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Breakdowntrading

CHFJPY | Perspective for the new week | Follow-up detailsFollowing a 100pips move in our direction since my last publication on this pair (see link below for reference purposes), I see a short term opportunity as the current structure in the market insinuates that a temporary decline in price is imminent after observing a significant Breakdown of JY119.500 in the course of the last week trading session. b]Tendency: Downtrend (Bearish) Structure: Supply & Demand | Trendline | Reversal pattern (Breakdown) Observation: i. If we go as far back as August 2021, we will observe multiple rejections of the JY120.5000/120.000 zone; a feat that suggests a strong zone for the demand of Japanese Yen. ii. The visual representation of a line drawn under pivot lows in the last couple of weeks reveals the prevailing direction of price action which culminated at a peak of JY120.210 before the downward spiral. iii. The sudden Breakdown of this Bullish trendline during last week trading session reveals that buyers lost momentum. iii. However, It is worthy to note here that we are still within a good demand zone (JY119.000/119.200) for the Swiss Franc. iv. Following the Breakdown of the Key level @JY119.500, the retest of the Key level on Friday signals a change of baton as I anticipate a takeover from the sellers in the coming week. v. In this regard, below Key level remains a comfortable zone to sell the Swiss Franc with an opportunity to add to our existing position if the Demand zone no longer holds the selling pressure. vi. In the meantime, the Bearish bias on this pair remains temporary... Trade consciously!😊 Trading plan: SELL confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 100 pips. Risk/Reward : 1:3 Potential Duration: 1 to 4days NB: This speculation might be considered to make individual decisions on the lower timeframe. Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored. Risk Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Short
by darcsherry
USDCAD | Perspective for the new week | Follow-up detailsAs price moved in our direction since my last publication on this pair, we scooped over 350pips (see link below for reference purposes) before the reversal setup began. As at the moment, it appears that we are on the verge of a risk of further decline in the coming week(s) as the Dollar lost all it gained during the month of September 2021 and with the appearance of Head & Shoulder look alike, the possibility of a reversal increases. The Greenback may continue to decline in the coming week as the U.S. yields dropped despite stronger than expected inflation and consumer spending. Tendency: Downtrend (Bearish) Structure: Supply & Demand | Trendline | Reversal pattern (Head and Shoulder) Observation: i. The Loonie has been on a downward spiral since mid last year and the appearance of a reversal pattern at exactly 38.2% retracement of the Bearish Impulse leg cited on the weekly chart might be a signal confirming a risk of further decline in the coming week(s). ii. The visual representation of a line drawn under pivot lows reveals the bullish momentum of price action since the month of June 2021 but a drop in momentum can be seen in the recent pivot point as the price did not launch as high as the previous before the second breakdown of Trendline. iii. A baseline noted on the chart with three peaks, where the outside two are close in height and the middle is highest describes a specific formation that predicts a bullish-to-bearish trend reversal. iv. Completion of the reversal pattern can be confirmed at Breakdown/Retest of Neckline in the coming week as below C$1.26300 remains a comfortable level to sell the Dollar. v. It is worthy to note that C$1.263000 has a memory for selling opportunities in recent times (April 2021). vi. A Breakdown of the Neckline and Key level is a confluence for selling opportunities in the coming week with an option to add to our existing position at Breakdown/Retest of C$1.25000 level. NB: It is very possible that the projected decline in price might be a short term trend... Trade consciously!😊 Trading plan: SELL confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 300 pips. Risk/Reward : 1:4 Potential Duration: 3 to 10days NB: This speculation might be considered to make individual decisions on the lower timeframe. Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored. Risk Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Short
by darcsherry
AUDUSD | Perspsective for the new weekThe Aussie suffered the most on Tuesday after the Reserve Bank of Australia announced its decision to maintain its tapering plans, reducing its bond-buying purchases from A$5 billion to A$4 billion per week. Reaction after this decision is evident on the market as the price rejected $0.748000 to drop 1.81% during the course of last week trading session. In this regard, I am anticipating that the Aussie might turn bearish in the mid-term on a break below $0.73300. Tendency: Downtrend (Bearish) Structure: Breakdown | Supply & Demand | Trendline Observation: i. The Demand zone which has held price "supported" since the beginning of the year 2021 was finally broken to the downside in June/July 2021 to set a bearish tone on the market. ii. The line drawn above pivot highs is a visual representation that reveals the prevailing direction of price action since May 2021 and it appears price will continue to