the Daily chart as I see a Head and Shoulder pattern forming should price rally in the coming week (see chart below). Trading plan: BUY confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 150 pips. SELL confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 170 pips. Risk/Reward : 1:5 Potential Duration: 5 to 10days NB: This speculation might be considered to make individual decisions on the lower timeframe. Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored. Risk Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including foreign exchange trading, CFDs, etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
by darcsherry
2
EURUSD | Perspective for the new weekThe rise in US government bond yields (when 10-year yields went as high as 1.68%) appears to be having a positive effect on the Greenback as I look forward to a bearish momentum in the coming week(s). With lines drawn by connecting the lower highs and lower lows of price with parallel trendlines, It is obvious that price has been caught within a Channel in a downward trend since December 2020 as the new year started with what looks the beginning of a reversal pattern and it doesn't appear to change unless we experience a significant Breakout of Trendline. Tendency: Downtrend ( Bearish ) Structure: Breakdown | Supply & Demand | Channel | Reversal pattern Observation: i. Buyers completely lost grip of the $1.2000 level in early March 2021 resulting in a Breakdown that tested Channel the third time. ii. A couple of rejection of the $1.2000 level after the Breakout (double rejection on the chart) reveals the selling pressure at this juncture. iii. The resulting line drawn over pivot high (represented on the chart as Pivot I & II) reveals the prevailing direction of price action since it hit peak @ @1.23500. iii. As I look forward to a possible Pivot III, I have identified the $1.2100/1.19500 area to be a new area to look out for selling opportunity in the coming week(s). iv. A word of caution: Should price decide to make a significant Breakout of Channel/Trendline to the upside @ $1.21000, set-up shall be disregarded for a rally with retest expectations... trade consciously :)! Trading plan: SELL confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 350 pips. Risk/Reward : 1:3 Potential Duration: 6 to 10days NB: This speculation might be considered to make individual decisions on the lower timeframe. Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored. Risk Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including foreign exchange trading, CFDs, etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Short
by darcsherry
GBPAUD | Perspective for the new week | Follow-upDespite moving over 250pips in our direction since my last publication; the Bullish tendency projected never gained significant traction as the price finally broke down the Bullish Trendline which also coincides with my Key level @ AU$1.80000 during last week trading session (see link below for reference purposes). As my previous Bullish bias appears to slip away considering the recent breakdown of Key level and previous Bullish trendline, I shall be looking forward to Bearish tendencies this coming week(s) around and below my Key level @ AU$1.80000. Tendency: Downtrend ( Bearish ) Structure: Breakdown | Supply & Demand Observation: i. It is fascinating how the Key level @ AU$1.80000 has served as a major determinant of the prevailing bias of price action in the last 36days. ii. Demand zone which has held price "supported" in the last 14days appears to have handed the baton to the Bears as breakdown followed by rejection of this level points at a possible shift in perspective has happened. iii. My Key level @ AU$1.80000 shall be my yardstick for Bearish expectations in the coming week as any spot below this level is good for me to open a position! iv. This been said, I am advising that taking this trade requires utmost attention as the tendency of an uptrend can not be ignored considering the observations made in my last publication (see link below) and factors that might disrupt this setup giving way for an immediate rally continuation can happen anytime (hereby considering the Breakdown a false one!)... trade consciously :)! Trading plan: SELL confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 250 pips. Risk/Reward : 1:3.5 Potential Duration: 5 to 12days NB: This speculation might be considered to make individual decisions on the lower timeframe. Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored. Risk Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including foreign exchange trading, CFDs, etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Short
by darcsherry
$SPY will crash soon...PLEASE PLEASE BE MOSTLY CASH!Wells Fargo Executes Four Block Trades Worth $2 Billion Stocks valued at $2.64 billion changed hands in a flurry of block trades Monday as tumult from the wind-down of Bill Hwang’s Archegos Capital Management extended into a new week. Five block trades valued at a combined $2.14 billion were executed by Wells Fargo & Co., according to a person familiar with the matter. US STOCKS-S&P 500 near flat; hedge fund default concerns hit banks The S&P 500 was nearly flat in Monday afternoon trading, with bank shares falling amid warnings of potential losses from a hedge fund's default on margin calls, while optimism over the economy limited the day's declines. Nomura and Credit Suisse are facing billions of dollars in losses after a U.S. hedge fund, named by sources as Archegos Capital, defaulted on margin calls, putting investors on edge about who else might have been caught out. Shares of Morgan Stanley were down 2.5% after the Financial Times reported it had also sold billions of shares, while the banks index shed about 1.9%. "There's still chatter as to whether or not, and which, American banks may be affected. Wall Street's fear gauge rose. Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.94-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 3.11-to-1 ratio favored decliners. The S&P 500 posted 69 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 81 new highs and 50 new lows. Everything has peaked... $SPY will knife drop so fast, no one will have any time to sell...
