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Breakdown

H&S reaches its precise measured move breakdown target.BTC has dropped 50% from it's all time high as the pi cycle top indicator has essentially been validated here...however this does not necessarily mean the end of the bull market. We have now seen a healthy bounce once the priceaction reached the exact drop target from the h&s pattern of 30k....anything above 28.7k gives us a higher low on the weekly....normally i look for higher lows and highs on the daily chart but we may have enter a new macrocosm to where a bull market can continue as long as there is a higher low on the weekly instead...time will tell soon enough....there's no guarantee this isn't anything more than a dead cat bounce. However, we can see the hash ribbon indicator is once again very close to a buy signal and it has been quite reliable in the past so this may very well have been the correction. We will have to see where this bounces....regaining 40k as solidified support before the weekly close would be a very optimistic sign. Ideally to see bullish continuation I'd want to see the weekly candle close with the weekly 21ema as support...it's only Wednesday so plenty of time for that still to occur. if this is a dead cat however we need to entertain the possibility that we could fall as low as the weekly 200ma. for now I am neutral.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by DrDovetail
CADJPY | Perspective for the new week | Follow-UpWith over 800pips run since my last publication (see link below for reference purposes); It appears we are at a juncture in the market where a trading opportunity is building up as structures insinuates a reversal. The CADJPY pair appears to be losing its bullish strength since hitting her peak @ Y 90.600 which was followed by Lower lows that culminated in a successful Breakdown of Key level I @ Y90.350 during last week trading session. However, this bearish potential seems limited at the time being as we still need to keep our fingers crossed for further confirmations that will trigger selling opportunity ( a possible correction phase in anticipation of a rally continuation). Tendency: Downtrend ( Bearish) Structure: Breakdown | Supply & Demand | Trendline Observation: i. The Bullish Trendline indicated on the chart has been a significant factor in deciding the prevailing direction of price action since last month. ii. Pivot point Ito IV emphasizes a visual representation of price action respecting a support line. iii. It is observed that the thrust from Pivot IV appear to have lost momentum which has been consistent with the pattern in the past as the price rejects Y90.500 during last week trading session. iv. The rejection of Y90.500 give rise to the appearance of the Double Top pattern - an extremely bearish technical reversal pattern that forms after the price reaches a peak two consecutive times with a moderate decline between the two highs. v. This been said, I shall be looking forward to a Breakdown/Retest of Trendline which shall also coincide with Breakdown of Neckline (Key level II) @ Y90.000 (a psychological level) for confirmation in the coming week(s). vi. CAUTION: A Breakout/Retest of Y90.350 shall render this set-up invalid with the possibility of rally positive. Please note that we are looking for an opportunity for Bearish momentum below Trendline... Trade consciously! :) Trading plan: SELL confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 150 pips. Risk/Reward : 1:5 Potential Duration: 2 to 6 days NB: This speculation might be considered to make individual decisions on the lower timeframe. Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored. Risk Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including foreign exchange trading, CFDs, etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Short
by darcsherry
GBPCHF | Perspective for the new week | Follow-UpWith over a thousand pips since my last publication on this pair (see link below for reference purposes); The Pound has enjoyed dominance over the Swiss franc in the last couple of months and we are presently witnessing a drop in Bullish momentum as price action appears to have transitioned into a corrective phase since the successful Breakdown of Fr1.28000 (Key level) on the 7th of April 2021. Even though we are on an overall Bullish trend (see weekly chart); I am planning to take a counter-trade opportunity on this pair, why? We might be experiencing a risk of further decline in the coming week(s) as participants who took advantage of the Bull do quick profit-taking with high hopes of a rally in the nearest future. Tendency: Downtrend ( Bearish ) Structure: Breakdown | Supply & Demand Observation: i. Breakdown of Key level @ Fr1.28000 has been followed with the multiple rejections of this level as price continues to trade under in the last one month. ii. From a Bearish perspective, trading below Fr1.28000/1.27000 seems to be a safe juncture to place