Cup & Handle Season: How to Spot an Invalid Cup&Handle BreakoutIt's Cup & Handle Season! There have been multiple cup and handles that have formed all around the altcoin market recently in what I am going to dub as cup and handle season. I'm out hunting for valid cup and handles and while most of them this time around seems like they will eventually be validated....it is easy to get faked out by these patterns and think the top of the cup and even the handle has already formed when in reality the cup is deeper than you originally thought and the handle has not yet occurred. I'm using Cardano as the main example here because it illustrates this fake out quite well. There ahave been a few more of these type of fakeouts around the altcoin market and I will also be posting snapshots of those as well. As you can see here, the inner cup and handle was not the valid cup and handle and where we thought it had broken the neckline a few things occurred at that point that signaled to us that it actually hadn't broken the neckline. First and foremost we didn't get a huge boost of bull volume that needs to accompany such a breakout in order for it to be valid. This volume boost should occur after 3 consecutive 4hr candle closes above the rims neckline. 2nd, we got nowhere near the top of the dotted projected price target line, and 3rd where we turned around and the price started falling back down there was a candle tip on the left side of the cup that we could connect a horizontal trendline to and form a new higher neckline of our cup making the cup deeper and the projected price target breakout higher. You always want to consider on the left side of your cup, when charting your cup and handle, whether or not there are any potential candle tips above where you are charting that could eventually be the real rimline of the cup, and keep those in mind if these kind of fake breakouts occur so you know exactly where to readjust your top trendline. Anytime you see these potential higher spots on the left side of the cup it's always wise to have a good temporary exit strategy because once you readjust the line to fit the higher candle tip on the left, you want to do it right around the time that the top of the cup has just finished forming, that way you know you can short and that some dipping in price will have to ensue in order for the handle to form, because since the new top of the cup has just been found the handle has actually not formed yet. The 2 best places to enter a position during the formation of the handle are 1. at the bottom of the handle which is usually going to be around about half the price of whatever the projected breakout price target will be, or 2. right after it breaks upward out of the handle and starts heading towards the neckline. When trying to guess where the bottom of the handle will be, keep in mind that valid cup and handle patterns handles do not dip further down than half the size of the cup, also let a few candles on the handle develop first to get an idea of the trajectory its following...once you have that take those trendlines to about half the cup and handles breakout price target is set at and odds are good you will be able to buy in very close to the bottom of the handle for optimal profits. Waiting till it breaks out of the handle is also a good strategy as well because, you don't have to spend as much time in the consolidation period as buying at the bottom of the handle which can leave you waiting quite awhile for the handles breakout to occur sometimes. The good thing about these fakeouts, is you can still make profit on them during the fakeout, and if you know what to look for you can then turn around and exit those positions until the bottom of the real handle and then continue to make profit on them. This fake out can happen multiple times on one cup as well. ..but if you know what to look for you'll be prepared & only make profits off both the fakeouts & the real breakout. Thanks for reading and good luck!
Breakouts
XVG - 15m ChartTwo possibilities we can see on the 15 min chart.
1. A triple bottom reverse pattern for the up side.
OR
2. A descending triangle for a break further down.
Open for comments & constructive criticism.
Thanks
GBPCAD Still Finding Support We last posted on the GBPCAD on March 23rd when price had pulled back to a pivot support level.
5 days on and we can see there has been little change in price. However, the positive that we can take from this is that this pivot support level is holding strong.
If we look at the structure of the trend from January when priced bounced off the daily 200SMA, we can see that breather areas and pullbacks are a feature of this trend. This is why allowing a trend to establish itself is, in fact, very useful as it not only confirms a direction to the market but it also tells you want kind of trend structure you are dealing with.
If it is a fast moving trend, then we enter and compound in a particular way.
If it is a slow moving trend, then we enter and compound in a very different way.
The GBPCAD still very much has a bullish bias to it but there are times when we apply patience and wait for price to dictate a trend continuation in the form of a breakout. This is a perfect example.
We are still waiting for the March high to be broken, just as we were on last blog on March 23rd. As long as this pivot support level holds strong, and price stays above 1.8000, the chances of a breakout to the upside are very much in our favour.
Patience for now.
Any comments or questions, do not hesitate to leave them below. Hit agree if you share our sentiments!
Sublime Trading
USDJPY - short opportunityHi, friends.
USDJPY is in down trend. Daily main-balance goes down.
We must to use this possibility and open only sell position.
The longer consolidation was, the further trend will go. So the main target - 100.
But you must remember - if false break out happens and the price will return back into the balance and breaks out level 109.25 you need to close position immediately.