respect this line considering the current market structure. iii. This been said, it is pertinent that I state here that the early hours/days of the new week might see a price climb to test either the Trendline (forming a Double Top) or extend beyond to reject Key zone at around $0.75300 and $0.76000 (61.8% retracement of Impulse leg) to incite a risk of further decline in price. iv. And it is possible that this declination might transpose into a Harmonic pattern (AB = CD) with parameters explained below; a. Impulse A-to-B is expected to be in harmony with the potential C-to-D leg. b. The B- to-C is currently at a 50% retracement with the possibility of extending into 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the A-to-B leg. c. The C-to-D leg is expected to fall within 127.2 - 1.414% Fib. ext. of the A-to-B leg @ around $0.68800. v. So, at this juncture patience is indeed required as the market open will help us determine when it is most appropriate to hop in the decline train. NB: Below Key level appears to be the safest area to take on a short position... Trade consciously!😊 Trading plan: SELL confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 350 pips. Risk/Reward : 1:5 Potential Duration: 10 to 20days NB: This speculation might be considered to make individual decisions on the lower timeframe. Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored. Risk Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Short
by darcsherry
USDCNH | Perspective for the new week | Follow-up detailsEven though we held on to a 400pips move in our direction since my last publication on this pair; a sudden breakdown of Channel and Trendline coupled with the appearance of a Head & Shoulder pattern (see previous publication in the link below for reference purposes) insinuates a bearish momentum is imminent. Further consolidation amidst a mixed outlook remains the perspective of the market in the last couple of months and the momentum garnered by the buyers (correction phase) appears to be thinning out as the successful breakdown of Bullish Trendline insinuates a risk of further decline for the Greenback in the coming week(s). Tendency: Downtrend (Bearish) Structure: Breakdown | Trendline | Reversal pattern (Head & Shoulder/61.8% retracement) Observation: i. The Bearish Impulse which started in April 2021 went through a correction phase in the last 3 months to culminate @ CNY6.5300 area - an area that coincides with a 61.8% retracement of AB Leg. ii. The appearance of a baseline with three peaks, where the outside two are close in height and the middle is highest reveals a Head & Shoulders pattern describing a formation that predicts a bullish-to-bearish trend reversal. iii. During the course of last week trading session, we witnessed a significant rejection of CNY6.51000 level (2nd Head) which led to a confluence characterized by a breakdown of both Trendline and Key level @ CNY6.48500 hereby inciting a Bearish potential for me. iv. In as much as I am comfortable taking a sell position anywhere below my Key level, the degree of accuracy to this bias is expected to be confirmed once the price breaks down the Neckline @ CNY6.45000. v. A further breakdown of the Neckline might transpose into a Harmonic pattern (AB = CD) with extensions of CD leg aiming at CNY6.28000 area (127.2%) and a window to add to our existing position at Breakdown/Retest of CNY6.42000... Trade consciously!😊 Trading plan: SELL confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 750 pips. Risk/Reward : 1:6 Potential Duration: 7 to 14days NB: This speculation might be considered to make individual decisions on the lower timeframe. Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored. Risk Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Short
by darcsherry
USDCHF | Perspective for the new weekWith over 150pips move in our direction since my last publication on this pair (see link below for reference purposes); the price appears to be back at our previous Key level @ Fr0.91950 (see link below for reference purposes) with multiple rejections emphasizing selling opportunity for me. It is obvious that the Greenback rose during the last three days before declining with approximately 0.3% intraday to Fr0.91690 level on Friday to close below Key level hereby signaling risk of further decline in the coming week(s). Tendency: Downtrend (Bearish) Structure: Breakdown | Supply & Demand | Harmonic pattern (AB = CD) | Trendline Observation: i. Since the price hit Fr0.92400 to form a Double top structure, we witnessed a dramatic decline in the last week. ii. A significant breakdown of Fr0.91900 - a level which held price "supported" between 9th and 13th of August 2021 dictated the prevailing direction of price action as the price comes back to this same level with multiple rejections (18th - 20th of Aug 2021) and high hopes of a risk of further decline. iii. 78.6& retracement of AB leg followed by Breakdown of Key level and Bullish Trendline reveals seller's strength at this juncture in the market. iv. Structure characterized by multiple rejections of Key zone @ Fr0.91950 coinciding with a 78.6% retracement of AB leg suggests a "possible" transition into a Harmonic pattern (AB = CD) with parameters explained below; a. Leg A-to-B is expected to be in harmony with the potential C-to-D leg. b. The B- to-C leg makes a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the A-to-B leg. c. The C-to-D leg is expected to fall within 127.2 - 1.414% Fib. ext . of the A-to-B move @ Fr0.90600/0.90400 area. iv. If price continues in the direction projected, we shall be looking forward to adding to our existing position at a breakdown/Retest of Fr0.91500... Trade consciously!😊 Risk/Reward : 1:5 Potential Duration: 2 to 5days NB: This speculation might be considered to make individual decisions on the lower timeframe. Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored. Risk Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Short