AMEX:SPYShort
by BADQOMOCAWGOWLD
9
$SPY choppy downtrendFed to lift restrictions on bank dividends, share buybacks for 'most firms' after June stress test WASHINGTON, March 25 (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve announced on Thursday it would likely remove income-based restrictions on bank dividends and share buybacks for "most firms" in June after its next round of stress tests. The central bank said that all large firms that can show they can stay above regulatory minimum capital requirements after undergoing the next stress test will no longer face those restrictions, which were imposed at the onset of the pandemic to help banks build up reserve cushions. Companies that see their levels fall below minimums during the test will have to adhere to the restrictions through Sept. 30. The central bank said large firms that stay above minimum capital requirements after undergoing the next stress test will no longer face payout restrictions, which were imposed at the onset of the pandemic to ensure banks built up reserve cushions. Firms that see their levels fall below minimums during the test will have to adhere to the restrictions through Sept. 30. Previously, the Fed had stipulated that banks could pay out dividends or buy back stock only so long as those levels did not exceed what the banks made in net income the prior year. "The banking system continues to be a source of strength and returning to our normal framework after this year's stress test will preserve that strength,” said Randal Quarles, the Fed's top regulatory official. The announcement is likely to be met with relief by large banks on Wall Street, which had bristled under the restrictions imposed in June 2020 to further bolster capital cushions at banks facing huge economic uncertainty. It also serves as a vote of confidence for banks that they have been able to weather the worst of the pandemic and can return to business as normal. On Wednesday, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who previously chaired the Fed, said she believed banks look healthy enough to pay dividends or repurchase stock. The Fed also announced that smaller firms, which only face a Fed stress test every two years, will automatically be freed of the payout restrictions on June 30. (Reporting by Pete Schroeder; editing by Jonathan Oatis and David Gregorio)
AMEX:SPYShort
by BADQOMOCAWGOWLD
GBPUSD | Perspective for the new week | Follow-upThe greenback appears to be building on structures supporting a rally in the coming week(s) as the Nonfarm Payrolls report draws near. The price travelled in the opposite direction since my last publication as $1.40000 remains a strong Supplication level ( see link below for reference purposes). A sharp rejection of $1.4000 followed by a significant Breakdown of $1.38300 (key level) during last week trading session send signals of a risk of further decline for the Pound in the coming week(s). Tendency: Downtrend ( Bearish ) Structure: Breakdown | Supply & Demand | Harmonic patter (AB = CD) | Descending Channel Observation: i. Connecting the lower highs and lower lows of price with parallel trendlines emphasizes that price action has been caught within a Descending Channel since February 2021. ii. The Demand zone @ $1.38300 that held price "supported" during the penultimate week was finally broken during last week trading session with momentum favouring the Bears. iii. The present structure after breakdown supports a transition into a Harmonic pattern (AB = CD) with parameters explained below; a. Leg A-to-B shall be expected to be in harmony with the C-to-D leg. b. The B- to-C leg present falls within 61.8% (with the possibility of extending into 78.6%) Fibonacci retracement of the A-to-B leg. c. The C-to-D leg is expected to fall within 127.2 - 1.414% Fib. ext. of the A-to-B move @ $1.35500 area. iv. This been said, It possible that price might not break above key level to continue the decline hence it is pertinent that we keep an eye on price action around $1.38300 in the coming week(s):) Trading plan: SELL confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 300 pips. Risk/Reward : 1:3.5 Potential Duration: 4 to 10days NB: This speculation might be considered to make individual decisions on the lower timeframe. Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored. Risk Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including foreign exchange trading, CFDs, etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Short
by darcsherry
1
EURNZD | Perspective for the new weekI am not certain that the Euro is ready for Bullish bounce in the nearest future as a continuous rejection of Supply zone and Key level since the beginning of the month remains an emphatic sign of a Bearish bias. Tendency: Downtrend ( Bearish ) Structure: Breakdown | Supply & Demand |Trendline Observation: i. Bearish Trendline: The visual representation of line drawn over pivot highs represented on the chart (Pivot I to VI) explains the prevailing direction and speed of price in the last 3 months. ii. The Breakdown of NZ$1.67000/1.66500 area February 2021 followed by rejection of this zone emphasizes the strength of Sellers at this juncture in the market. iii. A further breakdown/rejection of NZ$1.65400 in the coming week(s) should encourage adding to the existing position as the Key level remains a yardstick for Bearish tendencies. Trading plan: SELL confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 350pips. Risk/Reward : 1:4 Potential Duration: 5 to 10 days NB: This speculation might be considered to make individual decisions on the lower timeframe. Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored. Risk Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including foreign exchange trading, CFDs, etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Short
by darcsherry
EURAUD | Perspective for the new weekThe first observation on this chart is the Descending channel drawn by connecting the lower highs and lower lows of price action with parallel trendlines emphasize the prevailing trend that began in October 2020... It appears the price is willing to respect this channel in the coming week as a Breakdown of AU$1.545000 level followed by rejection is a clue supporting a Bearish bias. Tendency: Downtrend ( Bearish ) Structure: Breakdown | Supply & Demand | Harmonic pattern (AB = CD) | Descending Channel Observation: i. In the last 21days, the AU$1.54500 level has been a major determinant of the direction of price action. ii. A breakdown of AU$1.54500 on the 10th of March 2021 followed by a continuous rejection of this level in the last 9 days is a clue that structure might transpose into a harmonic (AB = CD) pattern (see parameters below) in the coming week(s). a. Leg A-to-B is expected to be in harmony with the potential C-to-D leg. b. The B- to-C leg makes a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the A-to-B leg. c. The C-to-D leg is expected to fall within 127.2 - 1.414% Fib. ext. of the A-to-B move @ AU$1.50000 area. iii. In the coming week, I shall make the level @ AU$1.54500 a yardstick for downtrend continuation. iv. Pleased note that a significant Breakout of the Channel shall render this setup invalid. Trading plan: SELL confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 400pips. Risk/Reward : 1:4 Potential Duration: 7 to 15 days NB: This speculation might be considered to make individual decisions on the lower timeframe. Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored. Risk Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including foreign exchange trading, CFDs, etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Short
by darcsherry
4