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Will BTC reach 30K+ or it will dump? BTCUSDT updateHi dear community my loyal followers, I hope you are fine. Let me update BTC current situation and my expectation. This week BTC pumped from 19.5K and broke not only 24K but also 25.2K and reached 27.8K. If you remember I warned you about BTC recent dump from 25K to 19K+-. At the moment, you can see on the chart that BTC has created Bullish megaphone chart pattern/Inverted symmetrical triangle/ and tested its upper line where there is significant, one of the strongest resistance/.. There are BB, FVG zone, 0.38 fib level, 21 monthly EMA, diagonal resistance+ horizontal resistance/ etc. Look at bellow attached charts also to understand what I mean. I expect BTC to break 1h bull flag reaching 28.6K/attached bellow/ , which will be fake breakout of bullish megaphone chart pattern / a lot people will open long positions, at the same time BTC sweeps liquidity above 27.8K then we' will see strong rejection and correction starts. When BTC reaches 28.6K , BTCD will be at 48-48.5K at main resistance/attached bellow/, where it will drop and during this BTC correction , we'll see mini altseason. Pay attention that volume is decreasing while price is rising/bearish divergence/ also there is bearish divergence at daily OBV which doesn't support this pump)). I expect BTC to drop 22.6-22.8K where there is OB+FVG + 0.618 Fib zone, if BTC can't hold the mentioned zone it will dump to 20.5K. During this drop price will react at 25.2K small bounce, then drops to 0.5fib level/23.6K/ again bounce/this level could hold as well/ and drops to 22.6-22.8K taking out IDM/sweep liquidity/ Also keep your eyes at 23.6K 0.5 fib level, which is mid range of megaphone chart pattern. there is chance it can hold as well, but more likely 22.6-22.8K will be reached. After the mentioned scenario we'll see new highs, at the moment I can't tell you 22.6-22.8K will hold or not, we'll see BTC reaction at that point. Please don't forget to like, follow and share my ideas. I will appreciate any kinds of support.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by ergal91
4
Retail vs. Smart Money - Truth vs. Manipulation tutorial - *SMT* SMT= Smart Money Theory. Look at the related idea for a previous tutorial on this. This will be a continuation of that tutorial, how we're taught to trade is manipulation tactics by the institutions, and how to realize whats actually happening. When I first started, I started to learn how to trade under a an MLM company called iMarkets Live. Some instructors were good and were starting to catch on to what was happening to price action. Others just marked levels,. or tried to use way too many jndicators to find a trade. I ended up losing a lot of money that year because there was no cohesion. I find myself asking "why?" a lot. And if this "Trade the trend is supposed to work so well, why was I getting screwed so bad everytime I went to trade off that trend line. Until I fdinally found the one person who dug deep into the charts and found the truth and I've never seen any other trade get more accurate while trading live. 1. Price is manipulated on every chart. That is their commodity to protect and they'll go down in flames protecting their commodity. Whether that commodity is currency or stocks, there's someone or groups that own enough to control the chart. And that algorithm re-starts everydsay at midnight NY Time. Just before the London session starts 2. The charts above represent what a smart Money Technical Analyst would create for his chart, the second is the retail theory, how your "Taught" to think what tedhnical analysis is supposed to be. Fore example, you would normally out a trendline going down atop the downtrend, and when the price breaks that down trend then you'll told wait for the "Retest" of the price to hit that trend line. But sometimes it doesn't and you've missed your opportunity at a breakaway right? No, you just followed the wrong path on how to read price action. And could've caught that breakaway knowingt that it's not "retesting" the top trendline, instead it's finding the last price that the institutions sold off hard to try and make the retail traders sell as well. Evidently they were successful because the institution then come in and buy it up and a huge discount. And they buy up so much at the start of the run, it breaks the structures previous swing high In fact they probabloy are still holding a short position near that swing high so aftyer it breaks the high and closes above it, it retraces slightly back to the price area of the the previous high. Why? So they can then breakeven on the trade of holding that short while also capitalizing on the long they are taking because of how much of a discount they were able to buy up. Lets take the current chart for example. When you see the price formation of a low / high / lower low, The last bullish candle in the high formation is now Resistance that will turn Support. I have the Low / High / Lower Low Color Coordinated with it's Breaker Blocks Border or just "Breaker." As you can see it, each time it breaks the previous structures high (Where I write Break of structure with a line at the top of previous DAILY body that was broke and closed abnove, thje price then slighjtly retreats, back into that High candle's price range, doesn't close below it and then makes another large move to the upside. Its retreating down to a place where they could still be hold a short from the previous quarter (yes, you read that right, they have deep pockets, they can be in the red forever and ity weon't matter, they;'ll manipulate it until they get what's theirs, this is why Larry Williams has 90 day lookbacks in his analysis) Here's the scary part. Now that you have read that and it seems so obvious and your going "Why was I taught to think about it like this?" (See Next Chart) I was taught to think of analysis this way, I'm sure you have at one point. When the trendline breaks then we should see a retest and more bullish trend / channel. However, after it breaks the trendline, it didn't retest, neither is it really following the "Channel" it created. It's inside the channel but Following the trend as you would like to see, correct? even if we look a little closer on the 4 hour it looks further off Why is it not doing exactly as we were taught it should? Because we were taught wrong. Price doesn't know if it's following a channel, it doersn't know if it's creating a Triangle, it doesn't know if it's making a flag. What does it remember? Price levels. Therefore, the way we were taught was wrong and the correct way to look at support and resistance is actually an area within a price range. Why? As mentioned before, it's the institutions ,manipulating the charts to retreat back to an are to where it may have been holding a short and is now looking to break even while cranking up the long earnings. This is all by design. Now look at the chart again with how I just explained it, look for the break of structure, check for the close above the previous swing high close, then see where the price falls to, check to see if it is within a high of a previous swing high candle. If it breaks lower and closes lower, then we have 1 of 2 things 1) Price could have run into a Bearish Breaker (Where you have a High / Low / Higher High and the Low of that formation is a breaker that reject the price and we could see the price start to retrace lower. or 2) Also Look to see if the Break of structure that was broken has a string of balanced bullish candles to form one large Breaker. If so, the price may look like it is lower than what it should, but still within the breraker. i.e. CURRENT PRICE (see chart) We have a large breaker if you consider the two balanced bullish candles on the far left. If the are balanced, they act as one candle (Meaning their wicks touch, there's no fair value gap) See Chart - So I see this as still being within the Bullish vain, and we'll have to see if it's going to keep reaching for the break of structure. Why is it going tio the break of Structure? That is where the Liquidity is sitting by the retail user and the institutions want to take that liquidity for their own pockets. Howevever, We'll Save Liquidity for Next "Smart Money Knowledge Tutorial" If you have any questions please shoot them below. I'll do my best to answer. If it doesn't make sense to you and you see a flaw in my analysis, a flaw in my reasoning as to why it would be manipulated, please let me know. Personally, I like having an answer as to why price does what it does, which is why I am behind the Smart Money theory of Manipulation. It makes way more sense than the previous explanation of "It just breaks trend and will continue in that direction." ..... where I feel "This is the area price was before on a short and the institutions need to break even after blowing past it making profit up to that point" I hope I was able to break this "Smart Money" theory down a bit further and was able to help make sense of thewe things.l This was inspired by a meme I had seen on LinkedIn of the price running up pasty the break of structure and there's a trendline on top of the rear down slope and the price retests and starts moving up. The meme was based off this with a person almost in tears of joy. My point? Don't see the price action as a result above. Understand it as this I went to write my explanation that was a different interpretation and by the time I finished I couldn't find the Meme again. So I felt it was my calling to continue writing a major Smart Money Analysis points that many people need to see and hear. If you enjoy these explainations of Smart Money, please let me know and I'll continue on a series of these with a point behind each one. Thank you! - Bodies X Wix OANDA:GBPUSD FX:GBPUSD CAPITALCOM:GBPUSD
Education
by BodiesXWix
7
EUR/USD 1H BREAKER BLOCK TRADE IDEAGreetings traders, I will outline the short I am currently eyeing on EUR/USD. If you pay attention to market structure it should be clear to you that EUR/USD is in a long-term downtrend and therefore higher probability trades will be found shorting this pair - the trend is your friend as they say. If you look at your 4H chart you will see the area of resistance which forced EUR/USD lower this week, this being the 4H bearish order block. Moving onto the 1H chart we see that the market stop hunted the highs at June 22nd, rejecting at the close of the 4H bearish order block (4H -OB), then broke market structure to the downside as indicated by the grey horizontal arrow. Once this price action occurs, the bearish candle before the stop hunt is validated as a bearish breaker block (represented in the chart by the red rectangle and labelled as 1H -BB) and all one would need to do is wait patiently until price returns to the breaker to have a high probability bearish trade. That my friends is exactly what I aim to do - my entry lies a few pipettes below the close of the 1H -BB and my stop loss lies above the high of the breaker block. My targets are at the sellside liquidity pools below the respective lows of June 23rd but I will not marry this idea. Depending on how the market behaves I will take partials or close the trade entirely. Remember traders, anything can happen in the market, the astute trader acknowledges this and seeks to manage risks while waiting patiently on his preferred setups. This is what is needed in order to thrive long-term in this game. Hopefully the market reaches our entry point, if it doesn't, unlucky, we move. If the trade loses, unlucky, we move, but one thing is for certain, we move. May the markets be with you.