by darcsherry
CHFJPY | Perspective for the new week | Follow-up detailsWith a break-even position on this pair and considering the appearance of a Double top structure, I suspect that price is going through a correction phase in anticipation of a rally in the coming week hence an opportunity to take a quick trade in the opposite direction of my last speculation arises (see link below for reference purposes). Tendency: Downtrend (Bearish) Structure: Breakdown | Supply & Demand | Reversal pattern (Double Top) | Trendline Observation: i. Since the 20th of July 2021, the price has continued to find a higher high and appear to have found a roadblock @ Y121.200 following a double rejection of this level. ii. Double Top: The appearance of an extremely bearish technical reversal pattern after the price reached a peak two consecutive times (Y121.200 & Y121.130 respectively) with a moderate decline between the two highs and it is confirmed when the price fell below support level equal to the low between the two prior highs (Neckline @ Y120.500). iii. In view of my last speculation on this pair, I suspect that the double top at this juncture in the market signals a medium-term trend change in price with the anticipation of a rally in the nearest future. iv. In this regard, the neckline remains a Key level for a short-term bearish continuation. v. Please note that the early hours/days of the new week might see price climb to test Y120.750/120.900 area to incite bearish continuation...Trade consciously!😊 Trading plan: SELL confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 80 pips. Risk/Reward : 1:3 Potential Duration: 2 to 5days NB: This speculation might be considered to make individual decisions on the lower timeframe. Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored. Risk Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Short
by darcsherry
GBPAUD | Perspective for the new week | Follow-up detailsWith over 600pips in our direction since my last publication on this pair (see link below for reference purposes); The price hit a peak around AU$1.85000 in June 2021 and has since then continued to find lower lows. The appearance of a Double Top structure on the chart is a very strong clue that hints at a reversal momentum building as we experience a significant Breakdown of Key level I @ AU$1.84100 during the course of last week trading session. In the UK, the newly appointed Health Secretary Sajid Javid insisted that the reopening remains intact, showing confidence about returning to normal. However, as cases continue rising – and hospitalizations are inching higher – market participants tend to cast doubt over loosening of restrictions on July 19 which might have a negative impact if not indecision on the Pound in the coming week(s). Tendency: Downtrend (Bearish) Structure: Breakdown | Supply & Demand | Channel | Reversal pattern (Double Top & Triple Top) Observation: i. It has been a Bullish run for the Pound since the beginning of the year - 2021 hereby hitting a peak @ AU$1.85000 which is followed by a lower high to transition into a Descending Channel. ii. The inability of price to touch and surpass the previous high (AU$1.85000) increases doubt on a further rally as a Double Top pattern emerges on the chart. iii. Double Top: We do have an extremely bearish technical reversal pattern in play after the price reached a peak two consecutive times (AU$1.85000 & AU$1.84800 respectively) with a moderate decline between the two highs. iv. Even as we await a confirmation which will happen if the price falls below the support level @ AU$1.82700 (Neckline of Double Top) that equals the low between the two prior highs; there is an evident structure that occurred between 30th June & 2nd July 2021 which is characterized by multiple rejections of AU$1.84600 (Triple Top) that signals Bearish tendency in the coming week(s). v. TRIPLE TOP: formation of three peaks moving into the same zone @ AU$1.84600, with pullbacks in between can be considered complete immediately the price broke down pattern support @ AU$1.84000 on the 2nd of July 2021, indicating a further price slide in the coming week(s). vi. The early hours/days of the new week might see a price climb to test the Neckline of Triple Top @ AU$1.84000 to incite further decline. vii. If a climb happens, I have identified a niche around AU$1.83900/1.84400 for selling opportunities. viii. A plunge below Key level II @ $1.83500 (Breakdown/Retest) might welcome an addition to the existing position and a further plunge below AU$1.82700 welcomes another addition... Trade consciously! :) Trading plan: SELL confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 150 pips. Risk/Reward : 1:6 Potential Duration: 3 to 7days NB: This speculation might be considered to make individual decisions on the lower timeframe. Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored. Risk Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Short