sell orders in the coming week(s). iii. Even as Bearish momentum appears imminent, it is important that we take into consideration the major Demand zone @ Fr1.26000/1.25500 area which has held price "supported" since Feb 2021. iv. With such a strong Demand level ahead of us on this Bearish journey, it is advisable that we remain conscious as any significant rejection of this level might incite a rally continuation. v. However, should a Breakdown of Demand level happens in the coming week(s); an opportunity to add a position at retest appears to be most appropriate. vi. CAUTION: a. Break above and retest of Fr1.280000 incites rally continuation b. Long term perspective is Bullish hence the need to be conscious throughout the course of this trade is VERY VERY important... Trade consciously! :) Trading plan: SELL confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 200 pips. Risk/Reward : 1:4 Potential Duration: 6 to 10days NB: This speculation might be considered to make individual decisions on the lower timeframe. Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored. Risk Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including foreign exchange trading, CFDs, etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Short
by darcsherry
2
EURCHF | Perspective for the new weekAfter moving over 350pips in our direction since my last speculation on this pair (see link below for reference purposes); the breakdown of the Demand zone which has held price "Supported" in the last 70 days was finally broken to the downside giving rise to a "quick" counter-trend opportunity in the coming week(s). Tendency: Downtrend ( Bearish ) Structure: Supply & Demand | Breakdown | Trendline Observation: i. The Bullish run that began mid-February 2021 and peaked @ Fr1.11500 appears to be going through a Corrective phase. ii. The Breakdown of Fr1.09800 during last week trading session signals the seller's strength at this juncture in the market. iii. With Bearish tendencies "screaming" since Breakdown, I am of the opinion that a potential new Supply level around Fr1.0200/1.09800 shall crystallize in the coming week. iv. A comfort entry after a further Breakdown/retest of Key level @ Fr1.09500 in the coming week(s) should trigger confirmation with the aim of testing Bullish Trendline (Check the weekly chart below). v.This been said, there is also a possibility that the Bullish trendline on the weekly chart might be broken (considering the long-term bearish perspective) hereby welcoming an opportunity to add position at retest... Trade consciously! :) Trading plan: SELL confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 130 pips. Risk/Reward : 1:4 Potential Duration: 5 to 10days NB: This speculation might be considered to make individual decisions on the lower timeframe. Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored. Risk Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including foreign exchange trading, CFDs, etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Short
by darcsherry
$SPY Could Drop To $396The S&P 500 has slowed down in its growth and needs a correction soon. On this daily chart, you can see a rounding top forming near an important resistance line. In addition to that, the RSI has formed a bearish divergence pattern. We are also still in a major earnings season. I have added a fibonacci retracement to the chart to show that that 50% retracement at $396 has been an important level in the past. This price level could potentially act as support in the near future. Comment your thoughts :) Good Luck!
AMEX:SPYShort
by Investor4321
4
EURUSD | Perspective for the new week | Follow-upWe have been on standby since my last publication on this pair as it took price over two weeks to come to our proposed Supply zone (see link below for reference purposes). The last few days of last week trading session witnessed a strong Bearish pressure mounts as the price rejects the $1.21500 area which is represented on the chart with a bearish engulfing candle. A plunge on Friday saw the Greenback strengthened amid a dismal market’s mood which could be related to end of the month profit-taking by participants who took advantage of the Bull that began the month of April 2020. Tendency: Downtrend ( Bearish ) Structure: Breakdown | Supply & Demand | Reversal pattern | Channel Observation: i. It is completely obvious that price is within a pattern formed from two downward trendlines drawn above and below price action represented by resistance and support levels since December 2020. ii. The Demand level which held price "supported" @ $1.20000 in the 3 months was finally broken (March 2021) giving way for Sellers to push price below thereby respecting the Descending Channel. iii. A breakout of the Channel that occurred on the 20th of April 2020 is yet to be confirmed successful or not as a rejection/breakdown of my Key level in the coming week shall help me make a decision. iv. The Channel Breakout shall be regarded false if the price closes below Key level hereby confirming an opportunity to sell the Euro in the coming week(s)... Trade consciously! Trading plan: SELL confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 350 pips. Risk/Reward : 1:4.5 Potential Duration: 10 to 20days NB: This speculation might be considered to make individual decisions on the lower timeframe. Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored. Risk Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including foreign exchange trading, CFDs, etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Short