Short
by CorpusFX
EUR/USD 1H FOMC TRADE ANALYSISHello traders, I will first preface this by saying trading FOMC is not recommended and this is simply a price action exercise. Moving on to the interesting stuff, this is what I see FOMC producing if we get a bullish leg first. Price will likely run up towards the low of the bearish mitigation block seen on the daily chart, this block contains an hourly bearish order block where institutions can add onto their already bearish positions. Volatility will most likely be extremely high with this FOMC announcement, therefore if price does go according to this analysis we could see targets for partials at 1.03578, 1.03341 and if price really gets away the monthly bullish fair value gap could fill all the way to 1.02500. Ofcourse, price could simply immediately fall from its current price at 2pm EST and never give a chance at entry for this trade idea or the stop loss for this trade could be hit, this is trading, anything can happen. P.S This post may feel rushed that's because it is, I wanted to get this published before the FOMC announcement. However, I will be sure to provide a more detailed analysis of my idea once I have more time. May the markets be with you.
Short
by CorpusFX
GBP/USD 4H Indicating BearishnessHi traders, it's yet another week and this means fresh opportunities in the majors. Today I bring to your attention the short position I am currently holding on GBP/USD . This pair is currently in a longterm downtrend, therefore the highest probability trades will be found shorting the pair, this frames my bias. On May 4th the market ran just above the high of April 29th on FOMC volatility , the market then returned below this high, breaking market structure in the process, traders using institutional concepts refer to this as the stop hunt. With this framework, once price returned to the breaker which initiated the stop hunt, I entered my short positions. The stop loss of the trade is placed above the 4H breaker block (the block is represented by the red rectangle ) and my final take profit level is placed at the high of the 4H fair value gap. The level represented by the blue line indicates where I will take my first partial if price moves in my favour. I have selected this level since it is an area of mitigation and so price can bounce from there. More details of the overall framework of this trade is explained in further detail in my first publication, which can be seen below this publication in the "related ideas" section. I really appreciate you for reading this post and remember, buy/sell at levels that make sense and let the market do the rest. May the markets be with you.
Short
by CorpusFX
2
BTC where is the bottom Part 3Hi Birdies, So many week passes since we did the bottom analysis so here it is. Analysis The Blue block is the order block which has higher chances of hitting because its getting support from 200 Weekly-MA The Gray block which is untested and as per Smart Money concept everything should be mitigated. Also it is getting support from 300 Weekly-MA This Gray block also has higher chances why? Because in covid-2020 BTC bottomed on 300 Weekly-MA the Red Dot Actions BTC will retest 50 Weekly-MA before coming down so 43,000 - 46,500 is the point of short Meanwhile do swing trades and stay safe and blessed
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by BlackBirdTrading
9
Bullish GBP/USD Trade Prediction and AnalysisOn May 9th we see price run below the low of May 6th and then quickly reverses back above the low (the stop hunt). Price then breaks market structure to the upside, as indicated on the chart by the grey arrow pointing to the right. If you read my previous post, then you are aware of what we are looking for as institutional traders once we see this type of price action, if you didn't you can read my previous post via the "Related Ideas" section at the end of this post. Institutional traders directly highlight the bullish candle which initiated the stop hunt beneath the low of May 6th. This is our 1H bullish ICT breaker block and it is represented by the dark blue rectangle on the chart. Notice how price is currently accumulating within the breaker block (the calm before the storm). My entry was taken just below the equal lows of the May 10th 06:00 (UTC-4) candle and the May 9th 10:00 (UTC-4) candle. I placed my entry here because I expected price to stop hunt the sell side liquidity below these equal lows (this stop hunt is shown by the higher white line). Notice how the candle I entered on trades below the white line and then reverses, closing above it. This is the exact same phenomenon which occurred on May 9th and can be seen more clearly on a lower timeframe. My stop loss is placed below the close of the 1H +OB (represented by the light blue rectangle) giving the trade sufficient room to breathe. My target is placed above the current high of the week (represented by the lower green line) at the start of the imbalance formed on May 5th (represented by the upper green line). The trade is framed on the weekly bullish order block equilibrium level. Price doesn't quite reach this level but given the market is currently trading within the 1W +OB the trade is still valid. The market could trade as far as the 1D -BB level represented on the chart by the red line before we see any selling return. Note that GBP/USD is currently in a long-term downtrend and as such this is a counter-trend trade. Price could easily fall beneath the lows of May 9th and continue its downward trend. As traders, all we can do is follow our rules, buy and sell at levels which make sense and let the market handle the rest. If this trade loses I will not be bothered or angry because no system is perfect. A wise man called Mark Douglas once said "the trades we lose are the expenses we pay in order to be available for the trades that win," or something like that haha. The point is there will be losers and winners, as long as your winners pay more than your losing trades take away, you can make it in this business. Thank you for reading and may the markets be with you.