by darcsherry
2
CADCHF | Perspective for the new weekCommodity markets struggle to rebound, but the Canadian dollar remained under strong pressure even at the latter part of last week trading session. The appearance of a Double Top structure ( a strong reversal pattern) on the chart confirms that the price has found a peak @ Fr0.75000 and has since the beginning of May 2021 continue to find lower lows which culminated in the Breakdown of Key level @ Fr0.74000 - a level that has kept price "supported" for 42days. Tendency: Downtrend (Bearish) Structure: Breakdown | Supply & Demand | Reversal pattern (Double Top) Observation: i. i. Double Top: Confirmation of an extremely bearish technical reversal pattern that formed after the price reached a peak two consecutive times with a moderate decline between the two highs insinuates a risk of further decline in the coming week(s). ii. A successful Breakdown of the Neckline area (Key level) on the 9th of June 2021 was followed by multiple rejections of the same zone. iii. Multiple rejections of the Fr0.74000 area projects a new supply niche for future selling opportunity @ Fr0.7400/0.74400; this is evident in the activities that occurred in the latter part of last week trading session. iv. Shooting star: the price tried to rise significantly during the last two days (17th/18th June 2021), but then the sellers took over and pushed the price back down toward the open of the previous day to close below the neckline. v. In this regard, it appears to be appropriate that we look for a trading opportunity below the neckline in the coming week... Trade consciously! 😊 Trading plan: SELL confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 220 pips. Risk/Reward : 1:8 Potential Duration: 6 to 12days NB: This speculation might be considered to make individual decisions on the lower timeframe. Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored. Risk Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Short
by darcsherry
USDCNH | Perspective for the new week The price moved against expectation as it continues to find lower lows in the last one month (you might want to see the link below for reference purposes); As part of China’s move to create awareness of its digital Yuan, authorities in Shanghai is planning to distribute $3 million worth of the central bank-issued currency among residents of Shanghai in the form of a lottery. Coupled with the appearance of a Descending Channel, this development appears to give a level of cynosure for investors as I anticipate a risk of further decline for the USDCNH pair in the coming week(s). Tendency: Downtrend (Bearish) Structure: Supply & Demand | Channel | Breakdown | Harmonic pattern (AB = CD) Observation: i. Since late March 2021, the price has been caught up within a Descending channel as the Greenback experiences risk of further decline in the nearest future. ii. As represented on the chart, connecting the lower highs and lower lows of price action with parallel trendlines reveals a downward trend that appears to hold following the Breakdown and retest of Y6.41000. iii. Below the Key level @ Y6.39600 remains a yardstick for entry opportunity as I look forward to a transition into a Harmonic pattern (AB = CD) with parameters explained below; a. Impulse A-to-B is expected to be in harmony with the potential C-to-D leg. b. The B- to-C leg is currently at 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (with the possibility of a 78.6%) of the A-to-B leg. c. The C-to-D leg is expected to fall within 127.2 - 1.414% Fib. ext . of the A-to-B move @ Y6.32000 area. Trading plan: SELL confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 550 pips. Risk/Reward : 1:4 Potential Duration: 4 to 8 days NB: This speculation might be considered to make individual decisions on the lower timeframe. Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored. Risk Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Short
by darcsherry
2
GBPCAD | Perspective for the new week | Follow-upAfter moving over 400pips since our last publication on this pair (see link below for reference purposes), the price continued to find lower lows as it Breaks down of CA$1.71500 thereby making the Breakout on the 19th of April a false one (a feat recognized by the plunge in oil price). The Supply zone around CA$1.71000/1.72000 zone emphasizes the selling pressure at this juncture in the market as the Bears continue to hunt down the weekly lows. A rebound in oil prices coupled with the release of better-than-expected domestic Retail Sales figures appears to have prompted fresh "selling" as Loonie appears to regain her dominance in the nearest future. Tendency: Downtrend ( Bearish ) Structure: Breakdown | Supply & Demand | Channel Observation: i. Connecting the lower highs and lower lows of price with parallel trendlines since Jan 2021 depicts a downward trend and emphasize the prevailing direction of price action. ii. The latter part of last month (Apr 2021) witnessed a successful Breakdown of CA$1.715000 (Demand zone) - a level that held price "supported" for 43 days. iii. Following the Breakdown of CA$1.71500, we saw price reject this zone multiple times in the last 17days to confirm a Supplication zone @ CA$1.71000/1.72000. iv. In this regard, below Key level II @ CA$1.70800 shall be a yardstick for selling opportunity in the coming week with the aim of completing the Channel... Trade consciously :) Trading plan: SELL confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 300 pips. Risk/Reward : 1:6 Potential Duration: 8 to 14 days NB: This speculation might be considered to make individual decisions on the lower timeframe. Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored. Risk Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including foreign exchange trading, CFDs, etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Short