1hr bear flag tries a fakeout finds support inside bear flag?not a good sign to see what appeared like it was going to be a bullish breakout of the bear flag not get a follow up confirmation candle and instead turn into a fakeout falling well back under the bearflgs closest red trendline...I thought it may be breakind down under the bearflag too but now the current 1 hr candle is making it appear like the bottom trendline should be lower making the already suspiciously to skinny bear flag slightly wider and more like a normal bear flag length...just as the bull flag got wider at it's bottom now too does the bear flag. We do not wanna close the current 4 hpur below the bottom green trendline of the bull flag and we hope to see the new lower bearflag bottom trendline continue to be validated...for now I'm neutral but am putting a fractional stop loss 3-4 pips under the red bear flag should a breakout to the downside occur. A very fractional one since we are above the 50sma and in a buyers market...not a sellers market....this is only my methods and not financial advice...thanks for reading.
TWE Simple AnalysisThis is my first published idea so be kind. Always appreciate feedback.
This is not financial advise, just my thoughts and opinions.
TWE is looking good after a brief period of consolidation around the 17 mark.
It has rising volume and is showing signs of a good move up early next week. Today the price moved well above the recent consolidation zone (see chart). Today's volume is still a little low for me to say it is a confirmed breakout.
All indicators showing an upward trend (see chart).
I will be keeping an eye on this one next week and if it continues it's move up with good volume I will be going long on TWE.
Happy hunting,
John
EUR/CHF sell updateEchf came to my first take profit which is the pitchfork at 1.618 extension of wave 1. If you did sell this breakout nice. TP half and slide stop loss on rest to 50% of this wave. It can continue to just drive down, but if you see a corrective pattern like I have marked up (about) 38% of wave look to sell again to top of diagonal where I have marked. If it breaks fork and extends this wave past the fib extension it just rejected, then that should better better confirmation that we have a downtrend in place. Hopefully it corrects and gives another sell entry. It is possible it reaches top of fork one more time, but I will not buy this unless it actually confirms an uptrend... That was a LONG consolidation it broke out of. Want to learn something about corrective patterns watch my echf video. Hopefully you saw the EJ sell setup this morning and you caught chf/jpy sell. I couldn't post earlier.
AST Looking ripe for blastoff!Been following AST last two days...been very lucrative...watch for breakout on 15min.
EURUSD - Heavily bearish hidden with all the positive dataThis is my "personal views" please do not take my view as trading advice unless you are willing to lose it all.
I usually consider myself finding contrarian trends right before they settle in. I am sensing EURUSD is testing the resistance line after the breakout back in October. Earlier this was tested in November but failed to go above.
If we can stay below 1.2350 - 1.24 for the rest of this and next month then I can see a strong pullback first near 1.15 then a retracement to sub 1.19-1.20 area before giving up to all the way 1.07-1.05 where the weekly gap is still open.
This trend may complete by year end but I think this year is of USD Bulls and a bad start is to shake the confidence of the retail traders only.
3-4 Interest rate rise is given this year and Tax change shall take the $DXY, USDJPY nearly 5-10% from current levels and EURUSD should correct 10-15% and give up entire gains of 2017
TENX (PAY) Breakout TENX (PAY) has broken out with a nice volume spike. Im in and expect a nice move to be imminent....within 30 to 45 days away. TENX (PAY) has broken out with a nice volume spike. Im in and expect a nice move to be imminent....within 30 to 45 days away. BITTREX:PAYUSD
Second huge breakout coming for Ripple (XRP) soon?BITTREX:XRPBTC
Ripple is approaching near-pinpoint consolidation, just after its largest chart climb ever. This chart represents only the XRP/BTC value, but other pairings are showing a similar pattern. Chart comparisons with other XRP pairings could prove useful in demonstrating the same trend. Solid resistance is tested on a steady downward slope from the peak at 0.000195 BTC and confirmed just below 0.000180 and again at 0.000160. All signs seem to point to an even bigger breakout, maybe within just a few hours, with solid baseline support above the 0.000150 level. Alternatively, these indicators might just point to a longer period of sideways trending, meanwhile building stronger support along the way.
ETH/USD Pair has Broken Out of Consolidation - target is 1000+ETH/USD has moved up strongly higher on 11/22 and 11/23. A traditional chart analysis based upon historical patterns reveals a triangle consolidation pattern that now appears to be breaking out. Using a log chart and measuring the depth of the consolidation pattern, ETH/USD now has a projected target in excess of 1000.00 USD. This is using a tried and true method for measuring targets that takes the depth of the consolidation area (in red) and uses the SAME length line to measure the target from the point of breakout.
This could also be viewed as large channel, with the first leg taking ETH/USD from the mid teens to 400 - followed by the consolidation (a 'corrective wave') and now the next leg up begins. If this channel were to remain as such, the 1000+ target is nowhere near the upper line of resistance. This could get very interesting.
Someone say hi to Jamie Dimon for me.
Broke out and is pulling back to supportAPF broke out a few weeks ago and is now pulling back to support. Will it go higher?