by darcsherry
Bitcoin Could Hit 40k SoonWhen looking at how far a security could dip I generally like to look at key fib areas, particularly that .5 level. In this case, we see that Bitcoin has reacted well to this level in the past. We have completed the long-term impulsive wave and growth has slowed down in the recent extended wave. We have now created a lower low, which means the uptrend could be over for the time being. We also made a doji candle yesterday, which could mean that this strong week we had could simply be part of the bigger correction wave. Of course, it is possible that the bulls will not allow this to fall as far as 40k, but this is my personal opinion. Good Luck!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Investor4321
ETHBTC - A simple approachShowing support is greatly appreciated and keeps up the motivation in continuous ideas and education for the community. Observe: 0.041895, 0.045950 Two prices that indicate structure, we can now quickly identify that both prices have been important in a direction, volume and liquidity change, thus giving us key identifiers we can label for reference when we analyze a chart. You can use the "Horizontal Line" tool to analysis almost any security across multiple time frames, it's use is widely forgotten and you can't simplify a chart any less... Horizontal Line Tool: - Mark out important prices - Help show a position, entry, stop - Plot important alerts - Simplify Analysis If you'd like more quick educational posts like this, show us some support
Education
by UnknownUnicorn21108119
2
Bitcoin inverse head & shoulders + FibonacciAs you can see drawn in the chart, we could potentially see a re-test of the left shoulder as we create an inverse Head & Shoulders. This level is also coincidental with the 61.8% fibonacci retracement level ($43K), which many call "the point of no return", meaning a breakdown below this level is expected to reach 100% retracement, which is around $29K. The 50sma is has been working well since the end of October 2020. And will be important to retake if the bulls want to take control.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by dorfmanmaster
No Mans LandThe symmetrical triangle is now invalidated due to the break below the yellow dotted line and we find ourselves in a descending triangle in the context of an uptrend (solid yellow line horizontal blue line). Strong Blue line support @ 0.255. The previous symmetrical triangles' lower trendline (Yellow dashed) is now acting as resistance. So what does this all mean: Bullish Case: We breakout over the solid yellow line and move much higher where the dashed yellow line acts as a temporary pause. Based on the chart this could take up to May 7th to play out. Bearish Case: We break down and hold below 0.25, which would be very bearish as the next level of support below that is at 0.18. Some observations: The pace of the down move over the last 2 days has slowed as compared to the initial descent from 0.42 which is slightly bullish, however, there is some extremely unusual trading activity between 0.3 to 0.32 (heavy selling and buying) Fingers crossed, let me know your thoughts and observations!
BINANCE:DOGEUSD
by vipulppatel
4
GOLD Scalp breakdownRisking 1%, one winning scalp a day is all you need. Enjoy the rest of the day! Keeps you from overtrading, revenge trading, and minimizes losses. If you start with 200$ account , and make 1% profit each day, your equity will be approx. 45M$ 5 years later! Two trades a day. If the first one is a loser, another trade can fix that. 2 losers, end of day. 1L and 1W, you are the winner. End your day. A third trade is allowable under certain circumstances. Like market conditions, reduced position size (risking only the day's profit), and the like. "How do I control my greed?" Here you go....
OANDA:XAUUSD
by RT_Money
Breakdown Play on the EURJPYThe EURJPY is currently trading within the boundaries of a major range (spanning between 130.600 and 129.800). If the price manages to break down below the lower boundary of the range, this would open up the possibility for another breakdown towards 128.400 (previous swing low). Such a breakdown would be confirmed if the price manages to penetrate below the 100-day MA (in blue) first and then below the 200-day MA (in red). Notice that the latter is currently converging with the lower boundary of the range.
Short
by Trendsharks