by darcsherry
EURAUD | Perspective for the new week | Follow-UpAfter enjoying 200pips move on four different occasions (a total of 800pips) since my last publication ( see link below for reference purposes); we are at a juncture in the market for selling opportunity as Buyers find it difficult to penetrate and breakthrough AU$1.57000 zone in the last 3 months. On the weekly chart; I am of the opinion that the third wave of a Bearish momentum that began mid-March 2020 is about to explode again after noticing the appearance of a converging trend line holding a consolidation phase in the last couple of months. The successful Breakdown of Key level @ AU$1.56200 followed by multiple rejections of this zone (Supplication area) signals the possibility of Seller's turning the table for a nosedive as the value of the Aussie has a tendency to soar in the coming week(s). Tendency: Downtrend ( Bearish ) Structure: Breakdown | Supply & Demand | Pennant Observation: i. Bearish Pennant: a consolidation period with converging trend lines formed after a Bearish Impulse leg (Flag-pole) is expected to be followed with a breakout movement in the same direction as the initial Impulse leg. ii. In as much as I anticipate a Breakdown of the converging trendline to the downside, the key level @ AU$1.56200 shall be a yardstick in the coming as anywhere below this level seems to be a safe haven to trigger an entry. iii. I shall anticipate adding to my position at the Breakdown/Retest of AU$1.55000 area in the coming week(s). iv. CAUTION: Please note that a Break above AU$1.56500 shall render this setup invalid and reverting to my previous publication (see link below) becomes necessary for a rally continuation... Trade consciously! :) Trading plan: SELL confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 400 pips. Risk/Reward : 1:6 Potential Duration: 7 to 15 days NB: This speculation might be considered to make individual decisions on the lower timeframe. Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored. Risk Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including foreign exchange trading, CFDs, etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Short
by darcsherry
USDJPY | Perspective for the new week | Follow-upWith an astronomical 500pips run in our direction since my last speculation (see link here below for reference purposes); It appears the character displayed by price action lately has found a safe haven for Supplication @ Y109.500 area thereby welcoming a Selling bias for me in the coming week(s). At this point in a very Bullish trend, the market is looking as if it is trying to figure out where to go next as the thrust from Pivot III did not have enough momentum to find a new high and considering the sharp rejection of the Y109.500 area during last week trading session; it appears that the Greenback risk a further decline. Can inflation rescue the dollar? Let's see! Tendency: Downtrend ( Bearish ) Structure: Supply & Demand | Trendline | Reversal pattern Observation: i. The Bullish run that began late January 2021 which is characterized by series of higher swing highs and higher lows appears to have found a peak @ Y111.000 after what looks like a setup transitioning into a downtrend after hitting a brick @ Y109.500 level. ii. The present structure has a high tendency of changing to a series of lower highs and lower lows in the coming week(s) as I anticipate a Breakdown of the Bullish trendline in the nearest future. iii. I will like to call our attention to the Supply zone @ Y109.300/110.000 area; This level was a very strong Sell window before the Breakout on the 30th of Mar 2021 followed by a Breakdown on the 7th of April 2021 and since this day we have witnessed price trading under this level throughout the month of April 2021. iv. With my Key level holding @ Y108.500, I shall be looking forward to taking advantage of a decline below the key level this week. v.This been said, there is an opportunity to add a position to your existing trade when price does a further breakdown/retest of Demand level @ Y107.500. vi. CAUTION: On the contrary; it could be a rally (bullish) continuation when price breaks above Supply zone and retest to find new demand level at this juncture... Trade consciously!:) Trading plan: SELL confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 300 pips. Risk/Reward : 1:5 Potential Duration: 10 to 20days NB: This speculation might be considered to make individual decisions on the lower timeframe. Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored. Risk Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including foreign exchange trading, CFDs, etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Short
by darcsherry
