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Breakdown

CADCHF | Perspective for the new weekThe impact of Sellers in February 2020 (Bearish Impulse leg that lasted a month on the weekly chart - ) appears to be too strong for the Buyers to gain that confidence needed to invest in the CAD. With the present Head and Shoulder look alike, I shall be patiently looking out for a significant Breakdown of Neckline and Support level @ 0.69300 to hop in the decline. Tendency: Downtrend ( Bearish ) Structure: Channel | H & S| Supply & Demand Observation: i. Despite having a Bullish structure, the CAD$0.0.69800 level has been a very stronghold for Sellers since mid-October 2020. ii. Bullish move from CAD$0.69400 (Support level) continue to be rejected @ CAD$0.69800 hence making it a major level for Supply. iii. With the present character in the market, the Breakout of CAD$0.698000 on the 9th of Nov. 2020 appears to be false as the price continues to experience weak Bullish momentum springing from the Bullish Trendline. iv. This been said, CAD$0.69300 level becomes a level to watch out for significant breakdown for confirmation this week. v. It is also worthy to note here that a significant Breakout of CAD$0.70000 level this week might render this setup invalid and an immediate shift to a rally continuation shall be activated. Trading plan: SELL confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 100 pips. Risk/Reward: 1:3 Potential Duration: 1 to 5 days NB: This speculation can be considered to make decisions on lower timeframes. Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored. Risk Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including foreign exchange trading, CFDs, etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Short
by darcsherry
AUDUSD | Perspective for the new weekIt has really been a while since I visited this pair but the current structure appears to be promising as I see a defiant level packed with selling pressure @ $0.73400. The AUD/USD pair has continued in a predictive pattern with a second consecutive week in a tight 100 pips’ range since hitting its highest level in recent times @ $0.73400. Despite rallying during the trading session on Friday, we are still stuck in the same range giving the impression that Buyers at this juncture lack the momentum to push the price above its previous high @ $0.73400 hereby opening a window for a counter-trend possibility. Tendency: Downtrend ( Bearish ) Structure: Channel | Reversal pattern | Supply & Demand | Trendline Observation: i. Despite structure screaming "Bullish!", we might be in for a correction phase this week in anticipation of a rally continuation. ii. $0.73400 level has been respected since the beginning of this month at six different occasions making this a strong Supply zone. ii. A sharp rejection of $0.73200 level on Friday despite a rally insinuates there might be a Breakdown of Trendline in the coming week. iii. With the high expectation of a Trendline breakdown @ $0.72700, I shall be keeping tabs on my Demand area @ $0.72200 for a significant Breakdown which shall confirm Correction of the Impulse leg. Trading plan: SELL confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 200 pips. Risk/Reward: 1:5 Potential Duration: 5 to 10 days NB: This speculation can be considered to make decisions on lower timeframes. Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored. Risk Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including foreign exchange trading, CFDs, etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Short
by darcsherry
USDCAD | PERSPECTIVE FOR THE NEW WEEKAfter taking a 200pips gain in our last publication on this pair (see link below for reference purposes), it appears we are at a juncture for a second wave of shorting the USDCAD as price breaks down my key level @ CAD1.30700. Despite making the previous four trading days in the positive territory, the USD/CAD pair rose to its highest level during the last week at CAD1.31740 on Friday only to experience a sharp rejection of this level with a Shooting star candle. Even though I have this intuition that the price of oil will surge soon, It is worthy to note that the performance of oil in the coming week shall be a significant point of reference to make a decision on this pair. Tendency: Downtrend ( Bearish ) Structure: Breakdown | Supply & Demand | Trendline Observation: i. As price continues to respect the major Trendline since May 2020; a Breakdown of Key level @ 1.30700 on the 5th of Nov. 2020 is a clue that the Trend might continue considering the Selling pressure at this juncture in the market. ii. 1.31300 area which has been a Demand zone in the past appears to have been taken over by Sellers as this level no longer hold a haven for buyers. iii. Our New Supply zone @ 1.32000 & 1.31500 which is also forming a Double Top pattern confirms the strength and presence of Sellers. iv. We experienced significant growth in the Greenback last week but I am considering this minor uptrend to be a correction phase that might hit around 61.8% retracement in anticipation of a decline. Trading plan: SELL confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 450 pips. Risk/Reward: 1:3.5 Potential Duration: 5 to 10 days NB: This speculation can be considered to make decisions on lower timeframes. Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored. Risk Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including foreign exchange trading, CFDs, etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Short
by darcsherry
1