Long
by CorpusFX
GBP/USD Bullish Breaker Block Trade AnalysisIn my last publication I discussed the bearish breaker block so I thought it only appropriate to follow up with an analysis of a trade taken using the bullish breaker block. This is a similar setup to the one I last discussed on EUR/USD, except that it was bullish and on the lower 15m timeframe. Do not be fooled however, this trade was taken with a higher timeframe level in mind. This level was the equilibrium of the 1W bullish order block shown in the chart image below. These higher timeframe levels are very reliable since institutions trade off of them. Furthermore, given that GBP/USD has been in a longterm downtrend, I am only interested in taking bullish setups which form at higher timeframe levels i.e levels on the 1M, 1W and the 1D. On April 13th the market runs below the low of April 8th and then quickly returns above the low, back into the range (the stop hunt), but why does this price action occur? In and around this April 8th low lies sell side liquidity in the form of market orders to sell GBP/USD whenever price gets in and around this level. Breakout traders who would have sold the pair once the April 8th low was broken in hope of a breakout and traders who would be taking profits after shorting the pair at higher prices all have market sell orders at this level. Banks need all of this liquidity in order to pair with their huge buy orders, hence why the market "sweeps" the liquidity below the April 8th low and then turns bullish. Once price runs the low and returns into the range we look for the bullish candle which initiated the stop hunt below the low, this is the green candle before the bearish momentum, as seen on the chart. This is our ICT bullish breaker and it is represented by the blue rectangle in the chart. To trade it we wait until price breaks convincingly above its high, personally I wait for a break in market structure (BMS), and then entry is made on a retest of the breaker block's open. Note that the high of the breaker can also be used, however, using the open price allows for a smaller stop loss. Since this breaker was so small I used its high as my entry and my stop loss was placed below the low of the 15m order block. My stop loss was placed here because price should not violate this level if banks are seeking higher prices, if this level is violated then all interest in longs are lost and I accept my loss and remain on the sidelines. Additionally, I didn't place my stop loss directly below the low of the bullish breaker because this is a smaller timeframe and the stop loss would have been too small for my liking. Personally, I like to give my trades the necessary room to breathe, allowing for some movement against my entry. My target was the first buy side liquidity (bsl) area where banks will take profit by selling their longs. I have also outlined a 2nd buy side liquidity area which can be seen clearer on the chart if you scroll to the left. This post in combination with my previous one provides a complete guide on trading ICT breaker blocks. Thanks for reading and may the markets be with you.
Long
by CorpusFX
EUR/USD BREAKER BLOCK TRADE ANALYSISHi traders, today I breakdown the price action on EU from an institutional perspective. Recall EU has been in a longterm downtrend for quite a while now. Therefore the highest probability setups will be found when shorting this currency pair. Notice how the high created on April 21st just peaks above the old high of April 14 and then returns into the range. Smart money concept traders call this a stop hunt . It triggers buy side orders, giving institutions the liquidity they need to load on their shorts. Whenever we see this price action, the institutional trader immediately looks for the bearish candle which initiated the move (the red candle before the bullish momentum). This bearish candle is referred to as the ICT breaker block (represented by the lower red rectangle on the chart). There is also a second breaker block (represented by the upper red rectangle) but this one is seen clearer on the 4H chart. When trading the bearish breaker block we wait until price convincingly breaks below the block's low (this occurred on April 22nd) we then short the market whenever price returns to the close of the BB. As shown in the chart, I was able to short EU on a sell limit order at 1.0825 (banks trade at rounded numbers and 5 levels e.g 1.0820, 1.0825, 1.0830, 1.0835 etc. so my entries are always rounded to the nearest 5 or 0 level). My stop loss was placed above the high of the 4H bearish breaker. Why ? well if price violates this level I no longer want to be in the trade as the market would be showing a willingness to go higher. My targets were set at the lows of April 14th and April 19th. Represented on the chart by ssl (sell side liquidity) since banks would use this type of liquidity to take profits, buying back the pair since they shorted it (remember to take profits from a short position you have to buy back the asset). I did not manage to get full targets on this trade given it was Friday and I never hold trades over the weekend. I closed half of the position as price dipped into the ssl and the remaining portion I closed 1 hour before market close on Friday. Thanks for reading and may the markets be with you.
Short
by CorpusFX
6