EURJPY | Perspective for the new week | Follow-upThe price continues to hover around our previous Supplication area (see link below for reference purposes); The Euro has been unable to sustain its move to a new high following price inability to Break above the Y130.600 area. After culminating @ Y130.680, a Double Top pattern emerges with tendencies that support the beginning of a Corrective phase. We finally experience a Breakdown of Ascending channel during last week trading session a sign that the price no longer respects the Channel. I am of the opinion that this sudden Breakdown might be a Temporary dimension to price action (Corrective phase) in anticipation of a rally continuation in the nearest future. Tendency: Temporary Downtrend ( Bearish ) Structure: Breakdown | Supply & Demand | Double Top (Reversal pattern) | Ascending Channel Observation: i. EURJPY appears to be bullish from the perspective of a long-term outlook; Price has respected the Ascending Channel since late January 2021. ii. The Breakdown of the Neckline coinciding with a breakdown of the Channel is a signal that Buyers have lost their momentum and a new direction is evolving. iii. In the last 17days, Y129.750 has been a significant area as a Breakdown/Breakout of this area has dictated the prevailing direction of price action. iv. The Neckline @ Y129.750 shall be my Key level in the coming week(s) as I anticipate a correction (retest) after the Breakdown that happened last week to join the decline train. iv. This been said, after completion of the correction of the Breakdown in the coming week(s); any area below Key level will be good for me to join the decline train. Trade consciously :)! Trading plan: SELL confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 170 pips. Risk/Reward : 1:4 Potential Duration: 4 to 10days NB: This speculation might be considered to make individual decisions on the lower timeframe. Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored. Risk Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including foreign exchange trading, CFDs, etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Short
by darcsherry
EURGBP | Perspective for the new week | Follow-UpWith over 350pips in the kitty, the price continues deep lower in our favour since my last publication on this pair (see link below for reference purposes). As the tendency for price finding lower lows increases, I suspect that the Euro risk a further decline in the coming week(s) on the back of the Pound finding "better days"! In this regard, a very simple set-up here-in reveals a short-term trading opportunity we can take advantage of. Tendency: Downtrend ( Bearish ) Structure: Breakdown | Supply & Demand | Trendline Observation: i. Buyers loose the grip of pushing the price higher from Demand level GBP0.87500 mid Feb 2021. ii. Breakdown of Key level @ GBP0.87500 followed by a rejection of this level last Friday with "shooting stars" pronounces a the strength sellers have at this juncture in the market. iii. Bearish Trendline: The line drawn over pivot highs (Pivots I, II & III on the chart) reveals the prevailing direction of price action. iii. I am expecting the recent lower lows to transpose into an ABCD pattern with parameters explained below; a. Leg A-to-B is expected to be in harmony with the potential C-to-D leg. b. The B- to-C leg at 61.8% (with a possible 78.6% in the future) Fibonacci retracement of the A-to-B leg. c. The C-to-D leg is expected to fall within 127.2 - 1.414% Fib. ext. of the A-to-B move @ GBP0.84500 area. iv. In the coming week(s); the GBP0.86750 level will be regarded as a yardstick to maintain my Bearish expectations on this pair. Trading plan: SELL confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 220 pips. Risk/Reward : 1:5 Potential Duration: 7 to 12 days NB: This speculation might be considered to make individual decisions on the lower timeframe. Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored. Risk Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including foreign exchange trading, CFDs, etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Short
by darcsherry
9
AUDUSD | Perspective for the new weekThere are possibilities that the Greenback might gain some ground against the Aussie in the coming week... Following the Bullish run; Price finally hits a peak @ $0.78200 at the beginning of the new year followed by successive Lower Lows channelled through a descending range culminating into a successful Breakdown of Key level @ $0.76800 last week. Tendency: Downtrend ( Bearish ) Structure: Reversal pattern | Breakdown | Supply & Demand | Channel Observation: i. Breakdown of key level @ $0.78600 during the course of last week trading session followed by an immediate rejection of this level signals risk of further decline in the coming week(s). ii. The sharp rejection of $0.77000 level makes this level a new Supply zone to watch out for Shorting opportunity in the coming week. iii. It is also worthy to note that the Breakdown of Descending channel @ $0.76000 reveals the strong tendency of Sellers at this juncture in the market and might also be a strong area for rejection after a successful Breakdown in the nearest future. iv. Conscious trading might scream "patience" allowing a Breakdown to happen hereby looking forward to taking advantage of the rejection. Trading plan: SELL confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 150 pips. Risk/Reward : 1:3 Potential Duration: 1 to 5 days NB: This speculation can be considered to make decisions on lower timeframes. Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored. Risk Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including foreign exchange trading, CFDs, etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Short
by darcsherry
4