EURCHF | PERSPECTIVE FOR THE NEW WEEKRisks remain asymmetric longer term as the SNB holds the downside in check and a possible global recovery in 2021 may bring some relief to the EURCHF but in the meantime, it is evident that the Bullish momentum finally begins to make a statement in the market. I shall be looking out for a "quick" temporary counter-trend opportunity on this pair in the coming week in anticipation of a Bullish continuation. This bias is a result of the Bearish engulfing candle on Friday which broke down key level @ 1.07780 which also signifies a correction phase following the Bullish engulfing run on the 9th of Nov. 2020. Tendency: Temporary Downtrend ( Bearish ) Structure: Breakdown | Pennant | Supply & Demand Observation: i. Price moves upward with pivot highs and lows converging toward a single point giving the appearance of a Pennant pattern. ii. Breakdown of this pattern suggests a possible Reversal which could be the correction phase of the Bullish Impulse leg on the 9th of Nov. 2020. iii. Taking advantage of this setup might require patience for a correction/retest of Trendline or Key level @ 1.07780. iv. I anticipate a target extension within a minimum of 50 - 61.8% retracement which might as well extend to a 78.6% depending on market condition(s). Trading plan: SELL confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 60 pips. Risk/Reward: 1:3.5 Potential Duration: 1 to 5 days NB: This speculation can be considered to make decisions on lower timeframes. Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored. Risk Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including foreign exchange trading, CFDs, etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Long
by darcsherry
EURUSD | PERSPECTIVE FOR THE WEEKIt is over 150pips in our direction since my last publication on this pair (see link below for reference purposes); The “risk-off” situation going on globally appears to favor the US dollar as the Euro rejected the Demand zone and fell during the trading session on Friday to close below $1.17500 (making this level a Supply zone as Selling pressure increases from this area). Tendency: Downtrend ( Bearish ) Structure: Breakdown | Harmonic (AB = CD) Observation: i. The Breakdown of the $1.17500 level mid last month followed by a rejection of this level last week insinuates a risk of further decline in the coming week(s). ii. As the selling pressure continues to accumulate around $1.17500 - chances of a Breakdown of $1.1700 (Key Level) become greater. iii. It is worthy to note that the rejection of $1.17500 is exactly at a 61.8% retracement of AB Leg with a better chance of forming the AB = CD pattern as stated below; iv. ABCD parameters; a. Impulse A-to-B will be in harmony with the potential C-to-D leg. b. The B- to-C leg is at 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the A-to-B leg. c. The C-to-D leg is expected to fall within 127.2 - 1.414% Fib. ext. of the A-to-B move. Trading plan: SELL confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 180 pips. Risk/Reward: 1:4 Potential Duration: 2 to 6 days NB: This speculation can be considered to make decisions on lower timeframes. Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored. NirvanaForex Risk Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including foreign exchange trading, CFDs, etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Short
by darcsherry
NZDUSD | PERSPECTIVE FOR THE NEW WEEKThe dominant perspective that the Kiwi could suffer on new measures from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand brought forward on risk-off has a significant reflection on the chart as we experienced a Breakdown of Key level at $0.66000 after series of Bearish wave though the whole of last week. Tendency: Downtrend ( Bearish ) Structure: Double Top | Breakdown Observation: i. The arising of a Reversal pattern after price action reaches a peak at two consecutive times ($0.68000) with a moderate decline between the two highs to $0.66000 (neckline) confirms my Double Top pattern. ii. Breakdown of Key level @ $0.66000 (neckline) incites expectation of retest of this level to signal trading opportunities. iii. Confirmations of Sell aims at a touch of the Bullish trendline. Trading plan: SELL confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 400 pips. Risk/Reward: 1:3 Potential Duration: 4 to 10 days NB: This speculation can be considered to make decisions on lower timeframes. Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored. Risk Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including foreign exchange trading, CFDs, etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Short
by darcsherry
CADJPY | MY PERSPECTIVE FOR THE WEEKThe CAD continues to struggle through the first half of the month as the Yen looks to re-emphasize its dominance in the coming week(s). As I look forward to the Breakdown of Daily trendline, a correction/retest of this line might be a simple signal for me. Tendency: Downtrend ( Bearish ) Structure: Trendline | Breakdown | Reversal Pattern (Head and Shoulder) Observation: i. Bullish run that started in August 2020 culminated at Y81.600 followed by Lower Highs and Lows. ii. Breakdown of Neckline @ Y80.00 followed by a rejection of this zone is enough reason for me to support the Bearish bias on this one. iii. My Key level at Y79.300 appears to have been broken; it is also worthy to note here this level also coincides with the Trendline on Daily chart. Trading plan: SELL confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 250 pips. Risk/Reward: 1:3.5 Potential Duration: 5 to 10 days NB: This speculation can be considered to make decisions on lower timeframes. Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored. Risk Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including foreign exchange trading, CFDs, etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Short
by darcsherry
2
CADCHF | PERSPECTIVE FOR THE NEW WEEKWeak economic data and pressures on the oil market are taking a toll on the CAD as it continues to find it difficult to raise the bar. The sharp fall after reaching a peak of 0.70000 appears to hold ground. Tendency: Uptrend ( Bullish ) Structure: Trendline | Supply & Demand| Reversal Pattern (Head and Shoulder) Observation: i. Even though we are generally on an uptrend, it appears that correction into the Daily trendline is the aim of price action at this juncture. ii. Selling pressure continues to increase after the Breakdown of Neckline @ 0.69200 a couple of weeks ago. iii. Canada's retail sales index at 0.6% as showcased on Friday's data was also below expectation which increases doubt in the strength of the currency. iv. I am looking out for a Bearish signal in the following week(s) as the aim extends to hit Bullish Trendline on Day chart. Trading plan: SELL confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 110 pips. Risk/Reward: 1:2.5 Potential Duration: 2 to 6 days NB: This speculation can be considered to make decisions on lower timeframes. Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored. Risk Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including foreign exchange trading, CFDs, etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Short
by darcsherry
2